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New York Times
a day ago
- Sport
- New York Times
A walk-off catcher's interference deep dive. Plus: Rich Hill returns
The Windup Newsletter ⚾ | This is The Athletic's MLB newsletter. Sign up here to receive The Windup directly in your inbox. I bet you haven't ever seen this play before. Plus: Ken has notes on the Nats and O's, Rich Hill is back again and the Brewers are … the best team in baseball?! I'm Levi Weaver, here with Ken Rosenthal — welcome to The Windup! Just how strange was the end of the Phillies-Red Sox game? It featured something we haven't seen since 1971. Here's the situation: It's 2-2 in the bottom of the 10th inning, with Brandon Marsh on second base. Red Sox pitcher Jordan Hicks walked Otto Kemp, then both runners advanced on a wild pitch, leading to an intentional walk to load the bases. And then… *To the tune of 'That's Amore'* 'Whennnnn thaaaaa bat hits the mitt, it's the same as a hit: in-ter-ference.' Edmundo Sosa's bat hit the glove of Carlos Narváez. That's catcher's interference. Free base. Run scored. It was, per Sarah Langs, the first walk-off catcher's interference since Aug. 1, 1971, when Johnny Bench made the mistake against the Dodgers. Advertisement I did a little digging on that one … wanna learn some real baseball sicko information with me? The Dodgers trailed by a run going into the 11th inning of that game, scoring the tying run when Bill Buckner was hit by a pitch with the bases loaded. After a forceout at home plate, the box score shows the pitcher (Joe Gibbon) balking with the bases loaded, but the runners did not advance. Then came the catcher's interference, allowing the run to score. Wait, what? Why didn't the Dodgers score on the balk? Here's the answer, thanks to the folks at Baseball Toaster (h/t Retrosheet). The runner at third (Manny Mota) attempted to steal home on the play. Bench stepped in front of the plate, triggering Rule 7.07: If, with a runner on third base and trying to score by means of a squeeze play or a steal, the catcher or any other fielder steps on, or in front of home base without possession of the ball, or touches the batter or his bat, the pitcher shall be charged with a balk, the batter shall be awarded first base on the interference and the ball is dead. So both a balk and catcher's interference were called! Mystery solved. More Phillies: Did you know they have a pitcher named Max Lazar? Also, he's gaining his manager's trust. More weirdness: A fan fell into the basket at Wrigley Field last night. From my most recent notes column: Nats' DeBartolo aiming to keep young players: Mike DeBartolo, the Nationals' interim GM, told reporters Saturday that he is not looking to trade any of the team's better young players — left fielder James Wood and left-hander MacKenzie Gore, both of whom were first-time All-Stars, as well as shortstop CJ Abrams and outfielder Dylan Crews. Gore, with two additional years of club control remaining, is at the same level of service as Juan Soto when the Nationals sent him to the San Diego Padres at the 2022 deadline. But the Nationals are in a different place now than they were then. A more uncertain place, even though by now they should be coming out of their rebuild. Advertisement The firings of president of baseball operations Mike Rizzo and manager Davey Martinez on July 6 left the Nationals in need not just of a new, permanent top executive, but also an organizational direction. Ownership must decide whom to hire, what the future payrolls will be, how in general it wants to proceed. DeBartolo obviously will need to listen if teams call on Gore. But barring a mammoth offer, trading the lefty in advance of such determinations would be ill-advised. As one rival executive put it, if the Nationals were going to entrust DeBartolo with such a move, they might as well make him permanent GM. The Nationals aren't ready to do that just yet. Aside from closer Kyle Finnegan, who had back-to-back nightmarish outings before rebounding Saturday, the Nats' most attractive trade chip might be right-hander Michael Soroka. Rival clubs view Soroka's 5.10 ERA as misleading. Entering Sunday, his 3.22 expected ERA was in the top 25 percent of the league, and his strikeout and walk rates were in the top 30 percent. Rutschman's future in Baltimore in question? The Orioles' selections of two players listed as catchers with their first two draft picks did not reflect a lack of confidence in Adley Rutschman, according to a source briefed on the club's thinking. Still, Rutschman's long-term future in Baltimore is not as certain as it once appeared. He is under club control for only two more seasons. The Orioles' interest in signing him to an extension might be waning. Their top prospect, Samuel Basallo, also is a catcher. The draft, at least, was a separate matter. While some picks get to the majors more quickly than in the past, most still take years to develop. So, teams generally focus on the best available players rather than target specific needs. The Orioles' top pick, Ike Irish at No. 19, is not purely a catcher. He played 41 games in right field and four in left at Auburn this season, and caught in only 12. The Orioles love his bat. They'll figure out his position later. Advertisement The team's second choice, Caden Bodine at No. 30, is strictly a catcher, but the Orioles simply saw him as good value. The Athletic's Keith Law, in his final mock draft, projected Bodine going to the Tampa Bay Rays at No. 14. had him going to the Diamondbacks at No. 18. More notes here. I know; we've been writing about the Brewers an awful lot lately. But with their 6-0 win over the Mariners last night, a couple of milestones were crossed. I've harped on how many players the Brewers have lost in the last half-decade, but I should be fair: It's not like the players they have left are a bunch of anonymous nobodies. Christian Yelich: NL MVP in 2018 (and second in 2019) before injuries walloped him, but his 223 home runs rank him 27th among active players (between Juan Soto and Rafael Devers). He's thriving as their DH. Jackson Chourio: No. 2 on Keith Law's top 100 prospects list in 2024. Brice Turang: I've been telling you about him since last May! Rhys Hoskins: Former Phillies star with 186 career homers. Freddy Peralta: Two-time All-Star, leading baseball with 12 wins. Brandon Woodruff: Also a two-time All-Star who finished fifth in NL Cy Young voting in 2021 and has been brilliant since returning from injury. Yes, there are also lesser-known names — let's talk about Caleb Durbin and Isaac Collins soon. But it's not like this roster is the Bad News Bears. More underdogs: The Blue Jays cannot stop beating the New York Yankees. Rich Hill is 45 years old. He has pitched for the … *deep breath* Cubs, Orioles, Red Sox (first time), Guardians (under their former name), Angels, Yankees, Red Sox (again), A's, Dodgers, Twins, Rays, Mets, Red Sox (thrice), Pirates and Padres and Red Sox (just get married already). That's 13 big-league teams, one short of the record set by Edwin Jackson. But according to reports last night, it appears Hill will tie Jackson's record very soon: Kansas City signed Hill to a minor-league deal in May, and he is expected to make his Royals debut as early as tonight. As for what role Hill will play, we won't know until the move is officially announced and Royals manager Matt Quatraro is able to speak to the media about it. The Royals currently have six pitchers — including Michael Lorenzen, Cole Ragans and Hunter Harvey — on the IL. Do we believe in the Mets' youth? Tim Britton makes the case that we should. Dennis Lin says the Padres' deadline moves should keep 2026 in focus, too. Spencer Jones' name has been kicked around in a lot of trade rumors. Chris Kirschner spoke to the Yankees prospect, who says he wants to make his big-league debut in pinstripes. Advertisement Jim Bowden has a league-wide deadline rundown with what each team is looking to accomplish. Pete Crow-Armstrong's knee bruise is a reminder for the Cubs: depth is important. On the pods: On 'Rates & Barrels,' Eno is back to discuss a sneaky pitcher waiting in the wings for the Rangers, and the inconsistency of Jesús Luzardo. And on 'The Roundtable,' they discuss that Acuña throw and whether the D-Backs should be buyers or sellers. Most-clicked in our last newsletter: Once again, the story behind the viral photo of Billye Aaron during the All-Star Game.
