Latest news with #MacroBusiness
Daily Mail
2 days ago
- Business
- Daily Mail
The big problem with rising immigration that hurts every Australian
Australia's high immigration has been likened to a Ponzi scheme as a new report reveals record international student numbers are worsening the housing crisis. Digital Finance Analytics boss Martin North says governments rely too much on bringing more people into Australia to make the economy look bigger, even though it means each person is actually worse off. 'When things are looking at bit shaky, what you try and do is pull the levers, the migration lever is an obvious lever at one level because you can do it relatively quickly and the number goes up even if the GDP per capita doesn't go up,' he said. 'To my mind, though, migration is a Ponzi scheme and migration is part of the quantitative growth.' Like a pyramid scheme, a Ponzi scheme benefits those at the top but leaves everyone else worse off. Mr North, a banking expert, said high immigration was like printing money during Covid - it makes things look better at first, but can cause bigger problems like inflation later. MacroBusiness economist Leith van Onselen said bringing in too many migrants was even worse than the financial bubbles created by the money-printing policies used during the pandemic. 'That blows financial bubbles but it doesn't affect your traffic congestion, it doesn't force you to live in a shoe box apartment because you can't afford a house,' he said. 'There's too many people competing with you for a house. It doesn't turn your cities into high-rise, shoebox metropolises.' A new Reserve Bank report has noted international student numbers were still at record highs, and putting pressure on the housing market during a time of high construction costs. In the year to April, 794,113 international students were enrolled in Australia. 'The number of international students onshore is still near record highs, and student visa arrivals have exceeded departures in recent months, suggesting the number of students onshore is growing,' it said. 'In theory, in the face of a relatively fixed supply of housing in the short term, we would expect an increase in international students to put upward pressure on rental demand and rents (all else equal), in the same way that any kind of increase in the renting population would impact demand. 'Capacity constraints, high costs in the construction sector and low levels of building approvals relative to the population may mean the housing supply response could be slower to materialise compared with in the past.' The RBA report, by economists Madeleine McCowage, Harry Stinson and Matthew Fink, also noted international students were more likely to work in the black economy. 'Temporary migrants are much more likely to be paid below-minimum wages, meaning cash-in-hand work may be prevalent,' it said. In the year to May, 447,620 migrants arrived in Australia on a net basis, which was higher than the 335,000 intake for 2024-25 forecast by Treasury in the pre-election March Budget but below the record-high intake of 548,800 in late 2023. With the permanent intake capped at 185,000 for 2024-25, international students make up the majority of permanent and long-term arrivals in Australia. 'International students were an important driver of net overseas migration during this period, accounting for around half of Australia's total net overseas migration,' the RBA report said. AMP chief economist Shane Oliver said high immigration levels were causing Australia's productivity crisis, with the economy suffering a per capita recession from early 2023 until the September quarter of 2024. 'We have partly made up for poor productivity growth by faster population growth, but this does not address living standards per person,' he said. 'Likewise, the slump in productivity has been masked by strong national commodity earnings but we cannot rely on this indefinitely. 'A surging population over the last 20 years with inadequate infrastructure and housing supply has led to urban congestion and poor housing affordability which contribute to poor productivity growth – notably via increased transport costs and speculative activity around housing diverting resources from more productive uses.' Mr van Onselen said international students were coming to Australia hoping for a pathway to permanent residency or citizenship, with universities benefiting from having overseas students willing to pay fees upfront. 'The whole idea is to encourage a bunch of students, primarily from south Asia, who tend to come to places like Australia and New Zealand, Canada etc for work rights and permanent residency instead of studying,' he said. 'That's their primary goal. They want to attract those people. 'So, they want to expand work rights for international students from 20 hours a week to 25 and effectively turn student visas into de facto low-skilled work visas and residency visas.' International students on a visa can work 48 hours a fortnight if they are studying a Masters degree, with no more than 30 hours of work allowed in the second and third weeks of a month.
