Latest news with #Mahaney
Business Insider
10-06-2025
- Business
- Business Insider
A top Wall Street analyst used ChatGPT and Gemini to assess Google risks. He came away impressed.
And not just any AI: Evercore ISI's top tech analyst Mark Mahaney tapped Google's own Gemini AI chatbot, along with OpenAI's ChatGPT, to assess what could happen next in the Department of Justice's big case against Google's Search business. With Judge Amit Mehta expected to rule later this summer, Mahaney published a research note that offers a rare look at how investors use generative AI as a strategic analysis tool for watching one of the most consequential antitrust cases of the 21st century. AI-powered legal analysis on Wall Street Mahaney and his team gave OpenAI's o3 and Gemini 2.5 Pro transcripts from the final day of court proceedings — more than eight hours of closing arguments — and asked the chatbots two key questions: What were the main takeaways? And what remedies will Judge Mehta most likely impose? The result? "Pretty darn impressive," Mahaney wrote. Within 17 seconds, the models generated concise, reasoned summaries and remedy predictions. The output from both AI tools aligned closely with the conclusions of legal experts consulted by Evercore, suggesting the technology may be ready for prime time as a research aid, even in complex regulatory situations, Mahaney wrote. "GenAI reasoning may become a table-stakes capability... and certainly can help achieve improved productivity goals for users, enterprises, consumers and Wall Street Internet Analysts!," he wrote. I emailed to ask Mahaney whether he's trying to put himself out of a job. Mahaney replied, "". AI's predictions for Google Both ChatGPT and Gemini forecast that Judge Mehta will likely impose a slate of tough behavioral remedies and stop short of ordering a huge structural breakup of Google's empire. Their projected outcomes included: A highly probable ban on default Search payments (ChatGPT was more sure of this, while Gemini thought a complete, permanent ban was unlikely. Shocker!) It's unlikely that Google will be forced to sell its Chrome browser business, though Judge Mehta might keep this in reserve if other remedies don't spark more competition. (Both chatbots aligned on this prediction pretty closely.) Likely contingent limits on general Search revenue-share payments. Possible contingent requirements on data sharing. ChatGPT's detailed reasoning suggested Judge Mehta is interested in avoiding collateral damage to the tech ecosystem while still targeting the "monopoly flywheel" Google uses to maintain dominance. Gemini's forecast echoed this logic, emphasizing Mehta's focus on balancing enforcement with market disruption risk and the avoidance of a "massive structural breakup." Why this matters for Google and Wall Street Mahaney's use of AI wasn't about replacing expert human judgment, but rather augmenting it. He and his team had already reviewed transcripts and interviewed legal experts. However, the speed and coherence with which ChatGPT and Gemini processed complex legal dialogue and arrived at similar conclusions gave Mahaney confidence that GenAI tools can assist in forecasting high-stakes regulatory events. The case, which stems from Google's multibillion-dollar payments to companies like Apple to maintain default status on browsers and smartphones, could upend how the $2 trillion internet giant competes in search and beyond. For investors, the insight that AI models can accurately mirror expert expectations in such nuanced legal territory may prove as significant as the case itself. As Judge Mehta finalizes his ruling, the courtroom might still be human, but Wall Street's analysis of it is increasingly AI-assisted. Welcome to the era of algorithmic legal foresight.
Business Insider
10-06-2025
- Business
- Business Insider
A top Wall Street analyst used ChatGPT and Gemini to assess Google risks. He came away impressed.