New York Times
a day ago
- Sport
- New York Times
MLB Power Rankings: Tigers. Cubs. Brewers. Sheesh! Plus: second-half storylines to watch
By Grant Brisbee, Chad Jennings and Levi Weaver Every week, we ask a selected group of our baseball writers — local and national — to rank the teams from first to worst. Here are the collective results. Ah, the start of the second half. Inexperienced baseball fans pay far too much attention to the first week of the season, but the seasoned nerds among us know that it's the first week of the second half that deserves outsized scrutiny and complaints. There's a gap of almost a full week between real games, which builds the anticipation up like a kinked garden hose. And then, whammo, all the baseball you can handle, and now every game means twice as much. It feels that way, at least. Let's rank powers and see who is up and down to start the second half. Record: 60-41 Last Power Ranking: 2 Second-half storyline: How many of these breakout seasons will last? Twenty-two players have taken at least one plate appearance for the Detroit Tigers this year. Of those 22, seven are on pace for (or have already surpassed) their career high in bWAR. Of those who have not, you have Riley Greene, who is on pace for 4.4 bWAR (still pretty good!) and Javier Báez, for whom — after the last couple of years — 'on pace for 3.2 bWAR' feels kind of like a miracle. Advertisement Let's do the pitchers: 23 (not counting position players) have thrown at least one pitch for Detroit. Of those, you have nine on pace for new career highs. To be fair, that number includes some first-year rookies, but it also includes Tarik Skubal, who won the AL Cy Young Award last year. Of the pitchers who aren't on pace for career highs? Casey Mize, who had a pretty good 2021 but has been mostly derailed by injuries since. Like Báez, his 'on pace for' 2.4 WAR seems like a big win for Detroit. — Levi Weaver Record: 59-41 Last Power Ranking: 4 Second-half storyline: Now if they can just stick the landing… The Cubs have had a lot of things go right in the first half: Pete Crow-Armstrong is a legitimate star, Matthew Boyd is an All-Star, Seiya Suzuki is roughing up opposing pitchers; literally Drew Pomeranz — who, again, last pitched in the big leagues in 2021 — is pitching like a bullpen bully. They've also had some bad luck. Justin Steele is out for the year. Shota Imanaga has also spent some time on the IL. Matt Shaw hasn't fully blossomed. Ian Happ has been good-but-not-great as a leadoff hitter. So it has to feel good to come out of the gate in the second half by winning two of three, laying claim to the best record in the National L— excuse me, what are you guys doing here?!?! — Weaver Record: 59-42 Last Power Ranking: 1 Second-half storyline: Just how much can they get out of Shohei Ohtani (the pitcher)? Before the season started, the idea of Ohtani returning to the mound for the Dodgers seemed like a quaint midseason development. Certainly, they weren't going to need him, and they could use him however they wanted. Then 80 percent of their rotation fell into a wheat thresher, and suddenly he's looking like the best option to start one of the first two games of a postseason series. He just needs to ramp up his strength and go through the command funkiness that every Tommy John recovery comes with. Advertisement No pressure. But also, all of the pressure. Let's get stretched out, and don't stop hitting dingers along the way. — Grant Brisbee Record: 60-40 Last Power Ranking: 10 Second-half storyline: Is this the real life? Is this just fantasy? There's a philosophical belief that all pain and suffering comes from the inability to let go or release. Whether that be hopes and dreams, people, possessions, desires — the need to cling to whatever you believe will bring you fulfillment is where the problem begins, and true enlightenment comes from understanding the temporal nature of all things, and your relationship to all things (which is also temporal). If you can explain what the Brewers are doing in any simpler terms, I invite you to fill in for me next time I'm responsible for their blurb in these Power Rankings. In last Friday's Windup, I added up the bWAR of 12 former Brewers around the league, and it added up to 14.5 bWAR, or — at the time — the combination of Aaron Judge (7.1) Shohei Ohtani (4.3) and Jacob deGrom (3.1). So maybe they've figured out something the rest of us haven't. Or maybe they'll crash and burn in the second half. For now, after Monday's win over the Mariners, they have the best record in baseball, and it's blowing my mind. — Weaver Record: 57-43 Last Power Ranking: 3 Second-half storyline: Is this the year? The Phillies have been one of the best teams in baseball the past three years, and they're making it four in a row this season. Once again, the Phillies have arguably the best rotation in baseball; their offensive trio of Kyle Schwarber, Bryce Harper, and Trea Turner is also among the best. According to FanGraphs, only the Dodgers have meaningfully better World Series odds. But the past three seasons have ended in disappointment, and the Phillies have been eliminated earlier and earlier in the postseason. This is a championship-or-bust era for the Phillies. They've been very good, but they're still missing a ring. Is this the year it changes? And how aggressive will they be at the deadline in pursuit of a championship? — Chad Jennings Record: 55-45 Last Power Ranking: 7 Second-half storyline: What does 'going to town' mean? A little before the All-Star break, Yankees general manager Brian Cashman addressed the team's approach to the trade deadline by saying, 'We're going to town. We're going to do everything we possibly can to improve ourselves and try to match up.' With the Yankees, 'going to town' can mean a pretty big splash. Their farm system isn't great, but they're always a threat to take on salary to make big-ticket acquisitions possible. They've also been, at times, really good this season (at other times, maddeningly inconsistent). Undoubtedly, the Yankees will do something, and probably something substantial. But will it be enough to make them World Series favorites down the stretch? Clearly, they need help. The Yankees got back to the World Series last year but haven't won a championship since 2009. — Jennings Record: 59-41 Last Power Ranking: 8 Second-half storyline: Is this team this good? Pretty basic question, really, but the Blue Jays are a puzzle. A 10-game winning streak in the weeks before the All-Star break boosted them into first place, but as of late May, they were a sub-.500 team with a roughly 70 percent chance of missing the playoffs. Even now, their run differential is somewhere between that of the Reds and Giants, which isn't exactly elite company. The Yankees, Rays and Red Sox have been far better at outscoring their opponents. To be in first place in the AL East is impressive, and usually a sign of a legitimate World Series contender. Should we really think of the Blue Jays that way? And can they do something at the trade deadline to convince us one way or the other? — Jennings Advertisement Record: 58-42 Last Power Ranking: 5 Second-half storyline: Will there be an AL West race? For a second, it looked like the Astros were going to run away with the sucker, leading by as many as seven games in the week before the All-Star break. A brutal homestand against the Guardians and Rangers, followed by a series loss against the Mariners on the road, has changed the calculus. The Mariners aren't nipping at their heels, but they're close enough to start tensing their jaw muscles. They'll need deadline help, and it'll probably be on the offensive side, even though they have nearly a full rotation on the 60-day IL. They'll worry about the pitching, but someone else is going to bring the hitting. — Brisbee Record: 57-44 Last Power Ranking: 6 Second-half storyline: Is the rotation good enough? As of June 13, the Mets had the second-best record in baseball — best in the National League — in large part because of their rotation, which was elite with a 2.78 ERA. No other big league rotation had an ERA below 3.00. Kodai Senga was the league leader in ERA at that point, with David Peterson and Clay Holmes also in the top 20. But the Mets' rotation stumbled in the second half of June and into the All-Star break. Its ERA jumped to 5.31 with Senga and Tylor Megill hurt. Now, Senga is healthy again, Sean Manaea is finally active and Peterson is a first-time All-Star. With Holmes and Frankie Montas, do the Mets have enough starting pitching? If not, does this trade market have the front-end arm that could make a significant difference? — Jennings Record: 54-48 Last Power Ranking: 14 Second-half storyline: Is their outfield a wasted logjam or valuable depth? This storyline could extend into the offseason, but in the short term, it's a fascinating factor in the team's approach to the trade deadline and the final analysis of all that comes after. The Red Sox are an interesting but imperfect team (as evidenced by their stunning Rafael Devers trade in June). They need pitching (again), their first baseman is hurt (again), and their middle infield is a weird combination of talent without immediate results. But their outfield is overflowing, especially since the arrival of top prospect Roman Anthony to play alongside Jarren Duran, Wilyer Abreu and Ceddanne Rafaela. Advertisement The Red Sox could trade from that depth to address a more glaring need. If they do, and someone gets hurt, they'll look suddenly thin. If they don't and miss the