Daily Mail
3 days ago
- Business
- Daily Mail
How Australia is committing 'suicide' under Anthony Albanese and Chris Bowen - and you're paying for their huge mistake: 'I fear literally for the future of the country'
Australia's net zero by 2050 target has been likened to 'energy suicide' as the United Nations calls on Anthony Albanese to 'go big' on reducing carbon emissions. MacroBusiness chief economist Leith van Onselen made the call as the UN's climate change executive secretary, Simon Stiell, visited Sydney and Canberra, urging Australia to implement a more ambitious 2035 climate target. 'Unfortunately, Australia is committing the worst case of energy suicide, the most unnecessary self-sabotage that I've ever seen in my life,' Mr van Onselen said. 'Energy now is the number one existential threat, I think, to Australia. 'I fear literally for the future of the country if we keep going down this road.' Mr van Onselen questioned Labor's goal of renewable energy making up 82 per cent of Australia's energy mix by 2030, as part of a plan to slash emissions by 43 per cent. 'That's impossible,' he said. 'To get to 82 per cent renewable energy, we have to shut down our baseload coal generators that have provided stable, reliable, and very cheap energy for generations. 'Growing up, the electricity bill was nothing. It was never an issue. Now it costs an absolute arm and a leg and is getting worse. You have to ask yourself, why are we doing this when we export seven times more coal than we burn ourselves, and four times more gas than we use ourselves?' He made the call as the UN's climate change executive secretary Simon Stiell visited Sydney and Canberra, calling on Australia to implement a more ambitious 2035 climate target. 'So don't settle for what's easy. Bog standard is beneath you. Go for what's smart by going big,' he said. 'Go for what will build lasting wealth and national security. Go for what will change the game and stand the test of time.' The Coalition, which signed Australia up to a net zero by 2050 target in 2021, faces a potential split on the issue, with former deputy prime minister Barnaby Joyce on Monday moving a parliamentary motion to repeal that policy. Australia only a small emitter Mr van Onselen said data comparing Australia's carbon emissions with other countries shows Australia is negligible, making up only about one per cent of global emissions. Australia's share has fallen from 1.5 per cent in 2000 to 1.1 per cent today, while China now accounts for 31.5 per cent and India's emissions continue to surge. 'China and India have about 1,400 coal-fired generators. Australia has 18. They are expanding their coal plants every year, while we're shutting ours down. China burns 30 per cent more coal than the rest of the world combined,' he said. 'Australia should be an energy superpower with the lowest energy prices in the world, but instead, we've given ourselves the highest. We've made everything more expensive, from housing construction to manufacturing, because energy is the bedrock of the economy.' Mr van Onselen said Australia needed to seriously consider opening up more coal power plants and considering nuclear. Nuclear ban Australia also has a ban on nuclear power despite being home to a third of the world's uranium reserves, as other nations like the UK and Canada look at building new reactors. 'We've also banned even looking at nuclear despite holding about 30 per cent of the world's uranium reserves,' he said. 'We could be totally energy self-sufficient, but we've banned going down that road while the UK, Canada, and the rest of the world are embracing it. 'I argue, why not just burn the coal that we've got - which we sell seven times more than we use domestically? 'While you're doing that, build some nuclear generators, which are the most environmentally friendly option out of the lot. 'They're cheap to run over the long term and they last a hell of a long time. They have the smallest environmental footprint and they are zero emission.' Former Opposition Leader Peter Dutton was defeated at the May election with a plan to build seven nuclear reactors, as part of a net zero by 2050 plan. The Coalition had also proposed repealing a 1998 ban on the building of nuclear power plants, which at the time was a political trade-off John Howard's Coalition government had secured with the Greens in the Senate to build a new nuclear medicines reactor the Lucas Heights in Sydney. Mr van Onselen warned Australia risks mass business failures if Australia continued down the net-zero route. 