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Yahoo
6 hours ago
- Sport
- Yahoo
MLB Starting Pitcher News: Tyler Glasnow's sinker, Logan Gilbert's new arm slot
It's Wednesday, which means it's time for us to visit the bump on Hump Day and discuss starting pitcher news. Each week in this article, I'll be taking a deeper look at a few trending/surging starting pitchers to see what, if anything, is changing and whether or not we should be investing in this hot stretch. The article will be similar to the series I ran for a few years called Mixing It Up (previously Pitchers With New Pitches and Should We Care?), where I broke down new pitches to see if there were truly meaningful additions that changed a pitcher's outlook. Only now, I won't just look at new pitches, I can also cover velocity bumps, new usage patterns, or new roles. However, the premise will remain the same: trying to determine if the recent results are connected to any meaningful changes that make them worth investing in or if they're just mirages. Each week, I'll try to cover change for at least four starters and give my clear take on whether I would add them, trade for them, or invest fully in their success. Hopefully you'll find it useful, so let's get started. 2025 Fantasy Baseball Top 300 update: Aaron Judge tops the rankings, Drake Baldwin soars Luke Keaschall and Kirby Yates return to the top 300 this week, while David Robertson debuts. Matthew Pouliot , Tyler Glasnow - Los Angeles Dodgers (New Arm Slot, Sinker Usage) Tyler Glasnow came off the injured list on July 9th and has allowed two runs (one earned) on six hits in 11 innings, while striking out 11 and walking four. The four-seam fastball velocity has been ticking back up over 97 mph, and the whiffs appear to be there, even if the command remains a bit spotty. However, one of the big things I noticed when I went to look at his game logs on the Pitcher List site (thanks to Nick Pollack for the tip) is that Glasnow has really begun to lean into his sinker since returning to the mound. In truth, Glasnow was leaning into the sinker more in the two starts before landing on the injured list, with a 25.6% usage over those four starts. That's a big increase on the 18% usage he has if you just look at season-long numbers. So how do we feel about Glasnow throwing the sinker more? Well, for starters, we have to point out that this is not just an attack plan for right-handed hitters. In the two starts since returning from the break, Glasnow has used the sinker 27.4% of the time to lefties and 26% of the time to righties. Against lefties, he's using it 50% of the time early in counts and keeping it high in the zone 50% of the time. However, instead of attacking up and away, he's throwing a lot of inside sinkers, with a 55% inside rate to lefties. I understand the plan in theory, but Glasnow doesn't have great command of the sinker. His 45% zone rate against lefties in those two starts is below average, as is his 60% strike rate. However, he has posted a 25% called strike rate and a 10% swinging strike rate (SwStr%) on that pitch to lefties, so perhaps his plan is more about swings and misses and less about inducing weak contact. Glasnow's sinker is about one mph slower than his four-seam fastball but has nearly 12 inches of arm-side run and just 12.5 inches of induced vertical break (iVB), while his four-seam fastball has only 1.4 inches of arm-side run and nearly 16 inches of iVB. If lefties think they're getting an inside four-seam fastball but instead get a sinker that runs back over the plate 11 more inches, it could lead to some ugly swings. Against righties, Glasnow has come off the IL and thrown the sinker 54% of the time early in counts but also used it 23% of the time in two-strike counts and has seen it post a strong 33.3% PutAway Rate, which measures how often a two-strike pitch results in a strikeout. He's using the sinker all over the strike zone, vertically speaking, to right-handed hitters, but actually keeping it on the outside part of the plate 46% of the time. That's, again, another strategy that is not as common with a sinker, and I'm not sure it's working too much with a 7% SwStr% and 15% called strike rate. I'd love to see him get that sinker inside to righties more, but I should note that both of his games since coming off the IL were against the Brewers, who have a lot of left-handed hitters, so this may simply be an attack plan for one team; however, the increased sinker usage is something that we should expect to continue. One of the consequences has been that it has led to a decrease in curveball usage, which is interesting because it's one of Glasnow's best swing-and-miss pitches, with a 17% SwStr% on the season, but he really struggles to command it. Perhaps using the curve less often, and keeping it more to two-strike counts, will help him get ahead of hitters more often. Maybe the curve also puts