Latest news with #MarkMalek
Reuters
12 hours ago
- Business
- Reuters
VIEW Wall Street hits record highs after turbulent months
June 27 (Reuters) - The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite reached all-time highs at the opening bell on Friday, bouncing back from a turbulent period sparked by U.S. President Donald Trump's trade policies based on tariffs. The U.S. benchmark stock index (.SPX), opens new tab rose 0.68% to 6,182.7 points, surpassing the previous peak of 6,147.43 reached on February 19, while the Nasdaq (.IXIC), opens new tab went up 0.54%, to 20,274.8, also above its December 16 high of 20,204.58. The indexes' records show a shift in investors' sentiment, amid hopes of interest rate cuts, a U.S.-brokered ceasefire between Israel and Iran, tamed prices and trade deals. Days after Trump's tariffs announcement on April 2, during the so-called "Liberation Day," the Nasdaq tumbled 26.7% from its previous peak, entering a bear market. COMMENTS: JAMES ST. AUBIN, CHIEF INVESTMENT OFFICER, OCEAN PARK ASSET MANAGEMENT, SANTA MONICA, CALIFORNIA: "It's a continuation of this monster rally since early April. It's been quite an improbable comeback, and it continues, assuming that the tariff controversy is no longer a major issue in the psyche of the market." "We're starting to see earnings estimates for the next 12 months on the rise again after taking a little bit of a dip and that's what the market is buying into." "The market assumption is that tariffs will be a very manageable issue.' MARK MALEK, CHIEF INVESTMENT OFFICER, SIEBERT FINANCIAL, NEW YORK: "What we're really witnessing this week is sort of the removal of some of the stumbling blocks that have been placed in the middle of the road. We've had all this trade issues that are still up in the air and we had the big overhang of what was going on in the Middle East." PETER TUZ, PRESIDENT, CHASE INVESTMENT COUNSEL, CHARLOTTESVILLE, VIRGINIA: "Given the uncertainties in the world at the moment, I am surprised. However, one can make the case that the uncertainties are diminishing as the year progresses and that has made people more optimistic about the future." "For a long while this year, we were worried about tariffs. Due to the various negotiations, they don't seem to be as much of a worry as they were a few months ago." "Instead of the Middle East becoming a bigger problem as the bombings occurred, people are coming to think that this is a problem that's off the table now. Inflation under control, doesn't seem like the tariffs have pushed anything up yet. The economy is OK. Seems like there is plenty of money out there to buy things. So why not make an all-time high?" ART HOGAN, CHIEF MARKET STRATEGIST, B RILEY WEALTH, BOSTON: "The driver for that momentum clearly is the dissipation of concerns over the magnitude of tariffs. That was the biggest concern in the early April time frame and I think that headwind seems to be dissipating a bit." "The other piece of the puzzle clearly is getting in and out of that geopolitical shock in a short period of time with a fragile ceasefire that we have now with Israel and Iran has been another positive." "The third thing I think it's that there are several members of the Federal Open Market Committee that are leaning into cutting rates in July versus September." ROBERT PAVLIK, SENIOR PORTFOLIO MANAGER, DAKOTA WEALTH, FAIRFIELD, CONNECTICUT: "Investors have regained confidence and have reassessed the situation with regards to tariffs and to how the president is handling the trade issue and that may be the concerns of tariffs leading to massive inflation and to a collapse of the economy won't come to fruition." "Because of those realizations, investors have regained the confidence to step back into the market and bring back stocks to levels that we were at prior to all this trade (uncertainties)." CAROL SCHLEIF, CHIEF MARKET STRATEGIST, BMO PRIVATE WEALTH, MINNEAPOLIS: "The bottom line (of the indexes' record highs) is: business doesn't need 100% certainty. They just need directional clarity and they're starting to get it. Underlying economics have been solid and, while consumers bear close watching, we suspect the narrative shift and business-friendly aspects of the "One Big Beautiful Bill" plus reduced regulation and amenable capital markets can revive at least some sidelined projects."