'If we keep going down this road and keep driving up the cost of energy, every single link in the supply chain - no matter what business you're in - is going to become more expensive, because energy is the bedrock of the economy,' he said. 'If you want a modern economy and want to progress, you've got to use more energy. I'm sorry, that's the way it is. 'China is getting more powerful and richer by using more energy. It's burning more coal, going down the nuclear road, and building out renewables as well. But regardless, it's using more of all types of energy. Every year, its energy use just rockets. Same with India. They recognize that the key to economic progress is using more energy. 'And for us to have some of the biggest reserves of hydrocarbons in the world and not use them ourselves - but be happy to sell them to others - is just moronic. We should be using this stuff ourselves first, and then sell the rest.' He also warned of the growing risks from Australia's reliance on renewables. 'If you rely on wind and solar backed up by batteries and pumped hydro, the facts are clear: energy costs do not go down. They go up. The higher the share of renewables, the higher the cost of energy. This is largely because of transmission costs. You need to build an enormous web of transmission lines and vastly more infrastructure than the nameplate capacity suggests. 'Wind turbines and batteries also need to be replaced roughly every 20 years, which means you're constantly turning over infrastructure. This isn't environmentally friendly, nor is it cheap. The land use and resource consumption are massive, and the cost burden is astronomical. 'If we keep doubling down on this renewables-only approach, we'll keep driving up energy costs, further de-industrializing the country and shrinking our manufacturing base. Eventually, the only industries left will be non-tradable ones (like bricks, which are too heavy and expensive to import) or industries kept alive by government subsidies. That's not sustainable for a strong economy.' Australia has also become a net importer of liquefied natural gas, despite its abundant reserves, as the net zero by 2050 target discourages gas exploration for domestic use. 'We export four times more gas than we use ourselves,' Mr van Onselen said. He warned that the cost of energy in Australia is now so high that 'it's effectively impossible for businesses to grow and develop here'. 'We seem to be shunting ourselves into a bit of a cul-de-sac. 'We've already shut down a large number of coal generators, yet we're still heavily reliant on the ones we have left. They're old, under pressure, and being run at full capacity - effectively redlined - to cover the shortfalls from intermittent renewables. At some point, one of these generators will fail, causing a catastrophic blackout.' Coal demonised Mr van Onselen slammed Climate Change and Energy Minister Chris Bowen for demonising coal. 'When [blackout] happens, politicians like Chris Bowen and the 'net zero heroes' will rush to blame coal as unreliable, rather than acknowledging the real problem: the wind wasn't blowing, the sun wasn't shining, and the renewables failed to deliver when needed,' he said. 'They'll use the crisis as an excuse to shut down even more coal generation and force through more renewables, even though renewables were the root cause of the failure.' Jobs at risk The conservative Institute of Public Affairs has released new research showing 631,800 jobs are at risk as a result of net zero, mainly in Liberal and National electorates. IPA research fellow Cian Hussey noted net zero has had bipartisan support since October 2021 when former Liberal prime minister Scott Morrison committed Australia to eliminating carbon emissions from energy use in less than three decades' time. 'It should not be forgotten that it was the Coalition under Scott Morrison, without debate, that signed Australia up to net zero, yet it has been electoral poison for them,' he said. 'By retaining its commitment to net zero, the Coalition is unable to highlight the significant costs the policy is imposing on Australians and the significant costs it will impose into the future. In effect, it is running cover for Labor on a policy it covets.' Labor under Anthony Albanese has taken this policy even further, pushing up average power prices to level beyond $400 a quarter, crippling small business and hurting the poor despite Australia having an abundance of coal, natural gas and uranium. Joyce and another former Nationals leader Michael McCormack are joining political forces to repeal net zero, potentially undermining the authority of new Liberal Opposition Leader Sussan Ley.
