Latest news with #MBSBResearch
Barnama
a day ago
- Business
- Barnama
MBSB Research Projects 4.0 - 5.0 Pct Annual GDP Growth Under 13MP
BUSINESS KUALA LUMPUR, July 31 (Bernama) -- The 13th Malaysia Plan (13MP) will likely target sustainable gross domestic product (GDP) growth of 4.0-5.0 per cent annually from 2026 to 2030, driven by infrastructure development, domestic consumption and strategic initiatives like the Johor-Singapore Special Economic Zone, according to MBSB Investment Bank (MBSB Research). Prime Minister Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim will be tabling the 13MP this afternoon. MBSM Research said private consumption, which accounts for more than 60 per cent of GDP, is expected to remain a key growth engine, supported by rising employment and income levels. The investment bank has anticipated that development expenditure will be maintained at around RM80 billion annually, contributing approximately 3.3 per cent of GDP, to ensure strong project flow and earnings visibility for construction players. "We opine that this level of spending is crucial to support multi-year infrastructure projects and public services, while avoiding excessive fiscal tightening that could hinder broader economic growth. "The government aims to reduce the fiscal deficit to 3.0 per cent of GDP by 2030, balancing investment needs with responsible fiscal management," it said in a note today. The investment bank opined that the key infrastructure projects set to anchor sector growth potentially include the mass rapid transit 3, Penang light rail transit, the East Coast Rail Link, Pan Borneo Highway, expansions at airports such as Penang and Miri, and various critical road projects nationwide. MBSB Research expects Sabah and Sarawak to receive substantial infrastructure funding to improve road networks, energy transition and logistics infrastructure. "Sarawak alone has proposed RM38.4 billion in allocations for new road construction and upgrades to existing roads, RM20.0 billion to ensure a clean water supply and RM7.90 billion for new health facilities.
The Sun
a day ago
- Business
- The Sun
Malaysia targets 4-5% GDP growth under 13MP, says MBSB Research
KUALA LUMPUR: The 13th Malaysia Plan (13MP) is expected to target sustainable annual GDP growth of 4.0 to 5.0 per cent from 2026 to 2030, according to MBSB Investment Bank (MBSB Research). Key drivers include infrastructure development, domestic consumption, and strategic initiatives like the Johor-Singapore Special Economic Zone. Prime Minister Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim will table the 13MP later today. MBSB Research highlighted private consumption, which contributes over 60 per cent of GDP, as a major growth engine, supported by rising employment and incomes. Development expenditure is projected at RM80 billion annually, accounting for 3.3 per cent of GDP, ensuring steady project flow for construction firms. 'This spending level is crucial to sustain infrastructure projects without excessive fiscal tightening,' the bank noted. Key infrastructure projects under the 13MP include MRT3, Penang LRT, East Coast Rail Link, Pan Borneo Highway, and airport expansions. Sabah and Sarawak are set to receive significant funding for roads, water supply, and health facilities. Public-private partnerships (PPPs) will play a vital role, with projects like the West Ipoh Span Expressway and Putrajaya-Bangi Expressway boosting private sector involvement. The 13MP also addresses structural reforms in public services, education, and labour markets, aiming for 35 per cent skilled employment by 2030. MBSB Research forecasts corporate earnings to grow at 5.0 per cent annually, potentially lifting the FBM KLCI to between 1,810 and 2,510 points by 2030. - Bernama
The Star
2 days ago
- Business
- The Star
13MP likely to prioritise development expenditure
PETALING JAYA: Development expenditure is expected to remain a key pillar of the government's strategy in the 13th Malaysia Plan (13MP), with allocations projected to hover around RM80bil annually over the next five years as Malaysia prioritises infrastructure, socio-economic development and domestic growth. MBSB Research said the projected allocation would maintain the government's contribution in supporting investment and business activities. 'We expect development may be maintained around RM80bil a year, maintaining the government's contribution in supporting investment and business activities,' the brokerage noted. Based on the Fiscal Responsibility Act (FRA) provision for a minimum of 3% of gross domestic product (GDP) for development expenditure, MBSB Research estimated the government would at least provide around RM73bil annually. 'This can be utilised to support multi-year infrastructure projects such as, among others, the mass rapid transit three and other railway projects (such as the East Coast Rail Link and Penang light rail transit), highway constructions and expansions (such as in Johor, Penang, Sabah and Sarawak), and airport expansions (such as in Miri),' it said. The brokerage said the development expenditure allocations of RM80bil per year is estimated to contribute around 3.3% of GDP in the next five years. 