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Extra.ie
16-06-2025
- Politics
- Extra.ie
Fianna Fáil split on candidate for Presidential election
A split is developing within Fianna Fáil over whether they should run a Presidential candidate in November. In the wake of the decision of Barry Andrews to rule himself out, the party is struggling to find a viable candidate – unless they choose former party leader Bertie Ahern. In the wake of the departure of Mr Andrews from the reckoning, Minister of State Niall Collins bluntly told 'My view is that if we do not have a viable candidate, we should not run.' A split is developing within Fianna Fáil over whether they should run a Presidential candidate in November. Pic: Leah Farrell/ He added: 'Without Micheál Martin, we do not have a candidate, currently, who can win it, and Micheál Martin is committed to remaining as Taoiseach.' Mr Collins was articulating a growing view within the party. A senior party figure said: 'Are we really serious about spending €500,000 so Cynthia ní Mhurchú can become transfer fodder for Fine Gael's Mairéad McGuinness?' Commenting on the increasingly volatile political situation, they said: 'November could be very difficult. We will have enough to be doing with a budget, Trump, Ukraine, Gaza and the economy without becoming embroiled in some Presidential fracas we can't win.' President Mary McAleese and her husband Martin. Pic:After dominating the office for the first 90 years of the State, Fianna Fáil has effectively been excised from the office since Mary McAleese ended her second term in 2011. In 2011, Mr Martin sat out the election after RTÉ broadcaster Gay Byrne snubbed FF's attempt to secure the candidacy. The campaign of the party's proxy candidate, Seán Gallagher, then collapsed in flames in the final week before the election. In a decision both would regret in 2018, both Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael backed the return of Michael D Higgins to office. Currently, those who are believed to be at the top of the party list include MEP Cynthia Ní Mhurchú and retired former ministers Mary Hanafin and Éamon Ó Cuív. Cynthia Ní Mhurchú. Pc: Leah Farrell/© One source noted: 'They would at a pinch do for a by-election but no, not a Presidential odyssey.' Some residual support exists for the former Taoiseach, Mr Ahern, who has, for the last three years, been circumspectly flirting with the prospect of a run. It is believed the current leader is hostile to such a move, given concerns over the role of Mr Ahern in the economic crash and the findings of the Mahon Tribunal. Former Taoiseach Bertie Ahern. Pic: Colin Keegan/Collins Dublin Sources within Fianna Fáil remain supportive, with one TD noting: 'We should not just hand the Aras over to Fine Gael like some second-tier Coalition partner. 'Should Bertie run, there is a very good chance he would retain the party's core vote of 20%. Yes, there is the Tribunal, but all that is old history. It is worth noting that the Mahon Tribunal report is seriously discredited by the courts.' Another TD said: 'Don't forget Bertie has huge charisma, no one else has ever had a closer relationship with the voters, and he is the clever statesman we need more than ever in a dangerous world. Is there one more run in him? We think so. 'For sure, if Micheál is not running, it is Bertie or no one.' The decision on whether to run a candidate – and if so, who – will be taken by 71 TDs, senators and MEPs making up the parliamentary party.
Irish Times
08-06-2025
- Business
- Irish Times
After years of economic calm, Ireland could be facing a storm. Are we better prepared this time?
