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Arabian Post
02-07-2025
- Politics
- Arabian Post
Iran is not Syria, not even Saudi Arabia
By Manish Rai The question of regime change in Iran has recently resurfaced after the killing of Iran's top military commanders following the Israeli airstrikes. However, Israel's short-term goal was to damage Iran's nuclear facilities to severely diminish its weapons program. But the Israeli Prime Minister mentioned during his speeches that the war with Iran 'could certainly' lead to regime change in the Islamic Republic. It is not the first time that foreign powers have imagined Iran as a crumbling house, one that only needs a gentle push, or a series of airstrikes, before it falls into new hands. This was the fantasy in 1953, when the CIA and the British intelligence overthrew Mohammad Mossadegh, Iran's prime minister, who had nationalized the country's oil, and pushed Iran into Mohammad Reza Pahlavi's autocratic rule. And this was also the dream in the 1980s, when Saddam Hussein invaded Iran with military and economic support from the United States, the United Kingdom, France, and Israel, who believed the newly revolutionary Iran would collapse in months. Founded in 1979 after the Iranian Revolution, the Islamic Republic of Iran has democratic, theocratic, and authoritarian elements in its governance system, which makes it a hybrid. The founding figure of the Islamic Republic, Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, envisioned a state run by Islamic clerics and jurists who ensured all policies adhered to Islamic law. ADVERTISEMENT As Iran was a constitutional monarchy before the revolution, theocratic elements were effectively grafted on top of the existing republican ones, such as the parliament, executive, and judiciary. Iran has a unicameral legislature (one house of parliament), called the Majles, and a president. There are regular elections for both. But, while there are democratic elements within this system, in practice, it is a 'closed loop' that keeps the clerical elite in power and prevents challenges to the supreme leader. There is a clear hierarchy, with the supreme leader at the top. This complex system of governance makes the Iranian regime a unique one in the Middle East. Iran is not Syria, Libya, or Iraq, where, in the recent past, regime change has been achieved. United States policy makers often underestimate the strength of the Iranian state, which is structured for survival. The following features and dynamics make the Iranian regime hard to replace. The Iranian military has a dual architecture designed to resist coups and invasions: Artesh, the regular armed forces of around 420,000 men across ground, naval, air, and air-defence troops, and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), an elite, ideologically driven military with roughly 190,000 personnel across ground, naval, and air branches. Beyond them is the Basij, a vast paramilitary network with hundreds of thousands of members embedded in every corner of Iranian society—in the streets, in neighbourhoods, in schools, and mosques. They aren't just loyalists of the Ayatollah but woven into a deeper idea of the state and committed to the core ideology of the Islamic Republic. Despite Israel's extensive and quite successful campaign of assassinations targeting senior IRGC commanders, the core of this group has not been hollowed out but hardened. A younger generation of more ideologically rigid commanders has emerged. This new generation of Iranian military commanders has also been battle-hardened in close-quarter conflict in Syria and understands how wars of state collapse can unfold. Bombing and Air campaigns could significantly destroy military and civilian infrastructure in Iran, but to replace the Iranian regime, President Trump must be prepared to fight not just a standing army but a system with decades of experience in asymmetric warfare. Iran is not governed by a single man or clique that can be decapitated. The Iranian state is a competitive authoritarian system with institutions that have evolved over a century. Even amid a crisis, the system generates new leaders, factions, and power centres. Even the deaths of some influential figures would not bring the system down; it would renew it. Iran is not merely a conventional state; it is built upon a revolutionary, theocratic ideology. The current structure is more than a government; it is part of an ideological movement rooted in the principles of revolution and resistance. It is naive to think that any external military attack or intervention could destroy this structure. Historically, when Iran faces external threats, its citizens unite under nationalist sentiment, thereby strengthening the ruling regime. More than 46 years after the Iranian Revolution, there is still talk among Iranians, both those living in the country and among the diaspora, that the end of the regime is nearing. Unless and until large factions of the regime's military, police, and intelligence forces begin defecting, it will be hard for the people of Iran to overthrow the regime. And unfortunately, in every protest movement in Iran since the 1979 revolution, that hasn't happened. The protesters haven't convinced significant individuals within the regime to step away and join them. Yes, there is discontent among the Iranian people, especially regarding women's rights, economic crises, and political freedoms. However, this dissatisfaction has not yet transformed into a well-organized movement. A significant number of Iranian citizens are voicing their dissatisfaction with the Iranian regime over issues of human rights abuses, the absolute authority of the Supreme Leader, the declining economy of the country, and the lack of freedoms of speech, assembly, and thought. From the 2009 Green Movement to the 2017-2019 economic protests and the 2022 'Women, Life, Freedom' uprising, Iranians have demonstrated extraordinary courage in confronting state violence. But these uprisings have not translated into regime collapse. Iranian opposition groups may be getting western media attention, but the hard reality is that they have no ground presence inside Iran. The monarchists and the former Mojahedin (Presently NCRI) are positively despised by much of the Iranian diaspora, but unfortunately have no grassroots support. On top of this, there is no unity among Iranian opposition groups. Even there is no consensus on the basic norms of democratic governance. The opposition remains paralysed and ill-prepared to step in if the regime collapses and poses no major threat to the current regime. ADVERTISEMENT Also published on Medium. Notice an issue? Arabian Post strives to deliver the most accurate and reliable information to its readers. If you believe you have identified an error or inconsistency in this article, please don't hesitate to contact our editorial team at editor[at]thearabianpost[dot]com. We are committed to promptly addressing any concerns and ensuring the highest level of journalistic integrity.
