Latest news with #MariaSolovieva
Yahoo
2 days ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Young families are shrinking their mortgages. But does this mean they are priced out?
Younger Canadian families are bucking the national trend and reducing their overall mortgage debt, figures from Statistics Canada suggest, but the decrease may not be all good news. After hitting a peak in the third quarter of 2022, average mortgage balances among families where the primary income earner is aged 35 or younger have fallen by about $15,500, according to a report out Tuesday from Toronto-Dominion Bank citing data from Statistics Canada. Even accounting for any seasonal variation, when comparing the first quarter of 2023 to this first quarter of 2025, there was an 8.5 per cent decline (or about $10,400 less on average) in mortgage balances among younger Canadians, said Maria Solovieva, TD economist and author of the report. All other age groups have seen a steady increase in household mortgage debt since the second quarter of 2020, Statistics Canada data show. It is likely many younger households are unable to access the housing market altogether due to affordability challenges, Solovieva said. After home prices hit their peak in March 2022, following the frenzy of homebuying amid lower interest rates during the COVID-19 pandemic, the Bank of Canada started raising interest rates and home sales began to soften. Solovieva said younger Canadians have been prioritizing reducing their debt obligations in the face of rising borrowing costs. About 35 per cent of young adults are likely to rent, compared with less than a quarter of older age groups, according to Statistics Canada's 2024 Canadian Social Survey. There may also be other reasons for the drop in mortgage balances among young people. It is possible some younger Canadians are purchasing cheaper homes or own their homes outright, especially if they have received financial gifts from their parents, Solovieva said. Since the total value of real estate assets for younger Canadians has grown since the third quarter of 2022, it suggests more people in this age group are receiving financial help to buy homes than those who may be buying less expensive homes, Solovieva said. In the meantime, older Canadians are taking on more debt, although there is no sign they are taking on more investment properties or renovations to account for this, she said. In fact, Statistics Canada reported recently that households aged 55 to 64 years increased their mortgage balances by more than eight per cent from the first quarter of 2024 to the same period in 2025, while those aged 65 years and older increased their mortgage balances by nearly nine per cent. Older Canadians are expected to pass down $1 trillion to their heirs over the next few years, according to the most recent data from the Chartered Professional Accountants Canada. Many wealth advisers have reported these wealth transfers are already arriving in the form of early inheritances; in most cases to help adult children purchase their first homes. A 2024 Bank of Canada report also found more than 20 per cent of first-time home buyers received gifts to help make their down payments. Younger first-time home buyers were even more likely to receive gifts when purchasing their homes. This could exacerbate an existing trend, Solovieva said. Data show the lowest-income young households have seen their debt-to-income ratio balloon from 244 per cent before the pandemic to 446 per cent in Q1 2025. 'A lot of wealth (is) built through real estate, (so) somebody who is not in the market is left out,' said Solovieva, noting existing homeowners have largely benefited from rising real estate values over time. 'It's basically going to continue on as long as we still have this dynamic of unaffordability.' The best mortgage rates in Canada right now The best reverse mortgage rates in Canada right now Solovieva does not expect this trend of waning mortgage balances to entirely reverse in the near future but does anticipate it to level off as immigration levels decline, which could cool growth in housing prices. The latest report from the Canadian Real Estate Association revealed the national average sale price was down 1.3 per cent year-over-year to hit $691,643 in June. • Email: slouis@ Error while retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error while retrieving data Error while retrieving data Error while retrieving data Error while retrieving data
Vancouver Sun
2 days ago
- Business
- Vancouver Sun
Young families are shrinking their mortgages. But does this mean they are priced out?
