Latest news with #LEI
Fibre2Fashion
2 days ago
- Business
- Fibre2Fashion
Australia's LEI up 0.3% in May, outlook mixed: TCB
The Conference Board's (TCB) Leading Economic Index (LEI) for Australia rose by 0.3 per cent in May 2025 to 114.1 (2016=100), following a 0.6 per cent gain in April. While this marks the second consecutive monthly increase, the LEI's six-month growth slowed to 0.3 per cent (November 2024–May 2025), down sharply from the 1.3 per cent expansion in the previous period (May–November 2024). 'The LEI for Australia increased again in May. All components, except sales to inventory ratio in non-farm sector and rural goods exports, contributed positively to the Index. Overall, the annual growth rate of the LEI continued to strengthen in May after turning positive in April,' said Allen Li, associate economist at The Conference Board. Meanwhile, the Coincident Economic Index (CEI)—which tracks current economic conditions—edged up by 0.1 per cent in May to 117.7, after a 0.3 per cent rise in April. The CEI posted a 0.6 per cent gain over the latest six-month period, also decelerating from 1.2 per cent in the preceding half-year. 'Following a lackluster 0.2 per cent q/q GDP growth in Q1 2025, The Conference Board expects Australia's real GDP to strengthen somewhat and to grow by 1.4 per cent overall in 2025,' Li added. Australia's LEI rose 0.3 per cent in May 2025, signalling continued growth but at a slower six-month pace of 0.3 per cent, down from 1.3 per cent. Most components contributed positively, except non-farm inventory sales and rural exports. The CEI rose 0.1 per cent, with six-month growth easing to 0.6 per cent. The Conference Board expects 1.4 per cent GDP growth for 2025 after a weak Q1. Fibre2Fashion News Desk (HU)
Fibre2Fashion
6 days ago
- Business
- Fibre2Fashion
Germany's economy shows signs of rebound as LEI rises 0.8% in May
The Conference Board (TCB) Leading Economic Index (LEI) for Germany increased by 0.8 per cent in May 2025 to 87.7, more than reversing a decline of 0.3 per cent in April. Over the six-month period from November 2024 to May 2025, the LEI for Germany grew by 0.6 per cent, a partial recovery from the 0.8 per cent contraction over the previous six-month period, from May to November 2024. The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index (CEI) for Germany was unchanged in May 2025 at 103.6, after ticking down by 0.1 per cent in April. Over the six-month period between November 2024 and May 2025, the CEI for Germany experienced a slight 0.1 per cent increase, reversing the 0.1 per cent decline over the previous six-month period, The Conference Board said in a press release. 'In May, the LEI for Germany registered its strongest monthly increase in 5 years,' said Allen Li, associate economist at The Conference Board. 'Stock prices and consumer confidence, which pulled back in April, rebounded following easing trade tensions from the temporary pause on US tariffs. In addition, new orders for investment goods made a significant positive contribution, most likely supported by the announced fiscal stimulus plan. The LEI annual rate has improved continuously since the beginning of 2024, suggesting lessened headwinds to economic growth ahead. The Conference Board currently projects a mild recovery in Germany with real GDP reaching 0.5 per cent in 2025, after contracting slightly in the past two years.' Germany's Leading Economic Index rose by 0.8 per cent in May 2025 to 87.7, its strongest monthly gain in five years, signalling easing economic headwinds. The rebound was driven by improved stock prices, consumer confidence, and investment orders. The Coincident Economic Index remained flat. The Conference Board projects a mild recovery, with Germany's real GDP expected to grow by 0.5 per cent in 2025. Fibre2Fashion News Desk (SG)
Fibre2Fashion
01-07-2025
- Business
- Fibre2Fashion
China's leading index falls again in May, but recession risks ease
The Conference Board's (TCB) Leading Economic Index (LEI) for China fell by 0.3 per cent in May 2025 to 148.9, marking its second consecutive monthly decline. The LEI dropped 1.2 per cent over the six-month period from November 2024 to May 2025, though this was a smaller contraction than the 1.6 per cent recorded in the preceding six months. The continued decline was attributed to weakening consumer expectations, a soft logistics prosperity index, and a drop in new export orders. China's Leading Economic Index (LEI) fell 0.3 per cent in May 2025, signalling continued economic headwinds from weak consumer expectations, logistics, and export orders. However, recession risks have eased. The Coincident Economic Index (CEI) rose 0.4 per cent. The Conference Board forecasts China's 2025 real GDP growth to remain resilient at 4.5 to 5 per cent. 'The China LEI decreased again in May . Much like previous months, the main drivers of the decline in the LEI were weaknesses in consumer expectations, the logistics prosperity index, and new export orders. Both the semi-annual and annual growth rates of the LEI remained negative, continuing to suggest challenges ahead,' said Malala Lin, economic research associate at The Conference Board. 'However, the 6-month growth rate has become less negative and no longer signalled recession risks since February 2025, despite the persisting weakness among the underlying components of the LEI.' 'Furthermore, it is expected that the de-escalation of the China-US tariffs tensions and the implemented monetary policies will help mitigate risks to growth going forward. Overall, The Conference Board currently forecasts annual real GDP growth to remain resilient, between 4.5 per cent to 5 per cent in 2025,' added Lin. In contrast, the Coincident Economic Index (CEI), which reflects current economic conditions, rose by 0.4 per cent in May to 152.8. This follows a sharp 0.8 per cent drop in April. The CEI grew 0.9 per cent between November 2024 and May 2025—substantially slower than the 3 per cent gain observed in the prior six-month period. Despite ongoing weakness in key sectors, The Conference Board maintains a cautiously optimistic forecast, projecting China's real GDP growth to remain resilient at between 4.5 and 5 per cent for 2025. Fibre2Fashion News Desk (SG)
Fibre2Fashion
27-06-2025
- Business
- Fibre2Fashion
