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Economic Times
09-07-2025
- Business
- Economic Times
Nifty headed to 28,000? Abhishek Banerjee on global risks, rupee, and sector bets
With easing geopolitical tensions and stable oil prices, Abhishek Banerjee of LotusDew Wealth believes India's macro outlook has strengthened, offering upside potential in equities. He sees selective opportunities across sectors and predicts Nifty 50 could touch 28,000 by year-end. Tired of too many ads? Remove Ads Q. Last month was marked by high volatility, from a full-blown Middle East crisis and the potential blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, which pushed oil prices higher, to more positive developments like trade deals with China, the passage of the US tax bill, and a ceasefire in the Middle East. Have global risks reduced meaningfully now? And what, in your view, are the key risks that markets still need to watch? Abhishek Banerjee: Tired of too many ads? Remove Ads Q. Given the current geopolitical backdrop, how is India's macro outlook shaping up? What's your view on the US dollar, gold, and bond yields? Abhishek Banerjee: Q. Is this a good time to invest in equities? What's your take on current market valuations? Abhishek Banerjee: Tired of too many ads? Remove Ads Q. Which sectors look most attractive to you right now, and how should investors position themselves? Abhishek Banerjee: Finished metals and building materials EPC and manufacturing Capital markets — as retail participation continues to rise Financials — especially banks and insurance, both private and public Q. Where do you see the Nifty 50 by the end of the year, and what will drive it? Abhishek Banerjee: ₹1 lakh crore in tax relief to support consumption Infrastructure borrowing norms relaxed, making infra lending easier A ₹2.5 lakh crore dividend pool and rising GST collections Stable rupee and low oil prices PSU turnaround stories with scope for improved efficiency With geopolitical tensions easing and oil prices stabilizing, is this the moment Indian equities have been waiting for? In this interview, Abhishek Banerjee, CEO & Founder of LotusDew Wealth, decodes the impact of global risks on India's macro fundamentals, sector-wise opportunities, and why he believes Nifty 50 could hit 28,000 by the past few months have been quite tumultuous, from the India–Pakistan tensions to the escalating Middle East conflict, including Iran's threat to block the Strait of Hormuz, which is critical for India as it sources 30–40% of its oil through that route. Fortunately, that particular threat has eased for attention has now shifted back to Ukraine, China, and Taiwan. A truce in Gaza or Ukraine could meaningfully reduce risks further. We're seeing signs, the US halting arms supplies to Ukraine, for example, suggests pressure toward said, new geopolitical fronts could emerge, such as U.S.-Canada trade tensions, Trump's unpredictable foreign policy signals, or China's stance on Taiwan. While visible risks can be priced in, markets are often blindsided by what they don't see the current environment reflects lower perceived risk. For instance, India's VIX is around 12 — which suggests a low-volatility environment. Below 10 usually indicates complacency. On balance, India is in a good spot — with strong macros, trade deal progress, and a sense of biggest risk remains oil prices. We're a major importer and a road-transport-heavy economy, so any oil spike directly impacts inflation. That's why the Strait of Hormuz threat was significant, now that it's eased, inflation is cooling, and the RBI has room to cut exports rising and the current account deficit narrowing, the Indian rupee, though currently at all-time lows, could strengthen from here. That's a double-edged sword: while it benefits macros, it's a headwind for exporters like IT and pharma. Rupee appreciation helps domestic-facing sectors, like EPC, manufacturing, financials, and small & micro caps — but puts pressure on sectors reliant on dollar yes, the rupee may strengthen, and that's good for the broader economy. But IT, pharma, and services exports could stay under pressure in the near often trades at a higher PE than other emerging markets like Brazil or South Korea. Historically, this was debated, but today, it's supported by structural companies have always been efficient. But PSUs, which were earlier underperformers, are now showing signs of earnings improvement. That has helped justify higher strong global macros, improving PSU efficiency, and a still-favorable domestic setup, even with IT and pharma under pressure, there's a lot of room for outperformance through the right stock and market cap yes, I see potential for significant upside, even from current levels. The risks have reduced prefer smallcaps over large caps — because smallcaps are more domestic and manufacturing-focused, whereas large caps have greater exposure to services and pharma, which may face headwinds due to the rupee's sectors, we like:These sectors benefit from strong global macros and are relatively insulated from geopolitical shocks.I wouldn't be surprised to see Nifty around 28,000 by year-end, that's a 15% upside from current drivers:All these factors combined make us bullish on Indian equities, with the right sectors significantly outperforming in this environment.
