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Time of India
23-06-2025
- Business
- Time of India
Strait of Hormuz: Oil supply not an issue for India; 'pricing is a bigger concern,' what experts say
Oil supply through the crucial Strait of Hormuz is unlikely to be affected, even though conflict in the Middle-East continues to escalate and crude prices continue to rise. The region remains tense after the recent US strike on Iran, but there is hope that oil supply routes will continue to operate without disruption, experts told ANI. Former HPCL chairman MK Surana said India has reduced its reliance on oil from this region, but warned that any disruption could still push global prices up. 'Any disruption in the Straits and Middle East supply will definitely affect crude oil prices globally. Therefore, for India, pricing is a bigger concern than the availability,' he said. Any immediate disruption to oil supplies passing through the Strait of Hormuz is unlikely, adding, 'General understanding and hope is that the supply chain through the Straits of Hormuz will not get blocked in reality and Iran will not precipitate actions that will damage any oil infrastructure in the neighbouring countries.' As long as these two situations are maintained, crude prices are unlikely to go above the $80 range, though there may be occasional spikes depending on news flow. However, in case these two conditions become reality, prices will rally sharply, he said. Surana noted that under normal supply-demand conditions and without the current geopolitical tensions, crude oil prices would typically range between $60 and $ 65 per barrel. by Taboola by Taboola Sponsored Links Sponsored Links Promoted Links Promoted Links You May Like Trade Bitcoin & Ethereum – No Wallet Needed! IC Markets Start Now Undo Energy expert Narendra Taneja said that the Strait of Hormuz has never been closed before and any move by Iran to block it would invite strong international backlash. 'Almost 39 per cent of our oil import tankers pass through the Strait of Hormuz. So, the impact on India would be there, but our biggest worry is the price, not the supply or availability. If Iran is allowed to succeed in blocking the Strait, oil prices may go up to USD 150 per barrel.' Bank of Baroda's chief economist Madan Sabnavis said short-term price hikes won't hurt India much, but prolonged surges above $100 a barrel could slow the economy. 'A 10 per cent increase may not have much of an impact on the economy where the fundamentals are robust. But if it is over USD 100 for a prolonged period of time, it would mean virtually a 25 per cent increase over the base case assumption and can have a major impact on these variables." Ajay Srivastava of GTRI warned that India is highly exposed if the Strait shuts, with two-thirds of its oil and half its LNG passing through it. In case the Strait is closed, it could spike prices, inflation and government spending. Union petroleum minister Hardeep Singh Puri, however, assured that India is prepared. 'We had diversified the sources of supply. Out of the 5.5 million barrels of crude oil that India consumes daily, about 1.5 to 2 million come through the Straits of Hormuz. We import roughly 4 million barrels through other routes,' he said. He further added that the oil marketing companies have sufficient stocks, with most having stored for up to three weeks. Another company was reported to have a supply sufficient for 25 days. 'We can increase the supply of crude through other routes. We are in touch with all possible actors.' With tensions in the Middle East persisting, India and global markets are keeping a close eye on the situation, hoping the crucial Strait of Hormuz remains open to prevent a steep surge in crude oil prices. Stay informed with the latest business news, updates on bank holidays and public holidays . AI Masterclass for Students. Upskill Young Ones Today!– Join Now
Hindustan Times
23-06-2025
- Business
- Hindustan Times
Oil supply via Strait of Hormuz unlikely to be hit despite Iran-Israel war
Amid the ongoing conflict in the Middle East and rising crude oil prices, energy experts have said that oil supply through the Strait of Hormuz is unlikely to be immediately affected, though risks remain if tensions escalate further. India and global markets remain watchful, hoping that the vital Strait of Hormuz stays open.(AFP) Industry experts, in conversations with ANI, stated that the situation in the region remains tense after the recent US action against Iran, but the general hope is that oil supply routes will stay open. MK Surana, former chairman of Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Limited (HPCL), told ANI, "India has done well to diversify its supply sources in the last few years, and our dependency on Straits of Hormuz and supply from the Middle East is lesser now than what it was earlier. But any disruption in the Straits and Middle East supply will definitely affect crude oil prices globally. Therefore, for India, pricing is a bigger concern than the availability." Surana added that immediately, there is unlikely to be any disruption in supply through the Strait of Hormuz. "Post US action on Sunday in Iran, the situation is of an uneasy calm awaiting Iranian response. General understanding and hope is that the supply chain through the Straits of Hormuz will not get blocked in reality and Iran will not precipitate actions that will damage any oil infrastructure in the neighbouring countries," he said. However, "Despite a looming threat, till these two situations hold, the crude oil prices are unlikely to go above the USD 80 range, though there may be occasional spikes depending on news flow. But if any of the two situations happens in reality, the crude