The Star
13-06-2025
- Business
- The Star
U.S. stocks tumble as Middle East tensions flare
NEW YORK, June 13 (Xinhua) -- U.S. markets sank on Friday, closing out a volatile week with losses after a dramatic escalation in Middle East tensions rattled global investors. The Dow Jones Industrial Average plunged 769.83 points, or 1.79 percent, to 42,197.79. The S&P 500 fell 1.13 percent to 5,976.97, while the Nasdaq Composite dropped 1.30 percent to 19,406.83. The sell-off accelerated in the afternoon session after the Israel Defense Forces reported that dozens of missiles were launched from Iran, stating "all of Israel is under fire." This followed Israeli airstrikes on Iran, which Tehran called a "declaration of war." The escalating conflict raised fears of broader geopolitical instability that could impact energy markets and global supply chains. Ten of the 11 primary S&P 500 sectors finished in red. Financials and technology were the biggest laggards, falling 2.06 percent and 1.50 percent, respectively. Energy stocks, however, bucked the downtrend, gaining 1.72 percent as crude oil prices spiked on fears of supply disruptions in the Middle East. "This conflict adds challenges to the already sizable collection of worries being maintained by the markets -- those aren't going away. At the bare minimum the spike in crude, if it persists, will have an almost immediate impact on inflation numbers," said Mark Malek, chief investment officer of Siebert Financial. "If crude breaches and holds above the 100-U.S.-dollars (per barrel) mark, we could see U.S. inflation reaccelerate towards 5 percent," according to Phil Carr, head of trading at Britain-based firm GSC Commodity Intelligence. Technology stocks, which have led much of this year's rally, saw widespread losses. Nvidia and Broadcom each fell more than 2 percent, while Microsoft, Apple, Amazon, Alphabet, and Meta Platforms also declined. Tesla rose nearly 2 percent, rebounding after snapping a four-day winning streak Thursday. In economic news, the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index rose to 60.5 in June, well above the 54 forecast by Dow Jones and marking a 15.9 percent jump from May. Despite the encouraging consumer outlook, it was not enough to offset investor anxiety over rising geopolitical risks. With volatility likely to persist, investors will be watching closely next week for developments in the Middle East as well as signals from the Federal Reserve's upcoming policy meeting.
CNA
30-05-2025
- Business
- CNA
Stocks lower but set for strong monthly gain despite tariff uncertainty
NEW YORK :Global stocks were down on Friday but were set to notch a weekly gain as well as the biggest monthly increase since late 2023 despite markets having been roiled by uncertainty over the Trump administration's tariff policies. Sentiments were initially buoyed at the start of the week by signs of an easing of trade tensions between the U.S. and Europe, after President Donald Trump delayed planned tariffs on imports from the EU. Investor focus then shifted to earnings of artificial intelligence chipmaker Nvidia, which later reported better-than-expected results mid-week. But markets were briefly shaken following an unexpected ruling by the U.S. Court of International Trade striking down Trump's so-called Liberation Day tariffs, triggering a court drama that saw an appellate court temporarily reinstate them. "It's been quite a week," said Mark Malek, chief investment officer at SiebertNXT. "Within four days we got a compressed version of what we've had for the entire month, which is the tug of war between forces that drove markets higher last year and the prior year - that being AI and technology growth stocks - and then this looming challenge we have with all these administration tariffs." On Wall Street, all three main indexes were trading lower on the session, dragged by weaknesses in technology, energy and materials stocks. They were, however, set to end the week and the month higher, with the benchmark S&P 500 index poised to snap three straight months of declines. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.14 per cent to 42,155.39, the S&P 500 eased 0.33 per cent to 5,892.70 and the Nasdaq Composite shed 0.57 per cent to 19,065.61. European shares were mostly higher and set for a weekly gain and to add 4 per cent for the month of May. