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First Post
19-06-2025
- Politics
- First Post
What is the Sejjil missile that Iran launched in its latest attack on Israel?
Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) on Thursday launched the Sejjil medium-range ballistic missile (MRBM) in an attack on Israel – the first time it has used this weapon during the conflict. But what do we know about it? Could this mark a turning point? read more A Sejjil missile is being moved along the reviewing stand during a military parade to commemorate the anniversary of the start of the 1980-1988 Iran-Iraq war, in Tehran September 22, 2009. REUTERS/Raheb Homavandi (IRAN POLITICS MILITARY) Iran on Thursday fired a Sejjil missile at Israel. This marks the first time Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has launched this medium-range ballistic missile (MRBM) in an attack on Israel. 'The twelfth wave of Operation 'True Promise 3' has begun with the launch of ultra-heavy, long-range, two-stage Sejjil missiles," the IRGC said in a statement. 'Sejjil missiles, powered by solid fuel and with long-range capabilities, are among Iran's most accurate and powerful strategic weapons. They possess the ability to penetrate and destroy critical enemy targets.' STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD Iran launched 'Operation True Promise 3' to counter Israel's 'Operation Rising Lion'. But what do we know about the Sejjil missile? Let's take a closer look: What do we know? The Sejjil is an indigenously-designed and developed two-stage, solid-propellant ballistic missile. It is also known as the Sajjil, Ashoura, and Ashura missile. Read Israel Iran conflict live updates Work on designing the Sejjil missile began in the early 1990s. It built off the previous work on the Zelzal short-range ballistic missile (SRBM) – with assistance from China. The Sejjil missile is around 18 meters long and 1.25 metres wide It weighs 23,600 kilos and carried a 700 kilo warhead. It can carry both normal explosives and nuclear warheads. It has a range of around 2,000 kilometers – which puts the entirety of West Asia in its range. Though its technical specifications are similar to Iran's Shahab 3 variants, those missiles were liquid-fuelled. The Sejjil missile can be launched much quicker than the Shahab 3, which needs to be fuelled before being launched. The solid fuel also allows the muscle to be easily transported by road. However, these missiles can be more difficult to navigate. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD Israeli air defense system fires to intercept missiles during an Iranian attack over Tel Aviv, Israel, early Wednesday, June 18, 2025. (AP Photo/Leo Correa) The missile was first tested in 2008 and then again in 2009. Iran has tested the missile at least four times since then – the last one being in 2012 when the missile went into the Indian Ocean. Iran then inducted the missile into service. The missile is said to have multiple variants. A Sejjil 3.0 missile is said to be in the works. It is said to have a range of 4000 kilometers, weigh around 38,000 kilos and be a three-stage missile. Iran in 2021 claimed it had added 'enhanced inertial navigation and jet vane control' to the missile to make it more accurate. Could it be a turning point in the war? It depends on whether the Sejjil managed to penetrate Israel's air defences – which remains unconfirmed. The IRGC's claim comes on a day when Iran hit a number of targets in Israel including the Soroka Medical Center in Beersheba city, the Tel Aviv Stock Exchange and residential buildings. However, Israel claims it has intercepted this missile, whose fragments caused only minor damage to a vehicle. Israel, meanwhile, struck a heavy water reactor linked to Iran's nuclear program. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD Israeli Defence Minister Israel Katz blamed Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and said the military 'has been instructed and knows that in order to achieve all of its goals, this man absolutely should not continue to exist.' US officials said earlier this week that President Donald Trump had vetoed an Israeli plan to kill Khamenei. Trump later said there were no plans to kill him, 'at least not for now.' With inputs from agencies
