Latest news with #MattGertken
Bloomberg
30-06-2025
- Business
- Bloomberg
Markets Face New Bout of Volatility, Says BCA's Gertken
Global financial markets are facing a new bout of volatility, according to Matt Gertken, Chief Geopolitical and US Politics Strategist at BCA Research. The US President's tariffs are causing concern, he says, and although the shock may not be as bad as April, the economic impact will be felt. He spoke with Dani Burger on Bloomberg Brief. (Source: Bloomberg)
Yahoo
30-06-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Markets Face New Bout of Volatility, Says BCA's Gertken
Global financial markets are facing a new bout of volatility, according to Matt Gertken, Chief Geopolitical and US Politics Strategist at BCA Research. The US President's tariffs are causing concern, he says, and although the shock may not be as bad as April, the economic impact will be felt. He spoke with Dani Burger on Bloomberg Brief. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
New Statesman
18-06-2025
- Business
- New Statesman
Will Iran inflict oil inflation on the West?
Fire and smoke rise into the sky after an Israeli attack on the Shahran oil depot in Tehran. PhotoMeetings are best avoided, as a rule. They take up valuable time, they achieve little, and they're often just a pretext for one person's terrible idea to be foisted on everyone else. And every now and then, a meeting takes place that sets world history on a dramatic and frightening new course. On 16 October 1973, the oil-producing nations of the Opec cartel met at the Sheraton Hotel in Kuwait City and agreed to almost double the price of crude oil. In doing so they divided the world along new lines. Economic growth in the West was effectively halved, while the autocracies from which the oil came – Saudi Arabia, Russia – received huge, long-term increases in their current accounts. The US, UK and Europe have spent decades trying to recapture the glory days before that fateful meeting, to rebuild the Western consumer dream that cheap energy had bought – using cheap labour (offshoring, globalisation, historic levels of immigration) and cheap money (privatisation, financialisation, historic levels of borrowing). From a single meeting, the modern dichotomy between oil-rich dictators and debt-laden democracies was agreed. Of course, the 1973 meeting was really just when the petrostates chose to exercise the power that Western dependence on oil gave them. It was retribution for America's support for Israel in the Yom Kippur War that October; unable to triumph in battle, Opec turned instead to the oil weapon. Now, as then, Iran may decide that Israel's military success will be paid for with inflation and recession in the West. This is made possible by geography. On Iran's southern coast the Persian Gulf narrows to a channel, 21 nautical miles across at its thinnest, through which 20 million barrels of oil and more than ten billion cubic feet of liquefied natural gas (LNG) are shipped each day. If Iran begins attacking ships in the Strait of Hormuz, it could threaten a fifth of the world's supply of oil and LNG. Ukraine's recent drone attack on Russian bombers demonstrated the power of relatively cheap, easily hidden hardware to wreak havoc on larger targets. Mines, drones and missiles in the strait could effectively close energy exports from Qatar and Kuwait, while exports from Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Iraq and Oman would be restricted. Buyers around the world – especially in China, which buys Iranian oil and Qatari gas – would rush to secure new supply, pushing prices up. Matt Gertken, chief strategist at BCA Research, and Ben May, director of global macro research at Oxford Economics, both predict a major spike in the oil price, which could almost double to around $130 per barrel if Iran decided to block the strait. The result for Britain, the US and the eurozone would be higher inflation – and therefore higher interest rates to tame it – coupled with lower growth. The effects would be felt first at the petrol station, then in costlier shopping. Oil and gas are not just oil and gas – they are the plastic that most of the things we buy are made from or packaged in (or both); they are also fertiliser and heat and refrigeration and delivery. The price of energy is the price of pretty much everything, from goods made in Chinese factories to produce grown on British farms. In the UK, people, businesses and the government itself are still feeling the effects of the energy price shock of 2022. Our economy has been nudged even closer to recession by Trump's tariffs. The consequence of a doubling of the oil price would, says Gertken, 'very likely be a global recession'. At time of writing, the markets didn't seem particularly fussed about this suggestion; after a brief spike following Israel's initial attack on Iran on 13 June, the oil price had begun to decline again. Optimists point to the 'tanker war' of the 1980s, in which 55 ships were sunk or significantly damaged by Iran and Iraq, but which did not cause an oil shock. But Gertken says this is a 'mispricing' of the risk, because Israel is not just targeting Iran's nuclear programme but its domestic energy infrastructure. It is, he says, aiming not only to defang Iran's military but to cause unrest and regime change, to depose its 86-year-old Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei. The