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Breakingviews - Why green investors keep getting carried away
Breakingviews - Why green investors keep getting carried away

Reuters

time16 hours ago

  • Business
  • Reuters

Breakingviews - Why green investors keep getting carried away

LONDON, June 26 (Reuters Breakingviews) - To paraphrase Mark Twain, speculative bubbles don't repeat themselves, but they often rhyme. The green technology boom that has imploded over the past three years is remarkably similar to the alternative energy bubble that inflated prior to the global financial crisis of 2008. Both frenzies were driven by investors' unrealistic expectations about how quickly new energy technologies would be taken up. What is now known as the Cleantech 1.0 boom took off in 2005 after the U.S. Congress enacted tax credits for renewable energy. Former Vice President Al Gore's 2006 documentary 'An Inconvenient Truth' raised public awareness of climate change. In early 2007 the venture capital investor John Doerr gave a much-publicised TED talk, opens new tab in which he asserted that 'green technologies – going green – is bigger than the internet. It could be the biggest opportunity of the twenty-first century.' Doerr's firm, Kleiner Perkins, later launched a fund to 'help speed mass market adoption of solutions to the climate crisis.' Many other venture capitalists jumped on the bandwagon. The WilderHill Clean Energy Index, launched in 2004, more than doubled between May 2005 and December 2007. Dozens of startups were launched to invest in batteries, solar, biomass and wind energy. An electric vehicle company, Better Place, established in Silicon Valley in 2007, raised nearly $1 billion to build a network of charging stations. Solyndra, an innovative solar panel manufacturer, attracted a host of big-name investors and later received more than $500 million in loan guarantees from the administration of President Barack Obama. No single factor was responsible for pricking the bubble. The collapse of Lehman Brothers in September 2008 dampened animal spirits; advances in hydraulic fracturing technology led to cheaper U.S. natural gas; Spain and Germany reduced their subsidies for renewable energy; and American solar companies proved unable to compete with subsidised Chinese competitors. Nearly all the 150 renewable energy startups founded in Silicon Valley during the boom subsequently failed, including Solyndra and Better Place. Cleantech venture capital funds launched during the bubble produced negative returns. By the end of 2012 the WilderHill index had fallen 85% from its peak to around 40. By coincidence, that is where the benchmark currently trades. The recent green tech bubble was more extreme. The WilderHill index climbed from 47 in March 2020 to 281 less than a year later. Whereas U.S. venture capitalists spent an estimated $25 billion funding clean energy startups between 2006 and 2011, Silicon Valley splurged more than twice that sum in 2021 alone, according to Silicon Valley Bank. Market valuations were quite absurd. By late 2020, the battery company QuantumScape (QS.N), opens new tab, which came to the market by merging with a blank-check firm, was valued at more than General Motors (GM.N), opens new tab, despite having no sales. The market frenzy is long past. QuantumScape stock is down more than 95% from its peak, while the WilderHill index has fallen 85%. Several listed electric vehicle companies, including truck maker Nikola, have filed for protection from creditors. President Donald Trump's administration is reducing subsidies for renewables and electric vehicles. Oil giants BP (BP.L), opens new tab and Shell (SHEL.L), opens new tab are cutting back their alternative energy investments, just as they did after the Cleantech 1.0 boom. The outcome for green venture capital remains unclear but anecdotal evidence suggests that many funds are now changing hands at steep discounts to their appraised valuations. The common error investors made during both booms was to become entranced by extravagant growth forecasts. In his book, 'More and More and More: An All-Consuming History of Energy', Jean-Baptiste Fressoz criticises the application of the sigmoid function – also known as the S-curve – to predict the course of the energy transition. This model describes the adoption of a new technology as starting out slowly, rapidly gathering pace before eventually levelling off when the market becomes saturated. The United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has used the S-curve in its projections for renewable energy demand and the accompanying decline of fossil fuels. The S-curve was originally discovered a hundred years ago to describe how the population of drosophila flies changes under laboratory conditions. It was later applied, with varying degrees of success, to project human population growth. The American energy scientist M. King Hubbert was the first to use the S-curve to forecast energy production. In the 1950s, advocates for nuclear energy used the model to predict what they believed was the inevitable transition from fossil fuels towards an atomic-powered future. Hubbert also used the S-curve for his famous forecast that U.S. oil production would peak in 1970. Vaclav Smil, a leading energy historian, points out that energy transitions are slow, inherently unpredictable and require extraordinary amounts of investment. Fressoz goes further, claiming that – when energy consumption is viewed in absolute rather than relative terms – there has historically never been a transition. It's true that coal took over from wood as the world's prime energy source in the 19th century, and that later oil and natural gas became dominant. Yet the consumption of all these energy sources continued increasing. The world has never burned more wood than it does today. In absolute terms, coal usage continues to grow. The S-curve has also been used to predict the uptake of various green technologies. As Rob West of Thunder Said Energy, a research firm, observed in a report published last September, both the speed of adoption and the ultimate penetration rate for new inventions are variable. For instance, the demand for refrigerators and television by U.S. households grew very rapidly from the outset, with both reaching penetration rates of nearly 100% in just a few decades. Yet it took more than half a century for gas heating to reach 60% of U.S. households, at which point its market share flatlined. 'It is important not to fall into the trap of assuming that the 'top of the S' is an endpoint of 100% adoption,' writes West. Not long ago, electric vehicles were set to rapidly replace the internal combustion engine, but sales forecasts are now being cut back in developed markets. West anticipates that the eventual market share for battery-powered cars will not surpass 30%. That's a guess. The actual outcome will depend on the state of future technology, which is unknowable. That leaves plenty of scope for green investors to get it wrong again. Follow @Breakingviews, opens new tab on X