Time of India
18-06-2025
- Business
- Time of India
Israel-Iran conflict: This number could define the outcome
The battle between Iran and Israel has escalated into one of the Middle East's most defining confrontations in decades, and the fate of the conflict may hinge on a deceptively simple number: how many medium-range ballistic missiles (MRBMs) Iran has left. Tired of too many ads? go ad free now According to Israeli military data and independent expert estimates, Iran has fired around 700 MRBMs at Israel over the past 14 months, including more than 380 in just the last six days. That leaves Tehran's remaining stockpile somewhere between 300 and 1,300 missiles, depending on who you ask—a wide range that underscores just how murky and consequential the numbers game has become. A war of attrition and estimation The Iranian arsenal has been battered not only by its own usage but also by Israel's relentless six-day aerial assault. The Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) claim to have taken out at least a third of Iran's MRBM launchers, directly impacting Tehran's ability to sustain long-range attacks. "If these launch estimates hold, Iran's deterrence capabilities are hanging by a thread," CNN quoted Behnam Ben Taleblu, a senior fellow at the foundation for the defense of democracies. He warns that Iran's missile stockpile may soon drop "below four digits"—a psychological and strategic red line for the Islamic Republic. Taleblu noted that Iran's missile strategy relies heavily on overwhelming quantity rather than cutting-edge technology. "For the Islamic Republic, quantity has a quality of its own," he said. "Losing that quantity threatens their entire warfighting doctrine." Cracks in Iran's defense and production Damage to Iran's infrastructure may be even more severe than previously acknowledged. UK chief of the defence staff admiral Tony Radakin revealed in December that 100 Israeli aircraft launched a devastating barrage that nearly wiped out Iran's air defense network and its ballistic missile production capabilities—for a full year. Tired of too many ads? go ad free now Israeli intelligence further claims that strikes earlier this year destroyed key facilities responsible for missile motor production, severely disrupting Iran's supply chain. However, experts caution that foreign support, especially from China, could help Iran recover and rebuild its production lines faster than expected. Despite this, conflicting narratives persist. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu recently claimed Iran could ramp up production to 300 missiles a month, theoretically reaching 20,000 missiles in six years. But he offered no concrete evidence for the claim, prompting skepticism from analysts. Running on empty—or playing possum? Iran has so far refused to disclose its actual missile count. But according to Dr Eyal Pinko, a former Israeli naval intelligence officer and current fellow at the Begin-Sadat Center, the current estimate ranges between 700 and 800 MRBMs left, factoring in recent launches and confirmed losses. For Tehran, this situation is precarious. Iran is not known for conventional warfighting prowess, and it historically leans on its missile arsenal as both deterrent and diplomatic leverage. If its MRBM supply dips too low, Iran could be forced into negotiations from a position of weakness—or escalate the conflict in desperation. As Israeli airpower continues to pound Iranian positions, the war appears to be shifting from a contest of ideologies to one of inventory. In this war of missiles, every launch narrows Tehran's strategic options—and may ultimately determine whether the conflict burns out or blows up.