playoffs, they will have perhaps missed an opportunity to improve. The ball's in your court, Craig Breslow. — Jennings Record: 53-47 Last Power Ranking: 13 Second-half storyline: Forget the all-time record for catchers — can Big Dumper get to 60 homers? Salvador Pérez holds the record for 48 catcher home runs, a record he set in 2021. Cal Raleigh is just 10 homers behind that with more than 60 games to go. Assuming regular health, that's a record that's as good as broken. Can he get to 60, though? That's much trickier. Every slugger hits a dry patch; Raleigh's just hasn't come yet. Maybe it'll never come, and he's certainly on pace. Another storyline to watch is with the Mariners' postseason chase, but in a way, that's a part of the same storyline. — Brisbee Record: 52-49 Last Power Ranking: 9 Second-half storyline: Is Shane McClanahan the sport's biggest trade deadline addition? No one is suggesting the Rays are going to trade McClanahan, but they should get him back off the IL right around the trade deadline. That's a potential ace joining a team on the playoff bubble. And if McClanahan is at his best, he could push the Rays into a wild card spot with a rotation that should worry everyone — McClanahan, Drew Rasmussen, Ryan Pepiot, Zack Littell, Shane Baz — along with a sneaky good offense that's top five in the AL in runs per game. Adding a homegrown ace to fuel a second-half playoff run would be one of the most Rays things imaginable. And it could happen (or they could sell at the deadline and try again next year). — Jennings Record: 55-45 Last Power Ranking: 11 Second-half storyline: Where are the runs going to come from? Advertisement The Padres are a sneaky-awful offensive team. They're ranked 24th in adjusted OPS (OPS+) and have an unadjusted OPS under .700. They've hit just 86 home runs, which is behind the Marlins, Giants and, gasp, Rockies. This is pretty remarkable, considering that Manny Machado and Fernando Tatís Jr. have each hit 16 homers or more. They'll hope to get those dingers from Xander Bogaerts, in year X of a billion-year contract, and Jackson Merrill, who is still growing into his power. The real cavalry might come at the deadline, though. You know A.J. Preller won't be idle. — Brisbee Record: 52-49 Last Power Ranking: 12 Second-half storyline: Is Rafael Devers OK? One thing we know about Devers: He has an emotional component to his game. His displeasure with his old organization bled into the start of the regular season, and he was striking out at a record-setting pace. Then he turned his season around with a lot of thumping. Sometimes it takes a bit for his head to clear. – Brisbee This is hardly sabermetrics, but it sure seems like he's in a similar funk with the Giants, who acquired him to single-handedly fix the offense. They were polite about it, but quite insistent. The pressure hasn't helped him, and he's been a dud in his limited time in San Francisco. Back and leg problems might be the culprit more than brain problems, but either way, the Giants still need him. That hasn't changed. — Brisbee Record: 51-50 Last Power Ranking: 17 Second-half storyline: Regression works both ways, doesn't it? The pitching has been extremely good. Maybe a little too good. It wouldn't surprise me if they came back down to earth just a little bit in the second half. The hitting has been extremely bad. Maybe a little too bad. It wouldn't surprise me if they came back to life just a little bit in the second half. Advertisement The problem is that if both of these things happen, it's not going to change their outcome much after a disappointing first half. For this season to be a success in Texas, they will need one order of regression to the mean (offense), hold the regression to the mean (pitching). And it's probably going to need to happen fast. The deadline is nigh. — Weaver Record: 50-51 Last Power Ranking: 16 Second-half storyline: Will they be sellers at the deadline? As always, the Golden Rule of Selling is in play: If you have a lot of good players to trade in a selling effort, it's possible that you have a sneakily good team and don't need to rebuild at all. Patience is more valuable in those situations than prospects. The Diamondbacks are on the fringes of the wild-card race, and they have a lot of pending free agents, so they could go either way. Don't think of it as a rebuild, but an early start to free agency, just with more prospects. This is the likeliest course, but we're still at a stage of the season where a hot week could change everything. — Brisbee Record: 52-49 Last Power Ranking: 18 Second-half storyline: Will they learn from the past two deadlines? If you're not a Reds fan, you might not have noticed that the Reds were pretty good when the deadline came in 2023. They made some minor moves, but nothing splashy, and finished two games out of a wild-card position. Last year, they had a losing record at the deadline, didn't do much, and faded down the stretch, finishing 12 games out. This year is a weird combination of both. Yes, their record is 52-49 but they're only one spot (and 3.5 games) out of the final wild-card position. Will GM Nick Krall seize an opportunity to make a second-half run, or will the team slow-play it again, hoping to build for progress in 2026? — Weaver Advertisement Record: 52-49 Last Power Ranking: 15 Second-half storyline: What kind of team are they? Hot, cold, hot, cold, hot, cold. Pick an identity, you freaks. The Cardinals got obliterated in their first series out of the break, getting blown out by a Diamondbacks team looking to reestablish itself as a contender. The Cardinals would like to do that, too, building on some of those wins they banked in May. They just might be a mediocre team, though. They have five starters who have made all but two of their starts this season (good) and they all have an ERA over 4.00 (bad). They could go for it, but in the service of what goal? This is the franchise and fan base that knows better than anyone else that every postseason has a Jered Weaver, and you just need to get there to find out who it is. Easier said than done. — Brisbee Record: 49-50 Last Power Ranking: 22 Second-half storyline: Will we see Chase DeLauter this year? Could the Guardians get hot and leapfrog five teams in the second half to make it into the playoffs? Sure, it's mathematically possible. But it's not probable enough to make it my second-half storyline. Instead, I'm curious if we'll get to see DeLauter, who was ripping it up in Triple A before a hand injury that may have delayed a big-league call-up. He's seeing a hand specialist, so when he's healthy, we'll get to see if he extends his on-base streak in Columbus (34 games) or if he'll get a chance to start a new one in Cleveland. Beyond that, the Guardians appear to be slowly sinking into a light sell-off at the deadline. — Weaver Record: 48-52 Last Power Ranking: 19 Second-half storyline: At what point will we have seen enough? It was technically less than a week ago when Dan Hayes' second-half storylines article ran with a headline asking if the Twins were buyers or sellers. Advertisement Well, they're 5-5 in their last 10 games, which doesn't really scream one or the other, but two of those losses were to the Rockies, sooooo it seems like maybe we have our answer? Probably? These are the Twins, though — just as likely to catch a good vibes wave and ride it to a 10-game winning streak as they are to (metaphorically) put their phones on silent and spend a week in bed while the bills pile up. As fun as it would be to see them hit one of those hot streaks in the playoffs, I just don't think this squad has the juice. So when does the front office pull the plug? — Weaver Record: 49-52 Last Power Ranking: 21 Second-half storyline: Who sticks around for next year? Last year, the Royals made the playoffs. They had a sneaky-busy offseason, headlined by the acquisition of Jonathan India from the Reds — finally, a leadoff hitter to get on base ahead of Bobby Witt Jr. India entered last night's action with an on-base percentage of .328, or exactly the same as Eugenio Suárez (but about 250 points lower on slugging). On the upside, Maikel García seems to have put it together, making his first All-Star team and finally turning all that hard contact into productive numbers. Barring some miracle, the Royals won't be repeating last year's October performance. These games are for sussing out the future. Fortunately for the Royals, they can know this in time to make some trades and bolster the farm system, rather than waiting until mid-August to find out. — Weaver Record: 44-55 Last Power Ranking: 20 Second-half storyline: Are two catchers too many? The story of this Braves season seems already written. They're disappointments. Maybe the biggest disappointments in baseball. If they can change that in the second half, it'll be one of the most exciting storylines in the game. But let's not count on that one. Instead, the Braves are probably doing to do some version of selling at the trade deadline Will they trade veteran catcher Sean Murphy, or keep him and find at-bats for both Murphy and rookie Drake Baldwin (in which case, they could trade DH Marcell Ozuna)? This still looks like a talented roster. But what's it going to look like come Aug, 1, and how is that going to impact our expectations heading into 2026? — Jennings Advertisement Record: 49-51 Last Power Ranking: 23 Second-half storyline: What will they get at the deadline? There was a hot minute in April when it looked like Mike Trout had a shot at a second postseason series. Alas. They're not without