Time of India
09-07-2025
- Business
- Time of India
Nifty headed to 28,000? Abhishek Banerjee on global risks, rupee, and sector bets
With geopolitical tensions easing and oil prices stabilizing, is this the moment Indian equities have been waiting for? In this interview, Abhishek Banerjee, CEO & Founder of LotusDew Wealth, decodes the impact of global risks on India's macro fundamentals, sector-wise opportunities, and why he believes Nifty 50 could hit 28,000 by year-end. Excerpts: by Taboola by Taboola Sponsored Links Sponsored Links Promoted Links Promoted Links You May Like You might be interested in the content above Undo Q. Last month was marked by high volatility, from a full-blown Middle East crisis and the potential blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, which pushed oil prices higher, to more positive developments like trade deals with China, the passage of the US tax bill, and a ceasefire in the Middle East. Have global risks reduced meaningfully now? And what, in your view, are the key risks that markets still need to watch? Play Video Pause Skip Backward Skip Forward Unmute Current Time 0:00 / Duration 0:00 Loaded : 0% 0:00 Stream Type LIVE Seek to live, currently behind live LIVE Remaining Time - 0:00 1x Playback Rate Chapters Chapters Descriptions descriptions off , selected Captions captions settings , opens captions settings dialog captions off , selected Audio Track default , selected Picture-in-Picture Fullscreen This is a modal window. Beginning of dialog window. Escape will cancel and close the window. Text Color White Black Red Green Blue Yellow Magenta Cyan Opacity Opaque Semi-Transparent Text Background Color Black White Red Green Blue Yellow Magenta Cyan Opacity Opaque Semi-Transparent Transparent Caption Area Background Color Black White Red Green Blue Yellow Magenta Cyan Opacity Transparent Semi-Transparent Opaque Font Size 50% 75% 100% 125% 150% 175% 200% 300% 400% Text Edge Style None Raised Depressed Uniform Drop shadow Font Family Proportional Sans-Serif Monospace Sans-Serif Proportional Serif Monospace Serif Casual Script Small Caps Reset restore all settings to the default values Done Close Modal Dialog End of dialog window. Abhishek Banerjee: Yes, the past few months have been quite tumultuous, from the India–Pakistan tensions to the escalating Middle East conflict, including Iran's threat to block the Strait of Hormuz, which is critical for India as it sources 30–40% of its oil through that route. Fortunately, that particular threat has eased for now. However, attention has now shifted back to Ukraine, China, and Taiwan. A truce in Gaza or Ukraine could meaningfully reduce risks further. We're seeing signs, the US halting arms supplies to Ukraine, for example, suggests pressure toward compromise. That said, new geopolitical fronts could emerge, such as U.S.-Canada trade tensions, Trump's unpredictable foreign policy signals, or China's stance on Taiwan. While visible risks can be priced in, markets are often blindsided by what they don't see coming. Live Events Still, the current environment reflects lower perceived risk. For instance, India's VIX is around 12 — which suggests a low-volatility environment. Below 10 usually indicates complacency. On balance, India is in a good spot — with strong macros, trade deal progress, and a sense of stability. Q. Given the current geopolitical backdrop, how is India's macro outlook shaping up? What's your view on the US dollar, gold, and bond yields? Abhishek Banerjee: India's biggest risk remains oil prices. We're a major importer and a road-transport-heavy economy, so any oil spike directly impacts inflation. That's why the Strait of Hormuz threat was significant, now that it's eased, inflation is cooling, and the RBI has room to cut rates. With exports rising and the current account deficit narrowing, the Indian rupee, though currently at all-time lows, could strengthen from here. That's a double-edged sword: while it benefits macros, it's a headwind for exporters like IT and pharma. Rupee appreciation helps domestic-facing sectors, like EPC, manufacturing, financials, and small & micro caps — but puts