On the day that Brian Cowen was elected taoiseach on May 7th, 2008, one of the headlines in The Irish Times read 'Poor old unlucky Bertie '. The Mahon tribunal had stampeded through Ahern's murky personal finances with a coach and four earlier that year, and Ahern had no choice but to fall on his sword. His successor Brian Cowen had been Fianna Fáil 's dauphin prince for a decade. In a for-once becalmed and benign Dáil, he listened as party leaders heaped praise on him and wished him well. In his own speech, he said he wanted to care for the less well-off in society and create 'caring and compassionate communities'. That day was as good as it got for Cowen. A retrospective headline could have read: 'Poor old unlucky Biffo'. And as for Bertie? He dodged a bullet that day. The first slate clouds of the coming storm were massing just over the horizon. READ MORE There were some small signs already evident. The State's revenues in the first four months of the year had fallen alarmingly. Yet, the Versailles levels of spending continued apace. [ Is this Government repeating the mistakes of 2008? Opens in new window ] That was only the beginning of the tragedy that was to unfold for Cowen and for the State. By June came the confirmation of a slump in house sales, and a significant downturn in bank profitability. The late Brian Lenihan mused that month it was just his luck to become minister for finance at the moment the building boom had come a 'shuddering halt'. The government began to batten down the hatches but the hurricane had already made landfall. Those who write about politics love the phrase of George Santayana's that 'those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.' Since the economic crash there have been several extraordinary events that might have presented credible threats to political stability across Ireland, Europe and the world: Brexit; the Covid-19 pandemic; the war in Ukraine; the energy crisis; the terrible events of October 7th and the unspeakable annihilation of Gaza by Israel. Now we have a bellicose Trump presidency, brimful with threats and tariffs. [ Corporate tax take tumbles 30% for May with €1.1bn less over same month last year Opens in new window ] The State has somehow managed to weather all those storms. That has been partly thanks to huge windfalls from corporation tax that have given Ireland a buffer from the worst impacts of Covid and the cost-of-living crisis. Annual once-off payments for households became the norm during the last Dáil term. Seemingly, our economy still retains the knack of defying gravity. Two sets of figures, published on Thursday, suggest that all looks good for the public finances. The Department of Finance confirmed there has been an increase of 3.6 per cent in tax revenue so far this year. Economic growth also looks strong. According to CSO data, gross domestic product (GDP) grew by almost 10 per cent in the first quarter of 2025, driven by a surge in exports. When President Trump started sabre-rattling about tariffs earlier this year, many people discovered for the first time the kind of astronomical figures associated with multinationals based here. Exports to the US from Ireland were worth €68 billion in 2024, two-thirds of which came from pharmaceuticals and medical devices. Beneath that veneer lies a more complicated scenario. Since 2011 there have been two parallel Irish economies, a global one and a domestic one. During the best years, GDP figures have been spectacular. But the picture was distorted. That part of the economy that doesn't feature gleaming towers in the Docklands, space-age pharmaceutical companies or aircraft leasing was lagging behind dramatically. This economy is made up of PAYE employees, or people working in less glamorous sectors, and those in the gig economy. Their reality has been a constant struggle to pay bills as prices escalate, to meet childcare costs, to scrape together enough to pay the mortgage or rent and put petrol in their cars. A new category, modified domestic demand (MDD), was created to better reflect that domestic economy. For example, when you strip out the multinationals, growth in MDD was less than 1 per cent in the first quarter of 2025. Not tanking by any means. But slowing. Tax take also seems to be holding up overall in 2025. However, the picture is complicated by the Apple tax money. When that is excluded, corporation tax is no longer up 18 per cent, but is more than 9 per cent down on the same period last year. Is that a sign that that ATM is finally running out of cash? It feels hard to escape from the sense that after years of generally smooth cruising, we are now facing turbulence. You can see signs of that wariness at institutional level. The Government has said categorically there will be no once-off payments this year. It has also revoked a plan to extend statutory sick-leave entitlements by two days. Sensibly, too, it has began an urgent all-hands-on-deck diplomatic and trade offensive to diversify away from the US and open up new markets elsewhere. One thing that has been reminiscent of the Celtic Tiger over the past decade is the willingness of governments to spend a lot of money. The capital housing budget has had a fivefold increase from €1.2 billion in 2017 to €6 billion in 2025. The health budget has almost doubled in the same period, up from €14.6 billion in 2017 to €25.8 billion this year. Overall State expenditure topped €100 billion for the first time in 2024. That's all well and good, unless we encounter a 2008-style collapse in revenue. Are we better prepared for the coming storm than 17 years ago? The answer is probably yes but even that might not inure us.
