Latest news with #LanceLambert
Yahoo
2 days ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Number of housing markets with falling home prices jumps sharply to 109—up from 31 in January
Want more housing market stories from Lance Lambert's ResiClub in your inbox? Subscribe to the ResiClub newsletter. Number of housing markets with falling home prices jumps sharply to 109—up from 31 in January AI isn't coming for your job—it's coming for your whole org chart What is Opendoor? OPEN stock price soars as housing market platform becomes the latest meme stock National home prices rose 0.2% year over year from June 2024 to June 2025, according to the Zillow Home Value Index reading published July 17—decelerated from the 3.2% year-over-year rate from June 2023 to June 2024. And more metro-area housing markets are seeing declines: —> 31 of the nation's 300 largest housing markets (10%) had a falling year-over-year reading in the January 2024 to January 2025 window. —> 42 of the nation's 300 largest housing markets (14%) had a falling year-over-year reading in the February 2024 to February 2025 window. —> 60 of the nation's 300 largest housing markets (20%) had a falling year-over-year reading in the March 2024 to March 2025 window. —> 80 of the nation's 300 largest housing markets (27%) had a falling year-over-year reading in the April 2024 to April 2025 window. —> 96 of the nation's 300 largest housing markets (32%) had a falling year-over-year reading in the May 2024 to May 2025 window. —> 109 of the nation's 300 largest housing markets (36%) had a falling year-over-year reading in the June 2024 to June 2025 window. While 36% of the 300 largest housing markets are currently experiencing year-over-year home price declines, that share is gradually increasing as the supply-demand balance continues to shift directionally toward buyers in this affordability-constrained and post-housing boom environment. Home prices are still climbing in many regions where active inventory remains well below pre-pandemic 2019 levels, such as pockets of the Northeast and Midwest. In contrast, some pockets in states like Arizona, Texas, Florida, Colorado, and Louisiana—where active inventory exceeds pre-pandemic 2019 levels—are seeing modest home price corrections. Year-over-year home value declines, using the Zillow Home Value Index, are evident in major metros such as Austin (-5.8%); Tampa, Florida (-5.7%); Miami (-3.8%); Dallas (-3.7%); Orlando (-3.7%); Phoenix (-3.5%); San Francisco (-3.4%); San Antonio (-3.3%); Jacksonville, Florida (-3.2%); Atlanta (-2.9%); Denver (-2.7%); San Diego (-2.4%); Raleigh, North Carolina (-2.1%); Sacramento (-1.8%); Houston (-1.8%); Riverside, California (-1.5%); New Orleans (-1.2%); Charlotte, North Carolina (-1.0%); Memphis (-1.0%); San Jose (-0.9%); Portland, Oregon (-0.4%); Seattle (-0.1%); Los Angeles (-0.4%); and Birmingham, Alabama (-0.1%). Click here for an interactive version of the chart below. The markets seeing the most softness, where homebuyers have gained the most leverage, are primarily located in Sun Belt regions, particularly the Gulf Coast and Mountain West. Many of these areas saw major price surges during the Pandemic Housing Boom, with home price growth outpacing local income levels. As pandemic-driven domestic migration slowed and mortgage rates rose, markets like Tampa and Austin faced challenges, relying on local income levels to support frothy home prices. This softening trend is further compounded by an abundance of new home supply in the Sun Belt. Builders are often willing to lower prices or offer affordability incentives to maintain sales, which also has a cooling effect on the resale market. Some buyers who would have previously considered existing homes are now opting for new homes with more favorable deals. Given the shift in active housing inventory and months of supply, along with the soft level of appreciation in more markets this spring, ResiClub expects the number of metro areas with year-over-year home price declines in the Zillow Home Value Index to continue ticking up in the coming months. This softening and regional variation should not surprise ResiClub Pro members—we've been closely documenting it. ResiClub Pro members can view our latest analysis of home prices across 800-plus metros and 3,000-plus counties here. This post originally appeared at to get the Fast Company newsletter: Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Fast Company
