Latest news with #LaNiña
The Hindu
a day ago
- Climate
- The Hindu
Above-normal rain likely in India in second half of monsoon season: IMD
India is likely to receive above-normal rainfall during the second half of the monsoon season (August and September), the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said on Thursday (July 31, 2025). Most parts of the country, except the Northeast and adjoining areas of eastern India, are expected to record normal rainfall in August, said IMD Director General Mrutyunjay Mohapatra during an online press conference. Rainfall in September is likely to be above normal, he said. India received above-normal rainfall during the first half of the monsoon season (June and July), with some states, particularly Himachal Pradesh, experiencing flash floods. "Overall, above-normal rainfall (106% of the Long Period Average of 422.8 mm) is most likely over the country during the second half of the southwest monsoon season," Mr. Mohapatra said. "Geographically, normal to above-normal rainfall is most likely across most regions, except for many parts of the northeast and adjoining eastern India, isolated regions of central India and southwestern areas of the peninsular region, where below-normal rainfall is expected." Mohapatra said subdued rainfall is expected over the next two weeks; however, the conditions do not meet the criteria for a "break monsoon phase", which refers to a temporary lull in rainfall during the monsoon when the trough shifts toward the foothills of the Himalayas. The country received 474.3 mm of rainfall against a normal of 445.8 mm from June 1 to July 31, a surplus of six per cent. The country recorded 624 very heavy rainfall events and 76 extremely heavy rainfall events, the lowest figures in the last five years, the IMD chief said. "In Northeast India, this is the fifth consecutive year of below-normal rainfall. Over the last 30 years, a declining trend in rainfall activity has been observed in the northeastern states," he added. According to Mohapatra, good rainfall in July was due to favorable Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) conditions in the latter half of the month and the formation of six low-pressure systems spanning 28 days. Of these, four systems intensified into depressions. Among them, three formed over land and moved from Gangetic West Bengal/Northern Bay of Bengal to Rajasthan, triggering frequent heavy to very heavy rainfall and even extremely heavy rainfall on some days, the IMD said. ENSO-neutral conditions are currently prevailing and are expected to continue until October. Post-monsoon, weak La Niña conditions may develop, the IMD said. In May, the IMD forecasted that India would receive 106% of the long-period average rainfall of 87 cm during the June–September monsoon season. Rainfall ranging between 96 and 104% of this 50-year average is considered "normal". The monsoon plays a critical role in India's agriculture sector, which supports the livelihood of around 42% of the population and contributes 18.2% to the national GDP. It is also crucial for replenishing reservoirs used for drinking water and power generation.
News18
a day ago
- Climate
- News18
Above-normal rain likely in India in second half of monsoon season: IMD
New Delhi, Jul 31 (PTI) India is likely to receive above-normal rainfall during the second half of the monsoon season (August and September), the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said on Thursday. Most parts of the country, except the Northeast and adjoining areas of eastern India, are expected to record normal rainfall in August, said IMD Director General Mrutyunjay Mohapatra during an online press conference. Rainfall in September is likely to be above normal, he said. India received above-normal rainfall during the first half of the monsoon season (June and July), with some states, particularly Himachal Pradesh, experiencing flash floods. 'Overall, above-normal rainfall (106 percent of the Long Period Average of 422.8 mm) is most likely over the country during the second half of the southwest monsoon season," Mohapatra said. 'Geographically, normal to above-normal rainfall is most likely across most regions, except for many parts of the northeast and adjoining eastern India, isolated regions of central India and southwestern areas of the peninsular region, where below-normal rainfall is expected." Mohapatra said subdued rainfall is expected over the next two weeks; however, the conditions do not meet the criteria for a 'break monsoon phase", which refers to a temporary lull in rainfall during the monsoon when the trough shifts toward the foothills of the Himalayas. The country received 474.3 mm of rainfall against a normal of 445.8 mm from June 1 to July 31, a surplus of six per cent. The country recorded 624 very heavy rainfall events and 76 extremely heavy rainfall events, the lowest figures in the last five years, the IMD chief said. 'In Northeast India, this is the fifth consecutive year of below-normal rainfall. Over the last 30 years, a declining trend in rainfall activity has been observed in the northeastern states," he added. According to Mohapatra, good rainfall in July was due to favorable Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) conditions in the latter half of the month and the formation of six low-pressure systems spanning 28 days. Of these, four systems intensified into depressions. Among them, three formed over land and moved from Gangetic West Bengal/Northern Bay of Bengal to Rajasthan, triggering frequent heavy to very heavy rainfall and even extremely heavy rainfall on some days, the IMD said. ENSO-neutral conditions are currently prevailing and are expected to continue until October. Post-monsoon, weak La Niña conditions may develop, the IMD said. In May, the IMD forecasted that India would receive 106 percent of the long-period average rainfall of 87 cm during the June–September monsoon season. Rainfall ranging between 96 and 104 percent of this 50-year average is considered 'normal". The monsoon plays a critical role in India's agriculture sector, which supports the livelihood of around 42 percent of the population and contributes 18.2 percent to the national GDP. It is also crucial for replenishing reservoirs used for drinking water and power generation. PTI GVS ZMN view comments First Published: July 31, 2025, 17:45 IST Disclaimer: Comments reflect users' views, not News18's. Please keep discussions respectful and constructive. Abusive, defamatory, or illegal comments will be removed. News18 may disable any comment at its discretion. By posting, you agree to our Terms of Use and Privacy Policy.