Memri
29-06-2025
- Politics
- Memri
Iranian Majles Deputy Speaker Hamid-Reza Haj Babaei: Iran Suspended Its Cooperation with the IAEA, There Will Be No Limit on Production, Research, or Missile Power; Grossi Is a 'Terror Mastermind,' IA
Iranian Majles Deputy Speaker Hamid-Reza Haj Babaei discussed the Majles vote to suspend all cooperation with the IAEA in a June 25, 2025 interview on IRINN TV (Iran). Dressed in combat uniform, Babaei called IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi a 'terror mastermind' and claimed that every IAEA inspector who came to Iran was a spy, alleging they had chips in their shoes that recorded everything. He stated that it was NATO, not Israel, that fought Iran for 12 days. Babaei said that from now on, inspection cameras would show only a black screen, and all inspections would be prohibited. He added that Iran would produce and research as much as it wants, with no ceiling. He also stated that Iran's missiles should now be ten times more powerful, along with its air defenses.
The Hindu
25-06-2025
- Politics
- The Hindu
Iran Parliament passes resolution to suspend cooperation with IAEA
Iran's Parliament (Majles) passed a resolution on Wednesday (June 25, 2025) to suspend the country's cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). The development was shared on social media by the Embassy of Iran. The announcement came soon after the Embassy of Iran expressed 'heartfelt gratitude' to the people of India for extending support to Iran during the 12-day war with Israel. Iran's Ambassador to India Iraj Elahi also took to social media and criticised the U.S. for its June 22 attack on three nuclear sites reminding that Iran faced the attacks despite being a member of the IAEA and NPT (Nuclear non-Proliferation Treaty). Sepah News, the official media wing of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), announced the passage of the resolution on the IAEA in the Majles and said, 'By a resolution of the Islamic Consultative Assembly of Iran, Iran's cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency has been suspended. The leadership of international organizations is not a responsibility that can be entrusted to a spy.' Earlier, in a statement, the Embassy of Iran described the Israel-U.S. military campaign as a 'blatant aggression' that violated the UN Charter, and 'foundational norms of international law', saying the Iranian mission in India 'extends its heartfelt gratitude to all noble and freedom-loving people of India — including the esteemed citizens, political parties, honorable members of Parliament, non-governmental organizations, religious and spiritual leaders, university professors, members of the media, social activists, and all individuals and institutions who in recent days and in various forms stood firmly and vocally…' 'The messages of solidarity, moral support, public statements, and active participation in peace-oriented gatherings and initiatives, during a time when the Iranian people were under brutal military assault by the occupying Zionist regime, have been a source of deep encouragement,' said the Embassy of Iran in the public statement. The statement came as Tehran announced funeral for the generals and nuclear scientists to be held on June 28. Ambassador Elahi in his denunciation of the U.S. attack on nuclear sites in Fordow, Esfahan and Natanz said, the date 'must be recorded in history' as the U.S. 'as a member of the NPT and a permanent member of the UN Security Council, attacked the peaceful nuclear facilities of a non-nuclear weapon state that is also a member of the NPT and IAEA.' The ambassador's remarks are significant as they indicate evolving position of Tehran regarding IAEA and NPT.
Memri
18-06-2025
- Politics
- Memri
Iranian MP Mahmoud Nabavian: U.S. Should Prepare 50,000 Coffins Before Even Taking a Hostile Glance Our Way; If They Block Our Oil Flow – No Other Country's Oil Will Flow
Iranian Majles Member Mahmoud Nabavian said on Channel 3 (Iran) on June 16, 2025, that countries in the region - including Israel and the United States - should be warned that if they attempt to block Iran's oil exports or disrupt domestic supply, no other country will be able to export or access oil for domestic use either. 'They should take my threat seriously,' he warned. Nabavian said that Iranian missiles could reach American bases in the region within 2–4 minutes, making them impossible to intercept, and added that striking an American destroyer is well within Iran's capabilities. He said Iran is monitoring Diego Garcia and has plans for it. He warned the U.S. that before even contemplating aggression against Iran, it should prepare 50,000 coffins for its troops, 'before they even dare take a hostile glance at the Iranian nation.' He also said Iran would retaliate against Israel for the assassination of its Chief of Staff with assassinations of its own, whether during or after the war.
