Latest news with #Lukashenko
The Hill
2 days ago
- Politics
- The Hill
Belarus courts the west as its opposition keeps fighting
On June 21, Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, an authoritarian who has ruled the nation since 1994, freed 14 political prisoners, including the husband of exiled opposition leader Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya. This happened hours after Lukashenko received U.S. envoy Keith Kellogg in the capital of Minsk. The release of Siarhei Tsikhanouski — known as ' Minsk's number one political prisoner,' who had received the regime's harshest verdict of 18 years — underscores the high-profile nature of the gesture. Kellogg's visit was not his first. On Feb. 12, soon after his initial trip to Belarus, the authorities pardoned three political prisoners, including an American citizen. The June amnesty therefore builds on a pattern linking each wave of releases to Kellogg-brokered diplomacy. The end of the isolation of the Lukashenko regime, however, does not necessarily mean abandonment of Belarusian opposition. Every year since she emerged in 2020, Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya has used major international platforms — from long-form journalism and television interviews to speeches at parliaments, security conferences and her own social channels — to repeat the same demand: freedom for all Belarusian political prisoners. The consistency of that message underlines that freeing everyone, not a token few, is non-negotiable for the democratic movement she leads. Posting on social media, Tsikhanouskaya thanked President Trump, Kellogg and other partners for securing her husband's freedom. She added, 'We're not done,' and urged that the remaining 1,186 political prisoners be released as well, a demonstration that the fight against the regime will persist. With so many political prisoners still behind bars, Lukashenko's selective pardons fall far short of systemic change. Yet they signal a calculated bid to shed pariah status and rebalance Belarus's dependence on Russia and Vladimir Putin. Belarus is the world's third-largest producer of potash, a key component of fertilizer, but sanctions and Lithuania's 2022 ban on its using the port of Klaipeda have cut it off from Western buyers. Almost all Belarusian potash now travels by rail through Russia to China and other Asian customers. Because Russia controls this sole export route and competes with Belarus in the same fertilizer market, it can charge premium transit fees, squeezing Belarusian profits and deepening Lukashenko's dependence on the Kremlin. Putin's leverage helps explain why Lukashenko trades high-profile prisoner releases for talks on easing sanctions and restoring cheaper sea access. Sending Kellogg to Minsk lets Trump advertise an early foreign-policy win: a humanitarian deal, plus a possible opening for Ukraine peace talks. To pull Belarus even slightly out of Putin's orbit strengthens Trump's argument that his personal diplomacy can keep Russia in check. Over 90 percent of the potash used in the U.S. is imported. Top countries for potash exports include Canada, Belarus, China and Russia, with the last three accounting for more than 40 percent of global supply. Belarus has turned eastward since Western sanctions cut off its traditional routes: China's share of Belarus's potash sales surged from 17 percent in 2021 to more than 70 percent in 2023. President Xi Jinping hailed Lukashenko as a 'true friend' during the Beijing summit on June 4. For Trump, who has pursued a consistently hardline stance toward Beijing, the June deal that freed Tsikhanouski also serves as proof that his direct, transactional diplomacy can peel partners away from Beijing while advancing U.S. security aims — whether that is diversifying fertilizer supply chains or kick-starting Ukraine peace talks. While economic and political calculations may shape how the Trump administration engages with Lukashenko, they do not equate to an end of international criticism of the Lukashenko regime or support for the Belarusian opposition. On March 27, the EU added 25 more officials and seven entities to its Belarus list of 310 individuals and 46 entities under asset freezes and travel bans, keeping Belarus under the same scrutiny as before the prisoner-release diplomacy began. High-level political platforms remain open to Tsikhanouskaya and her allies, and foreign legislatures and multilateral bodies still push accountability. This international pressure helps to keep the opposition's cause alive and ensures that the struggle for democracy in Belarus still has external backing. Tatsiana Kulakevich is an associate professor of instruction in research methods and quantitative analysis at the University of South Florida.
Yahoo
5 days ago
- Politics
- Yahoo
Trump Got Her Husband Out of Prison in Belarus. Here's What She Wants Him to Know.
Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, an opposition leader in Belarus, hadn't heard from her husband Siarhei in more than two years. Not since Belarusian authorities placed him in 'incommunicado' detention, in full isolation. And then he called her. 'My dear wife,' he said. 'I'm free.' He had been released from prison after negotiations between authoritarian leader Alexander Lukashenko and Trump administration officials, and was at the border between Belarus and Lithuania. He and 13 other political prisoners were heading to the American embassy in Vilnius. Tsikhanouskaya and Siarhei have since reintroduced him to their children, traveled to a solidarity rally in Poland and done interviews with major news outlets. But both Tsikhanouskaya and her husband, a blogger and political activist who was preparing to challenge Lukashenko in Belarus' 2020 election when he was imprisoned, are grappling with the opposition's role in what comes next. In an interview with POLITICO Magazine, Tsikhanouskaya described the joy of finally reuniting her family even as she said there was far more work to be done. She also made clear that a certain peace-seeking president could help her cause. 'We ask President Trump, go further, free them all,' she said. 'Use your influence again. We believe that you can do this, and Belarusians will never forget it.' The administration's efforts in Belarus come as Trump continues to search for an end to Russia's war on Ukraine, and as Lukashenko looks for a means to end the political isolation his relationship with Vladimir Putin has wrought. Along with freeing more political prisoners, Tsikhanouskaya is desperate to make sure Belarus isn't pulled further into Russia's orbit as part of negotiations to end Putin's war. This conversation has been edited for length and clarity. When did you know that your husband Siarhei would be freed? The moment when I understood that he was free was when he called me from the border, just a direct call, and I heard his voice, and he told me, 'My dear wife, I'm free.' I could hardly believe this, because I was sure that he would be one of the last who would be released from prison, but who understands the logic of this regime? We had several lists of people to be released, humanitarian lists where people who were about to die were there and people who were incommunicado, some others. They chose Siarhei, I don't know why. A lot has been made of the term 'incommunicado.' What exactly does that mean in the context of Belarus? Incommunicado means that a person is kept in full isolation. Since March 2023, more than two years, we lost full connection with Siarhei. A lawyer wasn't able to attend to him. Letters were not received from my husband. Nothing. Just forced disappearance. And we have eight people at the moment on this list, and I wasn't sure if he was alive, what prison he's kept in, what state he's in. The regime is doing this to blackmail relatives, put a burden on the shoulders of their relatives. This knowing nothing about people is, of course, very, very painful. Can you speak to what it was like to see Siarhei for the first time post-prison sentence? It was, it is now, shocking to see him in such a state. He lost half of his weight. He says that for the last couple of months, they even gave him additional portions of butter, cottage cheese. When he got out of the minivan, I knew that he would be there, but if I had seen him somewhere else, I wouldn't have recognized him. And when he returned home, our young daughter didn't recognize him at all. I said, 'Dear, look who came?' And she just said, 'Hello, who are you?' And when he started talking, she just recognized his voice. Of course, there were oceans of tears, hugs, but prison changes people a lot. It's like gray face, like very skinny people. It's difficult to see, but the physical state, maybe it's possible to improve somehow. But all those memories from prison, the emotional trauma, psychological trauma, it will not be able to be softened. Has it set in that he's back? How has it been to have him back in the movement? The release of Siarhei, it's brought a boost of energy to the Belarusian people, first of all. It was such news for people. And he's full of energy. For five years, he was thinking about new ideas, new projects, how to change the situation in Belarus. And now we have to use this momentum to direct more attention to the topic of Belarus, to the topic of political prisoners and the country's political disaster. So, on the one hand, as a wife, I want to take care of him, I want him to relax a little bit. But on the other hand, I understand that he has to jump into the agenda. He's given so many interviews now, so many people want to meet him, to see him, and we have to use that momentum. And he's still realizing what has happened in the democratic movement. But, for sure he will join this movement as a strong speaker, as a leader, just to try to mobilize the energy of Belarusians. Five years [since an anti-Lukashenko protest movement was violently quashed and Siarhei was first jailed], and people are exhausted. You know, people continue to fight. We are working on different projects in coordination with the people on the ground, but somehow people are losing, step by step, the energy. And he's a driver who can really, really attract attention. So Siarhei will focus on building new channels of communication with the workers, rural communities, entrepreneurs, officials. His voice is powerful and he speaks the language of people. Many Belarusians watched his first press conference, it gave maybe people inside the country new hope. Many people who believed in 2020, and were silent for five years, are active again. Switching gears to politics — are you worried at all that the