USA Today
2 days ago
- Climate
- USA Today
A surprising 'outbreak' of tropical cyclones prowl the Pacific. What now?
The typically unremarkable Central Pacific Hurricane Basin has seen a surprising uptick in storms in late July. Both major Hurricane Iona and Tropical Storm Keli spin harmlessly far from land. The typically unremarkable central Pacific hurricane basin has seen a surprising uptick in storms in late July as both major Hurricane Iona and Tropical Storm Keli spin harmlessly far from land. "The central Pacific Ocean is in the midst of an unusual tropical cyclone 'outbreak,' recording two concurrent named storms for the first time since 2015 and its first major (Category 3 or stronger) hurricane since Dora in August 2023," said WPLG-TV hurricane expert Michael Lowry in an e-mail on July 29. Fortunately, "there is currently no immediate threat to the Hawaiian Islands from these systems," the National Weather Service in Honolulu said on July 29. While the twin storms in the central Pacific is "unusual," it's still a far cry from the all-time records set in the Atlantic and eastern Pacific basins: According to the National Hurricane Center, there have been as many as five active Atlantic tropical cyclones at once, which occurred Sept. 10-12, 1971. In the eastern Pacific, on Aug. 26, 1974, there were five simultaneous named storms of at least tropical storm strength, Phil Klotzbach, a tropical scientist at Colorado State University, told What does the activity in the Pacific mean for the US? While eastern Pacific tropical storms and hurricanes can affect the west coast of Mexico and their remnants occasionally affect the Southwest U.S. with drenching rain, central Pacific storms usually miss all land areas, though they can sometimes affect Hawaii. Tropical cyclones in the Pacific and Atlantic, while similar storms, have slightly different "seasons," with the eastern Pacific season starting two weeks earlier. Additionally, the large-scale climate factors that go into a given season's level of activity are different: For example, if forecasters predict an active Atlantic season due to La Niña, the opposite prediction is usually made for the eastern Pacific, which tends to be more active during El Niño years. As well, individual storms in each basin seldom interact directly since Central America acts as a barrier between the two basins. And while some storms can cross over between basins, usually their low-level circulation dissipates before making a complete crossover, the hurricane center said. Furthermore, hurricanes very rarely cross over from the Pacific Ocean to the Atlantic basin, AccuWeather reports: most of the hurricanes that have crossed over, records show, have taken a path from the Atlantic basin to the Pacific basin. Furthermore, both the central and eastern Pacific basins are separate from the Atlantic basin, which is the basin that we're most familiar with. All the basins have separate lists of names. Iona a major hurricane The Central Pacific Hurricane Center said in a July 29 advisory that Hurricane Iona had strengthened into a major hurricane several hundred miles south of the Hawaiian Islands. The storm had maximum sustained winds near 115 mph with higher gusts, making Iona a Category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson wind scale. Iona was moving toward the west and this motion is expected to continue with a gradual increase in forward speed during the next couple of days, according to hurricane center forecasters, who expect the storm to begin weakening by July 30. Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Keli had maximum sustained winds near 40 mph with higher gusts and was forecast to continue moving westward. The hurricane center says "little change in strength" is forecast. The weather service said July 29, "although the tropical cyclones are forecast to pass several hundred miles south of Hawaii over the next couple of days, isolated thunderstorms along the northern periphery of these systems may effect the far southern portion of the offshore waters. And while some short-period southeast swells may reach southern shores of Hawaii, a much larger and unrelated south swell will dominate." Where is the central Pacific hurricane basin? The central Pacific basin encompasses all storms and hurricanes that form between 140° West Longitude and the International Date Line. It's distinct from the more familiar eastern Pacific basin, with the dividing line being an invisible line in midst of the ocean (140°W). Additionally, the National Hurricane Center handles naming for storms in the eastern Pacific, while the Central Pacific Hurricane Center handles naming for storms in the central Pacific. More: Hurricane Iona has strengthened into a Category 3 storm: See path Central Pacific basin is usually rather quiet The central Pacific basin can see a wide range of activity depending on the year, according to Lowry. Generally, he said the basin observes its most active hurricane seasons during El Niño years like 2015, 2009, and 1997 when it recorded 16, 7, and 9 tropical cyclones respectively. On average, the central Pacific sees only 4 to 5 tropical cyclones (tropical depression, storms, or hurricanes) each season and around three named storms (tropical storm or hurricanes), Lowry said. NOAA predicted a less active central Pacific hurricane season in 2025, with a range of 1-4 tropical cyclones across the basin.