pressure on sectors reliant on dollar revenues. So yes, the rupee may strengthen, and that's good for the broader economy. But IT, pharma, and services exports could stay under pressure in the near term. Q. Is this a good time to invest in equities? What's your take on current market valuations? Abhishek Banerjee: India often trades at a higher PE than other emerging markets like Brazil or South Korea. Historically, this was debated, but today, it's supported by structural improvements. Private companies have always been efficient. But PSUs, which were earlier underperformers, are now showing signs of earnings improvement. That has helped justify higher valuations. Given strong global macros, improving PSU efficiency, and a still-favorable domestic setup, even with IT and pharma under pressure, there's a lot of room for outperformance through the right stock and market cap selection. So yes, I see potential for significant upside, even from current levels. The risks have reduced meaningfully. Q. Which sectors look most attractive to you right now, and how should investors position themselves? Abhishek Banerjee: We prefer smallcaps over large caps — because smallcaps are more domestic and manufacturing-focused, whereas large caps have greater exposure to services and pharma, which may face headwinds due to the rupee's trajectory. Within sectors, we like: Finished metals and building materials EPC and manufacturing Capital markets — as retail participation continues to rise Financials — especially banks and insurance, both private and public These sectors benefit from strong global macros and are relatively insulated from geopolitical shocks. Q. Where do you see the Nifty 50 by the end of the year, and what will drive it? Abhishek Banerjee: I wouldn't be surprised to see Nifty around 28,000 by year-end, that's a 15% upside from current levels. Key drivers: ₹1 lakh crore in tax relief to support consumption Infrastructure borrowing norms relaxed, making infra lending easier A ₹2.5 lakh crore dividend pool and rising GST collections Stable rupee and low oil prices PSU turnaround stories with scope for improved efficiency All these factors combined make us bullish on Indian equities, with the right sectors significantly outperforming in this environment.
Time of India
11-06-2025
- Business
- Time of India
$1 Trillion GDP Boost in Sight: Abhishek Banerjee on promising sectors, gold and market sentiment
As global macroeconomic cues continue to shape market sentiment, ET Markets' Neha Vashishth Mahajan sat down with Abhishek Banerjee, CEO & Founder of LotusDew Wealth, to decode key global trends like interest rates, inflation, China's disinflation, and Donald Trump's tariff bombshell. Banerjee also shared his outlook on Indian equity markets, sectoral opportunities, and why microcaps remain a compelling space despite volatility. EXCERPTS Q. Interest rates are coming down globally. What impact do you see on Indian stocks, and how do global developments factor in? Abhishek Banerjee: Interest rates reflect both economic activity and global trade dynamics. Right now, trade is facing uncertainty due to tariffs and supply chain disruptions. Companies are unsure whether to delay procurement or over-order in anticipation of rising costs. This creates volatility, slowing trade, reducing the velocity of money, and putting mixed pressures on inflation. Some firms are pre-ordering large shipments, such as Apple, to hedge against future tariffs. But overall, we're seeing a slowdown in global demand and production. This gives central banks more room to cut interest rates. Today, most central banks are turning dovish, inclined to cut rates rather than raise them. The European Central Bank announced a cut, RBI too cut the repo rates. For equities, lower interest rates are positive. They reduce the discount rate used in stock valuations, which boosts prices, especially for high P/E, growth-oriented stocks. India, being a growth market, is likely to benefit more from this trend. Smaller and high-growth companies could outperform in a falling interest rate environment. Q. Gold prices have surged recently. Traditionally, gold