India's LEI rises, CEI slumps in May amid mixed economic signals
India's economic outlook showed mixed signals in May 2025. The Leading Economic Index (LEI), which signals future economic activity, rose by 0.4 per cent to 160.5, following an upwardly revised 1.2 per cent increase in April, according to The Conference Board. Over the six-month period from November 2024 to May 2025, the LEI grew by 1.2 per cent—an improvement from the 0.2 per cent increase seen in the prior six months, as per the latest data from The Conference Board. India's LEI rose 0.4 per cent in May 2025, following a 1.2 per cent gain in April, indicating improving future economic prospects, according to The Conference Board. Over six months, the LEI grew 1.2 per cent. However, the CEI, reflecting current conditions, fell 5.7 per cent in May. India's GDP is expected to grow by around 6.3 per cent in 2025, supported by financial momentum. In contrast, the Coincident Economic Index (CEI), which reflects current economic conditions, fell sharply by 5.7 per cent in May to 147.6, more than reversing April's 5.3 per cent gain. The CEI contracted by 2.4 per cent over the latest six-month period, compared to a 0.6 per cent decline in the previous half-year, indicating ongoing weakness in real-time economic performance. 'The LEI for India increased in May, after being heavily revised upward in April . Financial variables drove the Index in May, with the largest positive contribution coming from a second month of rising stock prices. The merchandise export declined in May after surging in April,' said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, senior manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board. 'Thanks to the two consecutive monthly gains in the leading index, its six-month growth moved higher into positive territory, implying that the growth tailwinds are likely to last in the second half of 2025. Therefore, and taking also into account the stronger than expected gross domestic product (GDP) growth in Q1 and the recent easing of monetary policy, The Conference Board forecasts that India's real GDP will grow at about 6.3 per cent in 2025, only slightly slower than in 2024.' Fibre2Fashion News Desk (SG)
Newsweek
23-06-2025
- Business
- Newsweek
US Economic Outlook Remains Dark as Major Forecast Sees Sixth Straight Drop
Based on facts, either observed and verified firsthand by the reporter, or reported and verified from knowledgeable sources. Newsweek AI is in beta. Translations may contain inaccuracies—please refer to the original content. The United States' economic outlook continues to deteriorate despite some positive developments, according to the Conference Board's latest Leading Economic Index (LEI). On Friday, the D.C. think tank announced that the index had declined a further 0.1 percent in May. While this is less steep than the 1.4-percent drop recorded in April, it marks the sixth consecutive monthly decline in the LEI, which has contracted by 2.7 percent over this period. Why It Matters The LEI is a widely consulted indicator when assessing the health of the U.S. economy, and significant declines have in the past been correlated with periods of significant economic downturn. Recession fears have tempered in recent weeks, owing to a pause in the U.S.-China trade dispute and a recovery in the stock market. However, as noted in the Federal Reserve's recent decision to hold off on interest rate cuts, the effects of President Donald Trump's tariffs could prove a drag on future growth, and Americans still anticipated a prolonged battle with inflation. What To Know The only marginal decline in the LEI was attributed to an outsize drop in April, during which businesses, consumers and investors reacted with unease to the announcement of Trump's "Liberation Day" tariffs. Major stock indexes have rebounded since this shock, with all now trading above or near their levels prior to April 2. However, the Conference Board noted that this "strong rebound" was not sufficient to offset the other metrics incorporated into the LEI, such as low consumer expectations for business conditions and persistently weak demand for manufactured goods. President Donald Trump speaks to reporters on the South Lawn of the White House on June 18, 2025. President Donald Trump speaks to reporters on the South Lawn of the White House on June 18, 2025. Brendan Smialowski/AFP via Getty Images Last week, the Federal Reserve decided to once again hold off on interest rate cuts, keeping these at 4.25 to 4.5 percent. In its announcement, the Federal Open Market Committee—the branch responsible for setting monetary policy—stated that it would continue to assess risks and work toward its 2 percent inflation target. At a press conference following the announcement, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said that the U.S. economy was "in solid shape," but warned of "very high uncertainty" due to the impact of tariffs. "Everyone that I know is forecasting a meaningful increase in inflation in coming months from tariffs," he said, "because someone has to pay for the tariffs." What People Are Saying Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, senior manager of Business Cycle Indicators at The Conference Board, said: "The LEI for the US fell again in May, but only marginally. The recovery of stock prices after the April drop was the main positive contributor to the Index. However, consumers' pessimism, persistently weak new orders in manufacturing, a second consecutive month of rising initial claims for unemployment insurance, and a decline in housing permits weighed on the Index, leading to May's overall decline. "With the substantial negatively revised drop in April and the further downtick in May, the six-month growth rate of the Index has become more negative, triggering the recession signal." What Happens Next The Conference Board warned that the six consecutive drops have now pushed the index into the range that typically signals an imminent recession. However, it has held off on this prediction and currently anticipates only a "significant slowdown in economic growth" this year. Meanwhile, Powell said that the Federal Reserve is "well positioned to wait to learn more about the likely course of the economy before considering any adjustments to our policy stance."