In a striking twist to a major legal showdown between the US government and one of the world's most powerful tech companies, Wall Street analysts aren't just turning to lawyers — they're consulting artificial intelligence. And not just any AI: Evercore ISI's top tech analyst Mark Mahaney tapped Google's own Gemini AI chatbot, along with OpenAI's ChatGPT, to assess what could happen next in the Department of Justice's big case against Google's Search business. With Judge Amit Mehta expected to rule later this summer, Mahaney published a research note that offers a rare look at how investors use generative AI as a strategic analysis tool for watching one of the most consequential antitrust cases of the 21st century. AI-powered legal analysis on Wall Street Mahaney and his team gave OpenAI's o3 and Gemini 2.5 Pro transcripts from the final day of court proceedings — more than eight hours of closing arguments — and asked the chatbots two key questions: What were the main takeaways? And what remedies will Judge Mehta most likely impose? The result? "Pretty darn impressive," Mahaney wrote. Within 17 seconds, the models generated concise, reasoned summaries and remedy predictions. The output from both AI tools aligned closely with the conclusions of legal experts consulted by Evercore, suggesting the technology may be ready for prime time as a research aid, even in complex regulatory situations, Mahaney wrote. "GenAI reasoning may become a table-stakes capability... and certainly can help achieve improved productivity goals for users, enterprises, consumers and Wall Street Internet Analysts!," he wrote. I emailed to ask Mahaney whether he's trying to put himself out of a job. Mahaney replied, "😊". AI's predictions for Google Both ChatGPT and Gemini forecast that Judge Mehta will likely impose a slate of tough behavioral remedies and stop short of ordering a huge structural breakup of Google's empire. Their projected outcomes included: A highly probable ban on default Search payments (ChatGPT was more sure of this, while Gemini thought a complete, permanent ban was unlikely. Shocker!) It's unlikely that Google will be forced to sell its Chrome browser business, though Judge Mehta might keep this in reserve if other remedies don't spark more competition. (Both chatbots aligned on this prediction pretty closely.) Likely contingent limits on general Search revenue-share payments. Possible contingent requirements on data sharing. ChatGPT's detailed reasoning suggested Judge Mehta is interested in avoiding collateral damage to the tech ecosystem while still targeting the "monopoly flywheel" Google uses to maintain dominance. Gemini's forecast echoed this logic, emphasizing Mehta's focus on balancing enforcement with market disruption risk and the avoidance of a "massive structural breakup." Why this matters for Google and Wall Street Mahaney's use of AI wasn't about replacing expert human judgment, but rather augmenting it. He and his team had already reviewed transcripts and interviewed legal experts. However, the speed and coherence with which ChatGPT and Gemini processed complex legal dialogue and arrived at similar conclusions gave Mahaney confidence that GenAI tools can assist in forecasting high-stakes regulatory events. The case, which stems from Google's multibillion-dollar payments to companies like Apple to maintain default status on browsers and smartphones, could upend how the $2 trillion internet giant competes in search and beyond. For investors, the insight that AI models can accurately mirror expert expectations in such nuanced legal territory may prove as significant as the case itself. As Judge Mehta finalizes his ruling, the courtroom might still be human, but Wall Street's analysis of it is increasingly AI-assisted. Welcome to the era of algorithmic legal foresight.
Business Insider
04-06-2025
- Business
- Business Insider
Evercore ISI Remains a Buy on Alphabet Class A (GOOGL)
Evercore ISI analyst Mark Mahaney maintained a Buy rating on Alphabet Class A (GOOGL – Research Report) yesterday and set a price target of $205.00. The company's shares closed yesterday at $166.18. Confident Investing Starts Here: Easily unpack a company's performance with TipRanks' new KPI Data for smart investment decisions Receive undervalued, market resilient stocks right to your inbox with TipRanks' Smart Value Newsletter According to TipRanks, Mahaney is a 5-star analyst with an average return of 15.9% and a 58.81% success rate. Mahaney covers the Communication Services sector, focusing on stocks such as Alphabet Class A, Netflix, and DoorDash. In addition to Evercore ISI, Alphabet Class A also received a Buy from Truist Financial's Youssef Squali in a report issued yesterday. However, on May 27, Cantor Fitzgerald reiterated a Hold rating on Alphabet Class A (NASDAQ: GOOGL). Based on Alphabet Class A's latest earnings release for the quarter ending March 31, the company reported a quarterly revenue of $90.23 billion and a net profit of $34.54 billion. In comparison, last year the company earned a revenue of $80.54 billion and had a net profit of $23.66 billion
CNBC
30-05-2025
- Business
- CNBC
Evercore ISI hikes Netflix price target, says stock can march to new heights thanks to live events
Netflix can continue to march higher even as the stock already trades at record levels, according to Evercore ISI. Analyst Mark Mahaney maintained his outperform rating on the streaming giant and raised his price target by $200 to $1,350, which suggests nearly 14% potential upside ahead. Shares hit an all-time high this week, bringing their year-to-date gains to nearly 32%. Mahaney's bullish sentiment on Netflix comes after Evercore ISI ran its 54th quarterly U.S. survey and 15th annual UK survey, which received roughly 1,300 respondents in each market. From the survey results, Mahaney observed live events to be a key driver for Netflix. A record high of 53% of U.S. respondents said they have watched live events on Netflix, and 50% said they would be likelier to keep their subscription if more live events were included. "Increasing adoption and attraction of Live Events is providing early evidence of 'Bundle Power,'" Mahaney wrote in a Thursday note to clients. "Remember how much you paid for your cable bundle? We don't either, but we guarantee it was a lot more than the $24.99 Netflix currently offers for its Premium Plan. And as Netflix continues to enlarge its content offering – adding in Live Events for e.g. – its ability to raise prices will increase." NFLX 1Y mountain Netflix stock performance. Mahaney added that the survey results pointed to greater satisfaction levels from Netflix subscribers, and flat viewing trends for the second quarter while other streaming peers saw modest decline. Netflix was also a favorite for its content among the respondents. It ranked the best in terms of content quality according to more than 40% of U.S. respondents and 67% of UK respondents, keeping its competitive leadership over Amazon Prime Video and Disney's Hulu, Mahaney noted. Netflix's bet on live events has so far paid off. The company added a record 19 million subscribers globally in the fourth quarter, aided by its streaming of a highly-anticipated boxing match between Jake Paul and Mike Tyson —which became the most-streamed sporting event in history — as well as two NFL games on Christmas Day. Netflix boasted strong revenue growth during the first quarter of 2025, even after hiking its subscription prices for its three plans. The company is targeting a $1 trillion market capitalization and doubling its revenue by 2030. Evercore ISI is one of several Wall Street firms that remain bullish on the stock. Of the 55 analysts covering Netflix, 37 rate it a strong buy or buy, according to LSEG.
