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Yahoo
19-06-2025
- Politics
- Yahoo
Is Thailand on the Cusp of Another Coup?
Thai police stand outside the Government House in Bangkok on June 19, 2025, in anticipation of Thai protests to call for the government's resignation. Credit - Lillian Suwanrumpha—AFP/Getty Images Domestic regime change is no stranger to Thailand, which has had at least 12 successful coups and 31 Prime Ministers since the founding of its current constitutional monarchy in 1932—itself the product of a coup. It's for that reason that Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra, who took over after her fellow Pheu Thai party predecessor Srettha Thavisin was ousted from power last year, has sought to insulate the government against military takeovers, which have typically occurred in conjunction with conservative, royalist elites. It's likely, however, that she's failed. Amid an escalating crisis sparked by border tensions with neighbor Cambodia, experts and observers of Thai politics tell TIME that Paetongtarn is all but certain to be deposed within months, if not imminently. She would follow in the path of her father, divisive but influential Thai power broker and former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, as well as her aunt, former Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra, who were both forced out of office early in 2006 and 2014, respectively. Whether by coup or political maneuvering, how exactly Paetongtarn may leave remains to be seen. But Thailand's increasingly likely change in leadership—and the uncertainty that inevitably will follow—comes at a trying time of both economic headwinds and geopolitical challenges, threatening to throw the country into further instability. Here's what to know. Srettha—and by extension Paetongtarn—only attained the premiership through a faustian bargain after 2023's election saw the progressive, pro-reform Move Forward party receive the most votes but just shy of the majority needed to form the government. Pheu Thai, a populist party that placed second and was initially seen to be more aligned with Move Forward, partnered instead with conservative minority parties, including some of the pro-military forces it had campaigned against, to form a coalition of unlikely allies. Now, that coalition is splintering apart. The government that was formed on a shaky foundation started showing cracks last December, when Pheu Thai lawmakers sought to pass anti-coup legislation that was opposed by other members of its coalition. On the 11th anniversary of the nation's 2014 coup last month, Deputy Prime Minister and Defense Minister Phumtham Wechayachai told reporters that Thailand had made democratic progress since then, but he couldn't 'rule it out' that there would be 'no more coups.' A border dispute with Cambodia just days later significantly raised the possibility that the next coup could come quite soon. On May 28, a longstanding row between Cambodia and Thailand was reignited after an early morning clash in the so-called Emerald Triangle that left a Cambodian soldier dead. The incident has inflamed nationalist sentiment on both sides of the border, and some have speculated—without evidence—that it may have been a 'calculated provocation by hardline elements within the military.' Since then, the two countries' Prime Ministers, Thailand's Paetongtarn and Cambodia's Hun Manet have engaged in diplomatic back-and-forths, but have generally tried to keep the peace. The Royal Thai Army, however, said it was on high alert, announcing that it was ready for a 'high-level military operation … to defend the country's sovereignty to the fullest extent if the situation is called for.' Amid allegations from some critics that she was already 'too soft' on Cambodia in the dispute given a longstanding friendship between her father Thaksin and Hun Manet's father, former Cambodia Prime Minister Hun Sen, Paetongtarn came under intense scrutiny following the leak on Wednesday of part of a phone call with Hun Sen, in which she called him 'Uncle' and promised to 'take care' of his concerns, even referring to a prominent Thai army commander as being part of 'the opposite side.' Despite the commander in question saying he didn't mind, the call immediately ignited controversy and calls for Paetongtarn's resignation, which she has refused. Paetongtarn defended the call as a 'negotiation technique' but apologized for the 'public resentment' it caused. Hun Sen admitted to recording the call and said that he shared it with around 80 people. He also released the full audio, which ran for more than 17 minutes, on his social media platform, explaining that he believed recording was necessary 'in order to avoid any misunderstanding or misrepresentation in official matters.' The Thai foreign ministry criticized Cambodia, saying the release of the call undermined neighborly 'trust and respect' as well as 'good faith' efforts to resolve the border dispute peacefully. Since the call, Pheu Thai's governing coalition lost its second biggest member: the conservative Bhumjaithai party, which announced that the call was to blame, though tensions had been building between its leader, former Prime Minister candidate Anutin Charnvirakul, and Paetongtarn over a fight for control of the influential Interior Ministry. 