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CNBC
2 days ago
- Business
- CNBC
Global stock markets' best and worst performers in a Trump-fueled 2025 — and where they're headed
Global stocks have surged to unprecedented levels in the first half of 2025, even as U.S. President Donald Trump's tariff salvos ripple across the globe. Here are the top winners and losers globally, as well as where they're headed. The MSCI All Country World Index, which measures the performance of over 2,500 stocks from both developed and emerging market equities, rose nearly 10% since the start of the year to hit a record high on July 4. European equities have emerged as the surprise stars of 2025, with Greece, Poland, Czech Republic and Spain leading the world in year-to-date gains, according to data collated by Morningstar for CNBC. In comparison, U.S. equities climbed comparatively lower in light of wavering confidence in American assets following Trump's erratic policymaking. "The global trade war that the U.S. started has been, and will continue to be, the catalyst for this ex-U.S. outperformance," said Peter Boockvar, chief investment officer at Bleakley Financial Group. Meanwhile, South Korea stands out as Asia's best performer amid the region's divergent performances, while Thailand, Turkey, Indonesia and Saudi Arabia languish at the bottom of the global rankings. Europe's renaissance Greece was the best-performing stock market year-to-date with gains of almost 60%, and market watchers say there's room for further surge. "Greece has been a standout in Eastern Europe for some time, supported by a recovering economy, banking sector reforms, and strong tourism," said Gabriel Sacks, Aberdeen's investment director of global emerging markets equities. The government's commitment to fiscal surpluses and early repayment of bailout loans have also lifted investor confidence. George Efstathopoulos, multi-asset portfolio manager at Fidelity International, expects Greek equities to continue outperforming, adding that Greek equities are heavy on banks, which have been beating expectations and guiding higher. European markets have been the standout performer globally in the first half of the year. Morningstar Michael Field Poland and the Czech Republic came in as second and third-best performers, gaining 56% and 52% year-to-date, respectively. Among the top ten performers, eight come from European markets. Aside from Greece, Poland and the Czech Republic, other names include Spain, Italy and Germany. Market watchers attribute Europe's rally to a cocktail of recovering growth, undervaluation, and capital rotating out of U.S. stocks earlier in the year as confidence in American assets gets increasingly tested. "European markets have been the standout performer globally in the first half of the year," said Morningstar's EMEA chief equity market strategist, Michael Field, attributing the inflow to the "sell America" movement earlier in the year, as well as an improving economic situation in Europe. The positive sentiment was echoed by Schwab Center for Financial Research's Michelle Gibley, who attributed Germany's pivot away from austerity as part of the reason for Europe's growth. Additionally, Trump's tariffs will continue to create conditions for European growth to ignite, market strategists polled by Natixis believe, who added that European defense stocks could continue to offer sizable returns. European defense stocks and bank sectors, which are key to the region's market performance, are also less exposed to tariff wars, said Mark Mobius, chairman of Mobius Emerging Opportunities Fund. Comparatively, Morningstar's U.S. stock market gauge rose by only around 7%, placing it further down the list in terms of its performance year-to-date. However, the exodus of American assets, which accelerated in April this year, has largely reversed its course with the major benchmarks, S & P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite, recently scaling record highs. Asia's diverging performance Among a mixed performance from Asian benchmarks, South Korea has staged an impressive comeback in 2025, posting a rally of over 30% year-to-date and taking the regional pole position. Despite domestic political turmoil and a 25% levy on exports to the