some strain on his arm. Just something for us to consider. Another change that I noticed with Glasnow when I looked at Alex Chamberlain's Pitch Leaderboard is that he has dropped his arm angle almost four degrees. That may not seem like much, but it's a sizable change and likely why he has gained more horizontal movement on his sinker. Similarly, the lower arm slot has also led to more "rise" on his four-seam fastball and given him a much flatter vertical attack angle. If he gets the command of that pitch back to where we've seen it in the past, that could be a nice boost for him. Similarly, his slider has picked up an inch of horizontal movement, likely due to the lower arm angle, but the command of the pitch is off this season, with a 10% lower zone rate, so the pitch has not been as effective. At the end of the day, Glasnow is still a bit rusty from his injuries, and his command is not where we'd like it to be, but these new changes are interesting. Leaning more into two fastball variations has become the norm in the league, so it's nice to see Glasnow following suit; however, we'll have to see if he can rack up as many strikeouts when he uses his curveball less than he has before, and we'll have to see if he can start jamming those sinkers inside to righties. Logan Gilbert - Seattle Mariners (New Arm Slot, Splitter Usage/Shape, Cutter Usage) Heading into the All-Star break, Logan Gilbert seemed on the verge of putting the pieces together after some inconsistent results following his return from the IL. I ranked him as my 8th overall starting pitcher in my updated rankings and said, "Gilbert has battled injury this season and has a 3.39 ERA in his 61 innings. That being said, his K-BB% and his SIERA are second-best of any starting pitcher in baseball with at least 30 innings pitched this season. We know how talented Gilbert is when he's healthy, so I'm just betting on Gilbert 'figuring it out' over the final two-plus months." Well, the figuring it out might have started on Tuesday, when he threw 6.1 scoreless against the Brewers, allowing two hits and no walks while striking out 10. It was a fastball-dominant showing from Gilbert, who was able to get 72% strikes on the pitch and then induce six whiffs on his slider and another seven whiffs on his splitter. It was also another start where Gilbert seemed to be paring down his arsenal. As you can see from Alex Chamberlain's Pitch Leaderboard above, Gilbert came into this season and scrapped the cutter that he used 11% of the time last season. Over the last few starts, he has also rarely thrown his sinker. He threw it 12 times in his first start off the IL on June 16th and then has thrown it just six times TOTAL in his last six starts, including none on Tuesday. That means we're looking at a four-pitch mix for Gilbert now instead of a six-pitch mix. Getting rid of the cutter isn't a bad idea for Gilbert. Last season, he used the pitch 7% of the time against right-handed batters and 14% of the time against left-handed batters. Overall, it was a pitch he commanded in the zone well and induced above-average swinging strike rates on, but it did give up a 45% ICR that was a 29th percentile rate in baseball. The pitch was more effective for him against lefties, even though it gave up more hard contact, so if he was going to get rid of it, he needed a clear plan to attack lefties. That plan seems to be leaning on his splitter more often. Gilbert's splitter usage is up to 21% on the season from 13% last year, and his usage to lefties specifically is up to 20.6% after being at 14.5% last year. We've also seen a slight change to the shape and velocity of his splitter. This year, the pitch is over two mph slower with less horizontal break across the plate and almost two inches more drop. Essentially, it's moving down and away from lefties more often, which we like to see. As a result, the splitter has been downright nasty this year against lefties, posting a 34% SwStr% and .056 batting average allowed. It has also not allowed a single barrel or batted ball that qualifies as Ideal Contact on 111 pitches to lefties this season. Gilbert is using the pitch 72% of the time in two-strike counts to lefties, with a 31% PutAway Rate, which is a clear improvement from his 59% usage in two-strike counts to lefties last year and 22% PutAway Rate. The final change for Gilbert, which may also be connected to the shape change on his splitter, is that Gilbert has dropped his arm angle by over six degrees. Now, we could say that's him compensating for his injury, but considering the arm angle change has remained even after he's come back healthy, I think it's a conscious decision. We've seen many pitchers drop their arm angle to a more comfortable slot this year, and if Gilbert has gotten rid of his cutter, then he has one less pitch that he needs to stay on top of. He might simply be pitching from a more natural arm