Trump White House might be legitimizing Lukashenko by negotiating with him on the release of political prisoners? So first of all, President Trump really made a difference. His team — Gen. Keith Kellogg, John Cole, Chris Smith — took real action and it worked. Trump has shown that diplomacy and pressure can bring results. He has leverage in the situation of Belarus and he used it. Now, we must maintain pressure on the regime. We have seen that the pressure works, and it is the most effective tool. I think that actually Belarus can be President Trump's foreign policy success story — a place where American leadership ends a crisis without war. It can be a victory that the world will notice. And we ask President Trump, go further, free them all. Use your influence again. We believe that you can do this, and Belarusians will never forget it. It was American diplomacy and mission that rescued this group of people. But for sure, without the strong and principled and firm position of the European Union as well, it wouldn't have brought this result. So again, President Trump can solve the crisis in Belarus, which lasts 30 years already, and it must be easier to bring changes to Belarus than to Russia. Of course, there is gossip that this visit of Gen. Kellogg might look like legitimization of the regime, but I trust that our American partners know who they're dealing with. And it was President Trump, actually in 2020, who didn't recognize the legitimacy of Lukashenko. They understand that Lukashenko is a criminal, he committed crimes against Belarusians, he is a war criminal. And he has to be brought to accountability for all the crimes. But nevertheless, for Lukashenko this meeting is more important than it is for the Americans, because he's seeking legitimacy. He's seeking to show the world that 'Look Americans themselves listen to me, I'm important.' But Americans understand that he's playing on the side of Putin in this game, that he is not an independent player. What would you like to see President Trump do in Belarus? We understand that President Trump wants to end the war in Ukraine and this is why Belarus might be a topic for negotiation as well. For us, it's very important that the peace in Ukraine that President Trump wants to achieve must be lasting and just. It must be on the conditions of Ukraine. We can't reward the aggressor. There cannot be peace without justice, and the Belarusian topic is existential here because if Lukashenko stays in power in Belarus, there will no longer be a possibility to secure peace in the whole region. So we want President Trump to continue first of all releases, but also continue this communication through the State Department with the Belarusian Democratic Forces, and bring changes in Belarus that will actually change the security architecture of the whole region. So, continue this humanitarian track and also push Lukashenko and his regime on their path of national dialogue with Belarusians. America can play this very strong mediation role between the Belarusians and the regime. Because again, I want to underline that Lukashenko wants negotiations with the USA or with the West, possibly with the European Union, but we need systematic changes. We want Belarusian people to return to Belarus, where they will not be prosecuted. We want to write our constitution so that it works for Belarusian people. The aim is much broader than the release of political prisoners, though that is our priority. Are you worried that the Trump administration may be giving Putin and Lukashenko too much credit in its bid to end the war? Is it too transactional? Of course, you know President Trump's politics, we see it is rather transactional. But maybe it's not about credit, it's about giving a chance to Putin, maybe to Lukashenko, to change the situation that will meet the demands of Ukrainians and Belarusians. We already saw that President Trump met President Zelenskyy during the NATO Summit and it was a very pleasant conversation. And I think that there was disappointment in Trump's administration that Putin doesn't want to make any concessions. What advice do you have for the Trump administration as it embarks on negotiations and attempts to improve relationships with Minsk? We must not normalize the trafficking of political prisoners, when people are released for some concessions from your side, softening of sanctions or publicity. And then new political prisoners are taken. Lukashenko has to be punished, not rewarded. What is a realistic path forward for getting Belarus' political prisoners freed with American coordination? There's a big chance to release all people from prison. But the issue is what the regime wants in return for this. We always say that sanctions are the leverage to release people, but we have to use this leverage smartly. If we don't see any signs that repressions are stopped, this instrument cannot be used. Because 14 people have been released but [in June], 28 were detained. When we see a change of policy by Lukashenko, that he's ready to stop these repressions and make steps forward toward the Belarusian people, it might be a signal that you can talk about lifting of sanctions. But again, don't, forget that we have more leverage with European sanctions. Of course, the actions have to be coordinated. And there should be no pressure, for example, from the American side to the European side. The main message is that sanctions as instruments have to be used smartly. We can't even speak about softening sanctions now, while repressions continue and with more than 1,000 behind bars. The first condition — ending repression — must be met. And I am sure President Trump, with all his power, can achieve it. Like the release of my husband — it happened without lifting any sanctions.
