Latest news with #MSTMarquee
CNBC
8 hours ago
- Business
- CNBC
OPEC's next move: Market control or higher market share?
Saul Kavonic from MST Marquee discusses how OPEC+'s decision to either maintain market discipline or pursue market share could determine whether Brent crude stays supported above $70 or slips into a more bearish trajectory. He also weighs in on U.S. production, arguing that "drill, baby, drill" has failed with rig counts falling and supply likely to ease in the coming months.
AU Financial Review
03-07-2025
- Business
- AU Financial Review
How much would the ASX fall if CBA returned to a ‘normal' valuation?
Investors don't have to go far to find someone who reckons Commonwealth Bank shares are overpriced. Fund managers have steered clear. Analysts are unanimously recommending that their clients sell. But what would happen if the country's biggest lender was back to so-called normal valuations? MST Marquee strategist Hasan Tevfik has crunched the numbers and says the S&P/ASX 200 would fall 5 per cent.
Canada News.Net
23-06-2025
- Business
- Canada News.Net
Oil surge, market jitters expected after U.S. hits Iran facilities
NEW YORK CITY, New York: The U.S. bombing of Iranian nuclear sites has cast a shadow over global markets, with investors bracing for a sharp spike in oil prices and a potential flight to safety when trading resumes next week. Though Sunday saw a relatively muted response in Gulf equity markets, analysts and fund managers said the escalation marked a turning point, dragging the United States directly into the Israel-Iran conflict and raising the prospect of broader economic fallout. In a national address, U.S. President Donald Trump declared the strike a "spectacular military success," saying Iran's key nuclear enrichment facilities had been "completely and totally obliterated." Trump warned of further military action unless Tehran agrees to a peace deal. Iran responded sharply, vowing "everlasting consequences." Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said from Istanbul that Tehran would consider diplomacy only after retaliation. The broader market reaction will hinge on Iran's next steps. "Much depends on how Iran responds in the coming hours and days," said Saul Kavonic, energy analyst at MST Marquee. He warned that Tehran could strike U.S. interests or disrupt oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz — a vital corridor for global energy trade. "This could set us on a path towards $100 oil," he added. The Strait lies between Iran and Oman and is the main export route for Gulf oil producers like Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and Kuwait. A disruption there could have sweeping consequences for inflation and global supply chains. Even before the U.S. attack, Brent crude had climbed 18 per cent since June 10, reaching $79.04 — a five-month high. A further surge could complicate central banks' efforts to tame inflation and delay expected interest rate cuts. "I think oil will open higher," said Mark Spindel of Potomac River Capital, adding that the lack of a clear endgame would weigh on investor sentiment. "We're engaged. And uncertainty will blanket the markets." Retail investor confidence may already be wobbling. Ether, the second-largest cryptocurrency, dropped 8.5 per cent on Sunday, down 13 per cent since Israel's initial strikes on Iran on June 13. Despite the tensions, Gulf stock markets appeared largely unshaken. Benchmarks in Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and Kuwait were flat or slightly up. Israel's Tel Aviv 125 index touched a record high. Still, some see a path to resolution. Jamie Cox of Harris Financial Group said the attack might force Iran into negotiations. "With this demonstration of force... they've lost all of their leverage," he said. "They'll likely hit the escape button to a peace deal." History offers some reassurance: past Middle East flareups, like the 2003 Iraq war and the 2019 Saudi oil facility attack, triggered brief equity selloffs, but markets recovered within months.
