Latest news with #MattOrton
Economic Times
16-07-2025
- Business
- Economic Times
Cooling CPI offers relief, but Fed rate cut may wait until fall: Matt Orton
India plays an important role in tariff development. It will be interesting to see if there is anything related to pharmaceuticals in any sort of tariff agreement, trade deal that is struck between India and the US. Tired of too many ads? Remove Ads Tired of too many ads? Remove Ads "So, you have got a decent macro backdrop in the US. We are seeing consumers healthy based on the results we are getting from banks so far and inflation is starting to come down. Granted, all those tariff impacts are not part of that, but it is still much better than we thought it was going to be," says Matt Orton I do not know if this gives the Fed the reason to start to lower rates immediately, but it should be encouraging for investors. Rates in the US can lower. It has always been my expectation that the Fed would start to cut rates once we get into the fall into September and beyond. And what we are seeing is that we are at least the tariffs that have been imposed so far in the US have not been as inflationary as a number of economists have have been able to manage those costs. And if we do end up getting deals, which it seems like President Trump is really pushing to start accelerating the level of deals that are struck, that should be constructive for the inflationary outlook going forward. So, you have got a decent macro backdrop in the US. We are seeing consumers healthy based on the results we are getting from banks so far and inflation is starting to come down. Granted, all those tariff impacts are not part of that, but it is still much better than we thought it was going to India is going to be very specific to sectors most likely. The US probably would like to see energy similar to Indonesia, commitments to energy purchases from the US, that is something that is doable. I also think seeing commitments with respect to defence cooperation that could be something that ends up as part of these deals. But also, with respect to at least openness of a market. It does not mean that the US has to be competitive in the Indian market but at least having the attempt of US company to be able to compete in the automotive space. Tesla launching the Teslas in India. that is a positive step forward that should also give Trump confidence that India is serious about these deals.I do not think they are going to be that competitive in the Indian market, but at least they can be on a similar level playing field and we will see a trade deal that has the spirit of that behind it and that would be very encouraging for the market because that will at least get rid of one of the uncertainty that is out there and then we as investors can really just focus on the fundamentals more at the micro level knowing that the macro backdrop is going to be a little bit more stable going forward at least with respect to potential disruptions at the government pharma tariffs are definitely going to come. Trump has been serious about this. He has talked about it and kind of accelerated his rhetoric towards pharmaceutical tariffs . It is going to be a negative event for the larger pharma companies in the US your Merck, your Pfizer, companies like that. Healthcare has been an area that has been more challenging across the world to invest in.I would say the companies around the world that are most at risk due to the pharmaceutical tariffs are likely going to be the major pharmas in the US and in Europe, that is going to be the concentration of where there can be challenges to the earnings growth setup going plays an important role in tariff development. It will be interesting to see if there is anything related to pharmaceuticals in any sort of tariff agreement, trade deal that is struck between India and the at the end of the day, India plays an important role. You cannot just go cold turkey immediately. There is going to be have some sort of draw down period and that will give cover to some of the Indian pharmaceutical companies that do play a really critical role in the supply chain for pharmaceuticals overall.