rises when equities fall—but lately, both have been moving up together. Why is this happening, and what's your outlook? Abhishek Banerjee: Earlier, gold and equities were uncorrelated. Now, they're moving in tandem largely because central banks are buying gold as a reserve instead of US dollars. That's putting upward pressure on bullion. Some experts, including prominent investors and even Goldman Sachs, predict gold could touch $4,000–$5,000. I don't share that view. I believe gold has already peaked. Instead, I'm more bullish on silver, which has industrial uses—especially in EVs and electronics. Gold is more of a store of value and is driven by sentiment, while silver is increasingly relevant for future-facing industries. If you're looking at precious metals, silver and other rare earths have more upside potential, though access to some of these materials is still limited in public markets. Q. Donald Trump's repeated tariff announcements are shaking markets. Goldman Sachs estimates US inflation could hit 4% this year, with tariffs contributing significantly. The Fed has paused rate cuts, and US yields are already higher than most G10 nations. What's your take? Abhishek Banerjee: What's changed is perception. Earlier, Trump's tariff moves seemed calculated, even strategic—some thought Elon Musk might be influencing them. But with their differences now out in the open, that perception has shifted. People are beginning to question whether these are smart moves or simply political posturing. Importantly, the market still treats tariffs as temporary negotiating tools. But I believe they're becoming permanent. That means higher baseline prices and stickier inflation. While central banks may cut rates in the near term, we could see reversals if inflation doesn't ease. For India, though, this uncertainty presents an opportunity. We're benefitting from lower oil prices, growing exports—especially in defence and electronics—and higher tax collections. The government has offered relief to middle-income earners, and corporate balance sheets are flush with cash. India has around ₹10 lakh crore in corporate reserves, and we're beginning to see that being deployed in capex. Over the next 4–6 quarters, as that money is converted into productive assets, India could add $1 trillion to the economy—moving from a $4 trillion to a $5 trillion economy faster than expected. China's inflation has remained below 1% for over two years, despite fiscal and monetary stimulus. What's going on? Abhishek Banerjee: China's biggest growth engine—real estate—is struggling. With population growth slowing and urbanization largely complete, marginal demand is hard to stimulate. Meanwhile, China has overcapacity in manufacturing—they're extremely efficient, and there's little room left to extract more gains. While valuations looked attractive recently, it's risky—like catching a falling knife. China has fiscal and FX space to act, but they're also distracted by geopolitical tensions, trade wars, and a focus on military engagement. Amid all this, India has a relative advantage and looks far more promising for investors in the near term. Which sectors are likely to benefit in the near term? Abhishek Banerjee: Auto and consumer sectors are immediate beneficiaries. With April salary hikes and tax relief, consumers have more disposable income. That translates into car purchases, home upgrades, and premium consumption—travel, electronics, etc. Real estate could also benefit. On the flip side, pharma and IT services face headwinds. IT services in particular are under structural pressure despite some FX-driven margin improvements. Q. What's your take on microcaps? Brokerages seem bullish. Abhishek Banerjee: We've always been bullish on microcaps—they're our specialty. The SME segment alone has given 65% CAGR returns, though it's a high-risk space with some stocks losing 98% of their value while others gain 35x. It's a stock picker's market. Many smaller companies are undervalued simply because they've lacked investor attention. Now, with stretched valuations in large and midcaps, money is trickling down into these overlooked gems.