Business Insider
29-04-2025
- Business
- Business Insider
Elon Musk's Starlink mints money and has become a geopolitical power tool. No wonder Amazon is splurging on satellites.
When Andy Jassy went on a post-COVID cost cutting spree, eliminating roughly 27,000 employees, I thought most of Amazon's risky moonshot projects would also get the chop. So, when Jassy didn't cut Project Kuiper, a bold plan to launch a constellation of internet-beaming satellites, I scratched my head. Of all Amazon's moonshots, this may be the most expensive. If the CEO wanted to quickly slash costs, nixing Kuiper would have been the play. Instead, Kuiper survived the purge — while others, like an AR headset for business meetings, were cut — and Amazon plowed ahead. That decision underscores two key drivers: massive profit potential and a desire for strategic independence from Elon Musk. The lure of Starlink-sized profit If there's any blueprint for Kuiper's financial upside, it's Starlink. SpaceX's satellite internet venture has rocketed ahead in recent years. Evercore ISI analyst Mark Mahaney recently shared estimates of Starlink's financials, citing Chris Quilty, an expert from the satellite and space industry. These are pretty mind-blowing numbers, especially for a service that was initially ridiculed as impractical and expensive when Musk announced it a decade ago: $12.3 billion in projected revenue for the 2025 fiscal year, up 57% from a year earlier. 7.6 million subscriptions, an increase of 3 million subs from 2024. $7.5 billion in earnings, before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization, a common measure of profitability known as EBITDA. 61% EBITDA margin. And for those who dislike accounting gymnastics: $2 billion of free cash flow. Quilty also forecast that, at maturity, Starlink could reach 80% EBITDA margins. "This suggests Kuiper could be a highly attractive business for Amazon at scale," ISI Evercore's Mahaney wrote in a recent note to investors. Recent investment rounds valued SpaceX at about $350 billion. Amazon has thin margins in its core e-commerce business, so Kuiper is a potential way to diversify into a more lucrative field. Mahaney noted that Kuiper is going after a $1 trillion total addressable market in terrestrial telecom and broadband services. Given that Amazon typically competes in ultra-low-margin sectors like e-commerce, the prospect of an 80% margin business is probably too good to ignore. If that's not enough of an incentive, here's another: There's only so much satellite communication spectrum up in space, especially the low-earth orbit areas where Starlink dominates. Because of this, Quilty reckons Kuiper is not only the closest challenger to Starlink — it will likely be the only significant competitor. Despite delays, Kuiper's launch of 27 satellites this week is a tangible step toward monetization. Amazon has also announced plans to sell Kuiper terminals for under $400, aiming for tens of millions of units, and is working toward a commercial service. A need for autonomy Beyond these tantalizing profits, I think there's another strategic motive driving Amazon's satellite ambitions: It doesn't want to depend on Musk. Starlink's ability to beam internet service around the world, combined with SpaceX's unmatched launch capability, has made this company a potent geopolitical tool. After Russia invaded Ukraine, Starlink service to this war-torn area became so strategically important that the Pentagon had to negotiate directly with Musk to maintain internet communications there. This is the type of power that catches the attention of Big Tech companies that rely on the internet to reach customers. I can imagine the prospect of going through Elon to reach users might make most tech CEOs queasy. Reliable and strong internet access is especially important for Amazon. The company's cloud business, AWS, is the backbone of its profits, and it controls a growing share of global digital infrastructure. Relying on Starlink for some broadband access could be a major risk. The same Starlink terminals that provide residential internet also serve military and enterprise customers, including some that Amazon might wish to court. Amazon founder Jeff Bezos has been clear on this. While acknowledging Starlink's success, he has emphasized that demand for internet access is insatiable and leaves room for multiple winners. But underneath the diplomacy is a business logic that's impossible to ignore: Amazon needs its own highway to the cloud. Kuiper offers that. Moreover, by owning the infrastructure from space to server, Amazon can better control quality, pricing, and reach — especially in areas where terrestrial internet is unreliable. It also reduces geopolitical and commercial dependencies on third-party providers who might not share Amazon's priorities. Project Kuiper is far from a vanity play. It's a strategic moonshot aimed squarely at two objectives: unlocking a high-margin business with billion-dollar upside and insulating Amazon from dependence on an unpredictable rival. As Starlink proves the model and Amazon begins scaling Kuiper's constellation, this once-head-scratching bet is starting to look like a savvy move.