players to trade, though. They'll keep onto the young players, of course, but they have relievers to interest the masses, from closer Kenley Jansen to lefty Reid Detmers. They've resisted trading their menagerie of Useful Tylers thus far, but this is probably the deadline that changes. The Angels, for the first time in a while, look like they're actually emerging from a morass. Patience. It'll be a couple more seasons, but this deadline could kickstart those efforts. — Brisbee Record: 44-55 Last Power Ranking: 24 Second-half storyline: Something to believe in? This was supposed to be the Orioles' heyday, when their young talent would make them consistent contenders. They won 101 games in 2023, got back to the playoffs last year and their FanGraphs playoff odds were basically identical to the Tigers on Opening Day (perhaps lower than expected due to concerns about their pitching). Instead, the Orioles have been a complete flop, setting the stage for a potentially massive fire sale at the trade deadline (Ryan O'Hearn, Zach Eflin, Cedric Mullins, et al.). Can the Orioles turn a bunch of rentals into meaningful talent? And perhaps more importantly, can their young core perform well enough in the second half to suggest all the hype and expectation is warranted (assuming they don't skimp on pitching in the future). — Jennings Record: 46-53 Last Power Ranking: 25 Second-half storyline: All about Sandy This story is all about the main character. With all due respect to Kyle Stowers and Otto Lopez, there's no bigger fish in the Marlins clubhouse than Sandy Alcantara. And after another underwhelming start on Friday, he currently has a 7.14 ERA. Three years ago, he won a Cy Young award, and in two or three years, he's going to be a free agent. Miami has to decide whether to trade him, and some contending team has to decide whether to believe in him. Whether he stays or goes, Alcantara will be the biggest Marlins story of the second half. — Jennings Advertisement Record: 42-60 Last Power Ranking: 27 Second-half storyline: So, how's the ballpark during the Sacramento summer? The A's have scheduled as many night games as possible in the Sacramento heat, but they're limited on Sundays and travel days because of the CBA and ESPN games, and we're about to get into the real Northern California summer. July is for weenies; real heads know that August and especially September is when the heat gets here. That's more of a Bay Area dynamic — it's already been plenty hot in Sacramento — but it still applies. It's a long baseball season for the new turf, too. We'll see if there's any physical fatigue, for players or otherwise, as the months drag on. — Brisbee Record: 40-61 Last Power Ranking: 26 Second-half storyline: Why do we watch baseball, anyway? I mean look, if you're reading a section about the Pirates, it probably means you care about the Pirates, which means you could tell me a half-dozen reasons you'll keep watching their games this year. Paul Skenes is stupid-good at pitching and gets robbed of a loss about every fifth day, which is sad or funny, depending on if you root for Skenes. Oneil Cruz hits the ball 120 miles an hour once in a while (which is neither sad nor funny, unless you are a nervous laugher). Andrew McCutchen is baseball's version of a wizened old monk atop a mountain, and you never know how much longer he'll stick around, so you should take that in while you can. All of these are worthwhile reasons to watch baseball, and I'm not going to tell you otherwise. Life is fleeting, and so very precious, and if watching the Pirates brings you any shred of joy, you should keep doing it. — Weaver Record: 40-60 Last Power Ranking: 28 Second-half storyline: First chapter of a fresh start Advertisement The Nationals already made their biggest decision of the year, firing manager Dave Martinez and general manager Mike Rizzo. They haven't been any better since, but at least they did … something. Last week, they picked first in the draft. Later this month, they'll sell at the deadline (though their valuable chips are few and far between unless they want to trade a trio of potential cornerstones). Whatever happens in the second half, it's all about starting over. The Nationals aren't starting from scratch — James Wood is a pretty good foundation — but they're clearly turning a page. Their second-half storyline is just an introduction to whatever comes next. — Jennings Record: 36-65 Last Power Ranking: 29 Second-half storyline: When does Bears training camp begin? I know what I just said about the Pirates up there. I could lean into that sentiment again here, or we could give equal time to an opposing philosophy, one passed down to us by a 'semi-professional racecar driver and amateur tattoo artist.' It goes like this: 'If you're not first, you're last.' OK, OK, that's terrible advice, but in the case of the White Sox, it has been a while since they were first … or second, or third… The last time they finished anywhere other than last was 2023, but they still lost 100 games that year, so … fourth place in that division still feels pretty last-ish to me. The last time they were respectable? It was also the last time they had a winning record (not counting 1-0 on Opening Day) — they finished second in the AL Central in 2022, losing on the last day to fall to exactly .500 at 81-81. The league that existed on that day did not yet include 14 players who were All-Stars this year. It makes me wonder — not counting Opening Week, when do we think the White Sox will have a winning record again? I'm setting the over/under at May 12, 2028. — Weaver Advertisement Record: 24-76 Last Power Ranking: 30 Second-half storyline: Can they avoid the 2024 White Sox? C'mon, folks. We're all in this together. It can't be possible for a team to set a modern record for losses that stands for just one year. It has to wear that shame for at least another year, but they'd preferably do it for a decade, if not a century. That is simply too many losses for the record to last just a year. Back of the envelope math: The Rockies were 24-75 as of Monday morning, a 39-win pace, breaking the White Sox record by two games. They're 15-20 since the start of June, which is just normal worst-team stuff, not historical worst-team stuff. Keep it up, fellas. — Brisbee (Top photo of Pete Crow-Armstrong: Matt Dirksen / Chicago Cubs / Getty Images)
New York Times
6 days ago
- Sport
- New York Times
Your takes on the All-Star Game swing-off. Plus: How do the Brewers keep doing this?
The Windup Newsletter ⚾ | This is The Athletic's MLB newsletter. Sign up here to receive The Windup directly in your inbox. So the swing-off was a big success. Let's overreact a little bit? Plus: The NL Central should be a fun battle in the second half, the Orioles might make gold out of some strong first-half performers, and … do the Blue Jays have the juice? I'm Levi Weaver, here with Ken Rosenthal — welcome to The Windup! The biggest non-ASG news in baseball yesterday: The Pirates traded Adam Frazier (back) to the Royals for Cam Devanney. You don't need 1,500 words from me on that trade! And besides: The swing-off was new and exciting and novel! It was fun!! So fun, in fact, that a few players suggested (joking, we think) that allextra-innings games should be decided that way. Advertisement Ooooookay, tap the brakes. Let's not propose after one good date. But if players are bringing it up, we decided it was worth asking our readers: How do you feel about it? Polling is still open, but as of last night, with more than 3,000 votes in, here's where you stood: Would you be in favor of MLB changing the rules so regular-season games tied after nine innings are decided by a swing-off? No: 67 percent Yes: 33 percent That feels right. It was fun, but so was 'two teams made up of the best players in the sport.' The All-Star Game is an exhibition, a bit less serious than a regular-season game. I think the swing-off added to the fun, but I agree with you: Let's keep it to the exhibition. How would you prefer regular-season games be decided after nine innings? Extra innings, just like the first nine: 37 percent Extra innings starting with a runner on second base: 34 percent Swing-off, like the All-Star Game: 30 percent I'm not surprised that 'go back to the old way' won. In fact, I'm surprised it was this close. I hated the ghost-runner idea when it was first proposed, but (sorry) I've come around — so long as it is neverimplemented in the postseason. Do you think MLB will bring a version of the swing-off to regular-season games at some point in the future? No: 61 percent Yes: 39 percent The fact that 67 percent said you didn't like it, but only 61 percent don't think MLB will do it, tells me that about eight percent of you are about as cynical as I am. Yes, they've implemented the ghost runner, banned the shift and put in a pitch clock, and it appears that the ABS 'robot umps' are next. But surely they wouldn't do this, right? Right?! From my latest notes column: Baltimore Orioles right-hander Charlie Morton and left-hander Trevor Rogers are examples of how quickly a player's trajectory — and trade value — might change. Morton, 41, was the symbol of the Orioles' early season collapse, posting a 10.89 ERA in his first five starts. But over his last 59 innings, dating to April 29, his ERA is 3.05. Advertisement One of many Orioles on an expiring contract, Morton suddenly looks like an attractive chip. During Fox's All-Star preview show Monday, I mentioned him as a possibility for the Boston Red Sox. Yes, the Red Sox would love to do better, and perhaps they