angle. However, there have been a few consequences. He now has a lower arm slot but the same iVB on his fastball, which has led to an even flatter fastball with a higher adjusted vertical approach angle. His locations have been getting better in his starts since coming off the IL, and the fastball is starting to play up a little more. I would just like to see him get it up in the zone more often. He also has minor movement changes on his other pitches, but has seen a better overall strike rate this year and the best first pitch strike rate of his career, so perhaps the arm slot is helping him with that command and control. All said, we know Gilbert is talented, so his figuring it out is not a surprise, but it's nice to see that paring down his arsenal is actually working for him. Having that slider, four-seam, and splitter to lefties has been enough for him, so he doesn't miss the cutter and can focus on his better pitches. 2025 Fantasy Baseball: 60 Undervalued Players, from Jasson Domínguez to Bo Bichette 60 undervalued players to help you win your fantasy league. Matthew Pouliot , Joe Ryan - Minnesota Twins (New Curveball, Splitter Usage, Sinker Usage) Nine starts ago, Joe Ryan threw a curveball in a game for the first time since 2022. He only threw one, and then in his next start, he also only threw one. However, that usage has started to tick up a bit in recent outings, with a 5.4% usage over his last seven starts, and even a 9.1% usage in his last start. Over those seven starts, Ryan has been electric, with a 2.08 ERA, 0.85 WHIP, and 50/8 K/BB ratio. That's a pretty impressive line considering Ryan has yet to establish a clear secondary pitch behind his four-seam fastball. At some points, it's been the sweeper or the splitter, and now it's been the sinker with the curve creeping up in usage. So how is this new curveball usage working for Ryan? He's using it to both righties and lefties, with a 5% usage to lefties over seven starts and a 6% usage to righties. Lefties get it primarily as an early in the count strike pitch, with a 64.3% early usage, while righties see the curve 57% of the time in two-strike counts. It has just a 16.7% PutAway Rate to righties, so it hasn't been super successful in those counts, but it does have a 28.6% SwStr% in a small sample size against righties, so maybe it will work in the long run. He has better-than-league-average zone rates and strike rates on the curveball to lefties, so it works as a strike pitch there, even if it has been getting hit hard at times. The introduction of the curveball has maybe taken some of the emphasis away from the splitter, which Ryan has thrown only 8% of the time over his last seven starts, with a 13% usage to lefties. Before that June 14th start, Ryan was throwing the splitter 15.4% of the time overall in 13 starts, but 23.3% of the time to lefties, so that's a 10% decrease in usage. It's a change you can start to understand when you see that, against lefties specifically, Ryan's splitter had a 7% worse zone rate than last year, 10% worse strike rate, 3% worse SwStr%, and allowed a 6% higher ICR. Essentially, everything about the splitter to lefties was worse this season than it was last season. It wasn't a bad pitch, but it was a fairly mediocre one. Ryan has instead turned to the slider more against lefties over his last seven starts, and while it also doesn't miss many bats, he can command it in the zone better, and it's allowed just an 8.3% ICR to lefties on the season. If you look at just these last seven starts, Ryan has begun using the slider and curve early in the count to lefties while using the splitter and four-seam more in two-strike counts. That has allowed the four-seam to play up and post a 23% PutAway Rate to lefties over the last seven starts, up from 19% in his first 13 starts. The final change is that he has increased his sinker usage recently. In his first 13 starts, he used it 9.7% of the time overall and 14.3% of the time to righties. That has changed to a 12.7% usage overall and 16% usage to righties and shifted even more in his last five starts, where he has a 15.3% sinker usage overall and 22% to righties. Over those five starts, the sinker is his second most-used pitch to tighies, with the slider and sweeper both sitting around 13% usage. He uses the sinker early in the count to righties and likes to keep it low and mostly out over the plate. Ryan has been able to pound the zone with the sinker, with strong zone rates and strikes over the last seven starts, and very little hard contact allowed. He will mix the pitch in with two strikes, and it does have a 26% PutAway Rate to righties over the last five starts, probably because most righties are expecting his four-seam and get a pitch that has five inches more run and significantly less "rise" as it approaches the plate, so hitters swing over it. I don't believe these changes make him a drastically