Latest news with #KosSamaras
The Guardian
28-06-2025
- Politics
- The Guardian
‘Real people, real families': Coalition signals dramatic shift away from anti-immigration rhetoric of Dutton era
The federal opposition will adopt a more empathetic approach to migrants that seeks to emphasise people's positive contribution to Australia, says the new shadow immigration minister, Paul Scarr, drawing a line under the harsh anti-immigration rhetoric deployed under Peter Dutton. Scarr, who is also shadow minister for multicultural affairs, told Guardian Australia it is a 'profound tragedy' that Chinese, Indian and other diaspora communities have abandoned the Liberals at the past two elections, as in his view, their values should naturally align with the party's core principles. His comments come as the pollster and former Labor strategist Kos Samaras says that to have any hope of winning those voters back, the Coalition would need to abandon an approach to multicultural Australia that acted 'like we are still living in 1996'. 'They have hard-baked a brand that they are not a political party that likes people who have come to the country over the past 15 or 20 years,' Samaras says. Immigration was one of the Coalition's main priorities under Dutton, who promised dramatic cuts to permanent migration and net overseas migration as he sought to directly link a post-pandemic influx of people to the housing supply and affordability crisis. The future of those policies is up in the air as the Liberals, now led by Sussan Ley, review their entire agenda after the election defeat. But one thing Scarr has immediately committed to is a new tone when talking about migrants, signalling a dramatic shift from the sort of inflammatory language associated with Dutton's immigration agenda. At various points during the previous term, Dutton – who has a long history of comments attacking refugees and asylum seekers – called for a temporary ban on people from Gaza coming to Australia and floated the idea of a referendum on deporting dual citizens who committed serious crimes. Sign up for Guardian Australia's breaking news email Without reflecting on his former leader, Scarr says empathy would drive his approach to the immigration debate. 'One of the things I am passionate about is getting the tone of discussion right – I think that is of critical importance,' Scarr says. 'And any discussion of immigration must proceed, in my view, on the basis of the contribution that's been made to this country by so many people who have come to this country as migrants. 'So [when] we talk about immigration, we talk about numbers in a macro sense, but we should never forget that we're actually talking about real people, real families who have different, varying experiences.' The Queensland senator traces his commitment to multiculturalism to his pre-politics career as a lawyer, working in Papua New Guinea and later for a mining company with interests in Laos, Chile, Myanmar and Thailand among other countries. Scarr says he was aware of how hurtful 'loose', 'harsh' or 'clumsy' comments from politicians could be for migrant communities, and put the onus on his colleagues to be 'ever-mindful' of their language. He says it is hard to rebuild bridges if there is a lack of trust or a disconnect between politicians and communities. Multicultural communities were among voter groups to abandon the Coalition at the past two elections, with Chinese voters, for example, swinging heavily to Labor in seats such as Chisholm, Aston and Menzies in Melbourne and Bennelong and Reid in Sydney. 'It is a profound tragedy that we're currently in this situation where there is that disconnect,' Scarr says. 'The values of so many members of the multicultural communities are absolutely aligned with the values of the Liberal party, in terms of reward for effort, in terms of individual freedoms – because in many cases people have fled countries where they're deprived those freedoms – and in terms of the importance of the family unit.' Sign up to Breaking News Australia Get the most important news as it breaks after newsletter promotion Scarr has no immediate explanation of why migrant communities had deserted the party but suggests the Coalition's political opponents had been able to successfully weaponise public statements to tarnish their image. Labor seized on Jane Hume's 'Chinese spies' claim in the dying days of the federal election campaign, circulating a video message featuring Penny Wong speaking in Mandarin to voters on the social media app WeChat. Yun Jiang, at the University of Technology Sydney Australia-China Relations Institute, says the Liberal party has traditionally 'appealed' to many Chinese migrants who come on skills visas, set up small businesses in Australia and are socially conservative. But she says it will be 'difficult' for the Liberals to regain the support of the Chinese community, and that they will need to 'tone down their language' on China. 'The Liberals' [2022 election] postmortem said they need to be more mindful of language, but clearly, at the end of the last election campaign … they seemed to forget the lessons they had written down themselves,' she says. 'They [the Coalition] would need to be much more careful about their language around the threat of China, and especially on Chinese [people] being portrayed as spies or nefarious actors influencing the Australian political landscape … I think they also need to tone down the constant talk of war.' Samaras, who now works for research firm RedBridge, says it will take years for the Liberals to rebuild support among multicultural communities. The task is electorally critical, given the party's diminished numbers in parliament as well as the rapid growth in the Chinese and Indian diasporas, particularly in the outer suburbs of Melbourne. 'When we speak to them [voters in focus groups] and they walk through their values, which are all about wealth accumulation, aspiration, small business – these people should be, culturally, Coalition voters,' Samaras says. 'But then we ask them why they are not, [and] their answer is pretty blunt: 'They don't like us'.' Scarr accepts the assessment. 'Every single day between now and election day, and in fact, every single day after I was elected, I do everything I can to change and recalibrate those perspectives,' he says.
