Latest news with #LLY
Business Insider
4 hours ago
- Business
- Business Insider
Eli Lilly (LLY) Bulls Prepare for Multiyear Upside
I recently bought shares of Eli Lilly & Co. (LLY), and while it might be a bit early to go all-in on healthcare, the stock is currently in a great position for accumulation. I expect LLY to build strong positive momentum in 2026, making the next six months an ideal window to steadily add to a position as we anticipate interest rate cuts and a pickup in economic growth. Elevate Your Investing Strategy: Take advantage of TipRanks Premium at 50% off! Unlock powerful investing tools, advanced data, and expert analyst insights to help you invest with confidence. One advantage of investing in LLY now is that, if the macroeconomy experiences a mild downturn in the second half of 2025, the stock is likely to hold up better than tech names, offering some protection against volatility until the next bull market takes off in 2026. Several factors are aligning for LLY stock, which puts me firmly in the Bullish camp. Key Near-Term Catalysts to Watch Eli Lilly is set to report earnings on August 7, 2025, with EPS expectations of $5.57—representing 43% year-over-year growth—and revenue forecast to rise 30% to almost $15 billion. Given the stock's premium valuation (with a P/E of 55 and P/S of 14), any earnings miss could pressure the stock further during its ongoing consolidation phase. That said, sentiment appears resilient, with shares trading sideways since November 2024—suggesting that even results in line with expectations may be enough to maintain stability until more impactful catalysts emerge. Looking ahead, late 2025 brings a major milestone: Eli Lilly plans to submit orforglipron for FDA approval. This oral GLP-1 weight loss drug has the potential to reshape the obesity treatment market and significantly lift investor sentiment once approved and commercially launched in 2026. Around the same time, or possibly early 2026, the company is also expected to release Phase 3 trial results for retatrutide—a promising 'triple-G' agonist that targets GLP-1, GIP, and glucagon receptors for potentially enhanced effectiveness. In 2026, the market launch of orforglipron will be the key event to watch, but Lilly is also positioning itself for long-term growth through a major manufacturing expansion in Indiana. This added capacity is expected to ease supply constraints and support strong, sustained revenue growth as demand accelerates. Eli Lilly's 14-week Relative Strength Index (RSI) currently sits at 47, suggesting the stock is trading at a relatively fair value. Shares have moved sideways for more than six months, staying below the 50-week moving average—a sign that the market sees further downside as unlikely for a company with such strong growth prospects. With capital flowing into tech and persistent macroeconomic concerns around interest rates and geopolitics, it's not surprising that investors are hesitant to make a decisive move on LLY for now. Still, the fundamentals remain strong. Consensus estimates project 35% normalized EPS growth in fiscal 2026, followed by a solid 25% in fiscal 2027. While that represents a moderation from the 70% EPS growth expected in fiscal 2025, it's still impressive—and a slowdown in growth doesn't imply a falling stock price. Rather, it typically leads to some compression in valuation multiples. Currently, Eli Lilly's forward P/E ratio stands at 35. If that multiple compresses to 30 over the next 18 months, and fiscal 2027 EPS comes in at $38.50 as projected, the stock would trade around $1,150 by December 2026. With shares currently at $775, that implies roughly 50% upside in this bull-case scenario—or about a 30% return over the next 12 months. Negative Revisions and FDA Delays Could Spark Trouble Novo Nordisk (NVO), Eli Lilly's biggest rival in the weight-loss drug space, recently lowered its guidance following the unexpected departure of its CEO. As a result, the broader obesity-treatment sector is facing short-term headwinds, with investors reassessing the long-term thesis. Despite this, demand for obesity-related treatments remains strong over the long run—and this moment of uncertainty could offer Eli Lilly a chance to strengthen its market position. I remain bullish and am looking past the near-term volatility in the stock. The most significant risk to Eli Lilly's stock going forward is delays in FDA approval for orforglipron and retatrutide. Such setbacks could prompt downward revisions to growth forecasts. However, I view this risk as relatively low. Eli Lilly has a strong track record of delivering under pressure and securing key regulatory approvals, including several in recent years. That said, orforglipron—a first-of-its-kind oral GLP-1—carries some added risk due to its novel delivery method. The same applies to retatrutide, a completely new 'triple-G' agonist targeting GLP-1, GIP, and glucagon receptors, which may attract greater FDA scrutiny and introduce potential approval delays. Is Eli Lilly a Good Stock to Buy? On Wall Street, Eli Lilly commands a consensus Strong Buy rating based on 17 Buys, two Holds, and zero Sells over the past three months. LLY's average stock price target is $1,028.80, indicating a ~35% upside potential over the next 12 months. Even the low estimate of $883 reveals a substantial 14% return from the present price of $775. Eli Lilly is unequivocally a Buy in my book, with a favorable valuation and very strong growth prospects. Picking the Right Time to Strike on Eli Lilly Eli Lilly is currently my largest portfolio holding, making up over 15% of my allocation. Like AI stocks, it offers exceptional growth potential—but with a far more attractive valuation at this stage. I remain bullish on Eli Lilly for at least the next 18 months and am eyeing a potential 50% gain by December 2026. With major catalysts like orforglipron, retatrutide, and anticipated interest rate cuts on the horizon, LLY is well-positioned for a strong rally in 2026.