Time of India
23-06-2025
- Business
- Time of India
Investors brace for oil price spike, rush to havens after US bombs Iran nuclear sites
A US attack on Iranian nuclear sites could push oil prices even higher and trigger a knee-jerk rush to safety, investors said, as they assessed how the latest escalation of tensions would ripple through the global economy. The reaction in Middle East stock markets , which trade on Sunday, suggested investors were assuming a benign outcome, even as Iran intensified its missile attacks on Israel in response to the sudden, deep US involvement in the conflict. US President Donald Trump called the attack "a spectacular military success" in a televised address to the nation and said Iran's "key nuclear enrichment facilities have been completely and totally obliterated". He said the US military could go after other targets in Iran if the country did not agree to peace. Iran said it reserves all options to defend itself, and warned of "everlasting consequences". Speaking in Istanbul, Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said Tehran was weighing its options for retaliation and would consider diplomacy only after carrying out its response. Investors said they expected US involvement would cause a stock market selloff and a possible bid for the dollar and other safe-haven assets when major markets reopen, but also said much uncertainty remained. "I think the markets are going to be initially alarmed, and I think oil will open higher," said Mark Spindel, chief investment officer at Potomac River Capital. "We don't have any damage assessment and that will take some time. Even though (Trump) has described this as 'done', we're engaged," Spindel said. "I think the uncertainty is going to blanket the markets, as now Americans everywhere are going to be exposed. It's going to raise uncertainty and volatility, particularly in oil," he added. One indicator of how markets will react in the coming week was the price of ether, the second-largest cryptocurrency and a gauge of retail investor sentiment. Ether was down 8.5 per cent on Sunday, taking losses since the first Israeli strikes on Iran on June 13 to 13 per cent. Most Gulf stock markets, however, seemed unconcerned by the early morning attacks, with the main indexes in Qatar, Saudi Arabia and Kuwait up slightly or flat. Israel's Tel Aviv main index was at an all-time high. Oil prices, inflation A key concern for markets centers around the potential impact of Middle East developments on oil prices and thus on inflation. Rising inflation could dampen consumer confidence and lessen the chance of near-term interest rate cuts. Saul Kavonic, a senior energy analyst at equity research firm MST Marquee in Sydney, said Iran could respond by targeting American interests in the Middle East, including Gulf oil infrastructure in places such as Iraq or harassing ship passages through the Strait of Hormuz. The Strait of Hormuz lies between Oman and Iran and is the primary export route for oil producers such as Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Iraq and Kuwait. "Much depends on how Iran responds in the coming hours and days, but this could set us on a path towards $100 oil if Iran respond as they have previously threatened to," Kavonic said. While global benchmark Brent crude futures have risen as much as 18 per cent since June 10, hitting a near five-month high of $79.04 on Thursday, the S&P 500 has been little changed, following an initial drop when Israel launched its attacks on Iran on June 13. Jamie Cox, managing partner at Harris Financial Group, said oil prices would likely spike before leveling off in a few days as the attacks could lead Iran to seek a peace deal with Israel and the United States. "With this demonstration of force and total annihilation of its nuclear capabilities, they've lost all of their leverage and will likely hit the escape button to a peace deal," Cox said. Economists warn that a dramatic rise in oil prices could damage a global economy already strained by Trump's tariffs. Still, any pullback in equities might be fleeting, history suggests. During past eruptions of Middle East tensions, including the 2003 Iraq invasion and the 2019 attacks on Saudi oil facilities, stocks initially languished but soon recovered to trade higher in the months ahead. On average, the S&P 500 slipped 0.3 per cent in the three weeks following the start of conflict, but was 2.3 per cent higher on average two months following the conflict, according to data from Wedbush Securities and CapIQ Pro. Dollar woes An escalation in the conflict could have mixed implications for the US dollar, which has tumbled this year amid worries over diminished US exceptionalism. In the event of US direct engagement in the Iran-Israel war, the dollar could initially benefit from a safety bid, analysts said. "Do we see a flight to safety? That would signal yields going lower and the dollar getting stronger," said Steve Sosnick, chief market strategist at IBKR in Greenwich, Connecticut. "It's hard to imagine stocks not reacting negatively and the question is how much." Jack McIntyre, portfolio manager for global fixed income at Brandywine Global Investment Management in Philadelphia, said it was uncertain whether US Treasuries would rally after the US attack, largely due to the market's hypersensitivity to inflation. "This could lead to regime change (which) ultimately could have a much bigger impact on the global economy if Iran shifts towards a more friendly, open economic regime," said McIntyre.