Economic Times
11-06-2025
- Business
- Economic Times
$1 Trillion GDP Boost in Sight: Abhishek Banerjee on promising sectors, gold and market sentiment
Agencies It's a stock picker's market. Many smaller companies are undervalued simply because they've lacked investor attention. Now, with stretched valuations in large and midcaps, money is trickling down into these overlooked gems. As global macroeconomic cues continue to shape market sentiment, ET Markets' Neha Vashishth Mahajan sat down with Abhishek Banerjee, CEO & Founder of LotusDew Wealth, to decode key global trends like interest rates, inflation, China's disinflation, and Donald Trump's tariff bombshell. Banerjee also shared his outlook on Indian equity markets, sectoral opportunities, and why microcaps remain a compelling space despite volatility. EXCERPTS Q. Interest rates are coming down globally. What impact do you see on Indian stocks, and how do global developments factor in? Abhishek Banerjee: Interest rates reflect both economic activity and global trade dynamics. Right now, trade is facing uncertainty due to tariffs and supply chain disruptions. Companies are unsure whether to delay procurement or over-order in anticipation of rising costs. This creates volatility, slowing trade, reducing the velocity of money, and putting mixed pressures on firms are pre-ordering large shipments, such as Apple, to hedge against future tariffs. But overall, we're seeing a slowdown in global demand and production. This gives central banks more room to cut interest most central banks are turning dovish, inclined to cut rates rather than raise them. The European Central Bank announced a cut, RBI too cut the repo rates. For equities, lower interest rates are positive. They reduce the discount rate used in stock valuations, which boosts prices, especially for high P/E, growth-oriented stocks. India, being a growth market, is likely to benefit more from this trend. Smaller and high-growth companies could outperform in a falling interest rate environment.Q. Gold prices have surged recently. Traditionally, gold rises when equities fall—but lately, both have been moving up together. Why is this happening, and what's your outlook? Abhishek Banerjee: Earlier, gold and equities were uncorrelated. Now, they're moving in tandem largely because central banks are buying gold as a reserve instead of US dollars. That's putting upward pressure on experts, including prominent investors and even Goldman Sachs, predict gold could touch $4,000–$5,000. I don't share that view. I believe gold has already peaked. Instead, I'm more bullish on silver, which has industrial uses—especially in EVs and electronics. Gold is more of a store of value and is driven by sentiment, while silver is increasingly relevant for future-facing you're looking at precious metals, silver and other rare earths have more upside potential, though access to some of these materials is still limited in public markets. Q. Donald Trump's repeated tariff announcements are shaking markets. Goldman Sachs estimates US inflation could hit 4% this year, with tariffs contributing significantly. The Fed has paused rate cuts, and US yields are already higher than most G10 nations. What's your take? Abhishek Banerjee: What's changed is perception. Earlier, Trump's tariff moves seemed calculated, even strategic—some thought Elon Musk might be influencing them. But with their differences now out in the open, that perception has shifted. People are beginning to question whether these are smart moves or simply political posturing. Importantly, the market still treats tariffs as temporary negotiating tools. But I believe they're becoming permanent. That means higher baseline prices and stickier inflation. While central banks may cut rates in the near term, we could see reversals if inflation doesn't India, though, this uncertainty presents an opportunity. We're benefitting from lower oil prices, growing exports—especially in defence and electronics—and higher tax collections. The government has offered relief to middle-income earners, and corporate balance sheets are flush with has around ₹10 lakh crore in corporate reserves, and we're beginning to see that being deployed in capex. Over the next 4–6 quarters, as that money is converted into productive assets, India could add $1 trillion to the economy—moving from a $4 trillion to a $5 trillion economy faster than expected. China's inflation has remained below 1% for over two years, despite fiscal and monetary stimulus. What's going on? Abhishek Banerjee: China's biggest growth engine—real estate—is struggling. With population growth slowing and urbanization largely complete, marginal demand is hard to stimulate. Meanwhile, China has overcapacity in manufacturing—they're extremely efficient, and there's little room left to extract more gains. While valuations looked attractive recently, it's risky—like catching a falling knife. China has fiscal and FX space to act, but they're also distracted by geopolitical tensions, trade wars, and a focus on military engagement. Amid all this, India has a relative advantage and looks far more promising for investors in the near term. Which sectors are likely to benefit in the near term? Abhishek Banerjee: Auto and consumer sectors are immediate beneficiaries. With April salary hikes and tax relief, consumers have more disposable income. That translates into car purchases, home upgrades, and premium consumption—travel, electronics, etc. Real estate could also benefit. On the flip side, pharma and IT services face headwinds. IT services in particular are under structural pressure despite some FX-driven margin improvements. Q. What's your take on microcaps? Brokerages seem bullish. Abhishek Banerjee: We've always been bullish on microcaps—they're our specialty. The SME segment alone has given 65% CAGR returns, though it's a high-risk space with some stocks losing 98% of their value while others gain 35x. It's a stock picker's market. Many smaller companies are undervalued simply because they've lacked investor attention. Now, with stretched valuations in large and midcaps, money is trickling down into these overlooked gems. Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts/brokerages do not represent the views of Economic Times.
