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Mint
a day ago
- Business
- Mint
Nifty 50, Sensex today: What to expect from Indian stock market in trade on July 23 after Nikkei, Hang Seng rally
The Indian stock market benchmark indices, Sensex and Nifty 50, are likely to open higher on Wednesday, tracking a rally in global markets. The trends on Gift Nifty also indicate a positive start for the Indian benchmark index. The Gift Nifty was trading around 25,158 level, a premium of nearly 65 points from the Nifty futures' previous close. On Tuesday, the domestic equity market ended flat with negative bias amid high volatility, with the benchmark Nifty 50 holding above 25,000 level. The Sensex eased 13.53 points, or 0.02%, to close at 82,186.81, while the Nifty 50 settled 29.80 points, or 0.12%, lower at 25,060.90. Here's what to expect from Sensex, Nifty 50 and Bank Nifty today: Sensex is still holding a lower top formation on daily charts and has also formed a bearish candle, which indicates temporary weakness. 'We believe that the current market texture is non-directional; hence, level-based trading would be the ideal strategy for day traders. For traders, the 82,200 mark or the 50-day SMA (Simple Moving Average) would be the key support zone. As long as Sensex trades above this level, a pullback formation is likely to continue. On the higher side, 82,800 and the 20-day SMA or 83,100 would be the key resistance areas for the bulls,' said Shrikant Chouhan, Head Equity Research, Kotak Securities. On the flip side, a breach of 82,200 could push Sensex towards 81,900, and further downside may also continue, which could drag the index down to 81,500. On the derivatives front, the highest Call Open Interest (OI) for Nifty is seen at the 25,100 strike, followed by 25,200, indicating potential resistance at these levels. On the Put side, the highest OI is placed at 25,000, followed by 24,900, highlighting strong support zones. This OI setup indicates that the 25,000 – 25,200 range will be crucial for Nifty's near-term directional move, with traders closely watching for a breakout or breakdown from this zone, said Hardik Matalia, Derivative Analyst - Research at Choice Equity Broking. Nifty 50 formed a bearish candle on the daily chart, with a large body and minor wicks on the higher and lower sides, reflecting a lack of follow-through strength. 'A reasonable negative candle was formed on the daily chart at the highs which indicates lack of strength in the market to sustain the highs. Nifty 50 reversing down after one day of bounce back is not a good sign. Smaller degree bearish pattern like lower highs and lows continued on the daily chart and the Nifty 50 seems to have reversed down after a small lower high at 25,182 on Tuesday,' said Nagaraj Shetti, Senior Technical Research Analyst at HDFC Securities. According to him, the underlying trend of Nifty 50 continues to be weak amidst choppy movement. 'Having rejected the hurdle of 25,200, the chances of Nifty 50 sliding below 24,900 is likely in the coming session. On such an event, the downside target could open around 24,500 for the coming weeks. Immediate resistance is placed at 25,200,' said Shetti. Sudeep Shah, Head - Technical and Derivatives Research, SBI Securities noted that in the last six trading sessions, the Nifty 50 has failed to sustain above its 20-day EMA on four occasions, highlighting strong overhead supply at crucial moving average. 'For any meaningful upside to unfold, a decisive and sustained move above the 20-day EMA will be crucial. The momentum indicators and oscillators are suggesting sideways action. Going ahead, the 20-day EMA zone of 25,170 - 25,200 will act as an immediate hurdle for the index. Any sustainable move above the level of 25,200 will lead to a sharp upside rally upto the 25,350 level. While on the downside, the zone of 24,980 - 24,950 will act as crucial support for the index,' Shah said. VLA Ambala, Co-Founder of Stock Market Today said that the Nifty 50 index formed a bearish marubozu candlestick pattern on the daily time frame, suggesting strong selling pressure and a potential downward trend. 'We can expect Nifty 50 to find support between 24,950 and 24,800, and meet resistance near 25,150 and 25,270 in today's trading session,' Ambala said. Bank Nifty index declined 196.75 points, or 0.35%, to close at 56,756.00 on Tuesday, forming a dark cloud cover pattern on the daily chart. 'Bank Nifty index closed below the 20-day EMA, signalling short-term weakness, however still holding above the 50-day SMA, which offers interim support near 56,200. The RSI stands at 51.48 and has started to diverge negatively from recent highs, indicating that strength is fading. The MACD skewed on the lower side, suggesting the slowing momentum. The daily Super trend support is placed around 55,800, and any breakdown below this zone could add further weakness to the ongoing consolidation,' said Om Mehra, Technical Research Analyst, SAMCO Securities. According to him, until Bank Nifty reclaims 57,300 on a closing basis, upside moves may remain limited. The bullish momentum seems to be waning; a cautious stance would be preferred in the short term. Going ahead, Sudeep Shah believes the zone of 57,200 - 57,300 will act as an important hurdle for the Bank Nifty index, while on the downside, the zone of 56,400 - 56,300 will act as crucial support. Disclaimer: The views and recommendations made above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, and not of Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.