Peek Inside ‘Leading Hotels Of The World' With Luxe Travel Book ‘Culture'
Peek Inside ‘Leading Hotels Of The World' With Luxe Travel Book ‘Culture'

Forbes

timea day ago

  • Entertainment
  • Forbes

Peek Inside ‘Leading Hotels Of The World' With Luxe Travel Book ‘Culture'

Page spread featuring Fifth Avenue Hotel, Manhattan, in 'Culture: The Leading Hotels of the World' Luxury hotels must strike a balance between sweeping you into another world and making you feel at home. Discerning travelers want more than amenities, and seek out hotels that preserve and promote culture. Hotelier Alex Ohebshalom worked closely with Swedish interior architect and product designer Martin Brudnizki to transform a 1907 Italian Renaissance Revival bank by McKim, Mead & White that was erected on the former site of a Gilded Age mansion into a pampering and welcoming environment. The collaborators carefully examined the extant arches, moldings, and other mansion features evoking the period of U.S. history from the 1870s to about 1900 which took its name from Mark Twain's lesser-known political novel The Gilded Age: A Tale of Today, co-written with his friend, and fellow essayist and novelist, Charles Dudley Warner, to preserve the best facets of that bygone era while creating a new 'today' for the Fifth Avenue Hotel in Manhattan. While the novel satirizes greed and political corruption in post-Civil War America, Twain – who enjoyed bourbon and was close friends with self-made tycoon Henry H. Rogers – would have been unlikely to refuse an old fashioned from socialite Charlotte Goodridge, who lived in the mansion until her death in 1902. Earlier this month, guests filled The Cellar, a private dining room at the hotel, admiring the walls of geometric marquetry which was popular during the Gilded Age. Enjoying cocktails by The Portrait Bar and passed canape and charcuterie by Chef Andrew Carmellini, as well as a performance by Tony-nominated actress and singer Lorna Courtney, guests indulged in the present moment while the room evoked the past extravagance. 'Culture' and 'Design' books, by Leading Hotels of the World (LHW), in partnership with Phaidon, ... More Monacelli, and New York-based media company The Slowdown, at Fifth Avenue Hotel in New York City. The location was perfect for celebrating the launch of Culture, the second volume in an ongoing travel book series by The Leading Hotels of the World (LHW), following Design, in partnership with Phaidon, Monacelli, and New York-based media company The Slowdown, earlier this month. Ohebshalom and Brudnizki envisioned a character when creating the hotel, a flâneur, or a person who strolls around a city observing the world around them while blending in with the crowd. That is often how travelers want to feel in a new city, aware of the environment and not obviously an outsider. Flâneur Hospitality spent a decade restoring the building, preserving the original brick and limestone Renaissance-style palazzo and magnifying it with a 24-story modern glass tower by Perkins Eastman. Timeless elegance and exceptional service abound as you're greeted by the everpresent but never intrusive hospitality experts at De LEurope Amsterdam. It's hard to imagine a reasonable request that's met with anything less than 'of course!' For example, visiting Amsterdam after attending TEFAF-Maastricht – Europe's crown jewel of art fairs, some 125 miles away in the southernmost part of the Netherlands, close to the borders with Belgium and Germany – demands a continuation