Latest news with #LeadingEconomicIndex
Fibre2Fashion
19 hours ago
- Business
- Fibre2Fashion
China's leading index falls again in May, but recession risks ease
The Conference Board's (TCB) Leading Economic Index (LEI) for China fell by 0.3 per cent in May 2025 to 148.9, marking its second consecutive monthly decline. The LEI dropped 1.2 per cent over the six-month period from November 2024 to May 2025, though this was a smaller contraction than the 1.6 per cent recorded in the preceding six months. The continued decline was attributed to weakening consumer expectations, a soft logistics prosperity index, and a drop in new export orders. China's Leading Economic Index (LEI) fell 0.3 per cent in May 2025, signalling continued economic headwinds from weak consumer expectations, logistics, and export orders. However, recession risks have eased. The Coincident Economic Index (CEI) rose 0.4 per cent. The Conference Board forecasts China's 2025 real GDP growth to remain resilient at 4.5 to 5 per cent. 'The China LEI decreased again in May . Much like previous months, the main drivers of the decline in the LEI were weaknesses in consumer expectations, the logistics prosperity index, and new export orders. Both the semi-annual and annual growth rates of the LEI remained negative, continuing to suggest challenges ahead,' said Malala Lin, economic research associate at The Conference Board. 'However, the 6-month growth rate has become less negative and no longer signalled recession risks since February 2025, despite the persisting weakness among the underlying components of the LEI.' 'Furthermore, it is expected that the de-escalation of the China-US tariffs tensions and the implemented monetary policies will help mitigate risks to growth going forward. Overall, The Conference Board currently forecasts annual real GDP growth to remain resilient, between 4.5 per cent to 5 per cent in 2025,' added Lin. In contrast, the Coincident Economic Index (CEI), which reflects current economic conditions, rose by 0.4 per cent in May to 152.8. This follows a sharp 0.8 per cent drop in April. The CEI grew 0.9 per cent between November 2024 and May 2025—substantially slower than the 3 per cent gain observed in the prior six-month period. Despite ongoing weakness in key sectors, The Conference Board maintains a cautiously optimistic forecast, projecting China's real GDP growth to remain resilient at between 4.5 and 5 per cent for 2025. Fibre2Fashion News Desk (SG)
BusinessToday
4 days ago
- Business
- BusinessToday
KOSPI Retreats On Profit-Taking After Strong Rally
South Korea's benchmark KOSPI Index ended lower on June 27, slipping 0.77% to close at 3,055.94, as investors opted to take profits following a robust June rally that had pushed the index above 3,100 earlier in the week. This marks the second consecutive session of losses, driven largely by broad-based selling in battery, auto and tech sectors. Foreign investors were net sellers, offloading around 855.4 billion won worth of shares, while institutional and retail investors absorbed some of the pressure with net combined purchases of approximately 805 billion won. Despite the pullback, the KOSPI remains up around 15% for the month, bolstered by easing geopolitical tensions and increased institutional inflows that had earlier sent the index to its highest levels in over three years. Battery and automotive stocks led the decline, with LG Energy Solution falling nearly 3% and Hyundai Motor dropping 2.15%, as investors locked in gains. In tech, Samsung Electronics edged up 1%, but SK hynix lost 3.07%, reflecting mixed sentiment in the semiconductor space. Internet giant Naver dipped 1.3%, while SK Innovation slid 2.5% amid broader weakness in energy shares. The recent decline is widely viewed as a natural correction after June's sharp gains. Markets are also awaiting global signals, particularly from the US Federal Reserve, whose next policy steps could influence foreign capital flows into emerging markets like South Korea. At home, recent economic data, including a 0.6% rise in the Leading Economic Index for April, suggest a gradual improvement in macro conditions. Outlook: With the KOSPI still comfortably above the key psychological level of 3,000, analysts believe the index may consolidate in the near term as traders assess global economic cues and domestic earnings updates. Volatility may persist ahead of key data releases and geopolitical developments, but underlying investor appetite remains firm. Related
Fibre2Fashion
5 days ago
- Business
- Fibre2Fashion
India's LEI rises, CEI slumps in May amid mixed economic signals
India's economic outlook showed mixed signals in May 2025. The Leading Economic Index (LEI), which signals future economic activity, rose by 0.4 per cent to 160.5, following an upwardly revised 1.2 per cent increase in April, according to The Conference Board. Over the six-month period from November 2024 to May 2025, the LEI grew by 1.2 per cent—an improvement from the 0.2 per cent increase seen in the prior six months, as per the latest data from The Conference Board. India's LEI rose 0.4 per cent in May 2025, following a 1.2 per cent gain in April, indicating improving future economic prospects, according to The Conference Board. Over six months, the LEI grew 1.2 per cent. However, the CEI, reflecting current conditions, fell 5.7 per cent in May. India's GDP is expected to grow by around 6.3 per cent in 2025, supported by financial momentum. In contrast, the Coincident Economic Index (CEI), which reflects current economic conditions, fell sharply by 5.7 per cent in May to 147.6, more than reversing April's 5.3 per cent gain. The CEI contracted by 2.4 per cent over the latest six-month period, compared to a 0.6 per cent decline in the previous half-year, indicating ongoing weakness in real-time economic performance. 'The LEI for India increased in May, after being heavily revised upward in April . Financial variables drove the Index in May, with the largest positive contribution coming from a second month of rising stock prices. The merchandise export declined in May after surging in April,' said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, senior manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board. 'Thanks to the two consecutive monthly gains in the leading index, its six-month growth moved higher into positive territory, implying that the growth tailwinds are likely to last in the second half of 2025. Therefore, and taking also into account the stronger than expected gross domestic product (GDP) growth in Q1 and the recent easing of monetary policy, The Conference Board forecasts that India's real GDP will grow at about 6.3 per cent in 2025, only slightly slower than in 2024.' Fibre2Fashion News Desk (SG)