U.S., the country's market outlook remains "looking reasonably good" as the tariff rate was already priced in, said Daniel Yoo, global strategist at Yuanta Securities. He added that there is a chance of a lower rate if the negotiation continues until August 1, which is when tariffs announced back in April will kick in, for countries that have not reached an agreement. The market also believes that Korean exporters may be able to withstand these levies better, as much of the price increase could be absorbed by U.S. consumers, said Manishi Raychaudhuri, chief executive officer at Emmer Capital Partners Limited. On a fundamental level, the election of a new president from the opposition earlier this year lifted investor sentiment and raised hopes for long-awaited corporate governance reforms, said Morningstar's senior equity analyst, Kai Wang, who noted the outperformance of key sectors, such as shipbuilding and advanced high-bandwidth memory chips that are increasingly used in AI processors. In June, opposition leader Lee Jae-myung won the nation's snap presidential election following months of upheaval sparked by former president Yoon Suk Yeol's failed attempt to impose martial law. China, which found itself in the Trump administrations' crosshairs for the larger part of this year, rose over 17% year-to-date. Looking forward to the rest of the year, HSBC sees catalysts from a potential appreciation of the yuan, improvements in earnings as well as policy support. However, the bank's Head of Research at HSBC Qianhai Securities, Steven Sun, said that the country's overall economic growth may continue to face pressure with no bazooka stimulus in sight. The Laggards: Thailand and Turkey At the bottom of the league table is Thailand. The Southeast Asian nation's stock market has slumped over 13% since the start of the year amid political turmoil, corruption scandals, economic woes and the drag of U.S. auto tariffs on its crucial auto parts export sector. "Thailand continues to struggle with a sluggish post-Covid recovery. Tourism remains below pre-pandemic levels, and political instability is weighing on consumer confidence," said Aberdeen's Sacks. Recently, the country's prime minister, Paetongtarn Shinawatra, was suspended from office by the constitutional court over a leaked phone conversation with former Cambodian leader Hun Sen, which led to a petition from 36 senators accusing her of dishonesty and breaching ethical standards. Turkey, whose stock markets are faring second last in performance, has economic headwinds that are equally pronounced, with political repression and runaway inflation spooking investors. "The arrest of Istanbul's mayor dashed nascent signs of optimism," said Sacks, who sees little chance of a sustained recovery without credible policy shifts. Mobius added that the country's currency collapse has also exacerbated the loss of investor confidence and capital flight. The Turkish lira depreciated almost 13% against the greenback since the start of the year. Rounding things off… That said, to put things into context — 2025 has been a fairly bullish year so far for equities, with only five stock markets posting losses year-to-date, according to Morningstar's equity gauges. "The worst of negative shock surprises may be behind us post Liberation day, " said Fidelity International's Efstathopoulos, who was referring to the name Trump gave to his sweeping tariff policy on April 2. While uncertainty is still high, he noted that a key market like China is stimulating its economy, and that the Federal Reserve has been on the path of easing, albeit slowly. "The most fiscal conservative government, Germany, has ended decades worth of fiscal austerity, all of which should be a positive for global growth," he said. Despite a slew of headwinds in the first half of the year, investment markets did well and displayed resilience, said OCBC's investment strategy managing director, Vasu Menon, though he added that he expects volatility to remain in the second half of the year as global uncertainties remain a fixture. "However, do not be surprised if investment markets continue to overcome headwinds and do well in the second half too – especially if concerns about trade, tariffs and inflation ease in the coming months," he said.
