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Time of India
3 days ago
- Business
- Time of India
Stick to large-caps, disciplined asset allocation: 4 top mutual fund managers reveal how investors can navigate on-going stock market volatility, global uncertainty
Sankaran Naren,ED & CIO, ICICI Prudential AMC Academy Empower your mind, elevate your skills Nilesh Shah,MD, Kotak Mahindra AMC Nimesh Chandan,CIO, Bajaj Finserv AMC Chirag Mehta,CIO, Quantum AMC India is not at the epicentre of the current geopolitical tensions, so the direct impact has been relatively limited. Of course, if tensions were to spike significantly—particularly if crude oil prices were to surge—it could have a negative effect on our markets. So far, we have seen crude prices spike and then cool off. Our overall investment framework over the past 20 months has focused around diversification and asset allocation. This has worked well in volatile market conditions, and we haven't found the need to change our basic core are currently in a moderate return environment across asset classes. Initially, we thought that gold and silver had significant return potential—and they have delivered strong returns. But looking ahead, we find it difficult to identify any one asset class that could deliver outsized returns. Even Indian equities, which did outperform earlier, are now delivering more moderate returns, in line with our expectations from a couple of years ago. At present, it is challenging to pinpoint any one asset class with big return potential in the near is the time to take a balanced approach. Instead of concentrating only on high-risk areas, investors should consider large-cap or flexi-cap strategies, and maintain a sound asset allocation plan. Expectations also need to be realigned— from the high returns seen between 2020 and 2024, to more moderate returns going forward. That's why we are strong proponents of hybrid strategies and also believe in SIP investing in flexi- and large-cap oriented tensions add volatility , but many stocks offer a margin of safety via strong growth and reasonable valuations. Ignore the noise and focus on the fundamentals. There are events happening in geopolitics at a rapid pace and accelerated scale which are unpredictable. There is no way we can position our portfolio for every global event. We can only respond to such an event. Our focus is on long term outlook. We focus on building portfolios of companies which are growing faster and which are available on reasonable conviction in consumer discretionary, driven by tax rebates, lower EMI burdens, and the Eighth Pay Commission . Also, we are favouring stocks which can deliver above-expectation growth at reasonable to disciplined asset allocation: buy cheap, sell expensive. At the current stage, we prefer large-cap equities at fair value, Gilts with over 7% yield for carry or performing credit AIFs, and gold in precious metal. More importantly we expect moderate returns in all asset classes over two to three things stand today, we are not worried about any significant negative impact of the Middle-east tensions on India. The Brent Crude price, which may impact inflation and input prices for some companies, has corrected. As far as positioning is concerned, even before these events, we have been positive and overweight on domestic sectors. So we continue with the top down research starts with identifying mega trends that can impact economies, businesses and companies. We look for opportunities where the valuations have not completely discounted a particular mega trend, and we look to invest in those areas. If there is a significantly large theme which is positively impacted by mega trends, we launch a separate fund for the same. Currently, we have only two such funds: Consumption and Healthcare Sector wise we are positive on BFSI, Consumption, Industrials and Healthcare . We are bullish on Indian equity market and believe that Indian markets provide a strong case for growth and diversification to global investors. There is a diverse pool of sectors contributing to the overall profit pool thereby reducing earnings volatility. Valuations have corrected in the last one year and many pockets are attractively is a good diversification in investment portfolios. However, after a sharp run up in the last two years, a near term correction in prices cannot be ruled out. Typically, when global uncertainty reduces, demand for safe havens like gold also geopolitical events have remained region-specific or short-lived, with limited impact on India's markets. Two key metrics to watch out for are the rising crude oil prices and defence spending, which could divert funds from growth and social initiatives. Unless there's a significant rise in either, India's growth trajectory is unlikely to be are generally the flavour of the season, but India's core structural theme lies in its potential for 6.5–7% real GDP growth. This translates into rising per capita income and evolving consumption patterns that significantly benefit underpenetrated sectors. Broadly, India's long-term secular themes revolve around domestic consumption, infrastructure, and market remains one of the few where economic growth translates into strong returns. As a result, it trades at a premium to peer emerging markets. However, following some price and time correction, valuations have moderated—large caps are now near long-term averages, while mid- and small-caps still appear expensive. Our strongest convictions lie in BFSI, consumer discretionary (such as autos), and the current geopolitical uncertainty, gold remains a vital portfolio diversifier. Rising deficits and unsustainable debt—likely to worsen under Trump's policies like the 'one big beautiful bill'—are eroding confidence in the US economy. This could weaken the dollar and support gold prices.
