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Business Insider
18-07-2025
- Business
- Business Insider
'Black Swan' author Nassim Taleb shares 4 life lessons — and reveals what keeps him awake at night
Nassim Nicholas Taleb, the author of "The Black Swan" and "Antifragile," has advice for navigating this period of economic instability, geopolitical upset, and technological upheaval: Stick to what you believe in, future-proof yourself against AI, exercise your mind and body, and have a holistic view of success. The scholar, statistician, and former hedge fund manager also shared what keeps him up at night. Here are four life lessons he shared during a wide-ranging interview with Business Insider. 1. Have the discipline to stick to what you said you'd do A cornerstone of success is having the "discipline to stick to what you promise you're going to do, and do it in the best possible way," Taleb said. Universa Investments, a "Black Swan" fund where he serves as a distinguished scientific advisor, specializes in protecting client portfolios against rare and extreme market events. It now has more than $20 billion in assets under management. The fund has spent "two decades doing the same trades, and we haven't drifted," Taleb said. "If you stick to something that you really believe in, you should never stray," he continued. 2. Future-proof yourself against AI Taleb championed the "Lindy Effect," the theory that the longer an idea, technology, or cultural practice has survived, the longer it is likely to continue to survive. "AI is not denting Lindy skills," he said, advising people to work in "robust" professions less likely to be displaced by AI. He pointed to gardening, nursing, cooking, plumbing, and masonry as "essential" skills that AI can't replace for now. The AI revolution marks the "first time in history" that white-collar knowledge professions are "in danger" relative to manual trades, he said. 3. Exercise your mind and body Taleb told BI that he does 10 to 15 hours of exercise a week, and emphasized that working both the mind and body is essential to living a good, long life. "We all underestimate how much exercise we need," Taleb said. "Being sedentary requires a lot more exercise than we think." He praised Wall Street legend Ed Thorp, 92, for remaining "athletic, in shape, mentally sharp." Now that Taleb is no longer running a hedge fund, he relishes having more free time to read widely and dig into anything that intrigues him, he said. 4. Redefine success as more than getting rich "What I consider success is looking at yourself in the mirror and not being ashamed," Taleb told BI. Taleb, who was born in Lebanon, said his concept of success extends beyond having a great career and making money. It also involves behaving ethically, being useful to others, surrounding yourself with grandchildren and other family members, and being loved by your community. What keeps him awake at night When asked what keeps him awake at night, Taleb said he fretted over the "physical and financial health" of friends and family. Taleb said it's troubling when he sees older people "realize they don't have enough for retirement." A key underlying issue is that advanced economies "struggle to keep the momentum going" as they mature, leading to slower growth and "less of a good future" for their citizens. "They don't realize the dangers," Taleb said. "That worries me." The system "worked for a few generations because people were always doing better than their parents," but that's no longer true for many, he said.
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Business Standard
30-04-2025
- Business
- Business Standard
How much should you allocate to gold in your portfolio this Akshaya Tritiya?
With gold prices scaling past the ₹100,000 per 10 grams recently and making the yellow metal out of reach for some, is it still advisable to buy the yellow metal at the current prices this Akshaya Tritiya, and how much money should allocate to gold in your portfolio? According to a note by Capitalmind Financial Services, gold portfolios with just a 5–10 per cent allocation to gold often achieve better risk-adjusted returns than equity-only portfolios. '50:50 portfolio of gold and the Nifty 50, rebalanced annually, outperformed standalone investments in either asset over more than two decades. This counterintuitive result underscores the Lindy Effect in action — where longevity and resilience in systems or strategies increase their likelihood of enduring success," the note said. In early 1980, investors, the note said, were inspired by the stellar returns of the 1970s. If they invested in gold back then, they would have faced two decades of negative returns. 'In early 2000, after dismissing gold during the poor-performing 1980s and 1990s, investors would have missed its massive rally in the 2000s. This unpredictability underscores why systematically rebalancing portfolios is critical,' the note said. Why are gold prices rising? The recent rally in gold that took the prices of the yellow metal past the Rs 100,000 per 10 gram mark in India has been triggered by US tariff fears as it fueled safe-haven demand. The $800an ounce price surge in gold in 2024/25, analysts said, is related to trade-related uncertainties. Yuan depreciation (19-month low versus trade partners' currencies) also accelerated gold buying as a safe-haven asset. Gold returns USD vs INR 'The returns on gold in INR and USD were fairly similar up until 1990, largely due to India's capital controls and protectionist policies. However, the post-1991 reforms, including trade liberalisation and currency decontrol, entrenched a more market-driven exchange rate,' Capitalmind said. Gold price outlook Analysts feel there is more steam left in gold price rally and investors should use the dips to buy the yellow metal. Analysts at Motilal Oswal Financial Services (MOFSL), for instance, expect gold prices to hit the ₹106,000 mark in the long run. 'Investors can start accumulating gold near ₹90,000-91,000 for the long-term targets of ₹106,000. The metal has resistance near ₹99,000 levels,' wrote Manav Modi, senior analyst for commodity research at MOFSL in a recent report. READ ABOUT IT HERE Gold demand outlook One casualty of the surge in prices, according to analysts, could be retail demand for gold. A Crisil Ratings analysis of 60 gold jewellery retailers, which account for a third of the revenue of the organised jewellery sector, indicates as much. In fiscal 2025, retailers, according to Crisil Ratings, took a 4 – 5 per cent hit to volume as gold prices soared around 25 per cent on-year amid geopolitical and economic concerns. As of mid-April 2025, gold prices are already nearly 20 per cent higher than the average price in fiscal 2025. 'The recent jump in prices came just before the start of the festive and marriage seasons in the first half of April 2025, limiting the impact on demand thus far. However, as ticket sizes for buyers are likely to remain constant, caratage and grammage may reduce, as seen in the last four fiscals, impacting volumes. The demand, though lower, remains supported by duty cuts on gold imports announced last year,' said Himank Sharma, director at Crisil Ratings.