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan closed up 0.72 per cent overnight, ending the week lower but gaining nearly 5 per cent for the month. MSCI's main world index was down 0.24 per cent to 878.15, but was on track to gain more than 1 per cent for the week and more than 5 per cent in May - making it the biggest monthly gain since November 2023. Data showed on Friday that U.S. consumers had increased their spending marginally in April, and the closely-watched Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index rose 0.1 per cent last month, in line with expectations. Trump and Fed Chair Jerome Powell had their first face-to-face meeting on Thursday. Afterwards a Fed statement said: "Powell did not discuss his expectations for monetary policy except to stress that the path of policy will depend entirely on incoming economic information and what that means for the outlook." The yield on benchmark U.S. 10-year notes fell 1.2 basis points to 4.412 per cent. The 30-year bond yield fell 0.3 basis points to 4.9203 per cent. The dollar was higher against major peers including the euro and on track for a monthly gain against the Japanese yen. The dollar weakened 0.01 per cent to 144.18 against the yen, while the euro was down 0.19 per cent at $1.1349. The dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of currencies including the yen and the euro, rose 0.18 per cent to 99.44. It was on track for the fifth straight month of losses, weighed down by tariff uncertainty. Oil prices fell and were headed for a second consecutive weekly loss, as investors weigh a potentially larger OPEC+ output hike for July. Brent crude futures fell 0.44 per cent to $63.87 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude fell 1.1 per cent to $60.27 a barrel. Gold prices slipped as the dollar edged higher. Spot gold fell 0.78 per cent to $3,289.91 an ounce. U.S. gold futures slipped 0.93 per cent to $3,286.40 an ounce.
Yahoo
20-05-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Dip Buyers Race to Stocks as Bond Market Shrugs Off US Downgrade
(Bloomberg) -- Stock traders knew it was an ugly setup entering Monday, with futures lower in premarket action and Treasury yields racing higher after Moody's downgraded the US debt at the very end of last week. America, 'Nation of Porches' NJ Transit Train Engineers Strike, Disrupting Travel to NYC NJ Transit Makes Deal With Engineers, Ending Three-Day Strike NYC Commuters Brace for Chaos as NJ Transit Strike Looms But then a weird thing happened as trading got underway: The bond market calmed down. The yield on 10-year Treasuries, which had leaped the highest since February, began to fall, eventually dropping below where it started the session. That gave small investors in the stock market the all-clear sign to buy the dip, dragging the S&P 500 Index most of the way out of a decline that had reached more than 1% to finish up 0.1%. And with that, the lightning-quick $8.5 trillion rally in US stocks kept running for another day. 'At the moment, the fear of missing the bounce and follow-through is stronger than the prospect of anything going wrong with US's credit rating from late-to-the-table Moody's,' said Mark Malek, chief investment officer at Siebert. 'That does not mean that there is no 'real' risk associated with the downgrade, if something goes wrong with trade negotiations, all bets are off.' Stocks, which are riskier than bonds, are highly sensitive to credit-rating downgrades. When investors get worried about a government's ability to pay its debts, they pull money out of equities and pile into safer assets, which usually means US Treasuries. Many professional investors have sold their equity holdings, leaving the market to the retail crowd. 'There was not a lot of news in the downgrade, and then the bigger dynamic is that many investors are sitting on sidelines so any pullback is leading to dip buying,' said Tom Lee, founder of Fundstrat Capital. Fed Model A variety of impulses were behind Monday's stock market rebound. House Republicans moved a tax-cut bill that's expected to stimulate growth out of committee, bringing it closer to passage in that chamber. A barometer of the cost of US equities versus Treasuries, known as the Fed Model, is signaling that yields can move higher before the damage spills over into the stock market. However, some Wall Street pros question the significance of the measurement. 'The model has been showing that the S&P 500 is undervalued since 2005 no matter what,' said Ed Yardeni of Yardeni Research, who coined the term Fed Model. 'So it kept you in the stock market for sure.' And then there's Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson, who's urging investors to step into any dips in stocks as the odds of a recession have fallen based on the trade truce between the US and China. That sentiment was echoed by strategists at HSBC, who see the US-China trade deal was a game-changer for stocks, adding that sentiment and positioning are sending the 'strongest buy signal in earnest since 2022.' Moody's Ratings downgraded US Treasuries to Aa1 from Aaa after the market close on Friday, citing a deepening concern that ballooning federal debt and deficits will damage America's standing as the preeminent destination for global capital and increase the government's borrowing costs. 