Business Times
22-06-2025
- Business
- Business Times
US dollar gains in early trading as world awaits Iran's response
[NEW YORK] The US dollar strengthened in early trading as investors sought havens in a move to shield against mounting geopolitical risks following the US strikes on Iran. The US currency was quoted stronger against the euro and most major foreign-exchange peers as markets opened for the week in Sydney. Traders are forecasting a drop in stocks and a jump in crude prices and gold as the bombing fuels demand for safety and angst about energy supply. 'This increased-risk environment will drive investors towards safe-haven assets,' said Ahmad Assiri, a market strategist at Pepperstone. In another early sign of risk aversion, Bitcoin slid below US$100,000 for the first time since May and Ether sank sharply as cryptocurrencies posted broad-based declines. Market reaction had been generally muted since Israel's initial assault on Iran earlier this month: Even after falling for the past two weeks, the S&P 500 is only about 3 per cent below its all-time high from February. And a Bloomberg gauge of the greenback is up less than 1 per cent since the Jun 13 attack. That's mostly because investors have expected the conflict to be localised, with no wider impact on the global economy. But moves stand to get bigger if Iran responds to the latest developments with steps such as blocking the Strait of Hormuz, a key passage for oil and gas shipments, or attacking US forces in the region, market watchers say. BT in your inbox Start and end each day with the latest news stories and analyses delivered straight to your inbox. Sign Up Sign Up 'It all depends on how the conflict develops, and things seem to be changing by the hour,' said Evgenia Molotova, a senior investment manager at Pictet Asset Management. 'The only way they take it seriously is if the Strait of Hormuz gets blocked because that will affect oil access.' Iran has vowed to impose 'everlasting consequences' for the bombing and said it reserves all options to defend its sovereignty. Meanwhile, Israel resumed its assaults, targeting military sites in Tehran and western Iran. 'This marks a turning point for markets,' said Charu Chanana, chief investment strategist at Saxo Markets in Singapore. The 'question is whether US assets can still command a safe-haven premium'. Still, the downside is likely to be limited because some market participants have been preparing for a worsening conflict. The MSCI All Country World Index has pulled back 1.5 per cent since Israel attacked Iran on Jun 13. Fund managers have reduced their stock holdings, shares are no longer overbought and hedging demand has increased, meaning a deep sell-off is less likely at these levels. The biggest market reaction since the start of the escalation has been in oil, with Brent futures jumping 11 per cent to US$77 a barrel. Traders are preparing for another surge in crude prices even as it's unclear where the crisis goes from here. That rise is expected to restart on Monday, after the US assault dramatically raised the stakes in a region that accounts for a third of global oil output. Morgan Stanley's oil analysts said a quick resolution would allow prices to fall back to US$60 per barrel, but continued tension could leave oil in the current range. 'Fundamental disruptions to the global supply of oil with a possible hit to shipments through the region would push oil prices a lot higher from here,' they said. Other analysts at the firm flagged that a sustained rise in oil could trigger a short squeeze in the US dollar, though underlying fundamentals 'still suggest fading this US dollar strength'. Already, the greenback has risen about 0.9 per cent since the conflict started, but it's a relatively small move given the US currency's traditional role as a haven in times of turmoil. The US currency has been battered in recent months by US President Donald Trump's trade and fiscal policies. 'The biggest trade around at the moment is short US dollar,' said Neil Birrell, chief investment officer at Premier Miton Investors. 'No one likes it. But traditionally it's the safe currency people go to, and it might just be that this turns around the fortunes of the US dollar.' The reaction was less straightforward in the US$29 trillion market for US Treasuries since the conflict began. Yields initially sank but the moves swiftly reversed over concern about a resurgence in inflation. US Treasuries are, overall, little changed since Jun 13, with the yield on 10-year notes rising since then by less than two basis points to close Friday at 4.38 per cent. BLOOMBERG
Economic Times
12-06-2025
- Business
- Economic Times
US stock futures, dollar dip on tariff threat
Tired of too many ads? Remove Ads Tired of too many ads? Remove Ads US equity-index futures dipped along with the dollar after President Donald Trump said he will set unilateral tariff rates within two weeks, dialing up trade tensions once again. Oil jumped on tensions in the Middle for the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100 fell 0.2% after Trump said he will send letters to countries setting tariff rates within the next two weeks. The dollar weakened against all of its Group-of-10 peers with the yen among the biggest gainers. Gold rose as much as 0.6% on demand for safe havens. Asian shares were mixed at the extended its biggest daily gain since October after the US ordered some staff to depart its Baghdad embassy and allowed military service members' families to leave the Middle East amid rising security risks. West Texas Intermediate rose as much as 1.7% to $69.29 after jumping 4.9% it's unclear if Trump will follow through with his pledge - the president has often set two-week deadlines for actions, only for them to come later or not at all. The comments come a day after Chinese and US officials struck a positive tone following their talks to dial down trade tensions. Amid US talking with countries including India and Japan to lower the levies, some investors see Trump's comments as an effort to ramp up urgency in talks.'Common sense would suggest this is another Trump strategy to increase urgency in trade negotiations,' said Rodrigo Catril, senior foreign exchange strategist at National Australia Bank Ltd. 