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Miami Herald
5 days ago
- Business
- Miami Herald
Social Security's 2026 COLA on track to break a 29-year trend
On July 15, 2025, the Bureau of Labor Statistics released the latest CPI numbers. That's a really boring sentence, but the numbers are actually extremely important and should be very interesting to Social Security retirees. That's because the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Technical Workers (CPI-W) is used to determine the Cost of Living Adjustment (COLA) that retirees will receive in 2026. That's better known as the annual Social Security benefits increase, or the raise that Social Security retirees get in most years. Don't miss the move: Subscribe to TheStreet's free daily newsletter The Social Security Administration looks at changes to a basket of goods and services that is included in the consumer price index. The average changes to CPI-W are calculated in the third quarter of the year, and that's the raise retirees get on their Social Security benefits. Since the June numbers are the first ones to be released from this third quarter's data, they provide a very important glimpse into what next year's raise may look like. And based on those numbers from July 15, the 2026 Social Security COLA is on track to do something it has not done in 29 years. The July CPI data showed that the Consumer Price Index rose 2.7% on an annual basis, while the CPI-W numbers showed a 2.6% year-over-year increase. While it's the CPI-W numbers on which COLAs are based, experts are also making projections for what the CPI numbers will look like for the next two months, which are also included in the benefit calculation. Related: Millions of Medicare beneficiaries could see major price shock Based on those projections, the Senior Citizens League has predicted a 2.6% benefits increase next year, up from the 2.5% raise predicted last month. Independent Social Security and Medicare policy analyst Mary Johnson, however, is projecting a 2.7% bump. Regardless of which of these is right, however, the COLA is about to buck a 29-year trend. That's because, for the first time since 1996, the COLA is going to be above 2.5% for five consecutive years. This is a once-in-a-generation shift for today's retirees, and it is not something that most people will probably see again in their lifetime. If the COLA comes in as projected, Social Security is going to hit a major milestone. For the first time since 1996, retirees are going to see a COLA that has been equal to or above 2.5% for five years running. Here's what the recent COLAs have looked like: 2021: 5.9%2022: 8.7%2023: 3.2%2024: 2.5%2026: 2.6% or 2.7% (projected) And the last time the COLAs had a five-year streak where they were at 2.5% or higher was from 1993 to 1996. Here were the COLAs during that time period: 1992: 3.0%1993: 2.6%1994: 2.8%1995: 2.6%1996: 2.9% That period in the 1990s was actually part of a decades-long streak of high COLAs due to high inflation. Since that time, however, there has not been another five-year period when raises were so high. In fact, there were several years in the mid-2000s when COLAs were under 1.00%. Related: Jean Chatzky sends strong message on 401(k)s, Social Security While it may seem, in theory, that five years of raises are good for retirees, that's very much not the case. In fact, this has been a tough period for seniors due to the significant inflation resulting from the fallout of the Covid pandemic. High inflation is not good for people on a fixed income with conservative portfolios, which fits the description of most retirees. More on retirement: Dave Ramsey offers urgent thoughts about MedicareJean Chatzky shares major statement on Social SecurityTony Robbins has blunt words on IRAs,401(k)s Still, seniors on Social Security can expect a record-breaking raise this year. Hopefully it will be the last one that's so high as inflation comes under control. Related: Veteran fund manager unveils eye-popping S&P 500 forecast The Arena Media Brands, LLC THESTREET is a registered trademark of TheStreet, Inc.