3 days ago
- Business
- Fast Company
Number of housing markets with falling home prices jumps sharply to 109—up from 31 in January
Want more housing market stories from Lance Lambert's ResiClub in your inbox? Subscribe to the ResiClub newsletter. National home prices rose 0.2% year over year from June 2024 to June 2025, according to the Zillow Home Value Index reading published July 17—decelerated from the 3.2% year-over-year rate from June 2023 to June 2024. And more metro-area housing markets are seeing declines: —> 31 of the nation's 300 largest housing markets (10%) had a falling year-over-year reading in the January 2024 to January 2025 window. —> 42 of the nation's 300 largest housing markets (14%) had a falling year-over-year reading in the February 2024 to February 2025 window. —> 60 of the nation's 300 largest housing markets (20%) had a falling year-over-year reading in the March 2024 to March 2025 window. —> 80 of the nation's 300 largest housing markets (27%) had a falling year-over-year reading in the April 2024 to April 2025 window. —> 96 of the nation's 300 largest housing markets (32%) had a falling year-over-year reading in the May 2024 to May 2025 window. —> 109 of the nation's 300 largest housing markets (36%) had a falling year-over-year reading in the June 2024 to June 2025 window. While 36% of the 300 largest housing markets are currently experiencing year-over-year home price declines, that share is gradually increasing as the supply-demand balance continues to shift directionally toward buyers in this affordability-constrained and post-housing boom environment. Home prices are still climbing in many regions where active inventory remains well below pre-pandemic 2019 levels, such as pockets of the Northeast and Midwest. In contrast, some pockets in states like Arizona, Texas, Florida, Colorado, and Louisiana—where active inventory exceeds pre-pandemic 2019 levels—are seeing modest home price corrections. Year-over-year home value declines, using the Zillow Home Value Index, are evident in major metros such as Austin (-5.8%); Tampa, Florida (-5.7%); Miami (-3.8%); Dallas (-3.7%); Orlando (-3.7%); Phoenix (-3.5%); San Francisco (-3.4%); San Antonio (-3.3%); Jacksonville, Florida (-3.2%); Atlanta (-2.9%); Denver (-2.7%); San Diego (-2.4%); Raleigh, North Carolina (-2.1%); Sacramento (-1.8%); Houston (-1.8%); Riverside, California (-1.5%); New Orleans (-1.2%); Charlotte, North Carolina (-1.0%); Memphis (-1.0%); San Jose (-0.9%); Portland, Oregon (-0.4%); Seattle (-0.1%); Los Angeles (-0.4%); and Birmingham, Alabama (-0.1%). The markets seeing the most softness, where homebuyers have gained the most leverage, are primarily located in Sun Belt regions, particularly the Gulf Coast and Mountain West. Many of these areas saw major price surges during the Pandemic Housing Boom, with home price growth outpacing local income levels. As pandemic-driven domestic migration slowed and mortgage rates rose, markets like Tampa and Austin faced challenges, relying on local income levels to support frothy home prices. This softening trend is further compounded by an abundance of new home supply in the Sun Belt. Builders are often willing to lower prices or offer affordability incentives to maintain sales, which also has a cooling effect on the resale market. Some buyers who would have previously considered existing homes are now opting for new homes with more favorable deals. Given the shift in active housing inventory and months of supply, along with the soft level of appreciation in more markets this spring, ResiClub expects the number of metro areas with year-over-year home price declines in the Zillow Home Value Index to continue ticking up in the coming months.