Yahoo
a day ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Eli Lilly (LLY) Declines More Than Market: Some Information for Investors
In the latest trading session, Eli Lilly (LLY) closed at $762.95, marking a -5.59% move from the previous day. This change lagged the S&P 500's daily loss of 0.3%. On the other hand, the Dow registered a loss of 0.46%, and the technology-centric Nasdaq decreased by 0.38%. The drugmaker's shares have seen an increase of 3.67% over the last month, surpassing the Medical sector's gain of 0.76% and the S&P 500's gain of 3.64%. The upcoming earnings release of Eli Lilly will be of great interest to investors. The company's earnings report is expected on August 7, 2025. It is anticipated that the company will report an EPS of $5.61, marking a 43.11% rise compared to the same quarter of the previous year. In the meantime, our current consensus estimate forecasts the revenue to be $14.75 billion, indicating a 30.49% growth compared to the corresponding quarter of the prior year. For the full year, the Zacks Consensus Estimates are projecting earnings of $22.05 per share and revenue of $60.55 billion, which would represent changes of +69.75% and +34.43%, respectively, from the prior year. Any recent changes to analyst estimates for Eli Lilly should also be noted by investors. These latest adjustments often mirror the shifting dynamics of short-term business patterns. With this in mind, we can consider positive estimate revisions a sign of optimism about the business outlook. Empirical research indicates that these revisions in estimates have a direct correlation with impending stock price performance. To exploit this, we've formed the Zacks Rank, a quantitative model that includes these estimate changes and presents a viable rating system. Ranging from #1 (Strong Buy) to #5 (Strong Sell), the Zacks Rank system has a proven, outside-audited track record of outperformance, with #1 stocks returning an average of +25% annually since 1988. The Zacks Consensus EPS estimate has moved 0.48% higher within the past month. As of now, Eli Lilly holds a Zacks Rank of #3 (Hold). With respect to valuation, Eli Lilly is currently being traded at a Forward P/E ratio of 36.64. This indicates a premium in contrast to its industry's Forward P/E of 14.23. Also, we should mention that LLY has a PEG ratio of 1.15. This popular metric is similar to the widely-known P/E ratio, with the difference being that the PEG ratio also takes into account the company's expected earnings growth rate. The average PEG ratio for the Large Cap Pharmaceuticals industry stood at 1.24 at the close of the market yesterday. The Large Cap Pharmaceuticals industry is part of the Medical sector. At present, this industry carries a Zacks Industry Rank of 62, placing it within the top 26% of over 250 industries. The Zacks Industry Rank assesses the vigor of our specific industry groups by computing the average Zacks Rank of the individual stocks incorporated in the groups. Our research shows that the top 50% rated industries outperform the bottom half by a factor of 2 to 1. To follow LLY in the coming trading sessions, be sure to utilize Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report Eli Lilly and Company (LLY) : Free Stock Analysis Report This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research ( Zacks Investment Research
Reuters
a day ago
- Health
- Reuters
Mounjaro proves more heart protective than Trulicity in trial of Eli Lilly diabetes drugs
July 31 (Reuters) - Eli Lilly (LLY.N), opens new tab said on Thursday that its newer diabetes drug Mounjaro outperformed Trulicity, its previously top-selling medication for the disease, in reducing the risk of heart attack and stroke in a large, head-to-head study. In the Lilly-funded trial of more than 13,000 patients with type 2 diabetes and high cardiovascular risk, Mounjaro reduced the risk of major adverse heart events by 8% more than Trulicity, the Indianapolis-based drugmaker said. The risk of death from any cause was 16% lower for Mounjaro patients than for those taking Trulicity, though researchers are still studying the data to understand what is behind the difference. Mounjaro is the company's diabetes drug that targets the GLP-1 protein and is also used for weight loss. In the U.S., the obesity version is sold under the brand name Zepbound. Trulicity, which first won U.S. approval in 2014, has been a go-to treatment for preventing heart disease in people with diabetes since the Food and Drug Administration approved it for that use in 2020 following data showing a 12% reduction in heart-related risk. Once Lilly's top