Latest news with #MarkusThielen
Yahoo
3 days ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Here Is the Bitcoin Price Level That Could Be an Attractive Entry Point for BTC Bulls
As bitcoin (BTC) holds near its record highs, traders looking to join the uptrend may be facing a dilemma: should they enter now, or wait for a more favorable pullback? According to Markus Thielen, founder of 10x Research, a pullback to the former resistance-turned-support level of the May high, under $112,000, would be the best entry point. "We would prefer to see bitcoin retest its $111,673 breakout level to provide a more favorable risk/reward entry point," Thielen said in a note to clients on Monday. The risk-reward ratio compares the potential loss of an investment to its potential profit, helping traders determine whether the potential gains justify the associated risks. Traders typically target a risk-reward ratio of at least 1:2, necessitating bullish entries close to key support levels, like the $111,673 in BTC's case. It's common for markets to revisit the breakout points before staging bigger bull runs, meaning a potential pullback to $111,673 cannot be ruled out. As of writing, BTC traded flat at around $119,500, having risen over 1% on Sunday amid reports that the U.S. had reached the largest-ever trade deal with the European Union. But what if the meaningful pullback doesn't unfold? In that case, the best entry would be above $120,000, marking a breakout above the trendline connecting July 14 and July 23 highs. "A break above the descending trendline, particularly a sustained move above $120,000, could justify re-engaging with the trend, though it would warrant unusually tight stop-losses," Thielen said. Sign in to access your portfolio
CNBC
6 days ago
- Business
- CNBC
Bitcoin posts back-to-back weekly losses, and Coinbase suffers five-day slide: CNBC Crypto World
On today's episode of CNBC Crypto World, bitcoin slips to end the week and also experiences its first back-to-back weekly loss since early June. And, Markus Thielen, the CEO of 10x Research, breaks down what factors are weighing on bitcoin's price.
Yahoo
6 days ago
- Business
- Yahoo
'Wall Streetization' of Bitcoin: BTC Volatility Index and the S&P 500 VIX Boast Record 90-Day Correlation
New statistical evidence has emerged, suggesting that bitcoin's (BTC) market dynamics are now intricately linked to the ebb and flow on Wall Street. Recently, the 90-day correlation coefficient between bitcoin's 30-day implied volatility indices – Volmex's BVIV and Deribit's DVOL – and the S&P 500 VIX hit a record high of 0.88, according to data source TradingView. A positive correlation of 0.88 indicates that the two variables are closely tied. As of Wednesday, the correlation stood at 0.75. The VIX represents the 30-day implied or expected price turbulence in Wall Street's equity index, the S&P 500. The strengthening correlation suggests that BTC's implied volatility indices are evolving into fear gauges, similar to the VIX, which typically falls during bull runs and rises during sell-offs. The BVIV has crashed from roughly 67% to 42% this year, moving in the opposite direction of BTC's price, which has risen by 26%. Historically, BTC and its implied volatility tended to move in tandem. Meanwhile, the VIX has dropped 11% this year, while the S&P 500 index has gained over 8%. According to Markus Thielen, founder of 10x Research, growing institutional participation in the crypto market, characterized by volatility sellers, is behind the collapse in BTC implied volatility and the resulting record correlation with the VIX. Volatility selling involves writing out-of-the-money (OTM) calls to generate an additional income on top of the spot market holdings. Some traders also write OTM puts. "This bitcoin cycle continues to be dominated by Wall Street participants, who are actively compressing volatility," Thielen told CoinDesk. "Rather than speculating directionally, many institutional players are selling call options to generate additional yield—mirroring traditional equity income strategies. As a result, directional flows tend to follow broader risk-on/risk-off dynamics familiar to legacy markets," Thielen added. Thielen added that the institutional framework has contributed to BTC's growing correlation with the U.S. equities, "particularly as hedge funds and asset managers increasingly apply the same macro playbook across both asset classes." Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Yahoo
7 days ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Bitcoin traders pile $868m into bets that price will exceed $140,000 by September