Yahoo
5 days ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Southwest Florida's housing market is undergoing a material home price correction—here's why
Want more housing market stories from Lance Lambert's ResiClub in your inbox? Subscribe to the ResiClub newsletter. The Platinum Card is about to change. Amex's new fast-format airport lounge might be a sneak preview Southwest Florida's housing market is undergoing a material home price correction—here's why This new tax deduction in Trump's 'big, beautiful bill' lets people cash in on charitable donations up to $2,000. Here's what to know Back in June 2022, this home at 1137 Treasure Cay Court in Punta Gorda, Florida, was purchased for $985,000. Just one month later, home prices in the Punta Gorda metro area peaked, and the market slipped into what ResiClub calls 'correction mode.' In April 2025, the homeowner listed the property for sale at $1,150,000, and the price has since been cut six times, with the most recent asking price at $899,000. The home just went 'pending,' though it will be a few weeks before we know the final sale price. If the home ultimately sells for $899,000—8.7% below its June 2022 purchase price—the seller might consider themselves lucky. Bank of America's automated valuation model (AVM)—although I take those with a big grain of salt—estimates the home's value at $721,615, and ResiClub's analysis of the Zillow Home Value Index shows that home prices in the Punta Gorda metro area are down 18.6% since the market's July 2022 peak. As we've closely documented for ResiClub PRO members for quite some time (here's our feature on just Punta Gorda), Southwest Florida is the weakest regional chunk of the U.S. housing market. While the Austin metro area in Texas has seen a larger overall price drop this cycle (down 23% since its 2022 peak), it isn't experiencing year-over-year price declines as steep as those seen in Southwest Florida markets like Cape Coral and Punta Gorda right now. We should point out that the weakness in Southwest Florida—and Florida more broadly—is currently more pronounced in the condo market than in the single-family market. Take Punta Gorda, for example: Single-family home prices are down 13.6% from their 2022 peak, while condo prices there have fallen 20.4%. Heading forward, one big question is: Have home prices fallen enough in markets like Punta Gorda and Cape Coral to get the attention of homebuyers, mom-and-pop single-family investors, and single-family acquisition capital? That's something we'll do some reporting on in the coming weeks for ResiClub PRO members. What's the story with Florida—in particular SWFL—right now? As ResiClub has previously discussed, Florida's particularly intense overheating during the pandemic housing boom is the key reason for its pricing vulnerability right now. While U.S. home prices rose 41% between March 2020 and June 2022, Florida home prices surged 51% over the same period. It just takes a big enough shift in the supply-demand equilibrium for that vulnerability to manifest into falling home prices. Why has the supply-demand equilibrium in Florida markets recently shifted further toward buyers than in the rest of the nation? As ResiClub has previously covered, it's a combination of five factors. 1. The migration surge to Florida fizzled out The pandemic housing boom's domestic migration surge to Florida has fizzled out. Indeed, Florida saw net domestic migration of +64K in 2024, compared with +314K in 2022. Without that higher influx of deep-pocketed buyers and second homebuyers from up north, Florida home prices have had to rely more on local incomes. 2. Surfside condo fallout Following the Surfside condo collapse in June 2021, which killed 98 people, Florida passed new structural safety rules requiring more inspections and additional funds for repairs to be set aside by the end of 2024. That has led to Florida HOAs issuing sky-high special assessments and monthly HOA fee increases to cover these costs. This has had a greater impact on older coastal Florida condo buildings. 3. Hurricane Ian spurred a softening Hurricane Ian spurred a greater SWFL softening. Markets like Cape Coral and Punta Gorda, which were hit hard by Hurricane Ian in September 2022, saw thousands of damaged homes and the subsequent need for renovations. According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Hurricane Ian caused an estimated $112.9 billion worth of total damage, making it the third-costliest U.S. hurricane on record. This combination of increased housing supply for sale (i.e., the damaged homes) and strained demand (the result of spiked home prices)—as well as spiked mortgage rates, higher insurance premiums, and higher HOA fees—has translated into market softening across much of Southwest Florida. 4. New construction supply elasticity Unlike many housing markets in the Northeast and Midwest, Florida has a higher level of homebuilding and multifamily construction. As new supply enters the market in this affordability-strained environment, builders are using bigger affordability adjustments—such as mortgage rate buydowns—where needed. This has helped cool the resale market by drawing in some buyers who might have otherwise purchased existing homes. As a result, inventory of existing homes is building up, making Florida one of the few housing markets where active listings now exceed pre-pandemic 2019 levels. 