News.com.au
14-05-2025
- Politics
- News.com.au
‘We'll win sooner or later': Legalise Cannabis Party has high hopes after surprise election result
It was an election of big winners and losers, with one fringe party quietly pulling off its biggest results of the campaign. The Legalise Cannabis Party had a nearly 30-fold jump in the number of first preference votes in the House of Representatives, securing more than 164,000 votes compared to just 6025 three years ago. Once seen as a niche protest group, it's now pulling support from across the political spectrum and putting pressure on the major parties to take notice. Legalise Cannabis Party The Legalise Cannabis Party is a single issue party focusing on the legalisation of cannabis for personal, medicinal and industrial uses in Australia. It is strongly 'anti-big pharmaceutical'. Election analysts said contrary to what might be expected, the Legalise Cannabis Party's success may have come from the conservative side of politics. 'Legalise Cannabis draw some support from the left, but they also compete to a degree with One Nation,' election analyst and political commentator Dr Kevin Bonham said. 'They tend to do better in sort of not the inner cities, but regional kinds of areas out of suburbs. Queensland's dispersed population, they tend to do better as a result of that.' Redbridge pollster Kos Samaras said in the recent Queensland state election, the party 'did well in the outer suburbs of Brisbane'. 'And [in that election] it probably soaked up most of Labor's haemorrhaging'. 'It depends on who's doing the haemorrhaging, whether Legalise Cannabis picks up those votes. On this occasion, I think they probably soaked up more of the Coalition vote than anyone else's,' Mr Samaras said. The party ran in 41 lower house seats compared to one at the 2022 election and despite failing to pick up a seat, the Legalise Cannabis Party had received 447,818 first preference Senate votes at the time of writing with a projected +0.02 swing. Legalise Cannabis president Michael Balderstone said the party received half a million votes in the Senate last election. 'That will be the more interesting number to look at [than the House of Representatives] because I would expect that to go up another half again [this time],' he told from the party headquarters in Nimbin. 'So that's a fair few Australians giving Legalise Cannabis their number one vote. I just hope Albo with his new big tick of approval will take us a bit more seriously and maybe do something this time.' According to Australian Institute of Health and Welfare 2022-23 data, cannabis continues to be the most widely used illicit drug in Australia, 41 per cent had used cannabis in their lifetime and 11.5 per cent of people had recently used it. Mr Balderstone said it was 'inevitable, we'll win sooner or later'. 'It's only an amount of time until it gets legalised, it's just about moving that train along,' Mr Balderstone said. 'I think people need to accept that drug use is a health issue and the people who are getting busted and the people who are using illegal drugs are just the traumatised, troubled people in our society and our jails are full of them. It's not helping anyone, really. 'It might look impressive for voters, the law and order stuff, but people aren't so stupid. They know what's going on and if people are nonviolent, I don't know why we're locking them up for trying to get some relief.' In 2022-23 almost one in four (23 per cent) people aged 20-29 had used cannabis in the previous 12 months. Mr Balderstone said the party may have outgrown its Nimbin roots but the real battleground lay in reducing the stigma around cannabis use. 'The party's gone way past Nimbin and possibly the image of stoner hippies is not ideal for us, but not a lot of people want to put their hand up and say, yeah, we smoke cannabis because the stigma is still huge, whereas you know hippies in Nimbin are expected to smoke weed,' he said. 