of grand tradition. Time after time, De LEurope Amsterdam exceeds expectations. Encounter centuries of history, beginning in 1482, when Emperor Maximilian I ordered the construction of stone walls and a fortress to protect the town from attacks. The main tower, Het Rondeel, stood on the site of present-day De L'Europe Amsterdam. The location's hospitality legacy began in 1638, when an inn was built partly on the foundations of the fort. This simple guest house later adorned the side along the Amstel with a wall decorated with Renaissance flair. After numerous closures and renovations, H. J. Wolters reopened Het Rondeel in1845, as the first hotel in Amsterdam that served and catered to families. Het Rondeel was auctioned to a bank in 1894, and the building remained empty for two years before the Dutch Hotel Company demolished it and built a new hotel. The company agreed to purchase the former Hotel de L'Europe on the Prins Hendrikkade in exchange for the name. Mr. H. Martins, the managing director of the original Hotel de L'Europe was appointed the same role at the new location on the Nieuwe Doelenstraat, which opened in 1896. Throughout the century, the hotel was expanded and refurbished to meet dynamic demands of luxury travelers. Dutch businessman Alfred 'Freddy' Heineken, a leader of the brewing empire created in 1864 by his grandfather Gerard Adriaan Heineken, was a frequent guest of the hotel in the 1950's, and he eventually bought it, making De L'Europe the first and only family-owned luxury hotel in Amsterdam. By 1992, the hotel was remodeled to offer 100 modern rooms, two restaurants, a bar, a terrace on the Amstel river, several halls, a fitness center, a shop, and a business center. Art lovers will appreciate the easy walk to world-leading museums, such as Rijksmuseum, the national museum of the Netherlands dedicated to Dutch arts and history, Stedelijk, a museum for modern art, and contemporary art and design, and the Van Gogh Museum, dedicated to the works of Vincent van Gogh and his contemporaries. Man adjusts painting at De L'Europe. Amsterdam, The Netherlands A comprehensive redesign in 2020 enabled De L'Europe to emerge from the pandemic in its current grandeur. Amsterdam-based interior design firm Nicemakers restyled the rooms, public areas, private event rooms, three restaurants, and the bar, to pay homage to the rich cultural history while boasting contemporary creature comforts. Let Culture serve as your travel companion. The book itself lends to a leisurely study of the world's best hotels, drawing readers into an opulent chair – perhaps a fauteuil or a bergère – while admiring its plush cover. 3-D view of 'Culture', the second volume in an ongoing travel book series by The Leading Hotels of ... More the World (LHW), in partnership with Phaidon, Monacelli, and New York-based media company The Slowdown ''Culture' is as hard to define as 'beauty' or 'taste,' but we know it when we see it,' As Pico Iyer writes in the forward, 'It is that hidden treasure that goes beyond simply seeing the sights and gives us a new pair of eyes.' Culture gives readers exactly that. This compelling volume dives beneath the surface of glamour, offering a deeper, more considered definition of luxury.' If you regard museum-quality masterpieces, works of fine art and design, and high jewelry representing 7,000 years of art history as the epitome of culture, plan your trip to TEFAF-Maaastrict 2026, and book at stay at De L'Europe Amsterdam to continue to your art world journey.