seller, Trulicity hit peak sales of $7.4 billion in 2022, aided by the added heart-related approval, according to the company. Mounjaro stole that mantle last year with $11.5 billion in sales, more than double Trulicity's $5.2 billion. Kenneth Custer, president of Lilly's cardiometabolic health division, told Reuters that the new results make Mounjaro an even stronger choice for patients. The new late-stage study, which spanned nearly five years, was the largest and longest trial yet for tirzepatide - the chemical name for Mounjaro - Lilly said. Custer said the company planned to submit its findings to the FDA later this year for an anticipated 2026 expanded approval. The company and Danish rival Novo Nordisk ( opens new tab have been racing for more than two years to prove their competing GLP-1 drugs, already shown to be powerful weight loss agents and diabetes treatments, can also be used to tackle other major diseases and potentially expand insurance coverage. Lilly has a similar study underway testing Zepbound as a treatment for heart disease in obese patients. The FDA approved Novo's rival drug Wegovy to treat heart disease in obese patients in March 2024. Zepbound has already been shown to reduce the risk of hospitalization, death and other adverse outcomes in a smaller study of obese adults with a common type of heart failure, although the FDA has yet to approve the drug for that indication. In diabetes care versus Novo's Ozempic, Mounjaro has captured more than half of the U.S. market share, while Zepbound accounts for just under 60% of its obesity segment in competition with Wegovy, according to IQVIA data shared with Reuters by an analyst. IQVIA did not respond to a request for confirmation. Mounjaro and Trulicity had similar safety profiles, according to the trial results, with most side effects being mild-to-moderate stomach issues that usually resolved after increasing the dose, Lilly said. The GLP-1 drugs are known to cause gastrointestinal issues and more participants stopped taking Mounjaro due to side effects (13.3%) than Trulicity (10.2%).
Yahoo
2 days ago
- Health
- Yahoo
Novo Nordisk Plunges 20% YTD: How Should Investors Play the Stock?
Novo Nordisk NVO shares have plunged 19.9% year to date, following a string of unfavorable outcomes, both pipeline and regulatory, that have led investors to bet against the company. The company reported disappointing data from two late-stage studies for its next-generation subcutaneous obesity candidate, CagriSema, a follow-up drug to Wegovy. In these studies, CagriSema demonstrated a lower-than-expected reduction in body weight, despite meeting the primary endpoints. Earlier, Medicare announced that it will not cover costly weight-loss drugs, including NVO's Wegovy (semaglutide), as obesity remains unclassified as a disease. Consequently, these medications, often viewed as cosmetic, may become less accessible to patients. Novo Nordisk is also currently facing a major transition in its executive management as CEO Lars Fruergaard Jørgensen will step down due to market headwinds and a decline in the company's stock since mid-2024. The search for his successor is currently underway. Moreover, Novo Nordisk faces intense competition from its arch-rival Eli Lilly LLY in the diabetes and obesity care market. LLY markets its tirzepatide injections as Mounjaro for type II diabetes (T2D) and Zepbound for obesity. Despite being on the market for less than three years, Lilly's Mounjaro and Zepbound have witnessed strong sales driven by rapid demand. Zepbound had earlier outperformed Novo Nordisk's Wegovy (20.2% compared with 13.7%, respectively) in a weight-loss head-to-head study. This could lead to a shift in patient preference from Wegovy to Zepbound, potentially resulting in a loss of market share. Lilly has also been taking significant strides in the development of oral therapies for obesity, effectively putting pressure on Novo Nordisk. In April 2025, LLY reported first phase III success for its oral GLP-1 candidate, orforglipron, in lowering blood glucose and promoting weight loss in T2D patients. Oral pills could boost adherence over injections. Additionally, NVO recently ended its collaboration agreement with Hims & Hers Health, which will temporarily hurt its objective of increasing Wegovy's patient access, resulting in a slowdown in obesity market share gain. However, not all is wrong at NVO. Novo Nordisk is making good progress with its pipeline, which includes several other new candidates for T2D and obesity. The company also has strong fundamentals, and the untapped nature of the obesity market makes us believe that