'So the stigma is still a big factor, but I think slowly fading, but that's the big job; to get people to accept and understand that cannabis users are just ordinary people who have discovered a plant that doesn't give them a hangover, takes away their trauma, gives them a good night's sleep and as you don't smoke with tobacco, has minimal health implications.' A Breakdown Labor may have won the night, securing a majority government and a second term for Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, but Australia's political map is being redrawn – from the fringe to the future, minor parties are quietly stealing the show. Around six million people, or one in three voters, now put the number 1 next to independents or minor parties. Labor won its thumping victory off a primary vote of 34.7 per cent – only 2 per cent higher than in 2022 – while the Coalition received 32.2 per cent. That means the combined vote for independents and minor parties, at 33.1 per cent, will likely surpass that of one of the majors for the first time in nearly 70 years. 'The number of Australians who voted for something other than the major parties is following the usual trajectory, which is increasing in size proportionately,' Redbridge's Kos Samaras told 'We know that among them, the majority is made up of people who are generally younger. Gen Z, for example, have the lowest levels of what we will define as values [or] connections to any political party in this country, and so are more likely to choose something other than the majors.' The success of the minor parties generally depends on which of the major parties are haemorrhaging more votes. Labor votes are likely to go to parties like the Greens, Legalise Cannabis or Fusion. Liberal votes tend to go to parties like One Nation, Trumpet of Patriots or Family First. With the Liberal Party projecting the largest recorded swing of the election at negative 3.01 per cent, the more conservative fringe parties would be expected to soak up the majority of those votes – and some have to a certain extent. We went through the biggest shockers from the minor party swings to see what political direction Australians are leaning. Trumpet of Patriots Trumpet of Patriots is a right wing party taken over by Clive Palmer in February after he was unable to re-register the United Australia Party for the election. Their policies centre around 'reducing government intrusion in our lives, breaking the [Labor/ Liberal] duopoly' and stopping 'the erosion of our Australian values and identity' according to their website. Gone but not forgotten, no he's not dead but after a political campaign characterised by annoying text messages and through the roof advertising it's looking like Clive Palmer's political aspirations finally may be. When your model is based on Donald Trump and the Australian people tell you consistently that they hate Donald Trump it's amazing they did as well as they have. At the time of writing AEC Tally room has Trumpet of Patriots at 336,242 votes with a +2.33 swing. Many on the conservative side of Australian politics were critical of Mr Palmer's late addition to the election for dividing a pool of voters that may have better been united. Gerard Rennick of the Gerard Rennick People First party believes the estimated $60 million Mr Palmer spent on his campaign was 'wasted' after the party failed to pick up a single seat in the House of Representatives. 'We didn't need to have Clive coming in at the last minute with the new party,' Mr Rennick said. 'You know, the money, it was wasted, certainly didn't help either. 
Not good, not good at all. And I know Clive says he's left politics for good, I'll believe it when I see it. 
The problem is he comes back in the last five minutes every time.' Dr Bonham said Trumpet of Patriots recorded less than half the votes the United Australia Party got in the last election 'partly because they didn't run in every seat.' Trumpet of Patriots did not respond to this masthead's request for comment. Gerard Rennick People First Gerard Rennick has been a senator since 2019, he resigned from the Liberal National Party in 2024 after he was dumped from preselection in an internal ballot. He then formed the Gerard Rennick People First party, whose key policies include lower income tax, flexible childcare and voluntary superannuation. Senator Rennick joined forces with Katter's party for the senate vote where in Queensland they received 129,493 first preference votes with a +4.71 swing. Mr Rennick told he was 'extremely happy' with how they went. 'In terms of Queensland, I think we did very well for a new party that's only been around for four months. 
