Latest news with #MLIV
Mint
23-07-2025
- Business
- Mint
Japan 40-Year Bond Auction Sees Weakest Demand Ratio Since 2011
Japan's 40-year government bond auction saw its weakest demand since 2011 amid concerns over government spending and after the US and Japan reached a trade deal. The bid-to-cover ratio, a measure of demand, came in at 2.127, compared to 2.214 at the previous auction. The sale comes after Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba's ruling coalition failed to win a majority in the upper house at a vote on Sunday. Fiscal concerns are ramping up after local media reports on Wednesday said that the nation's leader will announce his resignation in August. Bond yields Wednesday rose across the curve following US President Donald Trump's announcement of a 15% tariff on imports from Japan. The benchmark Topix and Nikkei 225 share gauges both rallied more than 3% as market sentiment improved. What Bloomberg strategists say: Long-term JGBs will continue to struggle after the 40-year auction posted the weakest demand since 2011 and that suggests more curve steepening is on the way. — Mark Cranfield, MLIV Strategist. Read more on MLIV Yields have traded recently at multi-year highs at a time when the Bank of Japan has been gradually paring back its massive bond purchases. The Ministry of Finance reduced the issuance of longer-maturity bonds from this month to calm the volatility in the bond market. BOJ Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida indicated there's little immediate need to raise the benchmark interest rate in a speech delivered shortly after Trump's announcement. Overnight index swaps show a more than 80% chance of a rate hike by the end of the year on Wednesday, compared to 59% a day earlier. This article was generated from an automated news agency feed without modifications to text.
Bloomberg
17-07-2025
- Business
- Bloomberg
No Position or Reduced Position Amid Tariff Uncertainty?
Kokou Agbo-Bloua, global head of economics and cross asset at Societe Generale, discusses the impact of ongoing trade tensions on global financial markets. "When we talk to investors, maybe the best trades -- the best position -- is to have no position, or at least a reduced position given the uncertainty," Agbo-Bloua tells Bloomberg Television. For live markets updates follow MLIV. (Source: Bloomberg)
Mint
01-07-2025
- Automotive
- Mint
Japan's 10-Year Bond Auction Gives Support Ahead of 30-Year Sale
Demand at Japan's sale of 10-year government notes was relatively strong in a boost to sentiment going into a key auction of 30-year bonds later this week. The bid-to-cover ratio was at 3.51, higher than the 12-month average of 3.14, as expectations for rate hikes by the central bank receded and upward pressure on longer-maturity yields eased. Ten-year bonds rallied. Japan's sovereign debt auctions have been in the spotlight since late May after a poorly received auction of 20-year bonds sent super-long yields to record highs. That spike in yields flowed through into global debt markets, where investors have been on guard over expanding government deficits, and prompted Japan's Ministry of Finance to tweak its issuance plans from this month. 'Market sentiment seems to be good for JGBs entering a new quarter, especially after the meeting between the MOF and primary dealers late last month resulted in a reduction of super-long bond issuance amounts,' said Anmol Agrawal, a strategist at Intouch Capital Markets Pte. 'The litmus test for markets will now be the upcoming 30-year bond auction on Thursday.' The 10-year JGB yield fell 4 basis points to 1.39% to the lowest since June 13th after the auction results. Bond futures rose 20 ticks to 139.22. Ten-year notes serve as a benchmark for Japan's long-term lending rates, and play a key role in influencing mortgage rates and corporate borrowing costs. The bond auction was 'very strong,' said Miki Den, a senior rates strategist at SMBC Nikko Securities Inc. Many investors may have judged that the Bank of Japan cannot raise interest rates until there's a recovery in sentiment in the automobile sector, which dropped significantly in the Tankan survey, he said. The sale comes after results from a confidence survey among Japan's largest manufacturers edged up in June. That said, there are lingering concerns as the auto sector remains under pressure as Japan continues to seek a comprehensive agreement that includes sector-specific tariffs which includes