Time of India
24-06-2025
- Business
- Time of India
Stocks Feel the West Asia Heat, But Don't Boil Over
Indian equities retreated Monday after the US risked its own billion-dollar-plus military assets to pound subsurface Iranian nuclear sites over the weekend, but the broadest gauges erased initial losses to end about half a percent lower following modest gains in crude oil prices . 'Markets will closely watch for further escalation in West Asia that could affect oil supply and pricing,' said Nilesh Shah, MD, Kotak Mahindra AMC. 'It will be fair to assume the risk aversion will rise with escalation and will have an adverse impact on markets.' The Sensex shed 511.36 points, or 0.6%, at 81,896, while the Nifty declined 140.50 points, or 0.5%, to settle at 24,670. Technology bellwethers Infosys, HCL Technologies and TCS, which together account for the second biggest Nifty weighting, fell 1-3% and led the decliners. The technology pack drifted after the revenue guidance by Accenture, the world's largest services company by market value, fell short of market expectations. Rupee, Hedging Costs Hold Steady9 Both indices, which fell as much as 1% earlier in the day, erased a portion of the losses on expectations that the Iranian response to the US strikes would not be severe. Tehran's threat that it would block the Strait of Hormuz —a critical route for the global oil trade—has raised both the geopolitical risk quotient and investor caution for emerging markets susceptible to fuel price fluctuations. The measured advance in oil prices on Monday reflected market expectations of a restrained reaction by Iran to the US attacks. Brent crude futures rose 0.8% to $77.60 a barrel after opening above $80. Bonds—from US Treasuries to European securities—weakened on concerns higher oil prices could raise inflationary pressures. Gold futures advanced 0.2% at $3,393.40 per ounce in New York. 'Recent events suggest the US and Israel have established airspace dominance and inflicted significant damage on Iran's ability to counter-attack,' said Mihir Vora, CIO, Trust AMC. 'As a result, it may not be easy to disrupt the sea-traffic movement in the Gulf.' Vora said as long as oil stays within the $65-86 range, India can manage the volatility. 'Only if it spikes to extreme levels—like $100-120—can oil create problems,' he said. Elsewhere in Asia, most markets ended weak. Japan fell 0.1%, South Korea declined 0.2%, Indonesia dipped 1.7% and Taiwan dropped 1.4%. China and Hong Kong rose 0.7% each. The pan-Europe index Stoxx 600 closed 0.28% lower. The pan-Europe index Stoxx 600 was down 0.26% when this report was going into publication. At home, the Nifty Midcap 150 index rose 0.4%, while the Nifty Smallcap 250 advanced 0.8%. Of the total 4,240 stocks traded on the BSE, 2,198 declined and 1,862 advanced. The India VIX—the market's fear gauge—rose 2.74% to 14.05, indicating elevated nervousness among traders.
Time of India
24-06-2025
- Business
- Time of India
Equities decline amid US-Iran tensions and rising oil prices
Mumbai: Indian equities retreated Monday after the US risked its own billion-dollar-plus military assets to pound subsurface Iranian nuclear sites over the weekend, but the broadest gauges erased initial losses to end about half a percent lower following modest gains in crude oil prices. "Markets will closely watch for further escalation in West Asia that could affect oil supply and pricing," said Nilesh Shah, MD, Kotak Mahindra AMC. "It will be fair to assume the risk aversion will rise with escalation and will have an adverse impact on markets." The Sensex shed 511.36 points, or 0.6%, at 81,896, while the Nifty declined 140.50 points, or 0.5%, to settle at 24,670. Technology bellwethers Infosys , HCL Technologies and TCS , which together account for the second biggest Nifty weighting, fell 1-3% and led the decliners. The technology pack drifted after the revenue guidance by Accenture, the world's largest services company by market value, fell short of market expectations. Agencies VIX Rises 2.7% Both indices, which fell as much as 1% earlier in the day, erased a portion of the losses on expectations that the Iranian response to the US strikes would not be severe. Tehran's threat that it would block the Strait of Hormuz -a critical route for the global oil trade-has raised both the geopolitical risk quotient and investor caution for emerging markets susceptible to fuel price fluctuations. The measured advance in oil prices on Monday reflected market expectations of a restrained reaction by Iran to the US attacks. Brent crude futures rose 0.8% to $77.60 a barrel after opening above $80. Bonds-from US Treasuries to European securities-weakened on concerns higher oil prices could raise inflationary pressures. Gold futures advanced 0.2% at $3,393.40 per ounce in New York. "Recent events suggest the US and Israel have established airspace dominance and inflicted significant damage on Iran's ability to counter-attack," said Mihir Vora, CIO, Trust AMC. "As a result, it may not be easy to disrupt the sea-traffic movement in the Gulf." 'No Oil Shock Yet' Vora said as long as oil stays within the $65-86 range, India can manage the volatility. "Only if it spikes to extreme levels-like $100-120-can oil create problems," he said. Elsewhere in Asia, most markets ended weak. Japan fell 0.1%, South Korea declined 0.2%, Indonesia dipped 1.7% and Taiwan dropped 1.4%. China and Hong Kong rose 0.7% each. The pan-Europe index Stoxx 600 closed 0.28% lower. The pan-Europe index Stoxx 600 was down 0.26% when this report was going into publication. At home, the Nifty Midcap 150 index rose 0.4%, while the Nifty Smallcap 250 advanced 0.8%. Of the total 4,240 stocks traded on the BSE, 2,198 declined and 1,862 advanced. The India VIX-the market's fear gauge-rose 2.74% to 14.05, indicating elevated nervousness among traders.