'Bhumjaithai will work with all Thai people to support the army and officials who safeguard the sovereignty, territorial integrity, and interests of Thailand in all ways,' Bhumjaithai said in a statement. Amid concerns of a looming coup, the Thai army chief urged the Thai public on Thursday to remain united and trustful of the military to uphold the democratic system. Paetongtarn, during her hasty call-apology press conference, also sought to quell rumors of a power struggle. 'The government and armed forces are united, so I call on the people to have unity with the government,' she said. 'We should not fight among ourselves.' Still, Natthaphong Ruengpanyawut, the leader of the opposition People's Party that grew out of the dissolved Move Forward party, called on Paetongtarn to return 'the mandate to the people' by dissolving parliament, which would lead to a snap election. (Barring an early dissolution, the next Thai general election wouldn't need to be called until 2027.) 'This will prevent certain groups from exploiting Paetongtarn's mistake and inciting an incident that could harm our democracy,' Natthaphong said. 'History is repeating itself,' Napon Jatusripitak, visiting fellow and acting coordinator of the Thailand Studies Programme at the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute in Singapore, tells TIME. The Shinawatra dynasty, Napon says, 'had other ways to play this out,' but 'they are shooting themselves in the foot here by making it easy for conservative hardliners to label them as betraying the country, selling the country out for their own family's private benefit.' Royalist and conservative factions already had deep-seated mistrust of Paetongtarn because of her father Thaksin, who is widely seen as pulling the strings behind the scenes. Mark S. Cogan, associate professor of peace and conflict studies at Kansai Gaidai University, described the Cambodia border crisis as 'icing on top of this cake,' as the Paetongtarn government was already losing public confidence for failing to effectuate its populist campaign promises, including revitalizing the economy with a 'soft power' push. Distrust of the Shinawatras, Pheu Thai's failure to deliver material improvements to people's lives, and the Cambodia border crisis created the 'perfect storm to rally opposition,' says Napon. The army may not even need to get involved to remove Paetongtarn, says Termsak Chalermpalanupap, a visiting senior fellow at the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute. With Bhumjaithai's defection to the opposition, all that's likely needed is the resignation of another medium-sized party from the coalition government, such as the United Thai Nation Party, an ultra-conservative pro-military party. It may be 'too soon' to call for the dissolution of parliament, says Termsak, as the last general elections happened so recently. 'There is still a possibility that some caretaker Prime Minister can step in and then try to settle the border issue first.' But so far, as Paetongtarn has rebuffed calls to resign, her removal may have to be orchestrated by the courts, similar to her aunt Yingluck and her predecessor Srettha. Paetongtarn's call with Hun Sen has already prompted ethics complaints. On Thursday, a Thai Senate committee said it will petition the Conservative Court and the National Anti-Corruption Commission to remove Paetongtarn for her 'alleged mishandling of Thai-Cambodia border disputes.' Cogan believes it will be 'very difficult [for Paetongtarn] to recover' from the call scandal. Instead, Pheu Thai would be wise, he says, to try 'managing the decline' and 'salvaging what's left' of the party's domestic agenda. 'There is no good time for regime change,' Cogan says, explaining that a change in leadership threatens the continuity of both domestic and international policies. 'Geopolitically, we are dealing with a new series of flash points,' says Napon. 