AllAfrica
18-06-2025
- Politics
- AllAfrica
Regime change wouldn't likely bring democracy to Iran
The timing and targets of Israel's attacks on Iran tell us that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's short-term goal is to damage Iran's nuclear facilities in order to diminish its weapons program severely. But Netanyahu has made clear another goal: he said the war with Iran 'could certainly' lead to regime change in the Islamic republic. These comments came after an Israeli plan to assassinate the supreme leader of Iran, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, was reportedly rebuffed by United States President Donald Trump. It's no secret Israel has wanted to see the current government of Iran fall for some time, as have many government officials in the US. But what would things look like if the government did topple? Founded in 1979 after the Iranian Revolution, the Islamic Republic of Iran has democratic, theocratic and authoritarian elements to its governing structure. The founding figure of the Islamic republic, Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, envisioned a state run by Islamic clerics and jurists who ensured all policies adhered to Islamic law. As Iran was a constitutional monarchy before the revolution, theocratic elements were effectively grafted on top of the existing republican ones, such as the parliament, executive and judiciary. Iran has a unicameral legislature (one house of parliament), called the Majles, and a president (currently Masoud Pezeshkian). There are regular elections for both. But while there are democratic elements within this system, in practice it is a 'closed loop' that keeps the clerical elite in power and prevents challenges to the supreme leader. There is a clear hierarchy, with the supreme leader at the top. Khamenei has been in power for more than 35 years, taking office following Khomeini's death in 1989. The former president of Iran, he was chosen to become supreme leader by the Assembly of Experts, an 88-member body of Islamic jurists. While members of the assembly are elected by the public, candidates must be vetted by the powerful 12-member Guardian Council (also known as the Constitutional Council). Half of this body is selected by the supreme leader, while the other half is approved by the Majles. The council also has the power to vet all candidates for president and the parliament. In last year's elections, the Guardian Council disqualified many candidates from running for president, as well as for the Majles and the Assembly of Experts. Among those disqualified was a moderate former president, Hassan Rouhani. As such, the supreme leader is increasingly facing a crisis of legitimacy with the public. Elections routinely have low turnout. Even with a reformist presidential candidate in last year's field – the eventual winner, Masoud Pezeshkian – turnout was below 40% in the first round. Freedom House gives Iran a global freedom score of just 11 out of 100. The supreme leader also directly appoints the leaders in key governance structures, such as the judiciary, the armed forces and Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). So, Iran is far from a democracy. But the idea that regime change would lead to a full democracy that is aligned with Israel and the US is very unlikely. Iranian politics is extremely factional. Ideological factions, such as the reformists, moderates and conservatives, often disagree vehemently on key policy areas. They also jockey for influence with the supreme leader and the rest of the clerical elite. None of these factions is particularly friendly with the US, and especially not with Israel. There are also institutional factions. The most powerful group in the country is the clerical elite, led by the supreme leader. The next most powerful faction would be the IRGC. Originally formed as a kind of personal guard for the supreme leader, the IRGC's fighting strength now rivals that of the regular army. The IRGC is extremely hardline politically. At times, the IRGC's influence domestically has outstripped that of presidents, exerting significant pressure on their policies. The guard only vocally supports presidents in lockstep with Islamic revolutionary doctrine. In addition to its control over military hardware and its political influence, the guard is also entwined with the Iranian economy. The IRGC is heavily enriched by the status quo, with some describing it as a 'kleptocratic' institution. IRGC officials are often awarded state contracts, and are allegedly involved in managing the 'black economy' used to evade sanctions. Given all of this, the IRGC would be the most likely political institution to take control of Iran if the clerical elite were removed from power. In peacetime, the general consensus is the IRGC would not have the resources to orchestrate a coup if the supreme leader died. But in a time of war against a clear enemy, things could be different. So, what might happen if Israel were to assassinate the supreme leader? One scenario would be a martial law state led by the IRGC, formed at least in the short term for the purposes of protecting the revolution. In the unlikely event the entire clerical leadership were decimated, the IRGC could attempt to reform the Assembly of Experts and choose a new supreme leader itself, perhaps even supporting Khamenei's son's candidacy. Needless to say, this outcome would not lead to a state more friendly to Israel or the US. In fact, it could potentially empower a faction that has long argued for a more militant response to both. Another scenario is a popular uprising. Netanyahu certainly seems to think this is possible, saying in a recent interview: 'The decision to act, to rise up this time, is the decision of the Iranian people.' Indeed, many Iranians have long been disillusioned with their government – even with more moderate and reformist elements within it. Mass protests have broken out several times in recent decades – most recently in 2022 – despite heavy retaliation from law enforcement. We've seen enough revolutions to know this is possible. After all, modern Iran was formed out of one. But once again, new political leadership being more friendly to Israel and the West is not a foregone conclusion. It is possible for Iranians to hold contempt in their hearts for both their leaders and the foreign powers that would upend their lives. Andrew Thomas is a lecturer in Middle East Studies at Deakin University. This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.