Economic Times
23-06-2025
- Business
- Economic Times
How will US strikes on Iran affect Indian markets this week?
Agencies Live Events (You can now subscribe to our (You can now subscribe to our ETMarkets WhatsApp channel Mumbai: Indian equities may face pressure early this week after the US launched strikes on three nuclear sites in Iran late Saturday, escalating tensions in the Middle East. A sharp rise in oil prices and a possible shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran could weigh on sentiment and trigger a gap-down opening on Nifty and Sensex had closed about 1.3% higher on Friday, recouping losses made in the last three sessions on a relief rally sparked by US President Donald Trump putting on hold a plan that may have led to the US involvement in the Israel-Iran conflict. The latest flip flop by the US threatens to reverse that optimism."The market will respond to how Iran manages the situation," said Amit Khurana, head of equities at Dolat Capital Market. "If tensions flare up again, the impact could be sharply negative."Oil prices are poised to surging past $80 a barrel on Monday in response to the conflict in the region after wild swings during the previous week. Brent crude futures for August declined 2.3% to $77 a barrel on Friday as any supply disruption through the Strait of Hormuz--through which 40% of oil and over half of India's LNG imports pass-could trigger a price spike. India relies on imports for over 90% of its crude and 54% of its LNG needs."Oil prices crossing triple digit or restricted supply will have an adverse impact on the market," said Nilesh Shah, managing director, Kotak Mahindra AMC. "Global factors from Trump policy to oil prices and supply are boiling hot."The unease around the flare up in the Middle East and Trump's volte face on Iran could weigh on market nerves. "The direction depends on whether we have peace or further escalation in the Middle East," said Sham Chandak, head of institutional equities at Elios Financial Services. He expects the Nifty to move between 24,500 and 25,500 for the rest of June."The US's pre-emptive strikes on Iran could potentially incapacitate the country. If we do not see further escalation overnight, the war may be over soon-and markets will obviously cheer in such a situation."
Time of India
23-06-2025
- Business
- Time of India
How will US strikes on Iran affect Indian markets this week?
Agencies Live Events (You can now subscribe to our (You can now subscribe to our ETMarkets WhatsApp channel Mumbai: Indian equities may face pressure early this week after the US launched strikes on three nuclear sites in Iran late Saturday, escalating tensions in the Middle East. A sharp rise in oil prices and a possible shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran could weigh on sentiment and trigger a gap-down opening on Nifty and Sensex had closed about 1.3% higher on Friday, recouping losses made in the last three sessions on a relief rally sparked by US President Donald Trump putting on hold a plan that may have led to the US involvement in the Israel-Iran conflict. The latest flip flop by the US threatens to reverse that optimism."The market will respond to how Iran manages the situation," said Amit Khurana, head of equities at Dolat Capital Market. "If tensions flare up again, the impact could be sharply negative."Oil prices are poised to surging past $80 a barrel on Monday in response to the conflict in the region after wild swings during the previous week. Brent crude futures for August declined 2.3% to $77 a barrel on Friday as any supply disruption through the Strait of Hormuz--through which 40% of oil and over half of India's LNG imports pass-could trigger a price spike. India relies on imports for over 90% of its crude and 54% of its LNG needs."Oil prices crossing triple digit or restricted supply will have an adverse impact on the market," said Nilesh Shah, managing director, Kotak Mahindra AMC. "Global factors from Trump policy to oil prices and supply are boiling hot."The unease around the flare up in the Middle East and Trump's volte face on Iran could weigh on market nerves. "The direction depends on whether we have peace or further escalation in the Middle East," said Sham Chandak, head of institutional equities at Elios Financial Services. He expects the Nifty to move between 24,500 and 25,500 for the rest of June."The US's pre-emptive strikes on Iran could potentially incapacitate the country. If we do not see further escalation overnight, the war may be over soon-and markets will obviously cheer in such a situation."