'It comes at a time when we haven't finalized any negotiations in tariffs with the Trump Administration.' The World Bank lowered the economic growth prospects for the Southeast Asian country, and Thailand's economy is expected to take another hit when U.S. President Donald Trump's 'Liberation Day' tariffs—at a rate of 36% for Thailand—are set to go back into effect after a temporary global reduction ends in July. Napon adds that it would be 'highly disastrous' for Thailand to undergo a regime change that's military-led. Thailand's past military interventions have seen massive democratic crackdowns—including restrictions on freedom of assembly and rampant use of lese majeste laws to silence critics. While the last Thai election brought hopes of a trend toward democracy, Napon warns that if the military returns to power, 'there may not be a quick reversal to [a] democratic regime.' Contact us at letters@
Atlantic
13-06-2025
- Politics
- Atlantic
Photos of the Week: Treetop Walk, Camel Bath, Moose Move
Protests against federal immigration operations in California, a Catholic pilgrimage in Spain, a lawn-mower race in France, a rescue operation in the Mediterranean, and much more A volunteer uses a syringe to feed medicine to a fox after it was rescued, at the hospital run by the Fox Project near Tonbridge, England, on May 22, 2025. It was released on June 9. Timur Matahari / AFP / Getty Local tourists enjoy white-water rafting on the Palayangan River in the Pangalengan district of Bandung, West Java, on June 8, 2025. Lillian Suwanrumpha / AFP / Getty Visitors take pictures at Khlong Lan waterfall in Khlong Lan National Park, in Thailand's upper-central Kamphaeng Phet province, on June 10, 2025. Stefano Rellandini / AFP / Getty A humanoid robot named Alter-Ego, developed by the Italian Institute of Technology, stands in front of a dolphin during a test event at the Aquarium of Genoa, Italy, on June 10, 2025. The robot interacted with visitors by providing information about cetaceans and their conservation. Fatemeh Bahrami / Anadolu / Getty An aerial view of camels in the sea on Qeshm Island, located near the Strait of Hormuz in southern Iran, on June 2, 2025. Shepherds give their camels sea baths during the summer months to keep them keep clean and cool in the intense heat. Alex Wroblewski / AFP / Getty Congressional staffers from the office of Senator Jeanne Shaheen of New Hampshire move Marty the Moose to her office in the Hart Senate Office Building in Washington, D.C., on June 10, 2025, as part of the annual Experience New Hampshire event. A banner with a photograph of President Donald Trump hangs behind a section of eight-foot-tall security fencing outside the Agriculture Department, on June 12, 2025, in Washington, D.C., ahead of this weekend's military parade and gathering on the National Mall. Tayfun Coskun / Anadolu / Getty Hundreds of protesters gather in Los Angeles on June 8, 2025, to demand an immediate end to ICE workplace raids, as the Trump administration continues its immigration operations in the city. Police officers stand in line outside the Geffen Contemporary at MOCA, in front of Barbara Kruger's artwork Untitled (Questions) , in Los Angeles, as police clashed with protesters nearby, on June 8, 2025. Anti-ICE protesters march in downtown San Antonio, Texas, on June 11, 2025. Ronaldo Schemidt / AFP / Getty L.A. County Sheriff's Department deputies fire a nonlethal weapon at a man after he threw a can at them following a protest against federal immigration operations near L.A. City Hall, on June 11, 2025. Vortices swirl in the air as a Japan Ground Self-Defense Force V-22 Osprey aircraft flies during a live-fire exercise at the East Fuji Maneuver Area on June 08, 2025, in Gotemba, Shizuoka Prefecture, Japan. Silas Stein / DPA / Getty A view from an observation tower on the treetop walk in Bad Wildbad, in Baden-Württemberg, Germany, on June 8, 2025 Hazem Bader / AFP / Getty Muslims perform the evening prayer around the Kaaba, Islam's holiest shrine, in the Grand Mosque complex, in Mecca, Saudi Arabia, on June 6, 2025. Pilgrims light candles at the shrine of El Rocío near Aznalcázar, Spain, on June 7, 2025, during an annual pilgrimage of devotees of the Virgin del Rocío. Jaime Perez Rivero / Anadolu / Getty A boat carrying 86 migrants from Sudan, Mali, Nigeria, and Ghana departed Libya on June 5, heading for Europe across the Mediterranean Sea. The boat ran into trouble, and during an ensuing rescue operation, the sight of the Libyan Coast Guard caused panic among those on board, causing many to jump into the sea, fearing they would be sent back to Libya. Members of the Spain-based NGO Open Arms and others were