The Hill
09-07-2025
- Politics
- The Hill
After US strikes, Iran is seeking closer ties to Europe's pariah states
In the wake of U.S. strikes on its nuclear sites, Iran has used the uneasy ceasefire with Israel as a strategic pause, as the regime seeks to re-arm, re-organize and crack down on dissent. As has been noted, Tehran is also working to enhance its diplomatic position, by attempting to exploit disunity among Western policymakers, court Chinese support and undermine the International Atomic Energy Agency. One element of this post-war strategy that has received less attention is Iran's push to strengthen ties and seek stronger commitments from Belarus and Serbia, its key European allies. Since the full scale invasion of Ukraine began in 2022, Iran has increasingly sought to integrate into the Russia-led multi-pariah order, viewing relationships with similarly isolated regimes as a means of relieving diplomatic and economic pressures. However, Russia's lack of overt support for Iran in its conflict with Israel has led some to speculate that the two regimes may be having a falling-out. This apparent rift offers the likely motivation behind Iran's recent effort to shore up relations with other pariah regimes, both to ensure that this pattern does not repeat and to compensate for shortcomings in its partnership with Russia. Such actions are necessary for the Islamic Republic, should the regime seek to resume direct hostilities with the U.S. and Israel as part of a more protracted war. Belarus has long sought closer ties with Iran, but these efforts largely stalled until shared support for Russia's war in Ukraine provided a vehicle for strategic alignment. When Israel and Iran began exchanging strikes, Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko's regime largely parroted Moscow's ambiguous response. However, in the wake of the ceasefire, Tehran leaned on Minsk to take a stronger stance. That same week, the regimes' defense ministries held high-level talks in China on the sidelines of a Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit, which led Belarus to confirm its desire for enhanced diplomatic and military cooperation. To facilitate this process, Iran opened a permanent military attaché office within its Minsk embassy complex. Having previously offered arms and nuclear expertise to Iran, Belarus could be in a position to help the Islamic Republic regain its footing ahead of resumed conflict. Lukashenko has also since moved to clarify his regime's position, by decrying Israeli and U.S. actions and lauding 'Iranian resistance.' This offers much-needed explicit European support for the Islamic Republic, which has seen its network of regional proxies and allies crumble in recent months. Moreover, Belarus has begun lobbying for closer integration between Iran and the Eurasian Economic Union, which could offer a critical lifeline for the regime's flagging economy. Meanwhile, Iran has turned to Serbia as another economic gateway, exploiting the Balkan state's strained ties with the European Union and its perceived drift into Russia's orbit. In the last several months, Tehran has secured a set of bilateral commercial agreements with Belgrade. As Serbia resists aligning with EU sanctions policies, Tehran may also use these agreements as a circumvention tool, funneling sanctioned goods and funds through Balkan networks. Nevertheless, Aleksandar Vucic's government historically resisted Tehran's requests for closer security ties, based largely on Serbia's role as a major arms supplier to Israel. This dynamic has started to shift following U.S. strikes, however. Islamic Republic-aligned media amplified supposed solidarity among Serbian activists and nationalist politicians for Iran, and published warnings from the regime that Israel's suppliers would be treated as adversaries. Vucic has responded to Iranian pressure by condemning U.S. strikes and suspending arms sales to Israel. This potential pivot could open the door to closer diplomatic, commercial and military relations with Iran. Given Serbia's continued aim to expand its arms exports, the Islamic Republic could eventually offer an appealing market, especially if Vucic drifts further from the European Union. Serbian arms dealers could use black market transactions to facilitate this process, as has occurred historically. It remains to be seen whether the Islamic Republic will secure further tangible concessions from Serbia and Belarus. These partnerships have clear logistical and strategic limitations, much like Tehran's