CNN
17-06-2025
- Politics
- CNN
One number could define the Iran-Israel conflict's outcome
The outcome of the defining conflict between Iran and Israel may depend on one simple number, which is at very best a rough estimate. Israeli military data and expert analysis say Iran has fired about 700 of its medium-range ballistic missiles (MRBM) at Israel over the past 14 months, leaving it with anything between 300 to 1,300 left in its stockpile. This remaining arsenal is subject to Israel's fierce air assault of the past five days, with the IDF saying it has targeted at least a third of the surface-to-surface launchers that fire MRBMs, possibly further reducing Iran's ability to strike back at Israel. The depletion of its arsenal may compound Iran's desire to negotiate its way out of the conflict and also intensify the ferocity of the Israeli campaign in the coming days, analysts have said, as Israeli airpower finds itself almost unchallenged and Iran's nightly assaults on Israeli cities seem recently to have ebbed. Few reliable estimates for Iran's stockpile exist, although US CENTCOM's commander General Kenneth McKenzie said in 2023 that they had more than 3,000 missiles of different ranges. Behnam Ben Taleblu, a senior fellow at the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies, said likely 1,000 to 2,000 of these were medium-range, capable of spanning the 1,400 kilometers between Iran and Israel. He called the estimate 'at best a back-of-the-envelope calculation.' According to the IDF, Iran used 120 MRBMs in its April 13 attack last year on Israel, another 200 on October 1, and a total of 380 in the past five days. This tally would deplete its overall known arsenal by a total of 700. But whether it leaves Tehran with an existential crisis over its missile deterrence depends on both the size of its initial stockpile, and what damage Israel has done to Iran's military infrastructure, since it began striking across the country on Friday. Ben Taleblu suggested this might leave Iran with 1,300 MRBMs. Other estimates were more pessimistic. Dr. Eyal Pinko, a retired Israeli naval intelligence officer, now a senior research fellow at the Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies, said: 'Taking into consideration that they fired around 400 to 500 in the last four days and Israel destroyed some of the arsenal of what they had, I believe they have now 800 to 700.' The few glimpses of the damage done to Iran's air defenses and missile production from Israeli strikes on October 26 have revealed a significant toll. Admiral Tony Radakin, the UK's Chief of the Defence Staff, said in a December speech that 100 Israeli aircraft had fired as many missiles from as many miles away and 'took down nearly the entirety of Iran's air defense system. It has destroyed Iran's ability to produce ballistic missiles for a year.' But recently Israel has amplified the threat that Iran's missile production poses. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on Friday, as Israel launched its air campaign, that Iran had sped up its manufacture of ballistic missiles to 300 a month, which could leave them with 20,000 in six years. He did not provide evidence for the claim. Pinko said the 2024 strikes had 'destroyed the main facilities for manufacturing ballistic missiles motors' in Iran, creating severe limitations to the country's supply chain. Still, he notes that potential assistance from China in the coming months could boost production again. Iran would not want its arsenal of MRBMs to sink 'below four digits,' said Ben Taleblu. 'For the Islamic Republic, quantity has a quality of its own,' he said, adding that Iran excels 'in crisis management but is actually a poor conventional warfighter. And having to expend these ballistic missiles during a time of war, rather than a time of crisis precisely puts it in this bind.'
CNN
17-06-2025
- Politics
- CNN
One number could define the Iran-Israel conflict's outcome
The outcome of the defining conflict between Iran and Israel may depend on one simple number, which is at very best a rough estimate. Israeli military data and expert analysis say Iran has fired about 700 of its medium-range ballistic missiles (MRBM) at Israel over the past 14 months, leaving it with anything between 300 to 1,300 left in its stockpile. This remaining arsenal is subject to Israel's fierce air assault of the past five days, with the IDF saying it has targeted at least a third of the surface-to-surface launchers that fire MRBMs, possibly further reducing Iran's ability to strike back at Israel. The depletion of its arsenal may compound Iran's desire to negotiate its way out of the conflict and also intensify the ferocity of the Israeli campaign in the coming days, analysts have said, as Israeli airpower finds itself almost unchallenged and Iran's nightly assaults on Israeli cities seem recently to have ebbed. Few reliable estimates for Iran's stockpile exist, although US CENTCOM's commander General Kenneth McKenzie said in 2023 that they had