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Calgary Herald
15-07-2025
- Business
- Calgary Herald
'I don't think we are bouncing back': Struggling Toronto housing market could remain fragile through 2025, realtors say
Article content By Shayan Alvi Article content Despite a slight month-over-month uptick in home sales in the Greater Toronto Area in June, many in the real estate industry expect that a lack of willing buyers will make for a fragile housing market for the remainder of 2025. Article content Data from the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB) showed an increase in listings, slightly higher month-over-month sales and lower average prices for June. Article content Article content ' I don't think we are bouncing back, the pendulum isn't swinging back. We're just kind of in a holding pattern,' said Scott Ingram, a Toronto sales representative with Century 21 Regal Realty Inc. 'No matter how you look at price, whether you take average price or the home price index, those are softer than they were last year.' Article content A total of 6,243 homes were sold in June 2025 across the Greater Toronto Area (GTA), marking a 2.4 per cent decrease from last year. New listings rose 7.7 per cent from last year to 19,839. Article content The MLS Home Price Index (HPI) composite benchmark fell 5.5 per cent year over year in June, while the average selling price of $1,101,691 was down 5.4 per cent compared with June 2024. On a seasonally adjusted month-over-month basis, both the MLS HPI and average price edged lower from May. Article content Article content TRREB president Elechia Barry-Sproule said improved affordability from lower borrowing costs and the high levels of inventory were making home ownership 'a more attainable goal for many households.' Article content Article content But some realtors were reluctant to call it a rebound. Daniel Foch, chief real estate officer at Valery Real Estate Inc. in Toronto, said an increase in transactions is what signals a recovery, not necessarily just a drop in price. Article content ' What realtors see as a form of recovery would be more transactions. More downside on price means more transactions because if prices come down, more buyers can afford to buy those homes,' Foch said. Article content However, the recovery has not started, he said, and predicted July and August will be 'slow months' before the market has any chance of picking up in the fall.
Time of India
12-07-2025
- Business
- Time of India
Home prices rise in some cities, drop in others: How Canada's property market is shifting after the trade war
People across Canada who are planning to purchase a home can enter the market as uncertainty around the trade war has started to ease, with prices dropping in certain areas. Some cities, however, remain robust with strong prices, according to an RBC economist. According to the statistics of the local real estate board, there was a modest increase in the number of transactions between May and June 2025 in several major markets, including Vancouver, Edmonton, Regina, Saskatoon, Toronto, and Halifax. The gains recorded, however, constitute a fraction of pullbacks earlier this year. 'When you look at various metrics, you know buyers now have much more of a stronger hand when negotiating prices,' CTV News quoted Robert Hogue, assistant chief economist for RBC, as saying. by Taboola by Taboola Sponsored Links Sponsored Links Promoted Links Promoted Links You May Like Golfer Ollie Schniederjans Scores A Surprise Four-Shot Victory Golf Asia Read More Undo The MLS Home Price Index (HPI) dropped in Toronto, Vancouver, southern Ontario, and Lower Mainland markets, CTV News reported. Inventory in these markets has risen to historically high levels, and buyers are facing stretched affordability conditions. 'Markets in southern Ontario, as well as B.C., are soft; however, it looks like, over the last couple of months, the slide in activity appears to be now stabilizing, so things don't look like they're getting any softer from an activity perspective,' Hogue said. Live Events 'But prices continue to fall in those markets. That's likely because of a stretch of affordability that's holding back a lot of buyers who can't get up prices in the current context, and the fact that those markets are heavily in favour of buyers. At this point, there's a lot of competition between sellers and less between buyers, so those markets are seeing price declines,' he added. Meanwhile, in several other cities, the value of property continues to be on the higher side. These markets include the Prairies, Quebec, and the Atlantic region, supported by still tight (and, in some cases, very tight) supply-demand conditions. 'In other parts of the country, the situation is different,' said Hogue. 'We've seen some correction during the spring in the face of the trade war; that affected confidence across the board. But the level of activity, in most cases—I'm thinking in particular in the prairies, either in Saskatchewan or in Alberta—to a fair extent, not everywhere, but to a fair extent, the level of activity is still pretty robust. When you compare it to pre-pandemic levels, it's sort of the same situation in markets like Montreal, for example. Now we've seen a bit of a slowdown lately, but nonetheless, the level is still, I would argue, pretty comparable relative to the pre-pandemic level,' he added. Buyers in Toronto have bargaining power In Toronto, buyers have plenty of options, a situation not seen in the city in decades, as the number of homes for sale continues to surge. The trend favours buyers and gives them more time to make decisions and negotiate. Toronto's MLS HPI in June 2025 was down 5.5 per cent (or more than $58,000) year over year and lower by 0.9 per cent from May, according to CTV News. Condo apartments saw the largest drop, falling eight per cent because of an abundant supply, but every housing type experienced some loss in value. Sellers are holding back in Montreal According to RBC, Montreal's recovery has stalled this year because of the trade war. The bank estimates that resales dropped for the third consecutive month between May and June, falling by about two per cent. Still, resales are staying at levels that would have been considered strong before the pandemic. Prices see downtrend in Vancouver As far as Vancouver is concerned, the slide in resales in Vancouver is stabilizing, though prices remain firmly on a downward track. According to CTV News, Vancouver's MLS HPI declined 2.8 per cent from a year ago (2024), marking the fourth straight month of annual declines. The supply and demand situation in the city is favouring the buyers, giving them control amid rising inventories. Active listings reached a 13-year high in June, yet home resales rose for the first time this year, up more than two per cent in May.