prices will rise sharply," noted the ex-HPCL Chairman. Surana explained that fundamentally, based on supply-demand projections and without the current geopolitical tensions, crude oil prices would be in the range of USD 60 to 65 per barrel. Prominent energy expert Narendra Taneja echoed similar views. He told ANI, "The Strait of Hormuz has never ever been closed or blocked in history. It will be a major escalation if there is any attempt on the part of Iran to close the Strait. The US would most likely respond militarily and not let Iran block it. Major oil exporters Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and Iraq would also protest. Big importers like China and India would protest." On the impact on India, Taneja stated, "Almost 39 per cent of our oil import tankers pass through the Strait of Hormuz. So, the impact on India would be there, but our biggest worry is the price, not the supply or availability. If Iran is allowed to succeed in blocking the Strait, oil prices may go up to USD 150 per barrel." Madan Sabnavis, Chief Economist of Bank of Baroda, said, "A 10 per cent increase may not have much of an impact on the economy where the fundamentals are robust. But if it is over USD 100 for a prolonged period of time, it would mean virtually a 25 per cent increase over the base case assumption and can have a major impact on these variables." He added that the impact on GDP will depend mainly on how inflation behaves and how it affects consumption. Ajay Srivastava of Global Trade and Research Initiative (GTRI) highlighted India's vulnerability, stating, "India is especially vulnerable to a possible Strait of Hormuz closure. Nearly two-thirds of its crude oil and half of its LNG imports transit this route. Any closure could send oil prices soaring, sharply inflating India's import bill, worsening inflation, and putting pressure on the country's fiscal position." "The Strait, which carries nearly 25 per cent of global oil shipments and significant LNG volumes, remains open for now. The parliamentary vote is not binding; a final decision rests with Iran's Supreme National Security Council, which is still deliberating. While no closure has been enacted yet, the risk of disruption looms amid escalating U.S.-Iran tensions," he noted further. Meanwhile, Union Petroleum Minister Hardeep Singh Puri, while speaking with ANI, assured that India is prepared for such risks. He said, "We had diversified the sources of supply. Out of the 5.5 million barrels of crude oil that India consumes daily, about 1.5 to 2 million come through the Straits of Hormuz. We import roughly 4 million barrels through other routes." Puri added, "Our oil marketing companies have enough stocks. Most of them have stocks up to three weeks. One of them has 25 days' stock. We can increase the supply of crude through other routes. We are in touch with all possible actors." As tensions in the Middle East continue, India and global markets remain watchful, hoping that the vital Strait of Hormuz stays open and uninterrupted to avoid a sharp rise in crude oil prices.
Times of Oman
23-06-2025
- Business
- Times of Oman
Supply not an issue for India, price is; If crude price crosses $100, India will be impacted: Experts
New Delhi: Amid the ongoing conflict in the Middle East and rising crude oil prices, energy experts have said that oil supply through the Strait of Hormuz is unlikely to be immediately affected, though risks remain if tensions escalate further. Industry experts, in conversations with ANI, stated that the situation in the region remains tense after the recent US action against Iran, but the general hope is that oil supply routes will stay open. MK Surana, former chairman of Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Limited (HPCL), told ANI, "India has done well to diversify its supply sources in the last few years, and our dependency on Straits of Hormuz and supply from the Middle East is lesser now than what it was earlier. But any disruption in the Straits and Middle East supply will definitely affect crude oil prices globally. Therefore, for India, pricing is a bigger concern than the availability." Surana added that immediately, there is unlikely to be any disruption in supply through the Strait of Hormuz. "Post US action on Sunday in Iran, the situation is of an uneasy calm awaiting Iranian response. General understanding and hope is that the supply chain through the Straits of Hormuz will not get blocked in reality and Iran will not precipitate actions that will damage any oil infrastructure in the neighbouring countries," he said. However, "Despite a looming threat, till these two situations hold, the crude oil prices are unlikely to go above the USD 80 range, though there may be occasional spikes depending on news flow. But if any of the two situations happens in reality, the crude prices will rise sharply," noted the ex-HPCL Chairman. Surana explained that fundamentally, based on supply-demand projections and without the current geopolitical tensions, crude oil prices would be in the range of USD 60 to 65 per barrel. Prominent energy expert Narendra Taneja echoed similar views. He told ANI, "The Strait of Hormuz has never ever been closed or blocked in history. It will be a major escalation if there is any attempt on the part of Iran to close the Strait. The US would most likely respond militarily and not let Iran block it. Major oil exporters Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and Iraq would also protest. Big importers like China and India would protest." On the impact on India, Taneja stated, "Almost 39 per cent of our oil import tankers pass through the Strait of Hormuz. So, the impact on India would be there, but our biggest worry is the price, not