'The stock market is immune in the same way that one gets immunity from having survived an illness,' Malek said. 'The market has survived such extremes in the past five years, what we now consider a common cold would have been a plague ten years ago.' Bond yields jumped early Monday, and as of 9 a.m. the 10-year and 30-year had both climbed nine basis points to 4.56% and 5.04%, respectively. But they quickly simmered and kept falling. By the time stocks stopped trading, the 10-year yield was down three basis points to 4.45%, and the 30-year had fallen four basis points to 4.9%. Market's Message 'The downgrade seemed out of touch with the market's message,' said Chris Verrone, head of technical and macro strategy at Strategas Securities. 'What the move in rates is not hitting, at least so far, is cyclicality. We'd be more uncomfortable with yields if this was not the case.' Indeed, strength in cyclical sectors that has been sending a bullish signal for stocks, continued Monday with industrials and consumer staples in the green. The earnings yield on S&P 500 has been sitting below what's offered by 10-year Treasuries since early 2024, a development that before last year was seen in the aftermath of the dot-com bubble. As a general rule, the higher the gap between the payout that stocks offer next to bonds, the better, as investors get compensated for the risk associated with investing in stocks. But the valuation argument is just one factor among many, and abandoning stocks just for that reason would have meant missing out on a 23% rally last year. This is why so many Wall Street pros say the Moody's action doesn't spoil the stock market party, at least not yet. For a more persistent fall in the S&P 500 and risk assets, strategists at HSBC said interest rate expectations need to be climbing higher and the 10-year yield has to rise above 4.7%. 'Until that is the case we'd view any fall in risk assets as an opportunity to scale up exposure,' they wrote in a note to clients. RBC Capital Markets' head of US equity strategy Lori Calvasina said that if the 10-year yield rises to 5.3% or more while stocks' earnings yield stays stable, that would represent a range that has been historically troublesome for the stock market in the past. Whenever the spread between S&P 500 earnings yield and 10-year bond yield fall below -2 percentage points, the equity benchmark drops over the next seven and 12 months. However, for now she said that earnings yield gap is 'still in a favorable range for stocks, but is running out of wiggle room.' Why Apple Still Hasn't Cracked AI Anthropic Is Trying to Win the AI Race Without Losing Its Soul Microsoft's CEO on How AI Will Remake Every Company, Including His Cartoon Network's Last Gasp DeepSeek's 'Tech Madman' Founder Is Threatening US Dominance in AI Race ©2025 Bloomberg L.P. Sign in to access your portfolio
Yahoo
20-05-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Dip Buyers Race to Stocks as Bond Market Shrugs Off US Downgrade
(Bloomberg) -- Stock traders knew it was an ugly setup entering Monday, with futures lower in premarket action and Treasury yields racing higher after Moody's downgraded the US debt at the very end of last week. America, 'Nation of Porches' NJ Transit Train Engineers Strike, Disrupting Travel to NYC NJ Transit Makes Deal With Engineers, Ending Three-Day Strike NYC Commuters Brace for Chaos as NJ Transit Strike Looms But then a weird thing happened as trading got underway: The bond market calmed down. The yield on 10-year Treasuries, which had leaped the highest since February, began to fall, eventually dropping below where it started the session. That gave small investors in the stock market the all-clear sign to buy the dip, dragging the S&P 500 Index most of the way out of a decline that had reached more than 1% to finish up 0.1%. And with that, the lightning-quick $8.5 trillion rally in US stocks kept running for another day. 'At the moment, the fear of missing the bounce and follow-through is stronger than the prospect of anything going wrong with US's credit rating from late-to-the-table Moody's,' said Mark Malek, chief investment officer at Siebert. 'That does not mean that there is no 'real' risk associated with the downgrade, if something goes wrong with trade negotiations, all bets are off.' Stocks, which are riskier than bonds, are highly sensitive to credit-rating downgrades. When investors get worried about a government's ability to pay its debts, they pull money out of equities and pile into safer assets, which usually means US Treasuries. Many professional investors have sold their equity holdings, leaving the market to the retail crowd. 