Launches ‘The Writer's Way,' in Which Leading Writers, Novelists, and Poets Explore Cities Across the World Through the Eyes of Their Favorite Authors
Launches ‘The Writer's Way,' in Which Leading Writers, Novelists, and Poets Explore Cities Across the World Through the Eyes of Their Favorite Authors

Atlantic

time3 days ago

  • Entertainment
  • Atlantic

Launches ‘The Writer's Way,' in Which Leading Writers, Novelists, and Poets Explore Cities Across the World Through the Eyes of Their Favorite Authors

The Atlantic announces today ' The Writer's Way,' a new series featuring prominent writers, novelists, and poets, as they explore cities across the world through the eyes of their favorite authors. Each essay captures one of literature's most memorable places, and is accompanied by a sidebar of recommendations for travelers who want to explore the locale for themselves. The series begins with three essays this summer: Caity Weaver reporting from Mark Twain's Paris, published today; Honor Jones reporting from John le Carré's Corfu; and Lauren Groff reporting from Lady Murasaki's Kyoto. For the first entry in the series, staff writer Caity Weaver makes her Atlantic debut, as she flies to Paris in search of modern resonances with Mark Twain's The Innocents Abroad, first published in 1869, around the same time Twain was regularly contributing to The Atlantic. For the essay, Caity visits some of the sites—the Louvre, Versailles—that Twain introduced to many Americans, pursues some side adventures, and matches the author's sense of humor with her own. Caity writes: 'For as long as Paris has existed, a group of people known by many names— derelicts; lollygaggers; scammers; bums —have sought to pass time there at no cost to themselves. Once, some 2,000 years ago, so many such personages (then known as barbarians) came to Paris simultaneously that the city was destroyed. Today, their descendants are politely called writers. One of the most successful to ever do it was a larkish American steamboat operator. In 1866, when he was 31, he convinced a San Francisco newspaper that the crucial thing to do in the lurid gloaming following the Civil War—as Army officials were yet racing to recover human remains before they were eaten by hogs—was to send him on a five-month 'great pleasure excursion' through Europe and the Middle East at the paper's expense. In exchange, he would send back riotous letters describing his trip. And that is how Mark Twain got to Paris.' Caity continues: 'Virtually every living American, save those blind from infancy, has seen images of Paris. There is no need for a civilian to travel there and describe it. And yet, the wastrel, the conniver—the author—must ask: Wouldn't it be best to send one more? Just to be sure? Isn't it possible that dispatching a 21st-century writer to Paris to tramp along in Twain's wake might enhance the modern reader's appreciation of Twain's work by proxy? It's certainly not im possible. Shouldn't we follow this instinct? Mightn't it be flat-out imperative for us to do so? And that is how I got to Paris!' 'The Writer's Way' will continue with Honor's and Lauren's essays this summer, and represents the latest in a major expansion of The Atlantic' s books coverage, including criticism, reporting about the publishing industry, author profiles, and the publication of more original fiction and poetry. Earlier this year, The Atlantic released a major literary project, ' The Best American Poetry of the 21st Century (So Far),' and in September will co-publish the book The Singing Word: 168 Years of Atlantic Poetry, bringing together nearly 100 poems originally published in The Atlantic from its founding in 1857 to 2024. 'The Writer's Way' is supported by Bottega Veneta. Press Contacts: Anna Bross and Paul Jackson | The Atlantic