Newsweek
23-06-2025
- Business
- Newsweek
US Economic Outlook Remains Dark as Major Forecast Sees Sixth Straight Drop
Based on facts, either observed and verified firsthand by the reporter, or reported and verified from knowledgeable sources. Newsweek AI is in beta. Translations may contain inaccuracies—please refer to the original content. The United States' economic outlook continues to deteriorate despite some positive developments, according to the Conference Board's latest Leading Economic Index (LEI). On Friday, the D.C. think tank announced that the index had declined a further 0.1 percent in May. While this is less steep than the 1.4-percent drop recorded in April, it marks the sixth consecutive monthly decline in the LEI, which has contracted by 2.7 percent over this period. Why It Matters The LEI is a widely consulted indicator when assessing the health of the U.S. economy, and significant declines have in the past been correlated with periods of significant economic downturn. Recession fears have tempered in recent weeks, owing to a pause in the U.S.-China trade dispute and a recovery in the stock market. However, as noted in the Federal Reserve's recent decision to hold off on interest rate cuts, the effects of President Donald Trump's tariffs could prove a drag on future growth, and Americans still anticipated a prolonged battle with inflation. What To Know The only marginal decline in the LEI was attributed to an outsize drop in April, during which businesses, consumers and investors reacted with unease to the announcement of Trump's "Liberation Day" tariffs. Major stock indexes have rebounded since this shock, with all now trading above or near their levels prior to April 2. However, the Conference Board noted that this "strong rebound" was not sufficient to offset the other metrics incorporated into the LEI, such as low consumer expectations for business conditions and persistently weak demand for manufactured goods. President Donald Trump speaks to reporters on the South Lawn of the White House on June 18, 2025. President Donald Trump speaks to reporters on the South Lawn of the White House on June 18, 2025. Brendan Smialowski/AFP via Getty Images Last week, the Federal Reserve decided to once again hold off on interest rate cuts, keeping these at 4.25 to 4.5 percent. In its announcement, the Federal Open Market Committee—the branch responsible for setting monetary policy—stated that it would continue to assess risks and work toward its 2 percent inflation target. At a press conference following the announcement, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said that the U.S. economy was "in solid shape," but warned of "very high uncertainty" due to the impact of tariffs. "Everyone that I know is forecasting a meaningful increase in inflation in coming months from tariffs," he said, "because someone has to pay for the tariffs." What People Are Saying Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, senior manager of Business Cycle Indicators at The Conference Board, said: "The LEI for the US fell again in May, but only marginally. The recovery of stock prices after the April drop was the main positive contributor to the Index. However, consumers' pessimism, persistently weak new orders in manufacturing, a second consecutive month of rising initial claims for unemployment insurance, and a decline in housing permits weighed on the Index, leading to May's overall decline. "With the substantial negatively revised drop in April and the further downtick in May, the six-month growth rate of the Index has become more negative, triggering the recession signal." What Happens Next The Conference Board warned that the six consecutive drops have now pushed the index into the range that typically signals an imminent recession. However, it has held off on this prediction and currently anticipates only a "significant slowdown in economic growth" this year. Meanwhile, Powell said that the Federal Reserve is "well positioned to wait to learn more about the likely course of the economy before considering any adjustments to our policy stance."
Yahoo
20-06-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Dow, Nasdaq, S&P 500 Climb After Fed Hint at July Rate Cut
June 20 - U.S. stocks advanced Friday morning after comments from a Federal Reserve official suggested that interest rate cuts could begin as early as July, according to a morning update. The S&P 500 rose about 0.3%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average and Nasdaq Composite also gained around 0.3%. The move followed remarks by Fed Governor Christopher Waller, who said he sees limited inflation risks from tariffs and hinted at a possible rate reduction in the coming month. Most sectors in the S&P 500 traded higher, with Energy and Real Estate among the strongest performers. Health Care lagged behind other sectors in early trading. Friday also marks a triple witching event, with roughly $6.5 trillion in options and futures contracts set to expire, a factor that often adds volatility to markets. On the geopolitical front, former President Donald Trump said he will decide within two weeks whether the U.S. should carry out a military strike on Iran. The statement comes amid ongoing tensions and efforts to restart nuclear negotiations. Meanwhile, economic indicators offered a mixed picture. The Philadelphia Fed's regional manufacturing index held at -4 in June, below forecasts. The Conference Board's Leading Economic Index fell 0.1% in May to 99.0, in line with expectations. This article first appeared on GuruFocus. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