Younger Canadian families are bucking the national trend and reducing their overall mortgage debt , figures from Statistics Canada suggest, but the decrease may not be all good news. After hitting a peak in the third quarter of 2022, average mortgage balances among families where the primary income earner is aged 35 or younger have fallen by about $15,500, according to a report out Tuesday from Toronto-Dominion Bank citing data from Statistics Canada. Even accounting for any seasonal variation, when comparing the first quarter of 2023 to this first quarter of 2025, there was an 8.5 per cent decline (or about $10,400 less on average) in mortgage balances among younger Canadians, said Maria Solovieva, TD economist and author of the report. Start your day with a roundup of B.C.-focused news and opinion. By signing up you consent to receive the above newsletter from Postmedia Network Inc. A welcome email is on its way. If you don't see it, please check your junk folder. The next issue of Sunrise will soon be in your inbox. Please try again Interested in more newsletters? Browse here. All other age groups have seen a steady increase in household mortgage debt since the second quarter of 2020, Statistics Canada data show. It is likely many younger households are unable to access the housing market altogether due to affordability challenges , Solovieva said. After home prices hit their peak in March 2022, following the frenzy of homebuying amid lower interest rates during the COVID-19 pandemic, the Bank of Canada started raising interest rates and home sales began to soften. Solovieva said younger Canadians have been prioritizing reducing their debt obligations in the face of rising borrowing costs. About 35 per cent of young adults are likely to rent, compared with less than a quarter of older age groups, according to Statistics Canada's 2024 Canadian Social Survey. There may also be other reasons for the drop in mortgage balances among young people. It is possible some younger Canadians are purchasing cheaper homes or own their homes outright, especially if they have received financial gifts from their parents, Solovieva said. Since the total value of real estate assets for younger Canadians has grown since the third quarter of 2022, it suggests more people in this age group are receiving financial help to buy homes than those who may be buying less expensive homes, Solovieva said. In the meantime, older Canadians are taking on more debt, although there is no sign they are taking on more investment properties or renovations to account for this, she said. In fact, Statistics Canada reported recently that households aged 55 to 64 years increased their mortgage balances by more than eight per cent from the first quarter of 2024 to the same period in 2025, while those aged 65 years and older increased their mortgage balances by nearly nine per cent. Older Canadians are expected to pass down $1 trillion to their heirs over the next few years, according to the most recent data from the Chartered Professional Accountants Canada. Many wealth advisers have reported these wealth transfers are already arriving in the form of early inheritances; in most cases to help adult children purchase their first homes. A 2024 Bank of Canada report also found more than 20 per cent of first-time home buyers received gifts to help make their down payments. Younger first-time home buyers were even more likely to receive gifts when purchasing their homes. This could exacerbate an existing trend, Solovieva said. Data show the lowest-income young households have seen their debt-to-income ratio balloon from 244 per cent before the pandemic to 446 per cent in Q1 2025. 'A lot of wealth (is) built through real estate, (so) somebody who is not in the market is left out,' said Solovieva, noting existing homeowners have largely benefited from rising real estate values over time. 'It's basically going to continue on as long as we still have this dynamic of unaffordability.' Solovieva does not expect this trend of waning mortgage balances to entirely reverse in the near future but does anticipate it to level off as immigration levels decline, which could cool growth in housing prices. The latest report from the Canadian Real Estate Association revealed the national average sale price was down 1.3 per cent year-over-year to hit $691,643 in June. • Email: slouis@
CTV News
5 days ago
- Business
- CTV News
Ontario mortgage delinquencies on the rise and could climb higher still, experts warn
A real estate sign is displayed in front of a house in Toronto in this file photo. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Evan Buhler Mortgage delinquencies appear to be on the rise in both Ontario and the Greater Toronto Area and the numbers could get worse as Canada navigates choppy economic waters, experts say. According to data prepared for the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) by Equifax Canada, mortgage delinquencies rose to 0.22 per cent in Ontario for the first quarter of this year. That's up from 0.15 per cent in the first quarter of 2024 and 0.09 per cent in the first quarter of 2023. In Toronto, the mortgage delinquency rate hit 0.23 per cent for the first quarter of 2025. That compares to 0.14 per cent for the first quarter of 2024 and 0.08 per cent for the first quarter of 2023. Specifically, the data tracks the volume of 90-day mortgage delinquencies, which include defaults, but can also refer to late payments. While the rate might not be terribly bad by historical standards, mortgage delinquencies haven't been that high in Toronto since early 2013 and Ontario hasn't seen levels this high since 2016. Equifax reported in February that more than 11,000 mortgages in Ontario recorded a missed payment in the last quarter of 2024. The firm warned that Ontarians are struggling with their mortgages and that mortgage holders are struggling with other forms of debt as well. 'It's concerning,' says Maria Solovieva, an economist at TD Bank. Interest rates, uncertainty are factors Experts say there are two main reasons why mortgage delinquencies are on the rise now. First, the province is seeing a wave of mortgage renewals by people who bought homes with rock-bottom borrowing costs during the pandemic and are now having to renew at higher rates. But in addition to low interest rates, people also had forced savings during lockdown, Solovieva points out. 