Vancouver Sun
19-06-2025
- Business
- Vancouver Sun
'Disappointing at best': Vancouver real estate prices falling, but sales slow
House prices have fallen more in Metro Vancouver than in the rest of the country, but that has not necessarily translated into increased sales. The average house prices in Greater Vancouver fell to $1.2 million in April from $1.3 million in April 2024, a 6.6 per cent decline. By comparison, Greater Toronto had a 4.2 per cent decline in prices in the same period, according to Zoocasa, a real estate listing site and company, which analyzed monthly benchmark prices released by the Canadian Real Estate Association. Nationally, there was an average 3.5 per cent drop. The most significant price drops in Metro Vancouver were in eastern Burnaby, where the benchmark price fell seven per cent from May 2024 to May 2025 to $1.09 million. West Vancouver saw a six per cent drop to $2.49 million, and Richmond saw a 5.2 per cent decline to $1.13 million. Stay on top of the latest real estate news and home design trends. By signing up you consent to receive the above newsletter from Postmedia Network Inc. A welcome email is on its way. If you don't see it, please check your junk folder. The next issue of Westcoast Homes will soon be in your inbox. Please try again Interested in more newsletters? Browse here. Meanwhile, the number of sales, year-over-year, is still falling here and in some other markets, but nationally, there were early signs that the number of sales may be increasing. In May, residential sales in Metro Vancouver totalled only 2,228, a sharp 18.5 per cent drop year-over-year and more than 30 per cent below the 10-year average. Across the country, home sales fell a more moderate 4.3 per cent, year-over-year, in May, according to the real estate association. But they were up 3.6 per cent from April to May, the first month-over-month increase at the national level in more than six months, driven largely by the Toronto and Calgary markets. The senior economist at the Canadian Real Estate Association, which represents hundreds of thousands of real estate agents, boards and associations, was careful to say the national trend of sales and prices is only based on one month of data. Real estate boards use what is known as the MLS Home Price Index, which is a benchmark price that tracks so-called typical homes in different categories. Homes are chosen yearly for being 'in the middle of the pack' when it comes to quantitative attributes, such as above-ground square footage or number of rooms, and having qualitative features, such as a fireplace or access to a garage. Boards prefer this index since taking an average of sale prices in an area in a given month to calculate how much they have increased or decreased can be skewed if there is a large sale or an unusual one. However, using the average of sale prices is a closer indicator of what is happening in real time in a market. Real estate agents in Metro Vancouver note there are additional factors when thinking about home prices and the overall market. Surrey-based real estate agent Mayur Arora said that real estate board benchmark and average prices don't include sales of new units, mostly condos and townhomes. Some developers have been discounting prices of these to move them, and including these would give a truer snapshot of overall market prices. Everyone is looking for signs of what will motivate buyers who have been sitting on the sidelines, said Arora. 'Spring has been disappointing at best. It feels like being in a swimming pool and you can't touch the bottom, but your toe can feel that this is it soon,' he said, explaining that buyers want to know that prices have stabilized before buying, which may be why sales are down or flat even though prices have fallen. Vancouver real estate agent Kevin Banno recently put a North Vancouver home on Delbrook Avenue under contract for about $300,000 over its asking price of $1.999 million. He thought the large lot with views, but a rundown, vacant home on a street with much more expensive homes worth between $4 million to $6 million might draw a builder or developer. Banno received eight offers all over the asking price, an indication of how the market is eager to buy certain properties and how much money there is sitting on the sidelines for these, said Arora. This isn't the case for other listings where there is a lot of selection of the same kind of product, said Banno. 'There's no urgency. If it's a duplex on a single-family lot on the east side or the west side, it's just crickets. You get the classic line, 'I loved it and I have 12 more to see.'' jlee-young@
Yahoo
19-05-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Capital Economics: BoC poised for deeper rate cuts amid housing, factory weakness