'Trump wants trade deals and he wants them sooner rather than later.'Stocks have steadied in recent weeks and an index of global equities is hovering near a record after recovering from their lows in April when Trump announced the highest US levies in a century in an effort to rewrite global trade. The MSCI All Country World Index hit a record S&P 500 index fell 0.3% Wednesday and the Nasdaq 100 dropped 0.4% as big tech weighed on US benchmarks. Softer-than-expected US inflation supported the case for Federal Reserve rate cuts, spurring Treasuries higher. A solid $39 billion sale of 10-year debt also helped the bonds. The advance was led by shorter maturities, with two-year yields dropping below 4%.Earlier, Trump said a trade framework with China has been completed, with Beijing supplying rare earths and magnets up front and the US allowing Chinese students into its colleges and universities. The US and China will maintain tariffs at their current, lower levels following the two nations' agreement this week in London, Trump said US core inflation rose in May by less than forecast, suggesting companies are largely holding back on passing higher tariff costs through to string of below-forecast inflation readings adds to evidence that consumers have yet to feel the pinch of tariffs — perhaps because the most punitive levies have temporarily been on pause, or thanks to companies so far absorbing the extra costs or boosting inventory. However, if higher levies set in, shielding consumers from those costs will become more markets projected about two Fed reductions by the end of 2025 as traders boosted bets on a September cut to around 75%.'I don't see evidence in this early report of widespread price increases, but I do expect higher inflation this year as firms react to the tariffs,' said Ronald Temple, chief market strategist at Lazard Asset Management. 'Ultimately, companies will have to swallow some combination of price increases to pay for higher tariffs, cost cuts to offset increased import costs, and/or lower profit margins.
Time of India
12-06-2025
- Business
- Time of India
US stock futures, dollar dip on tariff threat
Tired of too many ads? Remove Ads Tired of too many ads? Remove Ads US equity-index futures dipped along with the dollar after President Donald Trump said he will set unilateral tariff rates within two weeks, dialing up trade tensions once again. Oil jumped on tensions in the Middle for the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100 fell 0.2% after Trump said he will send letters to countries setting tariff rates within the next two weeks. The dollar weakened against all of its Group-of-10 peers with the yen among the biggest gainers. Gold rose as much as 0.6% on demand for safe havens. Asian shares were mixed at the extended its biggest daily gain since October after the US ordered some staff to depart its Baghdad embassy and allowed military service members' families to leave the Middle East amid rising security risks. West Texas Intermediate rose as much as 1.7% to $69.29 after jumping 4.9% it's unclear if Trump will follow through with his pledge - the president has often set two-week deadlines for actions, only for them to come later or not at all. The comments come a day after Chinese and US officials struck a positive tone following their talks to dial down trade tensions. Amid US talking with countries including India and Japan to lower the levies, some investors see Trump's comments as an effort to ramp up urgency in talks.'Common sense would suggest this is another Trump strategy to increase urgency in trade negotiations,' said Rodrigo Catril, senior foreign exchange strategist at National Australia Bank Ltd. 'Trump wants trade deals and he wants them sooner rather than later.'Stocks have steadied in recent weeks and an index of global equities is hovering near a record after recovering from their lows in April when Trump announced the highest US levies in a century in an effort to rewrite global trade. The MSCI All Country World Index hit a record S&P 500 index fell 0.3% Wednesday and the Nasdaq 100 dropped 0.4% as big tech weighed on US benchmarks. Softer-than-expected US inflation supported the case for Federal Reserve rate cuts, spurring Treasuries higher. A solid $39 billion sale of 10-year debt also helped the bonds. The advance was led by shorter maturities, with two-year yields dropping below 4%.Earlier, Trump said a trade framework with China has been completed, with Beijing supplying rare earths and magnets up front and the US allowing Chinese students into its colleges and universities. The US and China will maintain tariffs at their current, lower levels following the two nations' agreement this week in London, Trump said US core inflation rose in May by less than forecast, suggesting companies are largely holding back on passing higher tariff costs through to string of below-forecast inflation readings adds to evidence that consumers have yet to feel the pinch of tariffs — perhaps because the most punitive levies have temporarily been on pause, or thanks to companies so far absorbing the extra costs or boosting inventory. However, if higher levies set in, shielding consumers from those costs will become more markets projected about two Fed reductions by the end of 2025 as traders boosted bets on a September cut to around 75%.'I don't see evidence in this early report of widespread price increases, but I do expect higher inflation this year as firms react to the tariffs,' said Ronald Temple, chief market strategist at Lazard Asset Management. 'Ultimately, companies will have to swallow some combination of price increases to pay for higher tariffs, cost cuts to offset increased import costs, and/or lower profit margins.