will. But the starting-pitching market is thin, and Sox manager Alex Cora is familiar with Morton from the 2017 Houston Astros. With Bryan Bello and Lucas Giolito both on a roll, perhaps the Sox would be OK with someone like Morton rather than a pure — and possibly unattainable — No. 2 starter. Rogers, 27, also has bounced back. His debut with the Orioles last August was so rough, the team sent him to the minors. At that point, his acquisition from the Miami Marlins looked like a bust. And when Rogers began this season on the injured list, it didn't appear much better. Outfielder Kyle Stowers became an All-Star with the Marlins. The other player the Orioles sent to Miami, infielder Connor Norby, also seems capable of haunting Baltimore. But since joining the Orioles on May 24, Rogers' ERA is 1.53, and it isn't just luck. His expected ERA is 2.94. The difference between Morton and Rogers is that Rogers is under club control for one more season. The Orioles plan to contend in 2026. Their current projected rotation would include Grayson Rodríguez and Kyle Bradish, both of whom could be hard-pressed to carry significant workloads coming off major injuries. The Orioles are listening on Rogers, just as they are listening on closer Félix Bautista, who is under club control for two additional seasons. A source briefed on the team's plans, however, said it was unlikely either would be traded. The Orioles have nearly a dozen potential free agents to work through, including All-Star designated hitter Ryan O'Hearn. Trades involving some or most of those players will be the priority. More notes here. In yesterday's Windup, I listed three storylines (and three honorable mentions) that I will be watching closely in the second half. What you don't know is that I originally had the Cubs/Brewers in the NL Central as one of them (but then got sucked into the 'Wow, the Brewers have a lot of pretty good rookies' vortex). Advertisement Fortunately, Patrick Mooney has my back, so I get to talk about it anyway. His story today focuses on Cubs manager Craig Counsell — who formerly managed the Brewers — and how his current team is a legit World Series contender this year … but his old team is still just a game back in the standings. It is truly mind-boggling to me how the Brewers can keep shedding talent each year, and yet somehow, improbably, continue to contend for the postseason. Check out this list of former Brewers, just from 2020-2024: Josh Hader, Corbin Burnes, Adrian Houser, Brent Suter, Devin Williams, Drew Rasmussen, Eric Lauer, Luis Urías, Willy Adames, Hoby Milner, Colin Rea, Janson Junk … Just those 12 (or 11, really — Williams has been worth 0.0 bWAR) have been worth 14.5 bWAR this year. That's the same total compiled by Aaron Judge (7.1) Shohei Ohtani (4.3) and Jacob deGrom (3.1) combined. This feels like watching a car drop a muffler, two tires, an alternator and a steering wheel, and just keep on cruising toward the finish line at top speed. If not for the spectacle of the Magic Milwaukee Speed Racer, the Cubs might be the runaway story of the National League. Kyle Tucker has proven to be a phenomenal addition. Pete Crow-Armstrong is making Mets fans curse the name of Javy Báez. Drew Pomeranz (a Brewer in 2019, by the way) somehow has an ERA of 0.70 in 29 appearances this year. It's going to be a fun second half. If the Brewers are the 'Wow, they're almost doing this' underdogs, you need only look about 500 miles to the East to see what success might look like. It has been a perennial tradition of late: Which big free-agent did the Blue Jays miss out on? Shohei Ohtani? Juan Soto? Roki Sasaki? Yeah, all of them. And yet, every year, there has been a low-lying sense that maybe the Blue Jays could be good. Advertisement But the best it got was three 2-0 wild-card sweeps from 2020-2023. This year feels different. They've surged to the top of the AL East at the break, and Mitch Bannon has an inside look at a locker room that truly believes they've got the juice. Some of it has been production from the Jays' stars — Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and George Springer are having great years — and some of it has been that old-as-time truth: Winning breeds winning. Success makes for a looser clubhouse, and when players are having fun, they tend to play better. It's the sort of hell-yeah halo that hovers on teams that we call 'special.' Read Mitch's missive, and it starts to feel a lot like those 'teams of destiny' we've seen cruise into the postseason in years past. The next 2.5 months will tell if it's the real deal or a mirage. If — OK, let's be real … when — ABS is implemented in regular-season games, should there be a buffer zone? Union head Tony Clark says maybe, commissioner Rob Manfred says, 'I don't know why I would want to do that.' Keith Law's division-by-division draft class breakdown continues, with the AL West and the NL East. We all love instant feedback, but a bit of hindsight is also helpful. Let's revisit some of last year's trade grades? Arkansas' Gage Wood threw a no-hitter in the College World Series and was a first-round pick by the Phillies. Learn all about him here. Casey Mize was a can't-miss prospect. Then he was a bust. Now he's an All-Star. Cody Stavenhagen tells you about the Tigers pitcher's journey. A string of words I never expected to write: Livvy Dunne will not get to live in Babe Ruth's old apartment. On the pods: On 'Rates & Barrels,' the crew welcomes Keith Law to talk about the 2025 draft. Most-clicked in our last newsletter: Clayton Kershaw's dugout hot-mic comments during the All-Star Game. 📫 Love The Windup? Check out The Athletic's other newsletters.
New York Times
01-07-2025
- Sport
- New York Times
MLB Power Rankings: Mets, Guardians end June with gloom; Current trends for each team
By Grant Brisbee, Chad Jennings and Levi Weaver Every week, we ask a selected group of our baseball writers — local and national — to rank the teams from first to worst. Here are the collective results. Remember when Blake Snell went on the injured list and the Los Angeles Dodgers' absurdly deep pitching staff began to show some weakness? What was that, four weeks ago? Five weeks ago? (Checks the transactions log…) Advertisement Three months ago! Yes, that sound you hear is the baseball calendar flipping to July. The All-Star break is two weeks away, the trade deadline is a month away and we're beyond the halfway point to Game 162. It's starting to feel like some of these games actually count! April can be misleading, and May can be a month of transition, but June is when we really wrap our heads around what we're seeing. The sample sizes aren't small anymore, and the inevitable shifts toward contention — we're looking at you, Braves and Rangers — stop feeling so certain. For this week's Power Rankings, we look at where each team was trending in June, from the boring to the surging to downright confusing. Record: 53-32 Last Power Ranking: 1 June trend: Boring (the good kind) The Dodgers have a big lead in the NL West again. They're at the top of these rankings again. I'm not sure when The Athletic's first power rankings were, but my guess is that the Dodgers were at the top of those, too. The oldest ones I could find in my own archives were from 2021, and they started with this sentence: Like you were expecting a different team up here. Indeed. A month-by-month trend? The Dodgers don't mess with those. They're on the decade-by-decade plan, and they're still trending up, somehow, even though they can't really pitch. — Grant Brisbee Record: 53-32 Last Power Ranking: 3 June trend: A deep October run We've discussed repeatedly all the things that have gone right for the Tigers this year. Some of them — Spencer Torkelson's breakout, Riley Greene outpacing last year's All-Star campaign, Javier Báez and Gleyber Torres being significant contributors — come with questions of sustainability, sure. But it's a long list, and it has rocketed the Tigers to the top of the AL. Surely not all of those coaches will turn into pumpkins, even if Wenceel Pérez isn't likely to keep his OPS north of 1.000 for the rest of the year. Advertisement But one thing is not in question: Tarik Skubal is an ace's ace. If Detroit can get back into the playoffs — and right now, Baseball Reference says there's a 99.6 percent chance of it happening — the Tigers have the potential to steamroll the rest of the AL field en route to a World Series. — Levi Weaver Record: 48-36 Last Power Ranking: 4 June trend: Catchable As of June 3, the Yankees had a 6 1/2-game lead in the American League East. The best AL team was a pretty clear toss-up between the Yankees and Tigers, and the Yankees had separated themselves from a deep division. In the past month, though, the Yankees have hovered right around .500 while the Rays and Blue Jays have closed the gap to make the AL East a legitimate competition. The Yankees still have playoff odds well above 90 percent — and they still have Aaron Judge, though his June was more very good than historically elite — but they're no longer a singular force in the division or the American League. — Chad Jennings Record: 50-35 Last Power Ranking: 2 June trend: Advantageous The Phillies weren't great in June, but as the Mets fell apart and the Braves continued to spin their tires, the Phillies did enough to take control of the NL East. They moved into first place on the strength of their pitching, with Cristopher Sánchez and Ranger Suárez taking their turns leading this deep rotation that's also been able to lean heavily on Zack Wheeler and Jesús Luzardo. The Phillies moved atop the division mostly without Bryce Harper, whose return puts the lineup back at full strength alongside Trea Turner and Kyle Schwarber. — Jennings Record: 50-34 Last Power Ranking: 7 June trend: Dominance Reports of the Astros' demise were greatly exaggerated, and now they're running away with the AL West behind an unexpected pitching-and-Jeremy-Peña strategy (which hit a roadbump on Monday). There are other contributors, obviously, but Framber Valdez, Hunter Brown and a mostly untouchable bullpen are behind much of the recent winning. Advertisement The Astros aren't scoring as many runs as, oh, the Marlins or Nationals, so there is work to be done if they want to keep coasting to the postseason. That can all be addressed at the deadline, though. For now, they're rolling. — Brisbee Record: 49-35 Last Power Ranking: 6 June trend: Repaving the way We've all agreed by now that 2020 was a pseudo-season, right? 