Bangkok Post
3 days ago
- Business
- Bangkok Post
US tariffs a threat to coconut exports
Thai coconut exporters could face significant challenges if the US imposes higher tariffs on Thai products than those exported from Vietnam, says K Fresh, a leading Thai producer and shipper of coconut products. El Niño conditions raised temperatures in Thailand over the past two years, causing a decline in the coconut supply and leading to rising prices and disruptions in coconut-related factory operations, said Natthasak Manusrungsri, managing director of K Fresh Co Ltd. Meanwhile, Vietnam significantly expanded its coconut export operations as it benefits from lower labour and production costs, said Mr Natthasak. He said Thailand's "Nam Hom" coconut is unique, known for its sweet and aromatic taste that can only be grown in specific provinces, such as Nakhon Pathom, Ratchaburi, Samut Sakhon and Samut Songkhram. Thailand's coconut supply remains lower than that of Vietnam, Indonesia and the Philippines. The export value of fresh coconuts reached around 7 billion baht in 2024, said Mr Natthasak. Coconut prices fluctuate with supply, and during low-yield periods prices can reach up to 30 baht a piece, he said. Now that Thailand has entered a La Niña weather pattern with increased rain, supply has surged and prices have dropped. Current farm prices for coconuts are 4-5 baht each, which helps Thai exporters to regain market share from Vietnam, said Mr Natthasak. "If we can't compete with Vietnam, the entire Thai coconut supply chain will be affected," he said. China remains a key market as its coconut demand grows, and it is important to use this opportunity to reclaim market share, said Mr Natthasak. If Chinese buyers turn to Vietnamese suppliers, Thailand's coconut industry could suffer a severe impact, he said. Mr Natthasak said trade negotiations between Thailand and the US on tariff rates are important. As the agricultural sector is crucial to the Thai economy, it is essential for the government to carefully consider any potential impacts from tariffs to Thai industries, he said. Even if Thailand secures the same tariff rate as Vietnam at 20%, it will still be difficult to compete due to Vietnam's lower prices, said Mr Natthasak. "We need a lower tariff than Vietnam, ideally under 20%," he said. K Fresh exports nearly 99% of its products, with its main markets China and the US, each accounting for around 30%. If US tariffs on Thai exports are higher than those imposed on competitors, the company may shift its focus to the Chinese market, said Mr Natthasak. Agricultural exports often rely on volume rather than margin, he said.
Bangkok Post
6 days ago
- Climate
- Bangkok Post
Experts sound drought warning for next year
As Typhoon Wipha weakens, its immediate impacts, such as flooding in parts of the North, are gradually receding. However, experts are sounding the alarm over more serious challenges ahead, including flash floods, water shortages, and a potential drought crisis in 2026. The Hydro-Informatics Institute (HII) is warning that rainfall across Thailand is expected to decline by 4-9% during August and September. This is part of broader shifts tied to climate change, including the transition from La Niña to either neutral (La Nada) or El Niño conditions, factors that will affect Thailand's water availability well into next year. At a public forum titled "Water and Climate Alert: Rain Monitor for 2025 Storm Forecast", held on Wednesday, HII analysts warned extreme weather events are likely to increase in intensity and unpredictability. Sudden droughts, driven by fluctuating rainfall, are expected to emerge in the latter half of this year, particularly affecting southern and inland provinces. HII director Royboon Rassamethes said northern provinces such as Chiang Rai, Nan, and Phayao already experienced heavy rainfall this month, exceeding 150 mm per week in some areas. Despite current flooding, the concern is now centring on how rapidly water levels might decline, leaving reservoirs understocked and agricultural areas vulnerable to drought. Looking ahead, Thailand is projected to face a water shortage of over 4,450 million cubic metres by 2026. National water reserves fall short of the 12,000 million cubic metres needed to sustain critical demand. In response, authorities are being urged to speed up work on irrigation systems and large-scale water diversion plans, redirecting floodwaters into storage pools and high-demand agricultural zones. Mr Royboon said "the next four weeks are crucial", as accumulated rainfall could trigger more flash floods while simultaneously masking the onset of longer-term water scarcity. He urged the public to monitor forecasts, updated four times daily, and to use the ThaiWater application for 48-hour alerts at the sub-district level. From November to December, heavier-than-normal rainfall is expected across the western coast of southern Thailand, while eastern provinces will see typical monsoonal patterns. However, overall, 2025 rainfall is projected to be significantly lower than in 2024, underscoring the urgency of strategic water management. The HII is working closely with public and private partners to enhance forecasting accuracy. "By integrating drone technology and advanced monitoring tools, we are upgrading our real-time response capability. "These innovations will improve early warnings and support long-term planning for Thailand's water security," Mr Royboon said. Meanwhile, the aftermath of Typhoon Wipha continues to affect residents in northern Thailand, particularly in Nan province. Reporters say floodwaters have inundated parts of the city for three consecutive days, and although levels have begun to recede slightly, many areas remain submerged, some as deep as two metres. Roads leading into Nan City, such as the route from Ban Luang district to the Phan Ton intersection in the municipal area, remain underwater. While some vehicles are now partially visible, flood levels in the economic zone remain over one metre deep. Rescue teams are using boats to transport residents in and out of their homes, helping them access essential supplies, as aid cannot reach some locations.