current Iranian regime therefore has little to lose by escalating a situation in which Israel is already an unrestrained aggressor, and Iran has shown an appetite for targeting international shipping through proxy groups such as the Houthis in Yemen. Gertken puts the likelihood of a major oil shock at 50 per cent. Subscribe to The New Statesman today from only £8.99 per month Subscribe Who wins from this? While drivers in the US would be dismayed by prices at the petrol pump, Americans would be relatively well insulated from the shock because the US is the world's biggest producer of fossil fuels and a net exporter of energy. Russia, too, would benefit from a higher oil price, because fossil fuel exports are a major component of the Kremlin's revenues. China and Europe, which rely more on manufacturing, are far more exposed to a slump in global demand. Faced with another wave of inflation, European countries might find it harder to impose sanctions on Russian energy, and a ceasefire on Vladimir Putin's terms might become more likely. Global politics will continue to be redrawn – crudely, messily, and in black – until we can give up our fatal addiction to oil. [See also: Labour needs to be honest about tax rises] Related
Yahoo
14-06-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Iran's strikes may expand to U.S. bases- Fars News Agency
-- Iran's military officials stated that strikes against Israel will continue and may expand to include U.S. bases in the region in the coming days, according to a Saturday report from Iran's Fars news agency, which is one of Iran's main semi-official news agencies and seen as closely affiliated with Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). "This confrontation will not end with last night's limited actions and Iran's strikes will continue, and this action will be very painful and regrettable for the aggressors," Fars reported, citing senior military officials. The officials were quoted saying that the war would "spread in the coming days to all areas occupied by this (Israeli) regime and American bases in the region." These statements come as tensions between Iran and Israel escalated on Saturday after Israel conducted what was described as its biggest-ever air offensive against Iran. Israel's strikes were reportedly aimed at preventing Iran from developing a nuclear weapon. "Investors should hold gold, build up some cash, tactically overweight US equities relative to global, and prepare for at least minor oil supply shocks – possibly major shocks – as the Israel-Iran war escalates," BCA Geopolitical Strategist Matt Gertken wrote in a note to clients. Both countries continued targeting each other on Saturday, raising concerns about a potential wider conflict in the Middle East. According to local reports in Israel, at least three people were killed by Iranian strikes and dozens injured. 'We suspect that safe-haven assets will be well supported in the coming days, as markets brace for additional retaliatory attacks and the possibility of a wider conflict," Matthew Ryan, Head of Market Strategy at global financial services firm Ebury, said. Related articles Iran's strikes may expand to U.S. bases- Fars News Agency Canadian support for U.S. counter-tariffs fades as trade war drags - Bloomberg US Treasury sells $22B 30-Year Treasuries in solid auction as demand improves
Business Recorder
30-05-2025
- Business
- Business Recorder
Indian benchmarks end May with gains as investors wait for growth data
India's benchmark indexes edged lower on Friday but logged a third straight monthly gain, supported by steady institutional inflows and earnings momentum despite geopolitical and trade concerns. The Nifty 50 rose 1.7% in May to 24,750.70, while the BSE Sensex gained 1.5% to 81,451.01; both indexes are up around 12% since March but remain about 6% below their September 2024 record highs. Domestic growth data, due after markets close, likely picked up pace in the January–March quarter, driven by stronger rural demand and increased government spending. Markets wavered early in May following a flare-up in tensions with Pakistan but rebounded after both nations agreed to a ceasefire. 'The de-escalation eases some of the foreign investor concerns, paving the way for sustained inflows,' said Matt Gertken, chief geopolitical strategist at BCA Research. FPIs bought about $2.6 billion worth of Indian shares in May, the highest since September 2024. Financials, IT stocks weigh on Indian equity benchmarks Global sentiment improved as the U.S. reached a 90-day tariff truce with China and advanced trade negotiations with the U.K. Talks between India and the U.S. also progressed, with New Delhi aiming to clinch a deal during the truce period. 'The trajectory now hinges on corporate earnings, economic growth data after market close, and the RBI's upcoming policy decision next week,' said Anil Rego, founder of Right Horizons PMS. The broader small-caps and mid-caps jumped 8.7% and 6.1%, respectively. On Friday, the Nifty fell 0.33% and Sensex lost 0.22% as the Nifty IT dropped after a U.S. court reinstated broad Trump-era tariffs. Still, the IT index ended May higher, while metals also posted strong gains. Among individual stocks, Bharat Electronics jumped 22.5% in May, its best in a year, helped by the government's defence indigenisation push and strong March quarter earnings.