Scoop
17-07-2025
- Business
- Scoop
Social Crisis Deepening In New Zealand
Amid a sharp downturn gripping the New Zealand economy and escalating attacks by the far-right National Party-led government on the jobs and living standards of the working class, a bitter social crisis is unfolding. Growing discontent was highlighted last week with Statistics NZ revealing that a net 30,000 citizens quit New Zealand last year to move to Australia, the largest single year exodus since 2012. Tens of thousands more departed for other countries. In April and May 2025, more people left permanently than entered. The economy has fallen back into recessionary territory over the last three months. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth was a meagre 0.8 percent in the March 2025 quarter on the back of a contraction of 1.1 percent over the full year. MacroBusiness in June described New Zealand as an 'economic basket case.' The Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), a key measure of forthcoming business activity, now ranks among the worst in the developed world. The working class is bearing the brunt of the downturn with a sharp drop in per capita national income. One statistician, posting on X under the handle MusicalChairs, noted that 'we are having a second winter of misery in the labour market. The year-on-year trend is basically stuck at 100 job losses per day. It's grim out there.' In the first quarter of 2025, unemployment hit 5.1 percent, up from 3.4 percent in 2023, with the number of people in full-time jobs falling by 45,000 in the three months. Jobseeker Support claims for unemployed 18–24-year-olds have increased by 41 percent over two years. The latest IMF World Economic Outlook predicts NZ will have the highest rate of joblessness of all Asia-Pacific countries until 2027, surpassing COVID-19 pandemic peaks. The percentage of people unemployed for between 6 months to 1year was 12.4 percent in 2023. It is now 23.9 percent, nearly double. Underemployment has risen by 26 percent in two years. Over a fifth of people working part-time, about 127,000, are struggling to find more work, despite looking for as long as five years in some cases. Wages have taken a sharp hit. According to the Labour Cost Index 48 percent of workers got a pay rise below inflation (i.e. less than 2 percent) last year. Annual increases in weekly earnings to June were a meagre $22 for workers in the lowest quartile, $42 in the median quartile and $69 in the upper quartile. The government is deliberately driving down wages for the lowest paid. The minimum wage increased in April by just 35 cents per hour to $23.50, a 1.5 percent increase, while inflation is presently running at 2.5 percent. In a brutal move, Finance Minister Nicola Willis expunged a requirement that government contractors pay at least the 'Living Wage,' currently $28.95 per hour, for low-paid cleaning, catering and security guard services. Living costs are soaring. A study by the Australian Edith Cowan University last year compared prices of a basket of supermarket staples across four countries including NZ, Australia, Ireland and the UK. New Zealand had by far the most expensive groceries, ranging from $A342 to $A409, while Australia's were second at between $A324 and $A332. Bills for rates, insurance, energy and transport have all skyrocketed. Household savings dropped by $392 million to negative $1.6 billion in the March 2025 quarter, as household spending increased more than disposable incomes. In a sign of growing desperation, record numbers of workers are making early withdrawals from their KiwiSaver retirement savings. In May, a monthly high of 9,420 people made withdrawals totaling $234,192,710 because of financial hardship, according to Inland Revenue. Housing is an acute issue. A recent television episode of 'The Hui,' a Māori-orientated journalism program, detailed an explosion of homelessness, not only in traditional working-class areas such as Rotorua and South Auckland, but in the more affluent suburbs of Auckland's North Shore. Matarora Smith, who runs a breakfast program for about 60 homeless people in south Auckland, bluntly told 'The Hui,' 'One of the street whānau (family) have passed away in South Auckland—froze to death.' Jan Rutledge, of De Paul House, which provides support services in north Auckland, had seen a noticeable increase in homelessness. 