-- Signs show that U.S. tariffs are finally weakening the Canadian economy, increasing the likelihood of Bank of Canada interest rate cuts at an aggressive pace, says Capital Economics. In a Friday report, the research firm pointed to a softening housing market as a main indicator, further reinforced by a decline in manufacturing sales volumes. The housing sector is leading the downturn, with April's MLS Home Price Index falling 1.2% month-on-month, the steepest decline in several months. Annual house price inflation dropped to -3.4%, reinforcing expectations for a 5% annual decline in prices by the end of 2025. Home sales remain soft, with overall transactions flat at 430,000 annualized units and new listings falling 1%, helping to stabilize the sales-to-new listings ratio. Capital Economics points to U.S. auto and steel tariffs, not weather, as the main driver of waning demand, especially among owner-occupiers. Manufacturing is facing its own contraction, as March sales fell by 1.4% in nominal terms and 1.1% in real terms, the sharpest drop since mid-2024. Key subsectors like primary metals and motor vehicles suffered as tariff-driven front-loading of orders in prior months began to reverse. Softer factory activity is now bleeding into the labor market, with manufacturing employment down 30,000 in April. Capital Economics expects this trend to continue as the full impact of U.S. trade measures works its way through domestic production and exports. Consumer price data for April, due on May 20, may offer some relief to policymakers. Headline CPI is forecast to fall by 0.6% on the month, dragging the annual rate to 1.6%, while core trim inflation is expected to tick higher to 2.9% due to stronger goods prices. Retail sales for March, due May 23, are expected to rebound 0.9% after February's 0.4% decline. Lower gasoline prices and resilient demand, in spite of weakened confidence, suggest that households are still supporting modest GDP growth in Q2 2025. Capital Economics forecasts GDP growth to slow to 0.7% annualized in both Q2 and Q3, with full-year growth expected at 1.6% for 2025 before slipping to 1.0% in 2026. 'We think the Bank of Canada will need to lower interest rates more than markets are pricing in,' the firm wrote, projecting a policy rate of 2.00% by year-end, well below current market expectations. Related articles Capital Economics: BoC poised for deeper rate cuts amid housing, factory weakness China urges U.S. to act 'responsibly' after Moody's downgrade 'From Tariff Man to Global Salesman' Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Global News
15-05-2025
- Business
- Global News
Canadian real estate market entering a ‘transition period,' says CREA
The latest data suggests Canada's housing market may be showing a sense of calm amid an uncertain trade war, and that things may be starting to slowly pick up. According to the latest report from the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA), April saw actual home sales fall 9.8 per cent compared to the same period in 2024. 'Actual' in this sense means the data counts the total number of sales recorded in the month. However, on a seasonally-adjusted basis, the report for April showed national home sales were virtually unchanged from March of this year, with a drop of 0.1 per cent. This 'seasonally-adjusted' method of analysis is preferred by most economists because it eliminates seasonal variations and highlights the underlying economic picture. 'Sales have been falling rapidly, really since January 20th, when the tariffs were first announced, we could see it in daily data,' says senior economist Shaun Cathcart at CREA. Story continues below advertisement 'And so as of March, we were 20 per cent down from just November, and that's huge. What stood out in April was that we didn't fall at all, just sort of paused. So in that sense, I guess flat is the new up.' 4:10 Pressure for the Bank of Canada to lower interest rates The report also shows the number of new properties added to the real estate market fell by one per cent in April compared to March, and the MLS Home Price Index (the average listing price) fell 1.2 per cent. Get breaking National news For news impacting Canada and around the world, sign up for breaking news alerts delivered directly to you when they happen. Sign up for breaking National newsletter Sign Up By providing your email address, you have read and agree to Global News' Terms and Conditions and Privacy Policy Compared to 2024, listing prices fell an average of 3.6 per cent across Canada, and the actual sale price was down 3.9 per cent compared to April of last year. 'So sellers are definitely willing to give a little bit, understanding that it's not the same market that it was four years ago, but it's not to the point where prices are in free fall,' says Cathcart. Story continues below advertisement 'It's still a negotiation, and I think people are still coming to a mutually agreed upon result at this point.' 4:55 New cabinet role puts former Vancouver mayor back in the spotlight The outlook for the trade war has many buyers and sellers waiting on the sidelines to see how tariffs will develop, as well as interest rates determined by the Bank of Canada which affects mortgage rates for home buyers. This new data from CREA suggests the real estate market may have already seen the worst of the impacts. 'Right now we're in the transition period between uncertainty and the certainty that this (trade war) is going to be damaging to our economy,' says Cathcart. 'I think that the fear, the risk is if we have massive layoffs, then you'd get a lot of people that have to sell and can't wait and can't negotiate and just have to get rid of that asset. We're not there yet, but certainly that's the risk of this trade war.'