5. Home insurance shocks Over the past three years, the median annual U.S. home insurance premium has jumped 33%, but Florida homeowners have been hit even harder. The surge in Florida home insurance rates is partly driven by rising replacement costs—home prices and construction costs soared during the boom—and partly by increased hurricane risks and insurance payouts. Florida's sharp rise in insurance costs, combined with one of the biggest home price increases during the pandemic housing boom, has led to one of the biggest housing affordability deteriorations. (ResiClub PRO members can find our latest county-level home insurance report here.) This post originally appeared at to get the Fast Company newsletter: Sign in to access your portfolio
Fast Company
7 days ago
- Business
- Fast Company
Southwest Florida's housing market is undergoing a material home price correction—here's why
Want more housing market stories from Lance Lambert's ResiClub in your inbox? Subscribe to the ResiClub newsletter. Back in June 2022, this home at 1137 Treasure Cay Ct in Punta Gorda, FL, was purchased for $985,000. Just one month later, home prices in the Punta Gorda metro area peaked, and the market slipped into what ResiClub calls 'correction mode.' In April 2025, the homeowner listed the property for sale at $1,150,000, and the price has since been cut six times, with the most recent asking price at $899,000. The home just went 'pending,' though it'll be a few weeks before we know the final sale price. If the home ultimately sells for $899,000—8.7% below its June 2022 purchase price—the seller might consider themselves lucky. Bank of America's AVM model (although I take those with a big grain of salt) estimates the home's value at $721,615, and ResiClub 's analysis of the Zillow Home Value Index shows that home prices in the Punta Gorda metro area are down -18.6% since the market's July 2022 peak. As we've closely documented for ResiClub PRO members for quite some time (here's our feature on just Punta Gorda), Southwest Florida is the weakest regional chunk of the U.S. housing market. While the Austin, Texas metro area has seen a larger overall price drop this cycle (-23% since its 2022 peak), it isn't experiencing year-over-year price declines as steep as those currently seen in Southwest Florida markets like Cape Coral and Punta Gorda right now. We should point out that the weakness in Southwest Florida—and Florida more broadly—is currently more pronounced in the condo market than in the single-family market. Take Punta Gorda, for example: Single-family home prices are down -13.6% from their 2022 peak, while condo prices there have fallen -20.4%. Heading forward, one big question is: Have home prices fallen enough in markets like Punta Gorda and Cape Coral to get the attention of homebuyers, mom-and-pop single-family investors, and single-family acquisition capital? That's something we'll do some reporting on in the coming weeks for ResiClub PRO members. What's the story with Florida—in particular SWFL—right now? As ResiClub has previously discussed, Florida's particularly intense overheating during the Pandemic Housing Boom is the key reason for its pricing vulnerability right now. While U.S. home prices rose +41% between March 2020 and June 2022, Florida home prices surged +51% over the same period. It just takes a big enough shift in the supply-demand equilibrium for that vulnerability to manifest into falling home prices. Why has the supply-demand equilibrium in Florida markets recently shifted further toward buyers than in the rest of the nation? : 1) The migration surge to Florida fizzled out The Pandemic Housing Boom's domestic migration surge to Florida has fizzled out. Indeed, Florida saw net domestic migration of +64K in 2024, compared to +314K in 2022. Without that higher influx of deep-pocketed buyers and second homebuyers from up north, Florida home prices have had to rely more on local incomes. 2) Surfside condo fallout Following the Surfside condo collapse in June 2021, which killed 98 people, Florida passed new structural safety rules, requiring more inspections and additional funds for repairs to be set aside by the end of 2024. That has led to Florida HOAs issuing sky-high special assessments and monthly HOA fee increases to cover these costs. This has had a greater impact on older coastal Florida condo buildings. 3) Hurricane Ian spurred a softening Hurricane Ian spurred a greater SWFL softening. Markets like Cape Coral and Punta Gorda, which were hard-hit by Hurricane Ian in September 2022, saw thousands of damaged homes, and the subsequent need for renovations. According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Hurricane Ian caused an estimated $112.9 billion worth of total damage, making Ian the third-costliest U.S. hurricane on record. This combination of increased housing supply for sale (i.e., the damaged homes), coupled with strained demand (the result of spiked home prices), as well as spiked mortgage rates, higher insurance premiums, and higher HOAs has translated into market softening across much of Southwest Florida. 