The Hindu
2 days ago
- Business
- The Hindu
Amidst cooling down markets, August may throw up a challenge, say experts
The VIX index, which measures the volatility of Indian markets fell to a 15-month-low of 11.2 points, opening the week at a more certain and a cooler pace. As fears have allayed, analysts say that August may turn up more challenging for the Indian bourses. The volatility index closed the lowest since April 26 2024, when the index was at 10.925. A lower value in the index is an indicator of cooler markets. Markets have also been calm for the better part of July 2025, weathering the Jane Street storm. 'Markets have already factored U.S. tariffs and low corporate earnings. VIX can increase slightly in the last week of July,' said Shrikant Chouhan, Head of Research at Kotak Securities. The current state of calm is not surprising, says Akshay Chinchalkar, Head of Research at Axis Securities. 'If one examines the data from the last decade, the average value for the India VIX has been around 17. One standard deviation below the mean is approximately 10.6. This is the level at which the fear index has shown a tendency to bottom out. Secondly, if one looks at July, 90% of the time in the last 10 years, it has ended lower with an average decline of 1.7 points. So, it is not at all surprising that the gauge has largely fallen this month,' said Mr. Chinchalkar. 'In August, however, it tends to do the opposite – it has risen in eight out of 10 years for the month with an average jump size of 1.6 points. Since the VIX and the Nifty tend to move in different directions most of the time, seasonally speaking, August could present investors with some challenges. The tariff deadline is the first of August, so that can be the catalyst that drives up volatility,' Mr. Chinchalkar added.
Mint
3 days ago
- Business
- Mint
Nifty 50, Sensex today: What to expect from Indian stock market in trade on July 21
The Indian stock market benchmark indices, Sensex and Nifty 50, are likely to open flat on Monday, tracking mixed global market cues. The trends on Gift Nifty also indicate a muted start for the Indian benchmark index. The Gift Nifty was trading around 25,019 level, a discount of nearly 13 points from the Nifty futures' previous close. On Friday, the domestic equity market ended lower, with the benchmark Nifty 50 slipping below 25,000 level. The Sensex tanked 501.51 points, or 0.61%, to close at 81,757.73, while the Nifty 50 settled 143.05 points, or 0.57%, lower at 24,968.40. Here's what to expect from Sensex, Nifty 50 and Bank Nifty today: Sensex, on daily and intraday charts, is holding lower top patterns, and on weekly charts, it has formed a bearish candle, which is largely negative. 'We believe that the short-term market texture is weak, but a fresh sell-off is possible only after the dismissal of 81,600. Below this level, Sensex is likely to retest the levels of 80,700 - 80,400. On the flip side, the 50-day SMA (Simple Moving Average) or 82,100 and 82,300 would act as crucial resistance zones for short-term traders,' said Amol Athawale, VP-technical Research, Kotak Securities. He believes if Sensex manages to trade above 82,300, it could bounce back to the 20-day SMA or 83,000, while further upside potential could lift the index up to 83,400 - 83,600. Nifty 50 witnessed sharp weakness and closed the day lower on July 18, forming a reasonable negative candle on the daily chart, which indicates an attempt of downside breakout of the immediate support. 'The bullish chart pattern like higher tops and bottoms seems to have been negated and we observe the beginning of bearish chart pattern like lower tops and bottoms formation on the daily chart. The recent swing high of 25,255 could now be considered as a new lower top of the pattern,' said Nagaraj Shetti, Senior Technical Research Analyst at HDFC Securities. According to him, the underlying trend of Nifty 50 remains weak, and a slide below 24,900 levels could open more weakness down to 24,500 in this week. However, any pullback rally from here could find strong overhead resistance around 25,250. Om Mehra, Technical Research Analyst, SAMCO Securities noted that for the first time in several sessions, Nifty 50 closed below its 50-day SMA, and there was also a negative crossover between the 9-EMA and 20-EMA, signalling a potential shift in short-term momentum. 'While the broader trend remains upward, the near-term outlook has shifted to cautious. Unless Nifty 50 reclaims 25,240 and sustains above the short-term moving averages, the trend may remain weak. Currently, a shift from a buy-on-dip stance to a more selective sell-on-rise approach would be preferred for the next few sessions,' said Mehra. Sudeep Shah, Head - Technical and Derivative Research, SBI Securities highlighted that on the weekly chart, Nifty 50 formed a bearish candle with a lower high and lower low's structure — a classic indication of downward momentum. Throughout 'The zone of 24,940 - 24,900 will act as immediate support for the Nifty 50 index as it is the confluence of the 50-day EMA level and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of its prior upward rally (24,473 - 25,669). If the index slips below the 24,900 level, then the next crucial support is placed at the 24,700 level. On the upside, the zone of 25,130 - 25,160 will act as an immediate hurdle for the index,' Shah said. VLA Ambala, Co-Founder of Stock Market Today said that on technical charts, Nifty 50 established a very bearish pattern on the daily time frame and a 'three black crows' formation on the weekly chart. 