60 games? I mean, it's always better to win than to lose, but even the Dodgers were like 'Yeahhhhhh, cool, but we'd also like a real one.' So the Cubs haven't been division champs for real since 2017, the year after they won the World Series. Clearly, this is a different team. Not only was Pete Crow-Armstrong 15 years old that year, but there's only one player on this year's team — Ian Happ — who played even one big-league game with the Cubs. This is an all-new Cubs team, thriving on its own strength and not the rapidly decaying nostalgia of yesteryear. The Cubs have hit a mini-slump of late, going 4-6 in their last 10 and an even .500 in June while the Brewers, Cardinals and Reds all surged. But the talent appears to be there. It's not time to worry yet. — Weaver Record: 48-37 Last Power Ranking: 5 June trend: Roller coaster As of June 12, the Mets had won six straight and 15 of 18. They were dominant, with a comfortable lead in an NL East expected to be a dogfight. But June 13 began a seven-game losing streak — which started a stretch in which they lost 10 of 11 — and over the weekend, the Mets were swept by the Pirates to finish 12-15 in June. Juan Soto was awesome (highest wRC+ in baseball for the month), but Griffin Canning, Tylor Megill and Kodai Senga went on the IL, straining a rotation that had been an unexpected strength, and the Phillies moved ahead of the Mets in the division. Early June showed how good the Mets can be, but late June showed something else entirely. — Jennings Record: 47-38 Last Power Ranking: 9 June trend: Rays-ish The Rays were not very good last year, and weren't very good in April, either. But they were a little better in May, and their June was about as good as any team in baseball. In other words, the Rays are back! Yandy Díaz is hitting again, Jonathan Aranda and Junior Caminero look like emerging lynchpins, and Ha-Seong Kim could make his organizational debut soon. The Rays pitching has been more good than elite — and they actually have a full rotation instead of a bunch of openers — but the result has been a typically good-if-anonymous Tampa Bay team that's not simply in the mix for a wild card, but also climbing within striking distance of the Yankees for first place in the American League East. — Jennings Advertisement Record: 45-40 Last Power Ranking: 8 June trend: Super weird, man The Giants made their biggest trade in decades, then turned around and used their new superstar to defeat the team he came from. There's momentum, and then there's momentum. They had pure, undistilled momentum – the premium stuff – and they were going to ride it all the way to the World Series, baby. Except the Giants took all that momentum and used it to get their butts kicked by the Marlins and White Sox. In conclusion, June is a land of contrasts, and maybe momentum is only as good as the next day's starting pitcher. The Giants are still as hard to read as they were before the season even started. — Brisbee Record: 45-39 Last Power Ranking: 11 June trend: Unremarkable The Padres are beating the teams they should beat, winning recent home series against the Royals and Nationals, while struggling on the road against divisional opponents. They've outscored the Dodgers in seven games this season – 37 runs scored to just 35 allowed – but they've only won two of those games, which seems hard to do. Their June was nothing but a placeholder for the month that will actually tell you if the Padres are good enough to make the Dodgers sweat. As of now, they're not nearly as close as they should be. — Brisbee Record: 47-37 Last Power Ranking: 10 June trend: Moooommmmmm, they're doing it againnnnn!! We do this every year now. The Brewers lose a star player, a manager, a front office executive, and we think: 'Well, that's going to be the load-bearing wall that brings the whole thing crashing down.' And then every September, we look up, and this Frankenstein monster of castoffs and hole-pluggers is standing on the boat bound for October, waving back at those teams whose well-laid plans simply did not pan out. Advertisement The Brewers went 16-9 in June. That's the best record in June for the entire NL, and trails only the Astros (19-7) for best in baseball. At some point, it should cease to be surprising. Not yet, though. I'm still pleasantly mystified every time. — Weaver Record: 47-39 Last Power Ranking: 14 June trend: Boring, finally The Cardinals were lousy in April. Then they were one of the hottest teams in baseball for May. Now they're somewhere in the middle. So who are the real Cardinals? All of the above. They're probably not as bad or as good as they were in the first two months, respectively, which means their June trend is that of an ordinary team having ordinary successes and failures. A couple more Mays, and they'll win the division easily, but that doesn't mean it's likely or even possible. (Also, that last sentence applied to the Giants throughout the 1960s.) — Brisbee Record: 46-38 Last Power Ranking: 12 June trend: Relevance It's a two-month trend, really. This was supposed to be an era of greatness for the Blue Jays — Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette in their primes, a rotation built over time, more investments this offseason — but they haven't won a playoff game since 2016, and they finished well below .500 last year and April was more of the same. But the Blue Jays have played their way back into the wild card race (and they're at least in the conversation for the division) since May. Alejandro Kirk and José Berríos have been excellent, and over the weekend, the Jays clinched their season series against the Red Sox. The Blue Jays are not exactly front-runners, but they're not afterthoughts either, and their June was good enough to take control of a wild-card spot. — Jennings Record: 44-41 Last Power Ranking: 19 June trend: … also relevance? Advertisement The Reds went 15-10 in June. Elly De La Cruz got hot. Chase Burns debuted and looked unbothered in his first start (though let's ignore his second start on Monday, because whew). Andrew Abbott appears to be a legit top-of-the-rotation starter. Jose Trevino is hitting nearly .300 and has an OPS in the .800s. Spencer Steer hit three home runs in a game that saw Nick Martinez take a no-hitter into the ninth inning. Emilio Pagán has been almost untouchable this month. Now, imagine a healthy Hunter Greene and maybe even a healthy Rhett Lowder joining the rotation in the second half. If they can pick up a bat or two at the deadline, I kinda like the Reds to be a sneak-into-the-playoffs wild-card team. — Weaver Record: 44-40 Last Power Ranking: 13 June trend: Depends on which June you're talking about here The Mariners began June in first place, with a 31-26 record. Ten games into the month, they stood at 33-34 and four games out. The skid has stopped, and they've cobbled together a winning record since then, but they're still losing ground to the absurdly hot Astros. So the Mariners don't have a June trend, per se, as much as they have an understanding that baseball, like life, can come at you quickly. The franchise has been aware of this particular quirk of the sport for about 50 years now, so no one can feign surprise. So far, it's all added up to a very Mariners season, yet again. — Brisbee Record: 38-45 Last Power Ranking: 17 June trend: Reality Last week was the Braves in a nutshell. It started with Chris Sale going on the injured list, after which the Braves actually won a couple before losing three straight — all in the division — culminating in a blowout loss to the Phillies. A lopsided win on Saturday gave them a chance to win a series against Philly, but they lost Sunday's game by a run. Advertisement The end result: a losing record for the week against the two teams currently in control of the NL East. Flashes of the talent that made the Braves preseason favorites, but ultimately the reality of why they're below .500 with playoff odds that were in free fall for much of June. There's enough talent to believe in this team — especially now that Spencer Strider is pitching well again — but it's July 1, and the Braves just don't have the record to support such blind faith. — Jennings Record: 42-42 Last Power Ranking: 15 June trend: Same ol', same ol' The Diamondbacks can hit the snot out of the ball. They led the sport in runs scored last year, and they have the third-highest total in baseball this year. It's been good enough for fourth place so far. They'll need to prevent runs if they're going to make the postseason, which was also the book on them entering this year. They spent a lot of money to address this problem, but they