We didn't really put a lot of effort into the other states because we didn't have the time and the resources and the money. 'But, you know, we're sitting at 4.7, actually, 4.74-75 with next to no mainstream media attention, next to no money. 
But we did have an excellent ground game in terms of the support we got from our volunteers. So, yeah, I'm extremely happy with how we went.' David Pocock David Pocock is an independent senator and former rugby union player for Australia, his key policies revolve around cost-of-living, housing and climate action. He is also the only Australian politician whose weight is listed on their Wikipedia bio (trim 115kg but geez he's looking good). Senator Pocock was re-elected on a 99,213, 18 per cent swing in his Canbera electorate, the biggest in the country and an almost doubling of his vote. Mr Pocock told he was 'extremely humbled' by the support from the people of ACT at this election after three years of 'working hard and pushing for more ambition on the issues they care about'. 'The primary vote for community-backed Independents more broadly surged this election, surpassing 1 million primary votes in the lower house and demonstrated a slightly bigger swing [2.1 per cent] than towards Labor [2.09 per cent]. 'What I hear from people is that they want to see more ambition and a government with the courage to tackle the root causes of the big challenges we face, from housing to climate action. 'They want representatives who put them and their best interests first, ahead of vested interests on things like gambling, lobbying, tax concessions on property, reform on higher education and getting a fair return on the sale of our resources.' Mr Pocock said these issues have an 'outsized impact' on young people and that in part was a driver behind more young people supporting independent candidates like himself. 'Social media has definitely had a huge impact on election campaigns, we've seen some big money spent there too, over $39 million at last count but I expect that tally to grow. What we really need to see is the parliament prioritise passing truth in political advertising legislation and regulating the use of Artificial Intelligence in high risk settings, including electoral matters. 'I don't think anyone expected Labor to pick up so many seats and I think while the Government clearly has a mandate they need to also be really mindful of the message voters sent by the record independent vote. Early post-election polling has confirmed people across Australia want to see bolder, more urgent action on things like health and housing.' One Nation One Nation is a right wing party founded and run by Pauline Hanson, the party denies the existence of climate change, and denounces economic rationalism and globalisation. They recorded 750,537 first preference Senate votes with a +1.33 swing. Dr Bonham said the result represented a win for One Nation but not one as large as the polls predicted. 'One Nation are up, but not as much as the polls were suspecting they would be. They've still done quite well, but they got 6.3 per cent, whereas a lot of the late polls had them around about 8 per cent.' Senator Hanson declined to comment extensively however told she 'is pleased with the increase in support for One Nation'. Family First Family First is a conservative Christian party whose policies revolve around opposing abortion, euthanasia and LGBT advocacy. According to their website Family First 'exists to restore Australia by restoring the primacy of the family in public policy'. They recorded 197,649 first preference Senate votes with a +1.48 swing. Dr Bonham said the name 'Family First' name has always been a 'low information voter magnet' but that because of electoral reforms parties could no longer be elected off of a misleading name. 'Some party names do seem to catch clueless voters. Animal justice is another one. 
It's often surprising in elections, how many people you see who put Animal Justice Party first and Shooters, Fishers and Farmers second. So there is some confusion with some of these party names. But it's not a huge thing. 
And the benefit of our new system that came in from 2016, you can no longer get elected off 1 per cent of the vote by having a misleading name. It doesn't work that way anymore.' Fusion Party The Fusion party is the combination of Planet Rescue, Whistleblower Protection and Innovation parties. They recorded 37,321 first preference Senate votes with a negative 0.06 swing. President of the Fusion party Drew Wolfendale told the result was disappointing but didn't necessarily reflect the progress the party had made. 'Well look, we made a lot of important progress this election. Not all of that was reflected in votes, but I mean, it was a very interesting election with a lot of stuff that happened. I think everyone was surprised by the election results in a number of ways.' 'One could argue that we got sabotaged by a few different things as well in this election, but that didn't stop us from making an impression in a few areas that we were quite happy to have made an impression on. 'There were a few other things like Build-a-Ballot, which saw a lot more attention in this election. 