'We argue against a strict tightening in government spending, while it is positive in improving the fiscal position, which would constrain the broader economic growth,' it said. To balance fiscal discipline with growth objectives, MBSB Research expects greater participation from the private sector. 'We expect there will be continued adoption of public-private partnership (PPP) which can help to reduce the fiscal burden in driving domestic investment. In addition, national investment can be supported by greater investments by the private sector, be it from domestic and foreign companies,' it said, adding that attracting foreign direct investment remains crucial to securing Malaysia's role in the global supply chain. MBSB Research said it expects the government to reiterate in 13MP its commitment towards improving the overall fiscal space by reducing the fiscal deficit to minus 3% of GDP, which is another target set under the FRA2023. 'At this point, we estimate the decline in fiscal deficit towards minus 3.8% of GDP this year looks challenging given the uncertainties on the external front and renewed global trade tensions (triggered by the US tariff hikes). 'Nevertheless, there is a higher chance that the minus 3% GDP target can still be met within the next five years,' it said. However, limiting debt growth remains a challenge. 'The government recently announced that the outstanding government debts reached RM1.3 trillion as of June 2025 (end-2024: RM1.25 trillion), which we estimate will keep the government debt-to-GDP ratio around 65% of GDP this year (2024: 64.6%). 'This suggests the government needs to do more in lowering the ratio to not more than 60% of GDP in the medium term, adhering to the debt limit as set under the FRA2023,' MBSB Research said. On growth, the brokerage projected the economy to expand between 4% and 5% annually in the next five years. 'We expect 13MP development plans will support more sustainable growth of above 4%,' it said. The continued progress in infrastructure projects, a healthy labour market and government initiatives to address structural labour market issues are expected to sustain household spending and investment. MBSB Research highlighted the growing role of private consumption, which now accounts for more than 60% of GDP compared with 45% in 2005-2006. 'While we expect it will be more demanding to keep Malaysia's economic growth to be sustainably above 4%, successful implementation of the 13MP development plans, including catalysts such as the Johor-Singapore Special Economic Zone, could support growth at the upper end of our estimated growth target of 4% to 5% in 2026-2030,' it said. The research house expects the 13MP to be framed around three dimensions: quality and sustainable living, high and equitable income and a sustainable environment. 'Greater confidence by enjoying higher income and improved livelihood will translate into increased domestic spending, especially when there is less concerns about the safety net even after retirement,' it said.
The Star
2 days ago
- Business
- The Star
Tasco likely to post stronger earnings on its new warehouse
MBSB Research said it has kept its earnings projections unchanged. PETALING JAYA: Stronger quarters are envisaged for Tasco Bhd , given improved contributions from its new warehouse and substantial tax savings recognition once investments under the integrated logistics services tax incentives are approved, says MBSB Research. The logistics group posted a net profit of RM19.9mil for the first quarter of financial year 2026 (1Q26), up 30.68% year-on-year, thanks to stronger earnings contribution from its international business solutions (IBS) segment. MBSB Research, formerly MIDF Research, said Tasco's 1Q26 results had met its expectations, with margin recovery starting to take shape. 'We have kept our earnings projections unchanged. 'We anticipate further improvement in the contract logistics segment this financial year, driven by recent additions to its customer base.' Notably, the logistics-based group is largely shielded from tariff-related risks, with the US-bound volumes accounting for less than 5% of its total revenue. The research house had maintained a 'buy' call on the stock with an unchanged target price of 68 sen. Meanwhile, RHB Research, in a note to clients, said better performance in the group's IBS segment was dragged by weaker domestic business solutions (DBS) segment in 1Q26. It noted 1Q26 core profit was also missed on a weaker DBS segment due to slower volume and higher costs. However, the research house said it remained optimistic for stronger quarters ahead on improved contributions from the new warehouse and substantial tax savings. For now, RHB Research had made no changes to its forecasts on Tasco, pending the group's upcoming analysts briefing. 'At this juncture, we remain upbeat for the upcoming quarters of financial year 2026 (FY26), driven by volume recovery, stronger contributions from new warehouses, and higher tax savings,' the research house noted. RHB Research has kept a 'buy' call on the stock with a target price of 86 sen.