Time of India
16-07-2025
- Business
- Time of India
Cooling CPI offers relief, but Fed rate cut may wait until fall: Matt Orton
Live Events (You can now subscribe to our (You can now subscribe to our ETMarkets WhatsApp channel "So, you have got a decent macro backdrop in the US. We are seeing consumers healthy based on the results we are getting from banks so far and inflation is starting to come down. Granted, all those tariff impacts are not part of that, but it is still much better than we thought it was going to be," says Matt Orton I do not know if this gives the Fed the reason to start to lower rates immediately, but it should be encouraging for investors. Rates in the US can lower. It has always been my expectation that the Fed would start to cut rates once we get into the fall into September and beyond. And what we are seeing is that we are at least the tariffs that have been imposed so far in the US have not been as inflationary as a number of economists have have been able to manage those costs. And if we do end up getting deals, which it seems like President Trump is really pushing to start accelerating the level of deals that are struck, that should be constructive for the inflationary outlook going forward. So, you have got a decent macro backdrop in the US. We are seeing consumers healthy based on the results we are getting from banks so far and inflation is starting to come down. Granted, all those tariff impacts are not part of that, but it is still much better than we thought it was going to India is going to be very specific to sectors most likely. The US probably would like to see energy similar to Indonesia, commitments to energy purchases from the US, that is something that is doable. I also think seeing commitments with respect to defence cooperation that could be something that ends up as part of these deals. But also, with respect to at least openness of a market. It does not mean that the US has to be competitive in the Indian market but at least having the attempt of US company to be able to compete in the automotive space. Tesla launching the Teslas in India. that is a positive step forward that should also give Trump confidence that India is serious about these deals.I do not think they are going to be that competitive in the Indian market, but at least they can be on a similar level playing field and we will see a trade deal that has the spirit of that behind it and that would be very encouraging for the market because that will at least get rid of one of the uncertainty that is out there and then we as investors can really just focus on the fundamentals more at the micro level knowing that the macro backdrop is going to be a little bit more stable going forward at least with respect to potential disruptions at the government pharma tariffs are definitely going to come. Trump has been serious about this. He has talked about it and kind of accelerated his rhetoric towards pharmaceutical tariffs . It is going to be a negative event for the larger pharma companies in the US your Merck, your Pfizer, companies like that. Healthcare has been an area that has been more challenging across the world to invest in.I would say the companies around the world that are most at risk due to the pharmaceutical tariffs are likely going to be the major pharmas in the US and in Europe, that is going to be the concentration of where there can be challenges to the earnings growth setup going plays an important role in tariff development. It will be interesting to see if there is anything related to pharmaceuticals in any sort of tariff agreement, trade deal that is struck between India and the at the end of the day, India plays an important role. You cannot just go cold turkey immediately. There is going to be have some sort of draw down period and that will give cover to some of the Indian pharmaceutical companies that do play a really critical role in the supply chain for pharmaceuticals overall.
CNBC
16-06-2025
- Business
- CNBC
Lean into long-term secular trends not impacted by near-term uncertainty: Raymond James' Orton
Matt Orton, Raymond James chief market strategist, joins 'Power Lunch' to discuss the strategist's thoughts on equity investors, tactical advice and much more.
Economic Times
03-06-2025
- Business
- Economic Times
Weaker dollar and emerging market flows support a bullish case for India: Matt Orton
Tired of too many ads? Remove Ads Tired of too many ads? Remove Ads "What companies are doing now is we have kind of gone through all of the inventories they had already stocked up, but companies are taking advantage of this pause to manage and restock some inventories in advance of some of these tariffs or what might be negotiation up and down with respect to where the rates ultimately fall," says Matt Orton , Raymond James is definitely a risk, but when you are looking at tariffs now, so you had this 90-day reprieve, July 9th, is the day at which we need to have some sort of trade deals put in place. So, what companies are doing now is we have kind of gone through all of the inventories they had already stocked up, but companies are taking advantage of this pause to manage and restock some inventories in advance of some of these tariffs or what might be negotiation up and down with respect to where the rates ultimately at the end of the day, the American consumer can bear some of that weight. Corporate margins are close to record highs right now. Those margins can compress a little bit to eat perhaps some of what those tariffs might look like. So, a lot of it can be taken on by the overall economy. The economy is definitely going to slow, but I think that was a base case heading into this were running at an above trend rate for a long time. So, my expectation even absent tariffs was that we were going to see a slowdown. But the key is that we have avoided recession, with the walk back with respect to tariff policy, all of those scenarios are off the table and that is good enough to support growth, nominal GDP growth, that can support you are already seeing that. So, weaker dollar has certainly benefited emerging markets and you have seen flows move into emerging markets from the US in particular. There is a case for US dollar to remain weak for the rest of this year especially as you see tariffs start to take effect. So, you will have the interplay of a persistently weaker dollar to help emerging markets, I think that supports the overall economy and if you have commodity prices, especially oil, that is fairly well supplied around the rest of the world, that again provides a support for growth in a market like India. So, there is a lot of longer-term supportive tailwinds to make the more bullish case for India absent all of the global uncertainty that might be one of my longer-term holdings is in one of the most successful holdings we have had, has been ICICI Bank , that has just been a compelling investment. I like the story with respect to growth, net interest margins, and also the private banking side as well that continues to grow. It is leveraged to a lot of the long-term growth themes in India. So, that has been a really exciting opportunity and it still looks very attractive despite the gains so far this is true. So, that is one of the reasons I do not like China as a long-term investment is, there is still a lot of state-owned enterprises and plus then you have on top of that the risk of what the central government is going to do. You do not have that in India where there is not a dictator who rules the country and sets what companies can or cannot do and state-owned enterprises are just less efficient inherently. So, when you look at like SBI versus an ICICI Bank , there is a clear difference with respect to where loan growth is going, asset quality credit mix. So, again, the private banking side at least right now is still a much more attractive place to be.