ended up right back where they started. The last team to lead its league in runs in consecutive seasons without making the playoffs was the 2015-2016 Rockies. There are better role models for an NL West team to follow. — Brisbee Record: 41-44 Last Power Ranking: 20 June trend: A species of fear I didn't expect to quote Rene Descartes in the Power Rankings, but this quote — from 'Passions of the Soul' — seems to fit this year's Texas Rangers: 'Indecision is also a species of fear that, holding the soul, as it were, in suspense between several actions it might carry out, causes it to perform none of them, and thus gives it the time to make a proper choice before opting for one of them. In which respect, it is genuinely of some use. But when it lasts longer than it should, and causes us to squander on deliberation the time we need in order to act, it is very bad.' Advertisement The Rangers have spent three months in conflict with themselves, deliberating which aspect — the Octoberish pitching or the deadline-selloffish hitting — will be their defining trait. They still look capable of winning or losing ~87 games. Figure it out, fellas. — Weaver Record: 42-44 Last Power Ranking: 16 June trend: Mediocrity April was pretty good, May was pretty bad and June was pretty meh. A hot streak, then a losing streak. Pull above .500, then fall back below. Top prospect Roman Anthony was promoted from Triple-A, and less than a week later, face-of-the-franchise Rafael Devers was traded to San Francisco. The Red Sox have settled in as the fourth-best team in a predictably deep division, and the past month suggested that's about where they belong. Not awful, but not great. Can the return of Alex Bregman and the season debut of Masataka Yoshida make a difference? Will they buy or sell at the deadline? Fair questions, but the team isn't exactly trending toward definitive answers. — Jennings Record: 40-44 Last Power Ranking: 21 June trend: Disaster imminent! Or maybe another 13-game winning streak! Who knows!!!! After a red-hot May (18-8), the Twins went 9-18 in June. Add in an 0-4 March and a 13-14 April, and you have a team that — much like last year — just can't seem to be normal. Did you know that the Twins have made the playoffs seven times in the past 20 years and have gone a combined 1-21 in the postseason? With players like Byron Buxton and Harrison Bader (both 31 years old), Carlos Correa (30), and Chris Paddack, Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober and Pablo López (all 29), you could make the argument that the Twins could hope for another second-half hot streak. And if it doesn't work out? Ehhhh, no big deal, let's reload for 2026. Advertisement But if this core is this predisposed to extreme streakiness (and never in October), is it time to consider tearing it down and rebuilding with more consistent building blocks? — Weaver Record: 40-42 Last Power Ranking: 18 June trend: Irrelevance? Over the last 10 years, the Guardians have made the playoffs six times. On the four occasions in which they missed it, they finished second in the division three times and third place once. They're in second place right now, too — but that's only because the Twins and Royals have somehow been worse in June (and the White Sox had a head start on losing games). Check out these June records in the AL Central: Detroit: 15-11 (.577) White Sox: 10-16 (.385) Guardians: 9-16 (.360) Twins: 9-18 (.333) Royals: 8-18 (.308) How depressing. Anyway, the Guardians haven't hit and their pitching hasn't been able to save them. They're still within shouting distance of a wild-card position, but they're going to have to get back to 'Guards Ball.'— Weaver Record: 39-46 Last Power Ranking: 22 June trend: One step back The stories of the Tigers and Royals were twin flames last year — two AL Central teams ascending from the mire to claim a surprise playoff spot. But while the Tigers have continued to improve this year, the Royals look more like the 2023 squad that finished 56-106. OK, they're not quite that bad. But they're definitely not on pace to hit last year's 86-win mark, either. Two encouraging signs: going into Monday night's game against the Mariners, Kansas City's starting pitchers still ranked in a tie for sixth-best ERA in the sport (with the Yankees, 3.41). Maikel Garcia is finally having a breakout season, and Bobby Witt Jr. is still very good (and only 25). Alas, that hasn't translated into many wins, especially recently. — Weaver Advertisement Record: 41-42 Last Power Ranking: 23 June trend: Hope? Honest to goodness hope? The Angels are in the postseason picture. They're in the back of the picture, and you have to zoom in until everything is super pixelated, but they're back there. They're kind of making a funny face, but they're not doing it on purpose. They just didn't know they were going to be in the picture. Let me start over. The Angels are in the postseason picture, and they got there with a strong June. They're hovering around .500, so let's not go nuts with the expectations, but they're happy to be there. After the dreadful April they had, and considering they've still been outscored by about 50 runs on the season, they still have plenty to prove. But the obvious preseason picks, such as the Braves, would love to be in their position. That's something, right? — Brisbee Record: 37-47 Last Power Ranking: 24 June trend: Too little, too late The fact is, the Orioles weren't bad in June. Winning record. Swept the Mariners and Angels. Scored 22 runs in a game against the Rays. Gunnar Henderson had his best month of the year, Jordan Westburg got healthy, and Adley Rutschman was really good (before he got hurt). Charlie Morton even pitched well! But what good does that do for a team that won only nine games in April and only nine more in May? At this point, the Orioles' playoff odds have been stuck in single digits for almost two months. So, what should we make of a decent June? It's kept them from being truly awful, but the trade deadline is a month away, and that's surely not enough time to avoid being sellers. — Jennings Record: 36-50 Last Power Ranking: 26 June trend: A late mirage With Monday's 7-0 win over the Cardinals, the Pirates did a couple of things. Advertisement First, at 14-13, they had their first winning month since last year's mirage, which carried on into July. Second, it was their fourth straight win by seven or more runs. Per the Pirates' broadcast crew, that's their longest such stretch since 1925. 1925! The Pirates haven't been good lately, but counting that 1925 season, they're 4-1 in World Series appearances since then! Alas, when they break this record again someday, researchers won't have the satisfying conclusion of '1925? Oh yeah, they won the World Series that year, that tracks.' Instead, they'll look back and go, 'They did that in 2025? The year they couldn't even win all those Paul Skenes starts? Baseball is weird, man.' — Weaver Record: 37-45 Last Power Ranking: 27 June trend: Meh I mean, look, the Marlins had a winning record last month. Their run differential was pretty close to even, Otto Lopez was great, Kyle Stowers kept putting up good numbers, and Sandy Alcantara finally had a decent month (especially if you ignore his last start). The Marlins even moved out of last place. It was good. But still. Meh. The Marlins won a ton last week, so they're trending upward, but the season already is what it is. A decent month and a really good week count as a meaningful high point, but the bigger picture is still just … the Marlins. — Jennings Record: 35-49 Last Power Ranking: 25 June trend: Bottom of the barrel The worst record in June? You might assume the Rockies or the White Sox, or maybe you noticed a team like the Royals falling fast and would wonder if they were the worst. But, no, it was the Nationals. Coming off a winning record in May — when they actually moved up to third place in the division — the Nationals plummeted in May, falling behind even the Marlins to last place in the NL East. CJ Abrams, James Wood and MacKenzie Gore kept playing well, but the team as a whole fell apart. — Jennings Advertisement Record: 35-52 Last Power Ranking: 27 June trend: Regular bad, not historically bad Whew. It was getting really ugly there for a bit. The A's gave up 195 runs in May, which was one of the worst performances from any pitching staff in any month over the last quarter-century. Actually, three of the 10 worst pitching months since 2000 belong to the A's. I wonder if there's some sort of common thread, like ownership, that could partially explain that. Some things will just have to remain a mystery! The A's pitching this month has been just regular bad, which is good, because Sacramento isn't about to get cooler over the next couple months. Say what you want about the status or direction of the franchise, but A's pitchers don't deserve to have the deck stacked against them even more than it already is. Just let them be a regular-bad pitching staff in peace. — Brisbee Record: 28-56 Last Power Ranking: 29 June trend: I mean, the only way left is up, right? The White Sox had the division's second-best record in June. Sure, it was 10-16, but considering they were 5-21 in April (and 9-19 last June), this is technically an improvement, right? And after spending almost every week in the No. 30 spot in the power rankings last year, they've consistently finished in 29th this year. Hey, did you know that Adrian Houser has a 2.93 ERA in five starts in June, and Dan Altavilla, Steven Wilson and Tyler Gilbert have combined to allow one earned run in 18 innings out of the bullpen? I don't know if this is relevant or helpful. I just got bored with telling you how bad the White Sox are. — Weaver Record: 19-65 Last Power Ranking: 30 June trend: Bad, but not historically awful Some teams would feel uncomfortable with a trend of 'bad, but not historically awful,' but not the Rockies. They're trending upward, and how. They were just 2-10 at Coors Field in June, but they finished with an 8-6 record on the road, which means they might have just had their best road month in years. Heck, that might be enough to be a top-10 road month in franchise history. Advertisement You have to understand that such a thing will not be researched by me for the last capsule in a very long power ranking that nobody will actually read to the end. But I'd like to imagine it's the start of a new franchise-wide trend that will last for a decade. The Rockies? They're just better on the road. Everyone knows that. And it all started in June 2025. — Brisbee (Top photo of Steven Kwan: Frank Jansky / Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