Disney unveils spectacular plans... including a brand new US theme park
Disney unveils spectacular plans... including a brand new US theme park

Daily Mail​

time3 days ago

  • Entertainment
  • Daily Mail​

Disney unveils spectacular plans... including a brand new US theme park

Disney fans will be overjoyed to learn that Walt Disney World may be introducing a whole new kingdom. A fifth sprawling theme park is reportedly in the works, according to a new Comprehensive Plan 2045 from the Central Florida Tourism Oversight District. The plans detail a reserved development capacity for a 'major theme park' and two 'minor theme parks' to be built over the next few decades. The new park at the Orlando resort could be expansive - mirroring the scale of other popular parks such as Magic Kingdom, Epcot, Disney's Hollywood Studios, and Disney's Animal Kingdom. The documents allotted 400 to 500 acres for the new park which would be Disney's first all-new gate in over 25 years. It is thought that the two smaller parks will be water parks, spanning an estimated 147 acres each. Disney fans have been eager for a new attraction since the last grand opening was Animal Kingdom way back in 1998. Walt Disney World has not officially confirmed a fifth Florida theme park - but has reached out for comment. In a map of the proposal, shared in the Central Florida Tourism Oversight District report, land has been earmarked for various uses. Among them was commercial, conservation, entertainment and hotels. The plan also revealed that the park has requested permission to build underground communication lines and facilities - known to be used by cast members to move around the parks. This latest venture comes after Disney World fans threatened to boycott the theme park after it unveiled the first major details on its upcoming Cars land. The Happiest Place on Earth announced last year that it would be getting rid of Tom Sawyer Island in Magic Kingdom's Frontierland to make way for a new Lightning McQueen-themed area. It has since revealed when it will officially be shut down - and the news has left hoards of Disney fans across the globe outraged. Tom Sawyer Island, as well as the Liberty Square Riverboat ride, will have its final day of operation on July 6, 2025. That means guests only have a little more than a month left to enjoy the serene island inspired by the stories of Mark Twain. Immediately, Disney park-goers took to X, formerly Twitter, to share their heartbreak over the announcement, and some even admitted that they no longer wanted to visit the park. 'Canceling my trip in October and sadly, will never visit that park again,' one user announced. 'This is an abomination and a real disservice to all those who booked summer trips hoping to enjoy all this one more time,' added another. 'Talk about timing. Thankful we enjoyed it recently.' 'Never going back,' someone else wrote. 'I have a lot of happy memories there, and I'll keep them.' 'Huge mistake. Huge,' a fourth tweet read, while a fifth said, 'Largest downgrade.'

Kelly: Damaging lies continue to be spread about the these Dolphins
Kelly: Damaging lies continue to be spread about the these Dolphins