Time of India
03-06-2025
- Business
- Time of India
Weaker dollar and emerging market flows support a bullish case for India: Matt Orton
"What companies are doing now is we have kind of gone through all of the inventories they had already stocked up, but companies are taking advantage of this pause to manage and restock some inventories in advance of some of these tariffs or what might be negotiation up and down with respect to where the rates ultimately fall," says Matt Orton , Raymond James Investment. In general, the view is tariff impact would be felt in the second half of this calendar year, which is that is the time you will actually start seeing the effect of the tariff. Right now, it is a sugar rush because everybody in a sense consumed more or loaded more ahead of tariff. Is that a real risk? Matt Orton: There is definitely a risk, but when you are looking at tariffs now, so you had this 90-day reprieve, July 9th, is the day at which we need to have some sort of trade deals put in place. So, what companies are doing now is we have kind of gone through all of the inventories they had already stocked up, but companies are taking advantage of this pause to manage and restock some inventories in advance of some of these tariffs or what might be negotiation up and down with respect to where the rates ultimately fall. But at the end of the day, the American consumer can bear some of that weight. Corporate margins are close to record highs right now. Those margins can compress a little bit to eat perhaps some of what those tariffs might look like. So, a lot of it can be taken on by the overall economy. The economy is definitely going to slow, but I think that was a base case heading into this year. We were running at an above trend rate for a long time. So, my expectation even absent tariffs was that we were going to see a slowdown. But the key is that we have avoided recession, with the walk back with respect to tariff policy, all of those scenarios are off the table and that is good enough to support growth, nominal GDP growth, that can support earnings. But coming back to India, we do have a historical trend which in a sense has endorsed that every time when there is a little bit of problem in the developed market and when there is weakness in the currency, which is dollar index, flows they come back to into emerging markets . Will the script play out again? Matt Orton: So, you are already seeing that. So, weaker dollar has certainly benefited emerging markets and you have seen flows move into emerging markets from the US in particular. There is a case for US dollar to remain weak for the rest of this year especially as you see tariffs start to take effect. So, you will have the interplay of a persistently weaker dollar to help emerging markets, I think that supports the overall economy and if you have commodity prices, especially oil, that is fairly well supplied around the rest of the world, that again provides a support for growth in a market like India. So, there is a lot of longer-term supportive tailwinds to make the more bullish case for India absent all of the global uncertainty that might be around. Live Events So, other than infra, any other opportunities you are scouting for when it comes to India? Where is it that you have your largest exposure here sectorally? Matt Orton: So, one of my longer-term holdings is in one of the most successful holdings we have had, has been ICICI Bank , that has just been a compelling investment. I like the story with respect to growth, net interest margins, and also the private banking side as well that continues to grow. It is leveraged to a lot of the long-term growth themes in India. So, that has been a really exciting opportunity and it still looks very attractive despite the gains so far this year. In general, the belief is that global investors do not like PSUs, government-dominated stocks. Is that true for you as well? Matt Orton: It is true. So, that is one of the reasons I do not like China as a long-term investment is, there is still a lot of state-owned enterprises and plus then you have on top of that the risk of what the central government is going to do. You do not have that in India where there is not a dictator who rules the country and sets what companies can or cannot do and state-owned enterprises are just less efficient inherently. So, when you look at like SBI versus an ICICI Bank , there is a clear difference with respect to where loan growth is going, asset quality credit mix. So, again, the private banking side at least right now is still a much more attractive place to be.