4) New construction supply elasticity Unlike many housing markets in the Northeast and Midwest, Florida has a higher level of homebuilding and multifamily construction. As new supply enters the market in this affordability-strained environment, builders are using bigger affordability adjustments—such as mortgage rate buydowns—where needed. This has helped cool the resale market by drawing in some buyers who might have otherwise purchased existing homes. As a result, inventory of existing homes is building up, making Florida one of the few housing markets where active listings now exceed pre-pandemic 2019 levels. 5) Home insurance shocks Over the past three years, the median annual U.S. home insurance premium has jumped 33%, but Florida homeowners have been hit even harder. The surge in Florida home insurance rates is partly driven by rising replacement costs—home prices and construction costs soared during the boom—and partly by increased hurricane risks and insurance payouts. Florida's sharp rise in insurance costs, combined with one of the biggest home price increases during the Pandemic Housing Boom, has led to one of the biggest housing affordability deteriorations. (ResiClub PRO members can find our latest county-level home insurance report here.) The super-early-rate deadline for Fast Company's Most Innovative Companies Awards is Friday, July 25, at 11:59 p.m. PT. Apply today.
Yahoo
16-07-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Housing market watch: Would taking Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae public drive up mortgage rates in 2026?
Want more housing market stories from Lance Lambert's ResiClub in your inbox? Subscribe to the ResiClub newsletter. 5 work-from-home purchases worth splurging for This 'Iron Dome' for mosquitoes shoots down bugs with lasers Managers think employees should take a break from work—but they don't promote the ones who do Earlier this month, President Donald Trump signed his party's reconciliation/tax overhaul bill. With reconciliation/taxes now in the rearview mirror, Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae conservatorship could move up the docket. After all, back in May, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said that privatizing Fannie Mae (the Federal National Mortgage Association, or FNMA) and Freddie Mac (the Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation, or FHLMC) would be on the agenda after taxes and trade deals. 'It [privatization of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac] is a goal for this administration,' Bessent said in May. 'Again, we're doing peace deals, tax deals, and trade deals. As we land some of those deals, then we will focus on that [privatization of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac]. But what I can tell you is that we are doing a great deal of studying at Treasury, because the one requirement for this privatization is that they are privatized in such a way that mortgage spreads do not widen.' One reason housing stakeholders should pay attention to the fate of Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae is the long-standing concern that ending conservatorship could put upward pressure on mortgage rates. See, once released, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac could need to hold more capital to absorb losses. To build and maintain that capital, they may need to increase guarantee fees charged to lenders. In addition, upon release, unless there's an 'explicit guarantee' or backstop from Congress, investors may demand higher returns to account for increased risk. Those concerns are real enough that this spring, both Bessent and Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) Director Bill Pulte said that Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae conservatorship changes wouldn't be made if doing so put upward pressure on mortgage rates/mortgage spreads. 'The priority for a Fannie and Freddie release, the most important metric that I'm looking at is any study or hint that mortgage rates would go up. Anything that is done around a safe and sound release [of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac] is going to hinge on the effect of long-term mortgage rates,' Bessent said in February. While Bessent has suggested they're looking into 'privatization,' Pulte has indicated that it's not really the 'privatization' of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, but rather it's taking them 'public.' To be honest, I'm not entirely sure what he's getting at. Maybe keeping them in conservatorship but selling off more shares? I'm not sure. 'At Fannie Mae, we have $4.3 trillion on our balance sheet. At Freddie Mac, we have over $3 trillion,' Pulte said in May. 