Miami Herald

time4 days ago

  • Entertainment
  • Miami Herald

Kelly: Damaging lies continue to be spread about the these Dolphins

'A lie can travel halfway around the world while the truth is putting on its shoes.' Mark Twain supposedly said that, but there are some sites, sources, pundits who claim the 'Huckleberry Finn' author actually didn't. 'The truth has no defense against a fool determined to believe a lie.' Twain supposedly said that too, but then again, there are sites claiming that the legend of American literature didn't say that either. Who can you believe anymore? I have been a media member for more than half my life, two plus-decades, and my answer would be: 'be careful with who you trust for information.' Or better yet, find credible people [sources] you can trust based on their track record. And in this age of information — all it takes is typing something into a search engine, or asking Chat GPT — it shouldn't be that hard. But it is. And the problem has infiltrated sports as well. 'Someone said that I've slammed Dolphins culture,' offensive lineman Kendall Lamm stated on a rare Instagram post, obviously intended to clear his name from something that began circulating last week. The lie that was stated, and attributed to an ESPN report — which was never produced — was about Lamm allegedly claiming he understands why the Eagles played in two Super Bowls the past three seasons. It supposedly praised Eagles players for never being late, not being toxic and spending 15 minutes after every practice sharing personal struggles to stay mentally sharp. Then it claimed those are all things Lamm never experienced with the Dolphins. 'I enjoyed my time in Miami and it will be near and dear to me forever. When it comes to this article that's being sent, or an article that's published, unless I just completely forgot doing this, it had to be misconstrued or taken out of context because I have nothing but the most respect for everyone in Miami, and the people in Miami know that,' said Lamm, who signed with the Eagles this offseason, and is playing for his sixth team in 11 seasons. 'Things like this really don't bother me. Anyone can come to me and ask me the truth and I'll tell you,' Lamm continued. 'When it comes to culture and all that, bro, don't put me in the middle. Don't try to spin things because you guys feel [someway] about Miami. I loved my time in Miami to tell you the truth. Please, I am not the one. I would never even speak about Miami like that. Never! Never!' Lamm, who started 16 of 33 games he played for Miami as a key reserve on the offensive line the past three seasons, is a straight shooter. I got to know him well the past two seasons, and developed a great deal of admiration for him. If there was an issue, he would speak on it. The fact he wants to distance himself from those made-up words shouldn't be ignored. The sports world knows the Dolphins had a tardiness problem last year because the head coach specifically called his players out about it before their exit interviews, minutes before the team spoke to the press, in an effort to inspire change. The Dolphins, who produced a 8-9 season in a year where quarterback Tua Tagovailoa missed six and a half games because of injuries, turned their back on a ton of veterans this offseason, and have put one of the team's best players [cornerback Jalen Ramsey] on the trading block in an effort to facilitate that culture change. Everyone associated with the team swears they have noticed a change within the locker room. They spoke about it so much, so often this offseason it got annoying. The problem is, we won't know if this culture change is real until adversity hits, which is generally when we see teams splinter, much like last year's Dolphins seemingly did. There's no secret everyone on the football side of the organization is on the hot seat, and everyone in Miami Gardens realizes the Dolphins need to produce a winning record for those in power to stay employed. 'Their positive working relationship is an asset to the Dolphins, and I believe in the value of stability,' owner Steve Ross said in a statement announcing general manager Chris Grier and head coach Mike McDaniel were being retained at the end of the 2024 season. 'However, continuity in leadership is not to be confused with an acceptance that status quo is good enough. And there it is, the 'status quo' won't be good enough. 'We will take a hard look at where we have fallen short and make the necessary changes to deliver our ultimate goal of building and sustaining a winning team that competes for championships,' Ross said. Subsequently, the Dolphins lowered the team's payroll, reduced the team's spending in the offseason, are discussing trading away two of the team's top players (Ramsey and Pro Bowl tight end Jonnu Smith), and pushed toward a youth movement for the first time in McDaniel's tenure. We will soon learn if this speeds up the end of this regime, or fixes the Dolphins. The saddest thing about this South Florida fan base is that many Dolphins fans are pulling for failure in 2025 with the hope that it will lead to a full scale reset, as if that has changed the trajectory of the franchise in the last dozen or so regime and coaching changes since coach Don Shula was pushed out in 1995, and quarterback Dan Marino was forced into retirement in 1999. Mind you, those were also resets lobbied for by most of the Dolphins fan base. Football had changed and Shula couldn't adapt. The franchise needed Jimmy Johnson. Then Marino was past his prime, so it was OK to let Johnson push him into retirement. Whether that's the truth, or fiction depends on your agenda, and the same can be said about the next statement. The 2025 Dolphins have talent — not as much as the 2023 team, but enough to produce a winning season — and will succeed or fail based on Tagovailoa and the roster's health, Tyreek Hill's level of productivity, the effectiveness of the rebuilt offensive line and whether defensive coordinator Anthony Weaver can orchestrate the franchise's third straight top-10 defense. Very little of that has anything to do with the culture of the team, or what a former player says, or doesn't say about the Dolphins organization.

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