'So they had these extra funds available for them to put towards repayment,' she says. In that sense, it was predictable that some people might have difficulty making their payments now. 'There's definitely a rise in (delinquencies) associated with coming back to normalcy,' Solovieva says. Jordan Nanowski, CMHC's lead economist for the Greater Toronto Area, agrees. 'I think a rise in delinquencies is expected given that there's a lot of mortgage renewals taking place, so (that) reflects higher mortgage costs,' Nanowski says. The second thing driving up delinquencies, he says, is economic uncertainty finding its way into the labour market. 'There's a lot of economic uncertainty that in itself is already manifesting certain negative impacts,' Nanowski says. 'Especially in certain industries, we're seeing some job cuts and that could be contributing as well. So it's kind of a confluence of the two.' While the data is not clear on this point, Nanowski says the softening of the condo market could well be playing a role in delinquencies if people looking to offload those properties find they are unable to get their money out because of the weaker market. 'There definitely could be individuals that are, let's say, a little bit more tied to their property and if they have issues making payments and they're looking to sell, it's not that easy to sell,' he says. 'So in that type of environment, they might be more likely to be in arrears for longer. So market dynamics are definitely playing a factor there.' Ontario vulnerable as trade war remains unresolved Both Solovieva and Nanowski agree that going forward, Ontario could be in for a rough ride if the ongoing trade war with the United States, sparked by U.S. President Donald Trump's tariff threats, hits the job market. 'We do expect that Ontario specifically will be hit by the trade war a little bit more,' Solovieva says. 'The unemployment rate is already at 7.9 and 7.8 per cent between the two months in May and in June (respectively), so it's larger than average in Canada.' Nationally, unemployment sat at 6.9 per cent in June. 'The economic uncertainty and impacts of potential tariffs could impact employment for a lot of individuals, and that could increase mortgage arrears,' Nanowski says. He points out areas that support industries targeted by the U.S. for tariffs are particularly vulnerable. 'Windsor is probably the most exposed. Same with case Kitchener, Cambridge, Waterloo, St. Catharines, Niagara, Hamilton for steel,' Nanowski says. 'Those are places that mortgage arears might pop up a bit higher if trade tensions and economic uncertainty persist, right? And we're already seeing a bit of impact there. You're seeing some job losses in certain sectors that are more unique to that area.' CMHC could not provide the real number of mortgage delinquencies in Ontario. However, of the nearly 7 million outstanding mortgages in Canada, 0.22 per cent were in arrears in the fourth quarter of last year, according to the corporation. That translates into 15,259 mortgages across the country. Nanowski adds that while the diversified labour market within the Greater Toronto Area is something of a bulwark around Toronto, the GTA is still vulnerable in some places, such as Oshawa, where thousands of jobs are tied to the auto industry. But while there's reason for concern, Solovieva points out that for the time being, mortgage delinquencies still sit at less than a quarter of a percent. 'So it just tells you that, yes, there is strain, especially in those very not affordable regions,' she says. 'But it's not something that will basically, at this point, be a breaking point.' Are you having difficulty making your mortgage payments? CP24 and CTV News Toronto want to hear from you. Email us at torontonews@ with your name, general location and phone number in case we want to follow up. Your comments may be used in a CP24 or CTV News story.
CTV News
09-07-2025
- Business
- CTV News
Mortgage renewals will strain Canadians, but most will manage: TD report
New single family houses billed as estate cottages and townhouses under construction are seen in an aerial view, in Delta, B.C., on Monday, Aug. 12, 2024. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Darryl Dyck TORONTO — A report by TD Bank suggests mortgage renewals are expected to strain Canadian households, but most borrowers will manage albeit with less financial flexibility. The report by economist Maria Solovieva says households who locked in their mortgage for five years in 2020 during the pandemic when interest rates were low are now renewing at much higher rates and will see higher payments. But she says those who took out short-term mortgages last year when rates were high are renewing at much lower rates this year and can expect a drop in payments. That means in aggregate mortgage payments in Canada are actually trending lower, Solovieva writes. So long as rates continue to decline, especially at the long end, national mortgage payments should remain manageable, the report says. But Solovieva notes that the picture for non-mortgage borrowers is more concerning with delinquency rates in this segment climbing. --- This report by The Canadian Press was first published July 9, 2025.
Hamilton Spectator
09-07-2025
- Business
- Hamilton Spectator
Mortgage renewals will strain Canadians, but most will manage: TD report
TORONTO - A report by TD Bank suggests mortgage renewals are expected to strain Canadian households, but most borrowers will manage albeit with less financial flexibility. The report by economist Maria Solovieva says households who locked in their mortgage for five years in 2020 during the pandemic when interest rates were low are now renewing at much higher rates and will see higher payments. But she says those who took out short-term mortgages last year when rates were high are renewing at much lower rates this year and can expect a drop in payments. That means in aggregate mortgage payments in Canada are actually trending lower, Solovieva writes. So long as rates continue to decline, especially at the long end, national mortgage payments should remain manageable, the report says. But Solovieva notes that the picture for non-mortgage borrowers is more concerning with delinquency rates in this segment climbing. This report by The Canadian Press was first published July 9, 2025. Companies in this story: (TSX:TD)