Bitcoin traders are piling into outsized bets that its price will rise above $140,000 by the end of September. Data from crypto derivatives exchange Deribit shows more than $868 million worth of September call options at that strike price. Calls are bullish option bets that the price of the underlying asset will exceed the strike price upon the contract's expiry, which in this case is $140,000 by September 26. Such implicit bullish bias signals a strong belief in Bitcoin's upward momentum, just as Bitcoin broke past $112,000 on Wednesday, to log a new all-time high. Earlier this month, several market watchers predicted that Bitcoin was primed for a big price push in July. Markus Thielen, CEO of 10x Research, predicted that Bitcoin could reach $116,000 while Bitwise analysts forecasted an even bigger price push to $136,000 in July. Bitcoin traders share the same conviction, as even short-dated contracts show similar bullish bias. Traders are betting Bitcoin will exceed $120,000 by the end of July, based on data from Deribit. 'July will test markets, but Bitcoin looks built for it,' Roshan Roberts, CEO of OKX US, told DL News. Roberts said big-money players are increasingly adopting Bitcoin as a macro hedge and that altcoins failing to mount a significant recovery is also adding to Bitcoin's shine. Illia Otychenjo, lead analyst at a crypto exchange, previously predicted that $64 billion in capital could shift from altcoins to Bitcoin this quarter. For many market watchers, there are several reasons to be bullish about Bitcoin, even if crypto volumes will dwindle during the summer months. Corporate treasuries are growing fonder of Bitcoin, and that could add steady buying pressure. In the last 30 days alone, at least 21 companies have announced plans to deploy about $3.5 billion into their Bitcoin treasuries. This all-time high comes while there is still a lot of money sidelined and waiting to be deployed,' Mauricio Di Bartolomeo, co-founder of Ledn, a Bitcoin lending firm, told DL News. 'If this trend continues, we may see Bitcoin price move higher from here.' The expectation of an imminent Bitcoin surge may also be boosted by traders pricing in interest rate cuts by the end of the quarter. Data from the CME FedWatch tool shows a 63% chance the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates by September. Lower interest rates are usually a boon for investments in risk-on assets like Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies. Osato Avan-Nomayo is our Nigeria-based DeFi correspondent. He covers DeFi and tech. Got a tip? Please contact him at osato@
Yahoo
16-07-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Ether Races 6% Against Bitcoin as GENIUS Act Puts Spotlight on Yield-Bearing Stablecoins: Analyst
Ethereum's native token ether (ETH), is gaining ground against bitcoin (BTC), as the impending GENIUS Act is likely to ban yield-bearing stablecoins that promise interest-like returns, according to Markus Thielen, founder of 10x Research. The Binance-listed ether-bitcoin ratio, representing ether's BTC-denominated price, rose over 5.96% to 0.02670 on Tuesday, registering its best performance since May 13, according to data source TradingView. The upswing marked a bullish resolution to the multi-week range play and suggests continued ether outperformance ahead. Ether's dollar-denominated price rose over 4%, topping $3,100 for the first time since February. According to Markus Thielen, founder of 10x Research, the key driver for ether's price surge is seemingly the growing anticipation that the GENIUS Act, or the U.S. stablecoin bill, will pass, restricting U.S. stablecoin issuers from paying interest. "That would potentially reinforce Ethereum's importance within the digital asset ecosystem," Thielen said in a client note shared with CoinDesk. Thielen added that the GENIUS Act has put the spotlight on Ethena's $5 billion synthetic dollar USDe, which achieves delta-hedging or cash and carry arbitrage by shorting perpetual futures equivalent to the amount of ETH received from users as collateral. That's how it generates yield on USDe. The long-prevailing theory is that the shorting operation adds to bearish pressures in the futures market and caps basis, the gap between futures and spot prices. "Ethena currently represents about 4% of Ethereum's $26 billion open interest, and by consistently selling futures, it has exerted downward pressure on ETH prices," Thielen said. Ethena has already reached out to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to seek clarity on synthetic dollars, such as the USDe. The team reportedly argued that the synthetic dollar functions as a payment instrument rather than a security and falls outside the scope of the GENIUS Act and the STABLE Act, which regulate payment stablecoin issuers. Ethena is headquartered in Lisbon, Portugal, with new dollar inflows primarily coming from outside the U.S. So, it remains to be seen how it fits the evolving regulatory picture in the U.S. "If Ethena were to comply with the U.S. stablecoin bill, it could be forced to stop buying Ethereum altogether. However, the market may be interpreting this dynamic differently—ENA-USDT continues to rally, supported by rising Ethereum funding rates," Thielen said, adding that the USDe is not offered in the U.S. and so Ethena is not at risk. Ethena has earned a total revenue of nearly $300 million over the past 12 months, trailing behind Tether, Ethereum, Circle and Solana, according to data source TokenTerminal. The protcol has also earned a fee revenue of $15 million in one month. "Ethena is performing exceptionally well with the rise in funding rates, which is encouraging numerous hedge funds to set up funding arbitrage strategies. We anticipate this will translate into increased inflows for Ethereum ETFs," Thielen told CoinDesk. The GENIUS Act, which got the Senate approval in June with bipartisan support, is expected to head for a floor vote in the House by Thursday. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