Yahoo
11-06-2025
- Automotive
- Yahoo
Fund manager who sold Tesla, just in time, says investors are overlooking these tech bargains
Two weeks ago, Wall Street veteran Gary Black sold his remaining Tesla shares, helping clients sidestep a selloff driven by a public fallout between Chief Executive Elon Musk and President Donald Trump. Black's unease with Tesla TSLA goes back a ways. When the managing partner of The Future Fund launched the One Global ETF FFND in August 2021, he snapped up Tesla, which quickly became the biggest position. By the second quarter of 2022, he began to trim as Musk started cutting electric-vehicle prices. Why Goldman Sachs says high-flying tech stocks may be headed for a tough stretch 'It might be another Apple or Microsoft': My wife invested $100K in one stock and it exploded 1,500%. Do we sell? U.S. debt-limit deadlock is making this favorite asset more scarce My friend, 83, wants to add me to his bank account to pay his bills. What could go wrong? One of our children has legal knowledge and lives far away, the other lacks financial savvy but lives nearby. Who should we appoint as executor? 'We didn't think that was a smart move. It turned out not to be a smart move, because they didn't get any incremental volume,' Black told MarketWatch in an interview on Monday. His Tesla haircuts continued, peppered by such worries as 'hype around unsupervised autonomy,' and when he finally exited it completely at $358 per share, valuation had gotten 'excessive.' Tesla shares need to be priced 'a lot less than they are today' for Black to repurchase. 'I don't want to call this stock uninvestable because at some price we would buy it back again, but with that level of volatility it almost makes the stock uninvestable at times,' he said, adding that Musk needs to 'keep his mouth closed and focus on the business.' Black, whose nearly 30-year career includes stints as CEO of Aegon Asset Management and Janus Capital, and his firm look after about $72 million in One Global, and the Long/Short ETF FFLS, roughly $49 million. One Global has returned 6.5% this year and 15% over three years, annualized, according to Morningstar, versus its MSCI All Country World Index benchmark returns of 7.3% and 14.3%, respectively. Black is now focused on what he sees as big tech bargains, such as Nvidia NVDA. The company's stock-picking process begins with 'ten long-term circular mega trends,' such as e-commerce, 24/7 information technology and, of course, artificial intelligence. 'We like the AI road map in front of [Nvidia] and they still can't make enough of their high-end AI chips. They continue to have extremely high demand for it, and they're still capacity constrained,' he said. Tesla, even with its recent decline, is still trading at 150 times forward earnings, while Nvidia sits at around 32 times, but is growing earnings, Black said. 'If you look at price-to-earnings relative to growth, which is how we think about the world, in a simplistic way, it's still reasonably cheap.' Meta META is also a big position. 'We like the growth we're seeing in Instagram and Facebook and WhatsApp. Again, the stock has done well, but it's still a very cheap stock,' trading at about 27 times earnings, he said. Then there's AMZN, and its vastly expanded offerings. 'You can buy prescription drugs over it now. You can buy tires, you can buy cars. It's become the go-to place if you want to buy anything,' and at around 35 times forward earnings, is now far less expensive, he said. He also flags DoorDash DASH. 'People don't have the time to make their own food anymore, so they order from the restaurants they love and [DoorDash] has gotten more and more restaurants on the platform, and as a result of that, the stock has done extremely well,' he said. Like Nvidia, DoorDash is reasonably priced, trading at 54 times forward earning, he said. His short bets in the Long/Short ETF, are about either poorly positioned companies or companies facing disruption. Those include Booking Holdings BKNG, which is in a 'very competitive business,' he said. 