A lot more people used various tools to try and work out what they thought was appropriate to them. And we had two different issues where somewhere along the line, something got changed or misreported and we only found out after a week that we'd been being misrepresented by one of these tools quite heavily to several thousand people in some cases.' 'There were two particular ones where we were listed as being against free speech in one of them, which was definitely not appropriate.' Mr Wolfendale endeavoured to keep the party out of the culture wars and believes it was helpful in winning people over. 'I think the one thing that really stands out to me is that the culture wars are increasingly the domain of a group of people who are frustrated more than they're against things rather than for things. And that's been very eye-opening in this election. 
We in many ways tried to stay out of them, and we got quite a few interested people based on the fact that we weren't spouting rhetoric on that front. I think the Liberals learned a lesson that they leant on that too hard and all that did was drive people away from them in both directions. There's a certain subset of people who really care about the culture war, but no one who is involved in the culture war is actually working on solutions. 
And I think that really stood out in this election that people didn't give a s**t. They want solutions and that's what they're there for. And I will swear on that point.'
Sky News AU
06-05-2025
- Politics
- Sky News AU
Polling numbers analysed to understand what ‘motivates' Australians' votes
RedBridge Group Director Kos Samaras analysed polling numbers of the federal election recapping key events which 'shaped" the campaign for both parties. 'We know that the external events, particularly around Trump, had a very profound impact on the body politic of this country,' Mr Samaras told Sky News host Paul Murray. Mr Samaras claimed looking 'deep' into the data provides a 'good picture' as to what motivates Australians' voting preferences.
Sky News AU
05-05-2025
- Politics
- Sky News AU
Leading pollster reveals which group of Australian voters abandoned the Coalition ahead of the 2025 federal election landslide
RedBridge Group Director Kos Samaras has explained which age group of Australian voters largely swung to Labor in the 2025 federal election. The Liberal Party suffered a catastrophic defeat on Saturday, with the Labor Party winning at least 87 seats in the lower house. The ALP, along with the Greens, will also likely dominate the upper house. Mr Samaras told Sky News host Peta Credlin Australians born between 1965 and 1980, known as Generation X - which has historically favoured the Coalition - abandoned the party in the two months leading up to election day. 'In our key seats track, we did a bit of an analysis to work out who did the coalition lose over a period of eight weeks, and they were largely people in their 40s and 50s who were renting and had a mortgage in the outer suburbs and regions of this country," Mr Samaras said. 'Then we did further analysis and tried to work where they're preferencing and we found out pretty early on they were going to Labor. 'So that bleed was pretty horrific for the Coalition. I think that was the death knell for the Coalition in a lot of seats that haemorrhaged over a period of eight weeks and then the preferences (went) to Labor." Liberal-held seats in outer metropolitan regions across the country are set to fall by half, from 14 to seven, and the party has likely only secured one inner city seat, being the Cook electorate in Sydney. Consequently, the Liberal Party could elect its first leader from a regional seat since 1975, with more than 80 per cent of its seats now outside capital cities. 'To regain these electorates will take a long time because there are some demographic mountains they need to climb,' Mr Samaras said. 'It's not impossible. We can see that in Goldstein that Tim Wilson is about to get elected there, but it's a long, long road ahead. And overcoming that and having to balance that.' Mr Wilson is currently just 95 votes behind Teal Independent Zoe Daniel, with 79 per cent of ballot papers counted. But postal votes are swinging heavily to the former Liberal MP.
Sky News AU
05-05-2025
- Politics
- Sky News AU
‘Totally different': Where the Voice failed and Labor succeeded in the election campaign
RedBridge Group Director Kos Samaras discusses the 'totally different' emotional responses to the Voice referendum failure and the return of an Albanese Labor government. 'The referendum is one thing, voting for the next government of Australia is a totally different matter and people have a totally different emotional response to it,' Mr Samaras said. Mr Samaras sat down with Sky News host Peta Credlin to go over how polling was off the mark during the federal election campaigns.