able to rescue all aboard. Cars drive away from a storm during a Project ICECHIP operation to study hail and powerful storms on June 5, 2025, in Morton, Texas. Activists with the Gilbert Baker Foundation carry a 1,000-foot rainbow flag along the parade route during the WorldPride 2025 celebrations, on June 7, 2025, in Washington, D.C. Jaime Saldarriaga / AFP / Getty A tattoo artist works on a client during the 15th Expotattoo Colombia Fair in Medellín, Colombia, on June 7, 2025. Patrick Pleul / DPA / Getty A male stag beetle walks on a branch in an oak forest near the Spree River in Kersdorf, Brandenburg, Germany, on June 8, 2025. Brookfield Zoo's Pepe visits the pitcher's mound prior to a baseball game between the the Kansas City Royals and the Chicago White Sox in Chicago, on June 8, 2025. Andrew Milligan / PA Images / Getty Meerkat pups play at Blair Drummond Safari Park, near Stirling, Scotland. Four pups were born on May 10 to parents Cardi B and Biggie—the third litter for the pair since they came to the park in 2022. Francois Nascimbeni / AFP / Getty Drivers compete during the tenth edition of the 24-hour lawn mower endurance race in Les Petites-Armoises, France, on June 7, 2025. Pope Leo XIV waves as he arrives in the popemobile for the Pentecost Vigil prayer at St Peter's Square, on June 7, 2025, in Vatican City. Pilgrims stand on the shore of the Quema River near Aznalcázar, Spain, a crucial point in the annual Catholic pilgrimage to the shrine of the Virgin of El Rocío, on June 6, 2025. Walter Diaz / AFP / Getty A view of the Perito Moreno Glacier at Los Glaciares National Park, near El Calafate, Santa Cruz province, Argentina, on June 8, 2025 Wang Wangwang / VCG / Getty An aerial view of the 'Fudao' walkway winding through the forest of Jinniu Mountain Park, on June 11, 2025, in Fuzhou, Fujian province, China Sam Panthaky / AFP / Getty Part of the tail section of Air India flight 171 is pictured after it crashed in a residential area near the airport in Ahmedabad, India, on June 12, 2025. The London-bound passenger plane crashed shortly after takeoff, smashing into buildings, and 241 of the people aboard the plane were reportedly killed, with only one survivor. Alan Taylor is a senior editor at The Atlantic.
New York Times
28-03-2025
- General
- New York Times
Live Updates: Strong Earthquake Strikes Myanmar
A 7.7-magnitude earthquake struck central Myanmar on Friday, the United States Geological Survey said, damaging buildings there and shaking cities across a vast expanse of Southeast Asia, as far as Bangkok, in neighboring Thailand. The quake struck near Mandalay, Myanmar's second-largest city of more than a million people, around 12:50 p.m. local time the agency said. An aftershock of magnitude 6.4 was recorded 12 minutes later at a nearby location. A magnitude of 7.7 is considered to be strong. At a depth of about six miles, the quake was relatively shallow, which made it likely to cause violent shaking. After the tremor in Mandalay, people were rushed to the main hospital. Images taken in that city that were posted on social media showed a bridge that had crashed into a river. Others showed damaged buildings. Details about the extent of the damage and casualties in Myanmar were not immediately available. The nation has been ravaged by a civil war that began after the military seized power in a coup four years ago. Video from Bangkok showed people in panic in the streets and inside buildings like shopping centers. In central Bangkok, the streets were full of people who were afraid of aftershocks or were not allowed back into their buildings. Traffic was at a virtual standstill. Videos uploaded to social media and verified by The New York Times showed the collapse of a 30-story skyscraper that was under construction in the Chatuchak district of Bangkok. The videos showed construction workers and passers-by running for safety, while other videos filmed from an elevated highway showed large clouds of dust and debris engulfing the surrounding area. Thai media reports described the building as the new Office of the Auditor General. Rescue teams on Friday at a construction site in Bangkok, where a building collapsed. Credit... Lillian Suwanrumpha/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images The shaking was also felt west of Myanmar in Bangladesh, including in its capital, Dhaka, but there were no immediate reports of damage. The earthquake also shook buildings in Vietnam, including Hanoi, the capital, and Ho Chi Minh City, the state-run news outlet VnExpress reported. Saif Hasnat contributed reporting from Dhaka, Bangladesh, and Richard C. Paddock in Bangkok.