'We don't really see the proprietary technology to allow that to continue to gain share, so we decided that was a good short.' Fintech group Sofi Technologies SOFI is another. 'They've expanded their loans. and we just worry that they've grown too fast. and that's why it's a decent short we believe.' As the S&P 500 SPX continues to push past 6,000, Black says he's still bullish on the market overall, with expectations the Fed will likely to start cutting interest rates, though not as fast as Trump would like. 'I think what has happened because of the tariffs, the odds are you are going to have a first rate cut by September now,' he said. What else worries Black? He points to concerning 'pockets' of the market currently, such as the blockbuster Circle CRCL IPO, of which they didn't take part. 'We have stocks that are trading at very high multiples that aren't related to their earnings growth. We're always wary, especially in the growth space, that you've got speculative excess, and I think there are areas where people are just getting overly exuberant about prospects. And that's always negative,' said Black. Read: 'Big Money' turns bullish on stocks. Will that lead the S&P 500 to a 'melt up'? U.S. stocks SPX DJIA COMP are inching higher, while Treasury yields BX:TMUBMUSD10Y BX:TMUBMUSD02Y drop. Key asset performance Last 5d 1m YTD 1y S&P 500 6005.88 1.18% 2.77% 2.11% 12.03% Nasdaq Composite 19,591.24 1.81% 4.72% 1.45% 13.95% 10-year Treasury 4.456 -1.40 -1.70 -12.00 5.10 Gold 3349.9 -0.80% 2.93% 26.92% 43.53% Oil 65.56 3.50% 3.03% -8.78% -16.14% Data: MarketWatch. Treasury yields change expressed in basis points Need to Know starts early and is updated until the opening bell, but to get it delivered once to your email box. The emailed version will be sent out at about 7:30 a.m. Eastern. Trade talks between the U.S. and China continue in London on Tuesday. Tesla shares TSLA are tracking Monday's gains after more signs of a cooling feud between Musk and President Trump. J.M. Smucker stock SJM is down 7% after mixed results and a weak profit forecast from the food maker. Uber UBER said it's going to pilot self-driving cars in London. Tencent Music TME is reportedly buying China audio platform Ximalaya for $1.26 billion. The shares are rising. GameStop GME reports results after the close, and this analyst isn't that upbeat. A small-business optimism index was slightly more upbeat for May, with those expecting better business conditions at a historical high. Gold and the S&P 500 are chasing record highs at the same time. Here's why that's so rare. The White House marching orders that sparked the L.A. migrant crackdown. Mark Zuckerberg is handpicking a new 'superintelligence' AI team. Here's more evidence institutional investors are buying stocks again. This State Street risk-appetite index, based on the firm's $44 trillion of assets under custody and administration, shows 'long-term investor allocations to equities rose anew in May to levels last seen on the cusp of the Liberation Day announcement in early April,' said Dwyfor Evans, strategist at State Street Global Markets. While flows to stocks rose, investors continued to shun the dollar and U.S. Treasurys, Evans said. These were the most searched tickers on MarketWatch as of 6 a.m. Ticker Security name TSLA Tesla NVDA Nvidia GME GameStop PLTR Palantir Technologies PLUG Plug Power AAPL Apple TSM Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing AMD Advanced Micro Devices KLTO Klotho Neurosciences AMZN Amazon No joke. Comedian on why planes crash. Who you gonna call? Frustrated couple 'steal back' their own Jaguar. 'The situation is extreme': I'm 65 and leaving my estate to only one grandchild. Can the others contest my will? 'I prepaid our mom's rent for a year': My sister is a millionaire and never helps our mother. How do I cut her out of her will? I bought my mother-in-law a condo — and she took out a $30,000 car loan. Now she refuses to get a roommate. How do I make sure my son-in-law doesn't get his hands on my daughter's inheritance? My life partner is 18 years my senior. He wants to leave his $4.5 million fortune to me — not his two kids. Do we tell them? Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