Yahoo
15-07-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Social Security 2026 COLA estimated at 2.7%, but much of it will go to Medicare Part B
Social Security recipients could get a 2.7% raise next year, up from last month's estimate of 2.5%, based on the latest inflation report, according to a new estimate. The Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W), the index used to calculate the annual adjustment to Social Security benefits, gained 2.6% in June. Overall inflation rose 2.7% from May's 2.4% increase. The Federal Reserve's inflation goal is 2%. A cost-of-living adjustment, or COLA, is meant to help Americans keep up with inflation so they can maintain their standard of living year to year. But the hikes are falling short, especially when Medicare premiums, alone, are rising at a faster clip, seniors say. That happened in 2025 and is set to do so again next year. 'It's not uncommon for Part B premiums to consume much or even all of the annual COLA, leaving little extra to cover other big cost increases,' says Mary Johnson, an independent Social Security and Medicare policy analyst. Medicare Part B costs are rising several times faster than its average rate of increase in recent years. According to the 2025 Medicare Trustees annual report released in June, the Medicare Part B premium for 2026, is expected to increase to $206.50 from $185.00 in 2025 for a jump of $21.50 per month, or 11.6%. That's the largest Part B increase since 2022 when it rose 14.5%. The Social Security Administration automatically deducts the Part B premium cost from Social Security benefits for most Medicare recipients. A bigger Medicare bite means monthly checks will shrink. 'Medicare recipients are quick to point out that Part B premiums can frequently take much or even all of the annual COLA, leaving little extra to cover other big cost increases, such as housing or groceries,' Johnson said. If COLA rises by 2.7%, which is in line with the average 2.6% increase over the past 21 years, and Medicare Part B increases by 11.6%, those with the lowest Social Security benefits would hurt the most. "If the COLA in 2026 is 2.7%, a Part B premium jump of $21.50 would take the entire COLA of beneficiaries who receive around $800 or less," Johnson said. "This is especially the case for all individuals who receive a low Social Security retirement, spousal, or widow or widower's benefit." The Social Security Administration bases its COLA each year on average annual increases in the consumer price index for urban wage earners and clerical workers (CPI-W) from July through September. That means July inflation numbers will be especially important to pay attention to. The index for urban wage earners largely reflects the broad index the Labor Department releases each month, although it sometimes differs slightly. Last month, the overall consumer price index rose 2.7% and the index for urban wage earners increased 2.6%. In May, 74.269 million people received Social Security, according to the Social Security Administration. These beneficiaries include retired workers, disabled workers, survivors of deceased workers, and those receiving Supplemental Security Income (SSI). The average monthly benefit was $1,860.64 in May. Medora Lee is a money, markets, and personal finance reporter at USA TODAY. You can reach her at mjlee@ and subscribe to our free Daily Money newsletter for personal finance tips and business news every Monday through Friday. This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Social Security 2026 COLA estimated up 2.7%. What about Medicare?
USA Today
15-07-2025
- Business
- USA Today
Social Security 2026 COLA estimated at 2.7%, but much of it will go to Medicare Part B
Social Security recipients could get a 2.7% raise next year, up from last month's estimate of 2.5%, based on the latest inflation report, according to a new estimate. The Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W), the index used to calculate the annual adjustment to Social Security benefits, gained 2.6% in June. Overall inflation rose 2.7% from May's 2.4% increase. The Federal Reserve's inflation goal is 2%. A cost-of-living adjustment, or COLA, is meant to help Americans keep up with inflation so they can maintain their standard of living year to year. But the hikes are falling short, especially when Medicare premiums, alone, are rising at a faster clip, seniors say. That happened in 2025 and is set to do so again next year. 'It's not uncommon for Part B premiums to consume much or even all of the annual COLA, leaving little extra to cover other big cost increases,' says Mary Johnson, an independent Social Security and Medicare policy analyst. How fast are Medicare premiums rising? Medicare Part B costs are rising several times faster than its average rate of increase in recent years. According to the 2025 Medicare Trustees annual report released in June, the Medicare Part B premium for 2026, is expected to increase to $206.50 from $185.00 in 2025 for a jump of $21.50 per month, or 11.6%. That's the largest Part B increase since 2022 when it rose 14.5%. The Social Security Administration automatically deducts the Part B premium cost from Social Security benefits for most Medicare recipients. A bigger Medicare bite means monthly checks will shrink. 'Medicare recipients are quick to point out that Part B premiums can frequently take much or even all of the annual COLA, leaving little extra to cover other big cost increases, such as housing or groceries,' Johnson said. Who hurts the most? If COLA rises by 2.7%, which is in line with the average 2.6% increase over the past 21 years, and Medicare Part B increases by 11.6%, those with the lowest Social Security benefits would hurt the most. "If the COLA in 2026 is 2.7%, a Part B premium jump of $21.50 would take the entire COLA of beneficiaries who receive around $800 or less," Johnson said. "This is especially the case for all individuals who receive a low Social Security retirement, spousal, or widow or widower's benefit." How is COLA calculated? The Social Security Administration bases its COLA each year on average annual increases in the consumer price index for urban wage earners and clerical workers (CPI-W) from July through September. That means July inflation numbers will be especially important to pay attention to. The index for urban wage earners largely reflects the broad index the Labor Department releases each month, although it sometimes differs slightly. Last month, the overall consumer price index rose 2.7% and the index for urban wage earners increased 2.6%. How many people receive Social Security benefits? In May, 74.269 million people received Social Security, according to the Social Security Administration. These beneficiaries include retired workers, disabled workers, survivors of deceased workers, and those receiving Supplemental Security Income (SSI). The average monthly benefit was $1,860.64 in May. Medora Lee is a money, markets, and personal finance reporter at USA TODAY. You can reach her at mjlee@ and subscribe to our free Daily Money newsletter for personal finance tips and business news every Monday through Friday.
Yahoo
11-07-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
The Social Security Board of Trustees Just Updated Its 2026 Cost-of-Living Adjustment (COLA) Forecast. Here's How Much Your Benefits Could Increase.