'We had a family come to us with two kids, mum and dad. They were staying in Glenfield Mall's car park,' she said, opposite the local Work and Income office. Rutledge said: 'Now that we've got no-cause evictions, a landlord can just come in and say, 'that's it.' We're seeing quite a lot of that.' Head of the Lifewise charity, Haehaetu Barrett, told 'The Hui' that homelessness is a 'national crisis.' The government has drastically reduced the number of families in emergency housing even as the demand for public rentals escalates. The public housing agency Kāinga Ora rejected 1,569 families' applications for emergency accommodation in the first three months of 2025 alone. As of May, 19,089 people were waiting for a Kāinga Ora state home. Almost half were Māori. On average, people were on the waitlist for 233 days. Barrett denied recent allegations by Rotorua Mayor Tania Tapsell and Police Minister Mark Mitchell that rough sleeping was a 'lifestyle choice' among homeless people who they alleged spent what little money they had on drugs. Barrett noted that the closing of emergency motel accommodation, which began under the previous Labour government, is forcing more families out of secure shelter. The last of the motels in Rotorua will be shut down by the end of the year, which Barrett said was 'way too quick.' She declared; 'They move them, but to where? And what support is in place?' Government promises to tackle the housing supply have come to nothing. In Wellington, Kāinga Ora is selling off two pieces of real estate it had pledged to turn into 280 homes. The agency has just 42 new units in the pipeline for the capital city, while the social housing register there exceeds 640 families. Kāinga Ora announced that it will halt over 200 housing developments nationwide and sell a fifth of the vacant land it owns, to ensure its housing projects 'make commercial sense.' In February, Housing Minister Chris Bishop unveiled a 'turnaround plan' for the embattled agency. It included selling off valuable state properties in wealthy areas, purportedly to fund homes in working class suburbs. The scheme excludes state tenants from living in 'desirable' suburbs while opening the door to privatisation. According to the March 2025 Quarterly Economic Monitor from Infometrics, general rental affordability is worsening as tenants spend more of their household income on rent. Average rent as a percentage of household income is running at 22.1 percent, up from 21.9 percent a year ago and well above the average 10-year low of 20.2 percent. Homeowners continue to suffer from high interest rates on their mortgages. On July 9 the Reserve Bank (RBNZ) 'paused' its 11-month rate-cutting programme and held the official cash rate (OCR) unchanged at 3.25 percent, down from 5.5 percent last August, declaring it needed 'more clarity' on inflation, the economy, and US trade policy. The cost-of-living crisis confronting the working class is underpinned by a sharp escalation in social inequality. The country's Rich List revealed last month that 119 individuals and families, including 18 billionaires, control a record $NZ102.1 billion, up from $95.55 billion in 2024 and equivalent to more than 40 percent of annual GDP. Their wealth derives almost entirely from parasitic activities such as financial investment and property speculation. There is also a vast class divide among Māori. While ordinary Māori, who make up 18 percent of the population, remain among the most oppressed sections of the working class, tribal capitalist businesses are flourishing. In March, a report by the Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment and Te Puni Kōkiri showed the 'Māori economy' grew from $17 billion in 2018 to $32 billion in 2023. The powerful Tainui tribe, which settled land grievances with the government in 1995 for $170 million, now boasts a balance sheet of $1.9 billion.
Sky News AU
27-05-2025
- Business
- Sky News AU
Australia ‘bringing in way more people' contributing to housing crisis
MacroBusiness Chief Economist Leith Van Onselen claims the Albanese government's promise to help first-home buyers buy their first home with a 5 per cent deposit will 'not' help the housing crisis in Australia. 'It's simply going to increase borrowing capacity … it's going to lift overall demand on prices,' Mr Van Onselen told Sky News host Andrew Bolt. 'We're going to end up with more expensive housing than ever and larger mortgages. 'We're just going to end up with higher prices and more household debt, without solving the underlying problem is that we are bringing in way more people than we can ever supply homes for.'
Sky News AU
27-05-2025
- Business
- Sky News AU
Immigration in Australia becoming leading cause in ‘poorer quality hosing'
MacroBusiness Chief Economist Leith Van Onselen claims the Albanese government 'maintain' high rates of immigration in Australia. 'Unfortunately for us, the ordinary Australians … it makes our lives more difficult,' Mr Van Onselen told Sky News host Andrew Bolt. 'We have more traffic congestion; we've got poorer quality housing that becomes more expensive. 'Ultimately, the economy ends up with lower productivity.'