more than 3,000 missiles of different ranges. Behnam Ben Taleblu, a senior fellow at the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies, said likely 1,000 to 2,000 of these were medium-range, capable of spanning the 1,400 kilometers between Iran and Israel. He called the estimate 'at best a back-of-the-envelope calculation.' According to the IDF, Iran used 120 MRBMs in its April 13 attack last year on Israel, another 200 on October 1, and a total of 380 in the past five days. This tally would deplete its overall known arsenal by a total of 700. But whether it leaves Tehran with an existential crisis over its missile deterrence depends on both the size of its initial stockpile, and what damage Israel has done to Iran's military infrastructure, since it began striking across the country on Friday. Ben Taleblu suggested this might leave Iran with 1,300 MRBMs. Other estimates were more pessimistic. Dr. Eyal Pinko, a retired Israeli naval intelligence officer, now a senior research fellow at the Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies, said: 'Taking into consideration that they fired around 400 to 500 in the last four days and Israel destroyed some of the arsenal of what they had, I believe they have now 800 to 700.' The few glimpses of the damage done to Iran's air defenses and missile production from Israeli strikes on October 26 have revealed a significant toll. Admiral Tony Radakin, the UK's Chief of the Defence Staff, said in a December speech that 100 Israeli aircraft had fired as many missiles from as many miles away and 'took down nearly the entirety of Iran's air defense system. It has destroyed Iran's ability to produce ballistic missiles for a year.' But recently Israel has amplified the threat that Iran's missile production poses. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on Friday, as Israel launched its air campaign, that Iran had sped up its manufacture of ballistic missiles to 300 a month, which could leave them with 20,000 in six years. He did not provide evidence for the claim. Pinko said the 2024 strikes had 'destroyed the main facilities for manufacturing ballistic missiles motors' in Iran, creating severe limitations to the country's supply chain. Still, he notes that potential assistance from China in the coming months could boost production again. Iran would not want its arsenal of MRBMs to sink 'below four digits,' said Ben Taleblu. 'For the Islamic Republic, quantity has a quality of its own,' he said, adding that Iran excels 'in crisis management but is actually a poor conventional warfighter. And having to expend these ballistic missiles during a time of war, rather than a time of crisis precisely puts it in this bind.'
AllAfrica
01-05-2025
- Business
- AllAfrica
US missiles fall short in long-range game with China
The US is arming up for a Pacific missile race but China may already be playing on a larger board. Last month, the US Senate Armed Services Committee (SASC) and the House Armed Services Committee (HASC) unveiled legislation stating that the US Army will receive significant funding boosts for medium-range ballistic missile (MRBM) programs under a new appropriations bill for fiscal year 2025. The legislation allocates US$175 million to expand production capacity for next-generation US Army MRBMs, aiming to enhance output and strengthen supplier bases. An additional $114 million is directed toward producing these next-generation systems, complementing the $300 million earmarked for the production of current Army MRBM platforms. Separately, $50 million has been set aside for the accelerated development of the US Army's next-generation medium-range anti-ship ballistic missiles (ASBM). The investments reflect a broad strategy to bolster the US Army's medium-range strike capabilities amid growing global missile threats. Funding for these programs is part of a broader munitions and supply chain resiliency initiative. The targeted outlays underscore the US Department of Defense's (DOD) increasing prioritization of flexible, survivable missile systems capable of addressing emerging threats across multiple theaters. Putting MRBM capabilities into perspective, the Center for Arms Control and Non-Proliferation describes the range of such weapons as falling between 1,000 and 3,000 kilometers, noting that these are 'theater-level' weapons. Fielded in the Pacific, such a weapon would represent a significant leap in capability over existing US systems such as the Typhon and Navy-Marine Expeditionary Ship Interdiction System (NMESIS), which have ranges of about 500 to 2,000 kilometers for the former firing Standard Missile-6 and Tomahawk cruise missiles, and 185 kilometers for the latter tactical anti-ship system. Further, ballistic missiles may be much more effective against hardened targets, such as aircraft shelters and missile silos, as they travel at hypersonic speeds during their terminal phase, giving them tremendous kinetic energy that allows them to damage such targets or cause them to collapse. Timothy