relationship with Moscow. Nevertheless, Iran's growing ties with Europe's pariah states pose a challenge to U.S. and European interests. For Washington, these overtures threaten to erode the efficacy of sanctions enforcement, particularly if Iran succeeds in establishing new financial pathways through Serbia or deepens integration with the Eurasian Economic Union with support from Belarus. As the Trump administration resumes talks with Iran, such moves could reduce the economic pressure underpinning efforts to constrain the regime's nuclear ambitions. Ultimately, this may prompt Washington to seek additional leverage — namely by urging Brussels to adopt a tougher line on Serbia and Belarus, or threatening to scrap the Serbian government's sanctions waivers. For Europe, the challenge is no less acute. Serbia's relationship remains frustrated with Brussels, a closer relationship with Tehran could heighten security risks in the Balkans, where unresolved political tensions, Russian influence and porous borders already pose issues for the European Union. Iran's presence in this environment could offer illicit access to European markets, technologies and financial systems, while potentially facilitating terror-crime links. The Islamic Republic and its proxies have already exploited such factors to commit acts of terror in Southeastern Europe, including a deadly 2012 bombing in Bulgaria. Furthermore, deepening military ties between Belarus and Iran would intensify existing concerns for European security, particularly regarding the war in Ukraine. Taken together, Iran's coordinated outreach to these regimes reflects a deliberate effort in the post-war environment to secure commitments from its partners for diplomatic, economic and security assistance, without relying upon Russia as a mediator. As Iran adapts to a new phase of confrontation with the West, its relationship with Europe's pariahs could become a more durable feature of the regime's strategic posture. This could complicate efforts to establish deterrence, pose a security threat and bolster the Islamic Republic's resilience amid sustained isolation. Jack Roush is a Ph.D. candidate affiliated with the London School of Economics Iranian History Initiative.
France 24
09-07-2025
- Politics
- France 24
Freeing the rest of us could be Trump's 'great victory', Belarusian dissident Tikhanovsky says
Europe 11:43 Issued on: From the show Exiled Belarusian opposition leaders Sergey Tikhanovsky and Svetlana Tikhanovskaya granted a joint interview to FRANCE 24 from Vilnius. Tikhanovsky, who was recently released after more than five years in prison, called on US President Donald Trump to "go further" and free the remaining Belarusian political prisoners. "Belarus can be a success story for all of us," he said, describing his release as the result of a "joint international effort" including Trump's team and European leaders. Reunited with his wife and fellow Belarusian opposition leader Tikhanovskaya in Vilnius, Tikhanovsky explained that his daughter "didn't recognise" him when he returned home. "That broke my heart," he said. "She spent most of her life without me. But now I will be there for her." He also insisted he "did not sign anything" to abandon politics in return for his freedom. Tikhanovskaya warned that Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko remains "very vulnerable" as "most Belarusians hate him", adding "we all understand that Lukashenko is [a] puppet of [Russian President Vladimir] Putin".
The Star
03-07-2025
- Politics
- The Star
Belarus celebrates Independence Day
MINSK, July 3 (Xinhua) -- Belarus celebrated its most important national holiday on Thursday, commemorating a significant historical moment of liberation during World War II. The Day of Independence of Belarus is the most important state holiday, Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko said Thursday during a wreath and flower laying ceremony at the Mound of Glory memorial complex. Independence Day is a symbol of freedom and independence, and it embodies the memory of the heroic deed of the victorious people and the eternal gratitude of their descendants, Lukashenko said. Belarus remains a peaceful country, but it should get ready for any development of events, the Belarusian leader said. For many Belarusians, Independence Day is both a celebration of national pride and a solemn remembrance of the immense human cost of the war. The current Independence Day on July 3 is tied to the liberation of Minsk, the national capital, from Nazi occupation.