'There was not a lot of news in the downgrade, and then the bigger dynamic is that many investors are sitting on sidelines so any pullback is leading to dip buying,' said Tom Lee, founder of Fundstrat Capital. Fed Model A variety of impulses were behind Monday's stock market rebound. House Republicans moved a tax-cut bill that's expected to stimulate growth out of committee, bringing it closer to passage in that chamber. A barometer of the cost of US equities versus Treasuries, known as the Fed Model, is signaling that yields can move higher before the damage spills over into the stock market. However, some Wall Street pros question the significance of the measurement. 'The model has been showing that the S&P 500 is undervalued since 2005 no matter what,' said Ed Yardeni of Yardeni Research, who coined the term Fed Model. 'So it kept you in the stock market for sure.' And then there's Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson, who's urging investors to step into any dips in stocks as the odds of a recession have fallen based on the trade truce between the US and China. That sentiment was echoed by strategists at HSBC, who see the US-China trade deal was a game-changer for stocks, adding that sentiment and positioning are sending the 'strongest buy signal in earnest since 2022.' Moody's Ratings downgraded US Treasuries to Aa1 from Aaa after the market close on Friday, citing a deepening concern that ballooning federal debt and deficits will damage America's standing as the preeminent destination for global capital and increase the government's borrowing costs. 'The stock market is immune in the same way that one gets immunity from having survived an illness,' Malek said. 'The market has survived such extremes in the past five years, what we now consider a common cold would have been a plague ten years ago.' Bond yields jumped early Monday, and as of 9 a.m. the 10-year and 30-year had both climbed nine basis points to 4.56% and 5.04%, respectively. But they quickly simmered and kept falling. By the time stocks stopped trading, the 10-year yield was down three basis points to 4.45%, and the 30-year had fallen four basis points to 4.9%. Market's Message 'The downgrade seemed out of touch with the market's message,' said Chris Verrone, head of technical and macro strategy at Strategas Securities. 'What the move in rates is not hitting, at least so far, is cyclicality. We'd be more uncomfortable with yields if this was not the case.' Indeed, strength in cyclical sectors that has been sending a bullish signal for stocks, continued Monday with industrials and consumer staples in the green. The earnings yield on S&P 500 has been sitting below what's offered by 10-year Treasuries since early 2024, a development that before last year was seen in the aftermath of the dot-com bubble. As a general rule, the higher the gap between the payout that stocks offer next to bonds, the better, as investors get compensated for the risk associated with investing in stocks. But the valuation argument is just one factor among many, and abandoning stocks just for that reason would have meant missing out on a 23% rally last year. This is why so many Wall Street pros say the Moody's action doesn't spoil the stock market party, at least not yet. For a more persistent fall in the S&P 500 and risk assets, strategists at HSBC said interest rate expectations need to be climbing higher and the 10-year yield has to rise above 4.7%. 'Until that is the case we'd view any fall in risk assets as an opportunity to scale up exposure,' they wrote in a note to clients. RBC Capital Markets' head of US equity strategy Lori Calvasina said that if the 10-year yield rises to 5.3% or more while stocks' earnings yield stays stable, that would represent a range that has been historically troublesome for the stock market in the past. Whenever the spread between S&P 500 earnings yield and 10-year bond yield fall below -2 percentage points, the equity benchmark drops over the next seven and 12 months. However, for now she said that earnings yield gap is 'still in a favorable range for stocks, but is running out of wiggle room.' Why Apple Still Hasn't Cracked AI Anthropic Is Trying to Win the AI Race Without Losing Its Soul Microsoft's CEO on How AI Will Remake Every Company, Including His Cartoon Network's Last Gasp DeepSeek's 'Tech Madman' Founder Is Threatening US Dominance in AI Race ©2025 Bloomberg L.P. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