Time of India
23-06-2025
- Business
- Time of India
Investors brace for oil price spike, rush to havens after US bombs Iran nuclear sites
A US attack on Iranian nuclear sites could push oil prices even higher and trigger a knee-jerk rush to safety, investors said, as they assessed how the latest escalation of tensions would ripple through the global economy. The reaction in Middle East stock markets , which trade on Sunday, suggested investors were assuming a benign outcome, even as Iran intensified its missile attacks on Israel in response to the sudden, deep US involvement in the conflict. US President Donald Trump called the attack "a spectacular military success" in a televised address to the nation and said Iran's "key nuclear enrichment facilities have been completely and totally obliterated". He said the US military could go after other targets in Iran if the country did not agree to peace. Iran said it reserves all options to defend itself, and warned of "everlasting consequences". Speaking in Istanbul, Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said Tehran was weighing its options for retaliation and would consider diplomacy only after carrying out its response. Investors said they expected US involvement would cause a stock market selloff and a possible bid for the dollar and other safe-haven assets when major markets reopen, but also said much uncertainty remained. "I think the markets are going to be initially alarmed, and I think oil will open higher," said Mark Spindel, chief investment officer at Potomac River Capital. "We don't have any damage assessment and that will take some time. Even though (Trump) has described this as 'done', we're engaged," Spindel said. "I think the uncertainty is going to blanket the markets, as now Americans everywhere are going to be exposed. It's going to raise uncertainty and volatility, particularly in oil," he added. One indicator of how markets will react in the coming week was the price of ether, the second-largest cryptocurrency and a gauge of retail investor sentiment. Ether was down 8.5 per cent on Sunday, taking losses since the first Israeli strikes on Iran on June 13 to 13 per cent. Most Gulf stock markets, however, seemed unconcerned by the early morning attacks, with the main indexes in Qatar, Saudi Arabia and Kuwait up slightly or flat. Israel's Tel Aviv main index was at an all-time high. Oil prices, inflation A key concern for markets centers around the potential impact of Middle East developments on oil prices and thus on inflation. Rising inflation could dampen consumer confidence and lessen the chance of near-term interest rate cuts. Saul Kavonic, a senior energy analyst at equity research firm MST Marquee in Sydney, said Iran could respond by targeting American interests in the Middle East, including Gulf oil infrastructure in places such as Iraq or harassing ship passages through the Strait of Hormuz. The Strait of Hormuz lies between Oman and Iran and is the primary export route for oil producers such as Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Iraq and Kuwait. "Much depends on how Iran responds in the coming hours and days, but this could set us on a path towards $100 oil if Iran respond as they have previously threatened to," Kavonic said. While global benchmark Brent crude futures have risen as much as 18 per cent since June 10, hitting a near five-month high of $79.04 on Thursday, the S&P 500 has been little changed, following an initial drop when Israel launched its attacks on Iran on June 13. Jamie Cox, managing partner at Harris Financial Group, said oil prices would likely spike before leveling off in a few days as the attacks could lead Iran to seek a peace deal with Israel and the United States. "With this demonstration of force and total annihilation of its nuclear capabilities, they've lost all of their leverage and will likely hit the escape button to a peace deal," Cox said. Economists warn that a dramatic rise in oil prices could damage a global economy already strained by Trump's tariffs. Still, any pullback in equities might be fleeting, history suggests. During past eruptions of Middle East tensions, including the 2003 Iraq invasion and the 2019 attacks on Saudi oil facilities, stocks initially languished but soon recovered to trade higher in the months ahead. On average, the S&P 500 slipped 0.3 per cent in the three weeks following the start of conflict, but was 2.3 per cent higher on average two months following the conflict, according to data from Wedbush Securities and CapIQ Pro. Dollar woes An escalation in the conflict could have mixed implications for the US dollar, which has tumbled this year amid worries over diminished US exceptionalism. In the event of US direct engagement in the Iran-Israel war, the dollar could initially benefit from a safety bid, analysts said. "Do we see a flight to safety? That would signal yields going lower and the dollar getting stronger," said Steve Sosnick, chief market strategist at IBKR in Greenwich, Connecticut. "It's hard to imagine stocks not reacting negatively and the question is how much." Jack McIntyre, portfolio manager for global fixed income at Brandywine Global Investment Management in Philadelphia, said it was uncertain whether US Treasuries would rally after the US attack, largely due to the market's hypersensitivity to inflation. "This could lead to regime change (which) ultimately could have a much bigger impact on the global economy if Iran shifts towards a more friendly, open economic regime," said McIntyre.