the setback is temporary. Let's dig deeper and understand the company's strengths and weaknesses to understand how to play the stock after the recent price drop. Semaglutide - NVO's Growth Engine Novo Nordisk's success in recent years has been driven by its popular semaglutide-based GLP-1 products — Ozempic (injection) and Rybelsus (oral) for T2D, and Wegovy for obesity. The company holds a strong position in diabetes care, with one of the industry's broadest portfolios and a global diabetes market share of 33.3% as of March 2025, led by Rybelsus, Ozempic, and Victoza. It also dominates the GLP-1 segment with a 54% global market share. Wegovy is a major revenue driver, with first-quarter 2025 sales up 83% to DKK 17.4 billion on strong prescription growth. Ozempic also continues to boost overall revenues. To protect its lead amid competition from Lilly, Novo Nordisk is heavily investing in its GLP-1 manufacturing capacity. As of July 1, CVS Caremark, a major pharmacy benefit manager, has designated Wegovy as its preferred GLP-1 therapy for weight loss. Novo Nordisk is expanding semaglutide's reach through new indications. Wegovy is now approved for reducing major cardiovascular events, easing HFpEF symptoms, and relieving osteoarthritis-related knee pain in obesity. Ozempic's label includes use in T2D patients with cardiovascular and kidney disease. The FDA is reviewing Novo Nordisk's application for a 25 mg oral semaglutide for obesity, with a decision expected by year-end. NVO has also filed Rybelsus for cardiac event prevention in T2D and is studying semaglutide for liver disease. A 7.2 mg Wegovy dose, showing up to 25% weight loss in the STEP UP study, is under EU review. Label expansion is also being sought for Ozempic in treating peripheral artery disease in the United States and the EU. Beyond GLP-1s, Novo Nordisk is expanding into rare diseases, with regulatory plans for Mim8 (hemophilia A) and EU approval of Alhemo (hemophilia A/B with inhibitors). It also expects to file for semaglutide in metabolic dysfunction–associated steatohepatitis in both the United States and the EU in 2025. NVO Focuses on Next-Generation Drugs for Obesity Novo Nordisk is also developing several next-generation obesity candidates in its pipeline, especially targeting the lucrative U.S. market. The most advanced weight loss candidate in Novo Nordisk's pipeline is CagriSema, a fixed-dose combination of a long-acting amylin analogue and Wegovy. The company is already planning its regulatory submission in 2026. Novo Nordisk is also developing a small-molecule oral CB1 inverse agonist, monlunabant, in a mid-stage study. The company is currently gearing up to advance Amycretin, an investigational unimolecular GLP-1 and amylin receptor agonist, for weight management into late-stage development. The phase III program on amycretin is planned to be initiated during the first quarter of 2026. Recently, Novo Nordisk signed a $2.2 billion deal with Septerna for developing and commercializing oral small-molecule medicines for treating obesity, T2D and other cardiometabolic diseases. Competition Heating Up in the Obesity Space Competition in the obesity market is heating up as the obesity market is expected to expand to $100 billion by 2030, according to data from Goldman Sachs. Lilly and Novo Nordisk presently dominate the market. Several other companies like Amgen AMGN and Viking Therapeutics VKTX are also making rapid progress in the development of GLP-1-based candidates in their clinical pipeline. Amgen has begun a broad phase III program on its dual GIPR/GLP-1 receptor agonist, MariTide, across obesity, obesity-related conditions and T2D, with the first two phase III studies initiated in March. Viking Therapeutics' dual GIPR/GLP-1 receptor agonist, VK2735, is being developed both as oral and subcutaneous formulations for the treatment of obesity. Viking Therapeutics recently launched the late-stage VANQUISH program for subcutaneous VK2735 in obesity and T2D, following the initiation of the mid-stage VENTURE study on the oral version earlier this year. NVO's Stock Price, Valuation, Estimates In the past year, Novo Nordisk shares have lost 51.1% compared with the industry's 17% decline. The company has also underperformed the sector and the S&P 500 during the same time frame, as seen in the chart below. The stock is currently trading below its 50 and 200-day moving averages. NVO Stock Underperforms the Industry, Sector & the S&P 500 Image Source: Zacks Investment Research Novo Nordisk is trading at a premium to the industry, as seen in the chart below. Going by the price/earnings ratio, the company's