The annual Social Security COLA is based on inflation during July, August, and September. The Board of Trustees files a report with Congress every year, including a forecast for the COLA. Expectations for the annual cost of living adjustment have climbed since last year's report. The $23,760 Social Security bonus most retirees completely overlook › One of the most important pieces of Social Security retirement benefits is the annual cost-of-living adjustment, or COLA. Without the COLA, many seniors would face significant shortfalls in their retirement budgets as prices for housing, healthcare, and groceries increase over time. Over the last few years, as inflation has reared its ugly head, many retirees have come to rely more and more on the annual COLA. While we're still months away from the official announcement for next year's COLA, multiple analysts have published their best estimate for what kind of pay bump retirees could receive next year. Estimates from The Senior Citizen's League and independent analyst Mary Johnson both put the number at 2.5% in their most recent reports. The Social Security Board of Trustees, the people in charge of the trust fund and who report on the financial status of the program to Congress, have their own estimate they publish once per year. They just published their 2025 annual report, and they have a new COLA estimate for 2026 that differs from the third-party estimates. The annual COLA figure is released around the same time every year in the second week of October. That's because the COLA is based on data collected over the summer between July and September. Specifically, it's based on the year-over-year increase in a measure of inflation called the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers, or CPI-W. Every month, the Bureau of Labor Statistics surveys thousands of prices around the country for everything from apples to water bills. To calculate the CPI-W, each price is weighted by its relative portion of a standard budget for a working-age city dweller. The results are usually compiled and published by the second week of the following month. The Social Security COLA is based on the average year-over-year increase in the CPI-W during the third quarter of the year, which ends in September. When the September CPI-W number gets published in October, the Social Security Administration is able to announce the COLA that will go into effect for benefits payments that begin the following January. When the Social Security Board of Trustees publishes its annual report, it includes multiple estimates for the COLA. There's a high-cost, low-cost, and intermediate estimate. These are based on the net cost of each scenario to Social Security based on both outflows (benefits payments) and inflows (tax revenue). The high-cost estimate is actually the case where the COLA is lowest. While Social Security will pay out less in benefits in that case, low inflation will also curb how much wages rise and in turn how much Social Security will collect in revenue. And since there are more workers paying into Social Security than retirees collecting benefits, a super low inflation environment can be bad for the overall health of Social Security. The board updates its COLA estimates each year along with its full outlook for Social Security and if and when the program will deplete its trust fund. Here are its 2026 COLA estimates from May 2024 and its most recent update from June 2025. Case May 2024 June 2025 High-cost 1.8% 2.4% Intermediate 2.2% 2.7% Low-cost 3% 3% Source: Social Security Administration. As you can see, the board has raised its estimate for the 2026 COLA significantly since last year. It's worth pointing out that many analysts, not just the trustees, expected inflation to fall faster than it has since last year. The Federal Reserve has tried to tame inflation by keeping rates higher for longer. At the start of last year, investors were thinking the Fed would cut rates by 150 basis points by the end of 2024. It only cut 100 basis points, and it signaled fewer-than-expected rate cuts this year, too. On top of that, there's a growing amount of uncertainty driven by the Trump administration's constantly changing trade policies and ongoing conflicts in Europe and the Middle East. As such, there's a good chance we see a pickup in inflation this summer, pushing the COLA higher. That said, the trustees' intermediate estimate for the 2025 COLA was 2.6%, but retirees only ended up with a 2.5% bump. So, it's possible the trustees are overestimating how much prices will increase this summer. As things stand, though, Social Security beneficiaries should expect to see a bump somewhere between 2.4% and 3% based on all the data available. If you're like most Americans, you're a few years (or more) behind on your retirement savings. But a handful of little-known could help ensure a boost in your retirement income. One easy trick could pay you as much as $23,760 more... each year! Once you learn how to maximize your Social Security benefits, we think you could retire confidently with the peace of mind we're all after. Join Stock Advisor to learn more about these Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. The Social Security Board of Trustees Just Updated Its 2026 Cost-of-Living Adjustment (COLA) Forecast. Here's How Much Your Benefits Could Increase. was originally published by The Motley Fool
E&E News
27-06-2025
- Health
- E&E News
Wildfire smoke alters human immune system — study
Exposure to wildfire smoke can affect the human immune system, according to a new study that adds to mounting evidence of the potential health risks posed by increasingly larger and prolonged blazes. The study, published Thursday in the journal Nature Medicine, is billed as the first to examine the specific cellular changes stemming from smoke inhalation. In looking at two roughly equal groups of people, researchers at Harvard University's T.H. Chan School of Public Health found that those exposed to wildfire smoke registered an increase in a type of immune cells tied to long-term protection against disease-causing pathogens. They also showed changes in 133 genes related to allergies and asthma, according to a news release summarizing the results. Advertisement 'Our findings demonstrate that the immune system is extremely sensitive to environmental exposures like fire smoke, even in healthy individuals,' said Mary Johnson, principal research scientist in the school's Department of Environmental Health and the study's lead author, in the release.