Walton and Tom Shugart III mention in a January 2025 Hudson Institute report that since the early 2010s, China has doubled the number of its hardened aircraft shelters (HAS), of which it now has 3,000. Walton and Shugart say that China maintains 134 airbases within 1,800 kilometers of the Taiwan Strait, with 650 HAS and 2,000 non-hardened individual aircraft shelters (IAS). Meanwhile, Newsweek reported in December 2024 that China has 368 known missile silos, with 30 silos in its central region, 18 in the south, 90 in the north and 230 in the west. According to Ryan Snyder in a December 2024 article in the peer-reviewed Science & Global Security journal, those silos are estimated to be hardened to 1,500 pounds per square inch (psi), with older ones rated at 450 psi. Snyder says Chinese missile silos feature sophisticated shock isolation systems designed to attenuate horizontal missile movement within. As for the advantages of ASBMs over other types of anti-ship missiles, Andrew Erickson mentions in the 2013 book 'Chinese Anti-Ship Ballistic Missile (ASBM) Development: Drivers, Trajectories, and Strategic Implications' that such weapons can bypass traditional carrier defenses by striking from above at high speeds, effectively removing the carrier's air group—the primary line of defense—from the defensive equation. Erickson says this capability creates a severe targeting and interception challenge, as defending against missiles is inherently more difficult than defending against submarines or aircraft. He also notes that ASBMs exploit adversary naval vulnerabilities without requiring a direct match to those capabilities, offering potentially devastating, precise and hard-to-defend 'multi-axis' strikes. Tying up these developments into a larger operational picture, Thomas Mahnken and others mention in a 2019 Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments (CSBA) report that the US maritime pressure strategy aims to dissuade Chinese leaders from aggression in the Pacific. The writers note the strategy entails establishing highly-survivable precision-strike networks in the First Island Chain spanning Japan's southern island of Okinawa, Taiwan and the Philippines, backed by naval, air, electronic warfare and other capabilities. Mahnken and others say that these decentralized networks would function as an 'inside force' optimized to attack People's Liberation Army (PLA) forces from inside its anti-access/area-denial (A2/AD) bubble, while supported by 'outside forces' able to join the fight from further afield. They note that land-based anti-ship, anti-air and electronic warfare units along the First Island Chain would serve as the backbone of the inside-out operational concept—both anchoring frontline defense and freeing up US ships and aircraft for higher-priority missions such as striking surveillance nodes, reinforcing gaps and exploiting opportunities created by ground-based strikes. However, Grant Georgulis argues in a 2022 Journal of Indo-Pacific Affairs article that the First Island Chain is neither a survivable nor a viable operating area due to Chinese military capabilities such as long-range bombers, cruise missiles and theater ballistic missiles. Underscoring that threat, the US DOD 2024 China Military Power Report (CMPR) shows that the First and Second Island Chain spanning the Bonin Islands, Mariana Islands, Caroline Islands and Western New Guinea are entirely within the range of the PLA's long-range strike capabilities. While Georgulis recommends strengthening the Second Island Chain, China has steadily expanded its regional influence, aiming to deny US access to potential island bases and emplace dual-use infrastructure to support power projection beyond the First Island Chain. In line with that, Shijie Wang mentions in a March 2025 Jamestown Foundation article that China aims to overcome US-imposed containment in the Pacific, deepening ties with Pacific Island countries such as Nauru, Micronesia, Vanuatu, the Solomon Islands, Fiji and Samoa. Wang says China's recently signed 'Deepening Blue Economy Cooperation' memorandum with the Cook Islands has raised concerns about the potential dual-use infrastructure that could offer logistical support for the PLA Navy (PLAN) and expand its presence in the Third Island Chain, which spans the Aleutian Islands, American Samoa, Fiji, Hawaii and New Zealand. Underscoring China's increasing influence in the region, the Lowy Institute 2024 Pacific Aid Map mentions that while Australia remains the largest donor to Pacific Island countries, China has become the second-largest one, narrowly edging out the US while increasing its project commitments. While the US's development of MRBMs signifies it is doubling down on military containment of China in the First Island Chain, considering China's long-range strike capabilities and increasing influence among Pacific Island nations, such military-centric views risk underestimating the broader geopolitical landscape and China's rising regional entrenchment.