the supply or availability. If Iran is allowed to succeed in blocking the Strait, oil prices may go up to USD 150 per barrel." Madan Sabnavis, Chief Economist of Bank of Baroda, said, "A 10 per cent increase may not have much of an impact on the economy where the fundamentals are robust. But if it is over USD 100 for a prolonged period of time, it would mean virtually a 25 per cent increase over the base case assumption and can have a major impact on these variables." He added that the impact on GDP will depend mainly on how inflation behaves and how it affects consumption. Ajay Srivastava of Global Trade and Research Initiative (GTRI) highlighted India's vulnerability, stating, "India is especially vulnerable to a possible Strait of Hormuz closure. Nearly two-thirds of its crude oil and half of its LNG imports transit this route. Any closure could send oil prices soaring, sharply inflating India's import bill, worsening inflation, and putting pressure on the country's fiscal position." "The Strait, which carries nearly 25 per cent of global oil shipments and significant LNG volumes, remains open for now. The parliamentary vote is not binding; a final decision rests with Iran's Supreme National Security Council, which is still deliberating. While no closure has been enacted yet, the risk of disruption looms amid escalating U.S.-Iran tensions," he noted further. Meanwhile, Union Petroleum Minister Hardeep Singh Puri, while speaking with ANI, assured that India is prepared for such risks. He said, "We had diversified the sources of supply. Out of the 5.5 million barrels of crude oil that India consumes daily, about 1.5 to 2 million come through the Straits of Hormuz. We import roughly 4 million barrels through other routes." Puri added, "Our oil marketing companies have enough stocks. Most of them have stocks up to three weeks. One of them has 25 days' stock. We can increase the supply of crude through other routes. We are in touch with all possible actors." As tensions in the Middle East continue, India and global markets remain watchful, hoping that the vital Strait of Hormuz stays open and uninterrupted to avoid a sharp rise in crude oil prices.
Time of India
14-06-2025
- Business
- Time of India
Oil up 8%, but India may not feel much pain
NEW DELHI: The Israel-Iran conflict may not immediately disrupt global oil supplies , but the tensions could keep prices elevated, squeezing oil marketing companies' margins while having little impact on consumer prices, according to executives at Indian refining firms. An Israeli strike on Iranian nuclear and military facilities, followed by Iran's vow to retaliate, sent shockwaves through the oil market on Friday, pushing benchmark Brent crude up 8 per cent to $75 a barrel. "It is in the interest of the US, Iran, and other West Asian producers to keep oil flowing without disruption," said a refinery executive, speaking on the condition of anonymity. "Producers in the region will not want their trade disrupted, and Trump will be wary of global supply shocks that could push up US pump prices." "India's crude supply basket is currently well-diversified and West Asia has a comparatively smaller footprint than it was a decade ago," said M K Surana, the CEO of Ratnagiri Refinery and Petrochemicals Ltd and former chief of HPCL . Russia currently supplies about 40 per cent of India's crude imports. "More than supply, it's the price risk that's more relevant to India. This can weigh on oil marketing companies' margins." "Structurally, the global oil market supports lower crude oil prices with increased OPEC+ supplies and weak demand growth. But escalating geopolitical tensions brings in risk premium in oil prices, higher freight and insurance costs," Surana said. "Speculation creates upward momentum in prices." Despite the rise in crude prices, domestic fuel rates are unlikely to be affected as pump prices in India are already at elevated levels, said another executive.
Time of India
13-06-2025
- Business
- Time of India
Oil up 8%, but India may not feel much pain
NEW DELHI: The Israel-Iran conflict may not immediately disrupt global oil supplies , but the tensions could keep prices elevated, squeezing oil marketing companies' margins while having little impact on consumer prices, according to executives at Indian refining firms. An Israeli strike on Iranian nuclear and military facilities, followed by Iran's vow to retaliate, sent shockwaves through the oil market on Friday, pushing benchmark Brent crude up 8% to $75 a barrel. "It is in the interest of the US, Iran, and other West Asian producers to keep oil flowing without disruption," said a refinery executive, speaking on the condition of anonymity. "Producers in the region will not want their trade disrupted, and Trump will be wary of global supply shocks that could push up US pump prices." "India's crude supply basket is currently well-diversified and West Asia has a comparatively smaller footprint than it was a decade ago," said M K Surana, the CEO of Ratnagiri Refinery and Petrochemicals Ltd and former chief of HPCL . Russia currently supplies about 40% of India's crude imports. "More than supply, it's the price risk that's more relevant to India. This can weigh on oil marketing companies' margins." "Structurally, the global oil market supports lower crude oil prices with increased OPEC+ supplies and weak demand growth. But escalating geopolitical tensions brings in risk premium in oil prices, higher freight and insurance costs," Surana said. "Speculation creates upward momentum in prices." Despite the rise in crude prices, domestic fuel rates are unlikely to be affected as pump prices in India are already at elevated levels, said another executive. Economic Times WhatsApp channel )