'I would point you to his [Trump's May] tweet. He explicitly says he wants to take them [Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac] public—he did not say he wants to privatize them or many of the other things that are out there. I think these businesses have a ton of value. These businesses one day could be worth trillions of dollars. We'll see what the president ultimately decides.' While the U.S. Treasury owns the majority of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac profits through senior preferred stock agreements, the common and preferred shares that existed before conservatorship were never fully wiped out. Once Wall Street realized Trump had won the 2024 election, the stocks of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac spiked as the market priced in higher odds that the second Trump administration would attempt to end the current status quo. Looking at their share prices today, it's clear that either Wall Street or retail investors (or both) think something new is still on the horizon for Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae. As noted above, Pulte made comments in May that seemed to suggest that what they're considering could just be selling off/releasing some of the Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae stocks currently held by the government, and maybe not a full release. To better understand what the Trump administration is planning to do with Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae—and how their concerns that a release could put upward pressure on mortgage rates—we reached out to Pulte to see if he'd speak at ResiDay 2025 on Friday, November 7. He said yes. By the time ResiDay 2025 rolls around, we may already have a much clearer picture of what the administration is planning to do—or not do—with Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae. Even then, there will be several other timely topics we'd like to ask Pulte about. That could include how they plan to implement any Freddie Mac/Fannie Mae changes, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac accepting VantageScore 4.0 for mortgage underwriting, and his public attacks on Fed Chair Jerome Powell. Here's a quick Q&A if you're looking for a refresher on Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac were placed into conservatorship by the FHFA in September 2008 after suffering massive losses during the housing crash, threatening the stability of the U.S. financial system. The U.S. Treasury provided a bailout to keep them afloat, and they have remained under government control ever since—despite returning to profitability. Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae are government-backed enterprises that help keep the U.S. mortgage market running smoothly. They don't issue home loans themselves—instead, they buy mortgages from lenders, bundle them into mortgage-backed securities, and guarantee those securities against default. This process creates a steady flow of capital, helping lenders offer more mortgages and keeping mortgage rates lower. Because Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae set strict standards for the loans they buy, Freddie and Fannie shape how lenders underwrite mortgages. Their policies also influence who gets access to credit, especially first-time and lower-income buyers. During downturns, Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae, in theory, help stabilize the housing market by continuing to support lending. While Fannie and Freddie are not officially backed by the full faith and credit of the U.S. government, they are in federal conservatorship and widely perceived as having 'implicit' government support. IF Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae were fully released without an 'implicit' or 'explicit' government guarantee, Moody's chief economist Mark Zandi tells ResiClub he thinks it could push up mortgage rates by 60 basis points (bps) to 90 bps. So, for instance, a 60 bps increase would push the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate today from 6.82% to 7.42%. 'Release of the GSEs [government-sponsored enterprises] as SIFIs [systemically important financial institutions] with no government guarantee, explicit or implicit—this would add an estimated 60 to 90 basis points to 30-year fixed mortgage rates, compared to the current status quo for the typical borrower through the business cycle,' Zandi told ResiClub earlier this year. 'Without a government guarantee, the Federal Reserve would not be able to buy the GSEs' MBS [mortgage-backed security], and there is the risk that the rating agencies would downgrade the GSEs' debt and securities. The GSEs' share of the mortgage market would significantly decline, and it would increase for private lenders and the FHA, resulting in greater taxpayer exposure, as taxpayers bear all the risk in FHA loans.' IF Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae are released with an 'implicit' or 'explicit' government guarantee, Zandi thinks the mortgage rate impact would be much smaller. This post originally appeared at to get the Fast Company newsletter: Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