carmakers. But still, the lack of a meaningful decline in 30- and 40-year yields suggests that caution surrounding super-long bonds remains, as the market still has to navigate a 30-year bond sale on Thursday. What Bloomberg Strategists Say... JGB futures are firmer after Tuesday's 10-year auction produced solid metrics, but the good mood will struggle to sustain after the strong Tankan report that came earlier. The data opened the door for BOJ Governor Ueda to lean hawkish when he speaks later today at Sintra in Portugal. With a tricky 30-year debt sale still to come on Thursday, JGB traders are likely to curb their enthusiasm. — Mark Cranfield, MLIV Strategist. Read more on MLIV The bid-to-cover ratio at Tuesday's sale was slightly lower than 3.66 at last month's auction of that tenor. The tail, or gap between average and lowest-accepted prices, came in at 0.03, compared with 0.01 previously. In order to stabilize demand for Japanese government bonds, the finance ministry announced changes to its bond issuance plan in June. The 10-year issuance amount was left unchanged, underscoring steady investor appetite for the sector. The ministry will reduce issuance of 20-, 30- and 40-year bonds from this month. Separately, the Bank of Japan said last month it would slow down its withdrawal from the market from next year in a move aimed at ensuring stability. With assistance from Masahiro Hidaka, Umesh Desai and Hidenori Yamanaka. This article was generated from an automated news agency feed without modifications to text.
Los Angeles Times
06-06-2025
- Business
- Los Angeles Times
Stocks will rally despite extended dollar declines, markets survey finds
US equities will put the worst of this year's trade-war turmoil behind them and rally to fresh highs in 2025, according to a survey of Bloomberg subscribers who attended a panel discussion on macro trends. The S&P 500 will climb to 6,500 — a better than 9% increase from Thursday's close — by year-end, according to 44% of the 27 responses in a Markets Live Pulse survey. The index was seen reaching that level by the first half of next year by 26% of participants, with 11% saying it would happen in the second half and the remainder estimating 2027 or later. A rally to 6,500 would likely mean the market fully moves on from concerns that President Donald Trump's tariffs may severely damage the economy. It would represent a substantial recovery from the impact of the trade war, which currently has the US benchmark hovering just above its starting level for 2025. Expectations for the dollar are gloomier, with 68% of the 25 respondents to that question forecasting the US currency will keep falling at least until the first half of next year. That includes the 40% of participants who expect the depreciation trend to extend into 2027. The MLIV panel discussed both whether US exceptionalism in equities was past its use-by date, and the potential that concerns about how sustainable the dollar's haven role has become. The survey responses may be taken to signal doubts that US equities will be knocked from their perch anytime soon, especially given the still-positive impacts from the AI boom expected to feed through into corporate earnings. The dollar's downtrend is seen as far more sustainable. That signals respondents may be leaning into the idea that the currency channel will go on being the clearest expression of concerns regarding US assets in general. If investors are going to be demanding a greater premium to put their money into the US that will come via a lower US dollar level, rather than via sustained, serious declines in nominal asset prices. As for Treasuries, responses were more evenly split. A modest majority, 56% of the 25 who answered that question, expected the 10-year yield to end 2025 at 4.6% or above. That included the 24% of the total who forecast it would be above 5%. The yield was at 4.39% on Thursday. Some 20% saw it dropping below 4%. The MLIV Pulse survey was conducted among Bloomberg clients immediately after MLIV's Money & Macro panel held Thursday on How to Trade the New Markets Regime. Sign up for future surveys here. Reynolds writes for Bloomberg
Yahoo
26-04-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Rally to Run Until US Economy Hits a Wall: 3-Minute MLIV
Guy Johnson, Lizzy Burden and Paul Dobson break down today's key themes for analysts and investors on "Bloomberg: The Opening Trade." For up to the minute market intelligence and insight, click MLIV .