BusinessToday
2 days ago
- Business
- BusinessToday
13th MP Poised To Deliver Inclusive Growth And Future-Proof Economy
As the government prepares to table the 13th Malaysia Plan (13MP) in Parliament tomorrow, expectations are high for a blueprint that will deliver sustainable economic growth, equitable income distribution, and a higher quality of life for Malaysians. Anchored around three core themes—Quality and Sustainable Living, High and Equitable Income, and a Sustainable Environment—the plan is expected to build on the momentum of its predecessor while addressing emerging structural challenges. Building on 12MP: Steady Growth Amid External Headwinds Between 2021 and 2025, Malaysia recorded an average GDP growth of 5.1%, at the lower end of the 12MP's target. While recovery from the pandemic initially spurred strong activity, global trade volatility and weaker exports pulled down overall growth. Sectors like construction (+19.7%) and agriculture (+4.0%) outperformed, but mining contracted (-4.5%), while manufacturing and services fell short of targets. Still, strong labour market dynamics helped maintain momentum. Employment rose to nearly 17 million workers, and household spending has become a key growth driver, now accounting for over 60% of GDP—a significant jump from 45% in the mid-2000s. 13MP Outlook: Keeping Growth Above 4% Looking ahead, MBSB Research expects 13MP to target GDP growth of 4.0% to 5.0% over the next five years, supported by: Infrastructure projects like MRT3 and the Johor-Singapore Special Economic Zone (JS-SEZ), Higher public development spending (estimated at RM80 billion annually), Private sector investments and strategic FDIs. The government's commitment to long-term policy continuity is also clear. Flagship blueprints such as the New Industrial Master Plan (NIMP) 2030, National Energy Transition Roadmap (NETR), and National Semiconductor Strategy (NSS) are set to play central roles. Wage Growth, Productivity, and Labour Market Reforms A core pillar of 13MP is expected to be labour market transformation, with emphasis on raising the Compensation of Employees (COE) to 40% of GDP. In 2023, COE rose to 33.1% (from 32.2% during the pandemic slump), supported by robust job growth and wage policies like: Living wage initiatives by GLCs (setting minimum monthly pay at RM3,100), The Progressive Wage Policy (PWP) to drive corporate wage reforms. However, underemployment and skill mismatch remain challenges. As of Q1 2025, 1.95 million Malaysians were underemployed in skill-related jobs. While skilled employment reached 30.2%, the government aims to hit 35% by 2025, aligned with national productivity goals under NIMP. Regional Growth, Aging Population, and the Silver Economy A clear regional shift is underway. East Malaysia is gaining ground through new infrastructure and energy transition projects, while southern Johor stands to benefit from cross-border trade via the JS-SEZ and the RTS link. At the same time, Malaysia's aging population is becoming an economic focus. The 13MP is expected to advance the silver economy, promoting growth in long-term care, retirement housing, medical tourism, and age-related financial services. This transition is critical as Malaysia heads toward becoming an aged nation by 2030, with the total fertility rate now at 1.6. Strategic Focus on Food Security and Export Diversification Food security will be a strategic thrust, with emphasis on: Smart farming and agri-tech to boost domestic crop yields, Reducing import dependence, Engaging youth in agriculture entrepreneurship. Export diversification is also expected to feature prominently in the plan, as Malaysia seeks to reduce reliance on traditional markets. Penetrating ASEAN, the Middle East, and Africa—especially for halal products—will be vital to future-proof trade resilience. Fiscal Reform and Responsible Spending Despite external uncertainties, the government is expected to maintain development spending around RM80 billion annually—roughly 3.3% of GDP—without aggressive austerity measures. The Fiscal Responsibility Act 2023 (FRA2023) will guide commitments to: Reduce fiscal deficit to -3% of GDP by 2030, Keep government debt below 60% of GDP, Optimise public-private partnerships (PPP) to ease fiscal pressure. Bottom Line: The 13MP marks a crucial opportunity for Malaysia to recalibrate its economy for long-term resilience. With strategic interventions across labour reform, regional development, digital transformation, and fiscal sustainability, the plan could usher in a new chapter of inclusive and future-ready growth for the nation. Related