New York Times
23-06-2025
- Sport
- New York Times
Recapping all of baseball's weekend run-ins. Plus: Phillies headline upward trends
The Windup Newsletter ⚾ | This is The Athletic's MLB newsletter. Sign up here to receive The Windup directly in your inbox. What an intense weekend that was, eh? Plus: The Phillies head up our heat check, and Ken has more Mets-Phillies notes. I'm Levi Weaver, here with Ken Rosenthal — welcome to the Windup! What a wild and full weekend it was. Let's try to catch you up on all the spirited action: Dodgers vs. Padres: Benches cleared. Managers got hilariously chippy. The games were dramatic and chaotic (Jomboy has a very entertaining two-part breakdown). Padres skipper Mike Shildt says he has no regrets about how his team handled it during the win. Advertisement Astros vs. Angels: Hunter Brown hit Zach Neto with a pitch. Neto yelled at Brown; Brown yelled right back. Benches cleared. Pirates vs. Tigers fans: Dennis Santana took a swing at a fan. Tommy Pham had other fans thrown out of the game. Toss in some rain delays, a doubleheader and a manager ejection, and it was quite a day. Rafael Devers vs. Red Sox: This one didn't get heated, though Devers did homer against his old team. In interviews, he demurred, insisting that the Red Sox were in his past, which felt chilly. The Giants took two of three over the weekend. Jazz Chisholm vs. Orioles catchers: Neither collision seemed malicious, but in the first one — which injured O's catcher Maverick Handley — Chisholm had already lost a shoe. In the second, he had to be reminded to touch home plate after Gary Sánchez dropped the ball. Cal Raleigh vs. baseballs: The Mariners catcher has 31 home runs now, breaking records and putting him on pace for 66 this year. Elly De La Cruz vs. his lunch: De La Cruz vomited on the field on Saturday, but stayed in the game and later hit a mammoth go-ahead homer. Umpires vs. Coastal Carolina: In the latest edition of 'Are Umpires OK?' … In the first inning of a College World Series elimination game, home plate umpire Angel Campos escalated an argument, then ejected Coastal Carolina head coach Kevin Schnall. First-base coach Matt Schilling was also tossed. LSU, by the way, won the game, securing its eighth national championship. Maybe Campos would benefit from reading this interview with former MLB ump Dale Scott? Jacob Misiorowski vs. all hitters: In Misiorowski's debut, the 23-year-old Brewers starter pitched five no-hit innings before leg cramping ended his night. In his second start, he took a perfect game into the seventh inning. That 11-inning no-hit stretch set the modern record (since 1900) for most no-hit innings by a starting pitcher to begin his career. Meanwhile, in New York, Clarke Schmidt pitched seven no-hit innings on Saturday before being removed for a reliever. Advertisement Dodgers vs. secret police: On the day the team was scheduled to announce plans to donate $1 million to families impacted by immigrant raids, masked federal immigration agents were denied entry to stadium parking lots by team officials. The team said it was ICE, but the organization denied it, saying it was Customs and Border Patrol. The confusion is understandable — both are Department of Homeland Security agencies whose agents are sometimes masked and unmarked. On Saturday, protesters convened at Dodger Stadium, calling on the team to do more to oppose the mass deportations. There was at least one story of reconciliation: Sammy Sosa returned to Wrigley Field for the first time in 21 years. Leftover notes from Saturday's Mets-Phillies broadcast on Fox: Juan Soto's speed: Soto has stolen eight bases in nine attempts; his career high is 12. Soto said Mets first-base coach Antoan Richardson makes base stealing fun for him, providing him with information no one else in the league has. Richardson helps Soto come up with a game plan based on pitchers' and catchers' tendencies, and encourages him to use his instincts and athleticism. Soto's baseball IQ, Richardson said, is 'really, really high.' The coach added, 'When we talk the game and I see him execute the information that's given to him, it's as good as anybody else I've been around.' Frankie Montas' return: Out all season with a right lat strain, Montas is expected to make his Mets debut tomorrow against the Braves. Montas had a 13.19 ERA in four rehab starts at Triple A and is not fully built up, but the Mets believe they've identified a mechanical flaw that is holding him back. Montas corrects the problem in his bullpen sessions, but has been reverting to his bad habits during games. His most recent outing was better, but he is unlikely to give the Mets length in his first several starts. Advertisement Trea Turner's defense: Turner has worked hard to improve his defense. It's showing in his metrics, and he could sense that he is making plays he did not in the past. Turner said the biggest difference is that he has slowed down — a difficult thing to do, when a shortstop's instinct is to go for every ball hit in his direction. He is taking a split-second longer to react to the ball and putting himself in better position to catch it. By doing that, he's in better position to throw. His exchange needs to be quicker. But he's reading hops better. J.T. Realmuto's bounce-back: He has rebounded from a difficult first two months with a strong offensive month of June. Realmuto made an adjustment in his load that is enabling him to drive the ball to right-center, which is what he does best. A potential free agent who will be 35 next season, Realmuto isn't sure how long he wants to play. But he said his body feels better than it did the second half of last season, when he was still dealing with inflammation in his right knee coming off surgery. He said he'll know when it's time to retire, and his family will have a say. He and his wife Alexis have four children, ages 2 to 6. Speaking of those two teams, folks: The NL East has a new leader. After last night's 7-1 win over the Mets, the Phillies sit atop the division (again). They were last tied for the division lead on May 31, but fell to five games back on June 11. But as the Mets went into a recent seven-game losing streak, Philly got hot. The Phillies actually re-took first place Friday with a win in the series opener, but the Mets evened things up Saturday, snapping that losing streak. The Phillies are a league-best 8-2 in their last 10 games, while the Mets are 2-8. Making matters worse, they just demoted catcher Francisco Alvarez to the minors. Other upward trends: The Astros, Rays, Red Sox, Braves, Brewers and Dodgers are all 7-3 in their last 10 games. For the Braves, the hot streak — even after sweeping the Mets — only pulls them to within 11 games in the division. Meanwhile, the Brewers now trail the Cubs by just 3 1/2 games in the NL Central, the Astros have extended their lead in the AL West to five games over the Mariners and the Dodgers are 3 1/2 games up on the Giants. In the AL East, the surges by the Rays and Red Sox have come at a good time, because … Other downward trends: The Yankees — even on a two-game winning streak — are still 3-7 in their last 10 games, diminishing their division lead to just 2 1/2 games over the Rays, with the Blue Jays (4) and Red Sox (6) in pursuit. Of note: Sox have lost their last two games, and recently sent infielder Kristian Campbell to the minors and pitcher Hunter Dobbins to the IL. So maybe the Red Sox are on both lists, here. Advertisement Other teams are in more dire stretches. The Twins are 6-14 in the month of June, 1-9 in their last 10, and now sit 11 games back in the AL Central. The struggles of the White Sox and Nats (each 2-8 in their last 10) — as well as Pittsburgh (3-7) — are no surprise, but here's something that is: The Rockies aren't on this list. They're 5-5 in their last 10 games. Chris Sale is on the IL after fracturing his ribcage while making a diving play. Impressive: He stayed in the game and struck out Pete Alonso after the injury. Angels manager Ron Washington has taken a leave of absence to deal with an undisclosed health matter. Jim Bowden suggests one impactful trade for each wild-card contender. Giants reliever Sean Hjelle is still active, but the team acknowledged it is aware of recent allegations of abuse and has forwarded the matter to MLB. Most-clicked in our last newsletter: Cody Stavenhagen's story on the Tigers pitching prospect who throws an 88 mph knuckleball. 📫 Love The Windup? Check out The Athletic's other newsletters.
