Latest news with #Manaral-Obaidi
Shafaq News
02-07-2025
- Business
- Shafaq News
Foreign investment deficit persists in Iraq despite multibillion-dollar deals
Shafaq News - Baghdad Iraq recorded a net foreign investment loss of $8B in 2024, reflecting continued capital flight and underperformance in attracting financial inflows, according to the Iraq Future Foundation. Foundation director Manar al-Obaidi, citing Central Bank figures, reported that $7.6B in foreign holdings exited Iraq last year. Additionally, Iraqi entities placed $400M in overseas ventures. Data for the first quarter of 2025 showed the trend persisted, with $1B in external withdrawals and $133M in outbound Iraqi investments—a 21% rise from the previous quarter. Despite a year-on-year decrease in net outflows, al-Obaidi cautioned that the overall balance remains negative, underscoring persistent obstacles to retaining and attracting international capital. The Foundation highlighted that foreign direct investment plays a critical role in stabilizing the country's external accounts by bolstering hard currency reserves alongside oil revenues. Ongoing deficits, it warned, could intensify pressure on the financial system. While authorities claimed to have secured $63B in investment commitments over the past two years, the Foundation found no traceable impact in monetary statistics, and concluded that many projects remain pending or inactive, with no actual funds entering the domestic economy.
Shafaq News
30-06-2025
- Business
- Shafaq News
Iraq's dollar reserve bleeds from inflated import invoices
Shafaq News – Baghdad Iraq's foreign currency reserves are being drained due to inflated import invoices, a local economic expert warned on Monday, calling for urgent reform to the country's trade and currency transfer mechanisms. Manar al-Obaidi, head of the Iraq Future Foundation, said that trade data from countries such as China, Turkiye, and the United Arab Emirates show clear discrepancies between the declared value of goods exported to Iraq and their actual market prices, suggesting large-scale over-invoicing. He cited figures from Chinese exports as an example, in the first five months of 2025, Iraq reportedly imported $170 million worth of Chinese footwear and nearly $600 million in clothing. "These figures do not reflect the true demand in Iraq's market nor align with global prices," al-Obaidi stated, adding that this strongly indicates invoice inflation in terms of both volume and value. According to al-Obaidi, certain parties are exploiting the difference between Iraq's official exchange rate and the parallel market rate. He explained that by inflating invoices, these entities have managed to funnel large sums of money through the official banking channels, bypassing multiple layers of scrutiny designed to verify transfers and ensure they reach legitimate recipients. Although the Central Bank of Iraq has implemented stricter auditing procedures to control currency outflows, al-Obaidi argued that the current framework has proven ineffective. "The weakness is evident not only in the export data from trading partners but also in Iraq's persistently low customs revenues, which remain disproportionately small compared to the volume of declared imports," he said. Al-Obaidi called for a new mechanism linking bank transfers to customs duties, under which importers would not be allowed to access the official exchange rate unless they first settle the customs fees based on the declared value of the transfer. "This approach would achieve two key objectives," he explained, adding that "It would tighten oversight on transfers made at the official rate and increase state revenues by ensuring duties are calculated based on the real value of goods." However, he acknowledged that such a proposal may face resistance. Critics might argue it risks pushing the dinar further down in the parallel market by tightening access to foreign currency and could be seen as a fiscal intervention rather than a monetary one. "What Iraq is experiencing today, an uncontrolled drain of foreign currency and a decline in reserves due to unchecked imports, demands exceptional measures, even if they carry side effects," al-Obaidi warned. He concluded that reforming Iraq's transfer and import systems is no longer optional, but 'an urgent necessity to safeguard economic stability and protect Iraq's foreign currency reserves.'
Shafaq News
08-06-2025
- Business
- Shafaq News
Iraqi expert: Turkiye using water as leverage in trade
Shafaq News/ Turkiye is increasingly linking access to water resources with trade flows to Iraq, raising concerns about the potential long-term impact on the country's agriculture, industry, and economic independence, according to Manar al-Obaidi, head of the Future Iraq Foundation. In a Facebook post, al-Obaidi referenced comments by Gursel Baran, chairman of the Ankara Chamber of Commerce, who outlined a shared objective between Baghdad and Ankara to raise bilateral trade to $30 billion annually, with Turkish exports expected to make up more than 90% of the total. While Baran did not provide details on when or where this target was set, al-Obaidi interpreted the figures as reflecting Ankara's growing view of Iraq as a key export market. He also pointed to a shift in the bilateral relationship's framework. The longstanding concept of 'oil for water,' he observed, appears to be evolving into a new arrangement he described as 'imports for water,' in which increased Iraqi imports from Turkiye could influence the volume of water released from Turkish dams. Under this emerging arrangement, al-Obaidi cautioned that Iraq faces limited options: either tolerate reduced water flows, which he described as 'unacceptable,' or increase imports from Turkiye in the 'hope of securing more favorable water releases.' He further urged the Iraqi government to clarify its position by either publicly rejecting the proposed trade target or disclosing details of any formal agreement with Turkiye, if one exists.
Shafaq News
03-06-2025
- Business
- Shafaq News
Iraqi salary bill set to soar, economist warns
Shafaq News/ Iraqi government spending on salaries is set to surge, potentially doubling to 5% over the next five years and putting the country's economy at serious risk, economist Manar al-Obaidi, head of the Iraq Future Foundation, warned on Tuesday. In a Facebook post, al-Obaidi forecast a 27% increase in Iraq's public sector salaries in 2024, surpassing 60 trillion IQD ($42.37 billion) for the first time—an amount equal to 40% of total government expenditures. 'Salaries have reached dangerous levels that will have catastrophic consequences for Iraq's economy,' he cautioned. He noted that salary expenses have risen by 50% over the past five years, without a corresponding increase in non-oil revenues or improvements in public services, questioning, 'What's the benefit of raising the salary bill?' Meanwhile, the ongoing salary dispute between Baghdad and Erbil has fueled persistent tension, with the federal government's recent decision to halt salary disbursements to the Region's employees sparking criticism in Kurdistan. The Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) condemned the federal government's decision calling it a violation of constitutional rights and a form of political exploitation.
Shafaq News
05-05-2025
- Business
- Shafaq News
Foreign banks under fire: Iraqi economist slams limited role
Shafaq News/ Foreign banks in Iraq are focused solely on 'profiting from money transfers,' offering little to no contribution to the country's economic development, head of the Iraq al-Mustaqbal Foundation Manar al-Obaidi told Shafaq News on Monday. 'Despite restrictions imposed on some Iraqi banks, money transfers abroad have not declined. The same channels and beneficiaries remain active,' al-Obaidi said. He rejected claims that continued transfers reflect the superiority of foreign banks over Iraqi ones, asserting instead that these institutions 'do not offer any developmental plans for underserved or remote areas. Their activity is concentrated in commercial hubs for the sole purpose of facilitating transfers.' Al-Obaidi noted that the combined credit portfolios of foreign banks account for less than 30% of the lending provided by Iraqi banks. 'There are no real financing programs in place for various economic sectors,' he added. He also accused staff at some foreign banks of engaging in questionable practices to ease transfers. 'Banking decisions are dominated by the managing director or board chairman, with limited institutional oversight,' he said, describing weak governance across several institutions. In addition to their narrow operational focus, al-Obaidi said the banks lack meaningful digital platforms and have not participated in any vital national projects. 'Foreign banks have not contributed to any initiatives like oil refineries or infrastructure,' he said. He concluded with a warning, 'These banks rely solely on their links to US correspondent banks. Their operations are built around generating profit from money transfers. If that avenue is closed, they will pack up and return home with profits in hand.'