'In this situation, I suggest maintaining a 'sell on rise' strategy until we reach key support levels. Considering these aspects, we can expect Nifty 50 to gather support between 24,750 and 24,680, and face resistance near 25,100 and 25,170 in today's market session,' Ambala said. Bank Nifty ended 545.80 points, or 0.96%, lower at 56,283.00 on Friday, and declined 0.83% for the week. 'Bank Nifty broke its short-term swing low which was around 56,590 and formed a red candle on both the daily and weekly charts, signalling weakness. The next major support for the Bank Nifty is placed near 55,940, where 50-DEMA is placed followed by 55,150, while on the upside, 57,280 will act as strong resistance. As long as the index remains below 57,280, short-term traders are advised to adopt a sell-on-bounce strategy,' said Hrishikesh Yedve, AVP Technical and Derivative Research, Asit C. Mehta Investment Interrmediates Ltd. Pravesh Gour, Senior Technical Analyst at Swastika Investmart Ltd. noted that the Bank Nifty index slipped below its 20-day SMA and upward trendline, indicating a loss of short-term momentum. 'Bank Nifty has turned the 56,900 at 20-SMA act as an immediate resistance. If the index sustains below this, it may test crucial support at 56,150 and 55,500 in the coming week. A breakdown below these levels could extend the decline towards 55,000 – 54,800. However, a close above 56,900 may trigger short-covering, pushing the index back towards 57,200 – 57,500,' said Gour. According to Puneet Singhania, Director at Master Trust Group, the broader trend remains intact with support from the 55-day EMA and the ascending trendline. 'Key support is placed at 56,000; a decisive break may lead to 55,500. On the upside, 56,700 acts as immediate resistance, and a breakout above this could reignite buying interest, targeting 57,100. Traders are advised to adopt a buy-on-dips approach near key support levels while maintaining caution amid prevailing market volatility,' said Singhania. Disclaimer: The views and recommendations made above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, and not of Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.
Mint
7 days ago
- Business
- Mint
Trump's tariffs: What market trading strategy should investors adopt amid uncertainty?
Stock market today: Indian equity benchmark indices - Sensex and Nifty - began Thursday's session on a flat note, following subdued sentiment in Asian markets amid investor unease over the uncertain future of US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. As of 9:19 am, the BSE Sensex had gained 33 points, or 0.04%, reaching 82,668, while the Nifty50 inched up by 8 points, or 0.03%, to 25,230. Markets continue to remain in a cautious trading zone, awaiting concrete Q1 earnings data to gauge real economic momentum, while uncertainty around Trump's tariff-related statements continues to fuel volatility. ' Any earnings disappointment could increase downside pressure. In such an environment, traders should prioritize disciplined execution, employ strict stop-losses to avoid large drawdowns, and diversify positions across sectors or asset classes to reduce specific risks,' said Prashanth Tapse, Sr VP Research Analyst at Mehta Equities Ltd. According to Tapse, the undertone in Nifty remains strong, with every dip being bought into. ' A decisive close above 25,350 will likely confirm continued strength and open the path for further upside. However, if Nifty closes below 25,080, there is a risk of testing the 50-day DMA near 24,950. A sustained trade below this level could lead to deeper corrections,' Tapse said. Meanwhile, Shrikant Chouhan, Head of Research - Equity, Kotak Securities, believes that market's volatility within a narrow range is a healthy sign, hinting at a corrective phase of the recent uptrend from 24,500 to 25,650. ' With value buying emerging, the focus should remain on quality stock selection while maintaining active participation at every level. Technically, a close above 25,500 may open the gates to 26,000, while a break below 25,000 could dampen near-term sentiment,' Chouhan said. Prashanth Tapse of Mehta Equities recommend short-term traders to find opportunities in volatility by capitalizing on small price moves and booking profits or losses swiftly. Meanwhile, long-term investors should view market dips as opportunities to accumulate high-quality companies with strong balance sheets and consistent earnings visibility. On the other hand, Anuj Gupta, Director, Ya Wealth Research & Advisory, advises investors should trade with strick stoploss levels in the volatile market. ' Generally in the volatile market, prices goes elsewhere, trend not clear. So generally in that case the chances of stoploss triggered very can go with less quantity positions. Firstly they should calculate important key levels to enter and exit. Timing of the market is always very important. One should keep eyes on sectoral or individual stock to trade based on its fundamental values. They can also us hedging strategy by using option trading to protect the position and limit the losses,' Gupta said. Disclaimer: This story is for educational purposes only. The views and recommendations above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, not Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.