shares currently trade at 16 forward earnings, which is higher than 15.12 for the industry. However, the stock is trading much below its five-year mean of 29.25. NVO Stock Valuation Image Source: Zacks Investment Research Earnings estimates for 2025 have improved from $3.85 to $3.98 per share over the past 60 days. During the same time frame, Novo Nordisk's 2026 earnings per share estimates have declined from $4.65 to $4.59. NVO Estimate Movement Image Source: Zacks Investment Research The stock's return on equity on a trailing 12-month basis is 80.95%, which is higher than 33.55% for the large drugmaker industry, as seen in the chart below. NVO Return on Equity Image Source: Zacks Investment Research Here's How to Play NVO Stock Novo Nordisk, currently carrying a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold), has the potential to boost shareholders' wealth in the future. Despite past pipeline and regulatory setbacks, along with the ongoing transition in leadership, we remain confident that NVO is a good stock to retain. The company operates in a lucrative market that is rapidly expanding. Its strong year-over-year revenues and profits, fueled by rising demand for Wegovy and Ozempic, suggest long-term potential. You can see the complete list of today's Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here. The company is actively working to expand the approved uses of its key semaglutide products, Wegovy, Ozempic, and Rybelsus, which could significantly increase the eligible patient pool and drive future revenues. However, Eli Lilly remains a formidable adversary in the obesity market space, which threatens NVO's market share. Hence, we can conclude that investors currently holding the NVO stock should not get spooked by the recent downtrend in the stock price. In fact, new Investors can use the current dip in the price to acquire the stock to enjoy significant value creation in the long run. Short-term investors are, however, advised to steer clear of the stock to avoid near-term volatility. Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report Novo Nordisk A/S (NVO) : Free Stock Analysis Report Eli Lilly and Company (LLY) : Free Stock Analysis Report Amgen Inc. (AMGN) : Free Stock Analysis Report Viking Therapeutics, Inc. (VKTX) : Free Stock Analysis Report This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research ( Zacks Investment Research Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Business Insider
5 days ago
- Business
- Business Insider
Europe Grants Limited Approval to Eli Lilly's (LLY) Alzheimer's Drug
The European Medicines Agency (EMA) has granted limited approval to Eli Lilly's (LLY) new Alzheimer's drug Kisunla, reversing an earlier decision to reject the drug over concerns of brain swelling and bleeding in patients. Elevate Your Investing Strategy: Take advantage of TipRanks Premium at 50% off! Unlock powerful investing tools, advanced data, and expert analyst insights to help you invest with confidence. The treatment for early-onset Alzheimer's, which is administered via a monthly infusion, has already been approved in the U.S., United Kingdom (U.K.), Japan and China. In March, the European Medicines Agency human medicines committee rejected the drug, saying there was a risk of 'potentially fatal events' due to brain injuries and bleeding. But now, after re-examining the drug at the request of Eli Lilly, the medicines committee has recommended granting Kisunla marketing authorization for a limited number of patients who do not have a copy, or only have one copy, of the ApoE4 gene that puts them at a greater risk of Alzheimer's disease. Controlled Access The EMA said the treatment should be administered as part of a controlled access program and under the supervision of physicians trained in managing potentially dangerous symptoms. It also mandated measures aimed at mitigating risks, including more stringent rules for stopping treatment, and said that patients administered Kisunla must start with a low dose. 'This positive opinion marks a significant milestone in our efforts to bring (Kisunla) to eligible patients across Europe,' said Patrik Jonsson, President of Eli Lilly International, in a written statement. '(Kisunla) has the potential to make a meaningful difference for people living with early symptomatic Alzheimer's disease.' Is LLY Stock a Buy? The stock of Eli Lilly has a consensus Strong Buy rating among 19 Wall Street analysts. That rating is based on 16 Buy, two Hold, and one Sell recommendations issued in the last 12 months. The average LLY price target of $1,006.80 implies 26.02% upside from current levels.