Mint
7 days ago
- Business
- Mint
Nifty 50, Sensex today: What to expect from Indian stock market in trade on July 17
The Indian stock market benchmark indices, Sensex and Nifty 50, are likely to open flat-to-positive on Thursday, tracking mixed global market cues. The trends on Gift Nifty also indicate a mildly positive start for the Indian benchmark index. The Gift Nifty was trading around 25,275 level, a premium of nearly 30 points from the Nifty futures' previous close. On Wednesday, the domestic equity market ended flat with a positive bias, with the benchmark Nifty 50 closing above 25,200 level. The Sensex gained 63.57 points, or 0.08%, to close at 82,634.48, while the Nifty 50 settled 16.25 points, or 0.06%, higher at 25,212.05. Here's what to expect from Sensex, Nifty 50 and Bank Nifty today: Sensex formed a small candle on the daily charts and range-bound intraday activity, indicating indecisiveness between the bulls and bears. 'We believe that 82,300 will act as a key support zone for traders. As long as Sensex trades above this level, the bullish sentiment is likely to continue. On the higher side, the index could bounce back to the 20-day SMA (Simple Moving Average) or 83,000. Further upside may also push the index up to 83,600,' said Shrikant Chouhan, Head Equity Research, Kotak Securities. Conversely, he believes, below 82,300, the sentiment could change, and if Sensex slips below this level, it could decline toward the 50-day SMA or the 82,000 - 81,800 zone. In the derivatives segment, Nifty open interest (OI) data showed the highest call writing at the 25,300 and 25,400 strike prices, while the maximum put OI was concentrated at the 25,200 level. 'This positioning suggests strong resistance near the 25,500 zone. Nevertheless, the overall market sentiment remains cautiously optimistic, and a decisive close above this resistance level will be crucial to sustain the bullish momentum in the near term,' said Hardik Matalia, Derivative Analyst - Research at Choice Equity Broking. Nifty 50 ended above the 25,200 level and formed a doji candle on the daily chart, indicating indecision in the market. 'A small green candle was formed on the daily chart with minor upper and lower shadow. Technically, this market action indicates a doji or high wave type candle pattern which signals a confusion state of mind among participants at the lower levels. This also signals a presence of volatility in the market,' said Nagaraj Shetti, Senior Technical Research Analyst at HDFC Securities. According to him, the underlying short-term trend of Nifty 50 remains positive, and a sustainable move above the immediate hurdle of 25,250 could pull Nifty 50 towards the next hurdle of 25,550 levels in the near term. Immediate support is placed at 25,000 levels. Dr. Praveen Dwarakanath, Vice President of noted that the Nifty 50 index is at its immediate resistance at the 25,200 level, a break of which can take the index towards the 25,500 level. 'The options writer's data shows similar puts and calls writing at the 25,200 level of the present week's expiry, indicating a range-bound move in the index. The ADX DI+ and ADX DI- lines are closing each other, also indicating a range-bound move in the index,' said Dwarakanath. VLA Ambala, Co-Founder of Stock Market Today expects the Nifty 50 to gather support between 25,150 and 25,040, and face resistance near 25,400 and 25,320 in today's session. Bank Nifty index continued to outperform the frontline indices and ended 162.30 points, or 0.28%, higher at 57,168.95 on Wednesday, forming a doji candle with shadows in either direction, signaling consolidation amid stock specific action. 'Bank Nifty is now trading comfortably above both its short-term and long-term moving averages, reinforcing its bullish undertone. Adding to the strength, the daily RSI is on the verge of crossing the 60 mark and remains in a rising trajectory — a positive sign for momentum traders,' said Sudeep Shah, Head - Technical and Derivatives Research, SBI Securities. According to him, the zone of 57,400 - 57,500 will act as an immediate hurdle for the Bank Nifty index, while any sustainable move above the 57,500 level will lead to a sharp upside rally upto the level of 58,100, followed by 58,600 in the short term. While on the downside, the zone of 56,900 - 56,800 is likely to provide a cushion in case of any immediate decline. Hrishikesh Yedve, AVP Technical and Derivative Research, Asit C. Mehta Investment Interrmediates Ltd. noted that the Bank Nifty index formed a bullish engulfing candle on the daily chart, indicating strength. 'The short-term hurdle for Bank Nifty is placed in the 57,360 – 57,370 zone, while 21-DEMA is positioned near 56,775, which will act as immediate support. Short-term traders are advised to wait for a breakout above 57,370 to initiate the next round of upmove,' Yedve said. Disclaimer: The views and recommendations made above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, and not of Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.