different pitcher, but I do think changing his approach against lefties was a smart decision. Ryan is still searching for a legit secondary weapon, and it's scary to think of how good he might be if he were actually able to find one. Until then, he remains a fringe top-ten starter in fantasy baseball, which isn't so bad. Brandon Pfaadt - Arizona Diamondbacks (Cutter Usage) We've seen Brandon Pfaadt do this before. He adds in a new pitch or changes his pitch mix for a time and goes on a strong stretch of production, only to falter and start searching for a new plan. We saw it earlier this year with his curveball usage, and then, after I covered his struggles in early June, we're now seeing it again with the introduction of a cutter. In his June 17th start in Toronto, Pfaadt unveiled his cutter for the first time. He threw just four of them, and we weren't sure if it was a real change or a misclassification or just him experimenting. He threw five in his next start in Coors and then bumped that up to 11 cutters when he returned home to face the Marlins. Since he introduced the cutter into his pitch mix, he's registered a 3.50 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, and 35/5 K/BB ratio in 36 innings. That's also been against some decent offenses like the Blue Jays, Padres, Giants, and Cardinals, and also one start in Coors Field. All in all, not bad. But will it stick this time? In those six games, he has thrown 57 cutters, and only eight have been to righties, so this is certainly a plan to attack lefties. Much like the early-season increase in curveball usage was designed to do. He's using the cutter 71.4% of the time early in counts to lefties, and the few times he does throw it in two-strike counts, it's not often leading to strikeouts. He has a 51% zone rate on the pitch against lefties, which is essentially league average, but has a 91st percentile strike rate. It also allows a 94% contact rate with just a 4% SwStr%, so this is by no means a swing and miss pitch. This is a pitch that thrives on inducing weak contact, and gets it with just a 6.3% ICR allowed. A lot of that has to do with how well he's able to jam lefties inside, with an 80% inside rate against lefties and 72% of those cutters coming either middle-in and up-and-in. That's a strategy that can work and has been working for Pfaadt. Part of the reason it's working is because Pfaadt's four-seamer has been pretty bad this season, so he needs to start throwing it less. On the year, the four-seamer has just an 8.2% SwStr% with a 53% ICR and 19% barrel rate allowed. Both lefties and righties have hit his four-seamer hard, and he has struggled to command it in the zone against both as well. Pfaadt has leaned into his sinker as his primary fastball against righties, with his sweeper being his most-used pitch overall to them, and he's now turning to the cutter more against lefties while also mixing in the sinker, changeup, and four-seam. Against lefties overall since adding in the cutter, Pfaadt is allowing a .179 average and .305 xwOBA with just a 30% ICR. He does have just a 6.4% SwStr% and 17% strikeout rate against them, but as long as lefties aren't crushing Pfaadt, this can help because his sweeper allows him to post a 30% strikeout rate to righties. Overall, I still think Pfaadt, even with these changes, is just a 23-25% strikeout rate pitcher who will have an ERA around 3.70 or higher, but that will play as a low-upside option in shallow formats and a solid back-end starter in deeper formats.
NBC Sports
15 hours ago
- Sport
- NBC Sports
MLB Starting Pitcher News: Tyler Glasnow's sinker, Logan Gilbert's new arm slot
It's Wednesday, which means it's time for us to visit the bump on Hump Day and discuss starting pitcher news. Each week in this article, I'll be taking a deeper look at a few trending/surging starting pitchers to see what, if anything, is changing and whether or not we should be investing in this hot stretch. The article will be similar to the series I ran for a few years called Mixing It Up (previously Pitchers With New Pitches and Should We Care?), where I broke down new pitches to see if there were truly meaningful additions that changed a pitcher's outlook. Only now, I won't just look at new pitches, I can also cover velocity bumps, new usage patterns, or new roles. However, the premise will remain the same: trying to determine if the recent results are connected to any meaningful changes that make them worth investing in or if they're just mirages. Each week, I'll try to cover change for at least four starters and give my clear take on whether I would add them, trade for them, or invest fully in their success. Hopefully you'll find it useful, so let's get started. Matthew Pouliot, Tyler Glasnow came off the injured list on July 9th and has allowed two runs (one earned) on six hits in 11 innings, while striking out 11 and walking four. The four-seam fastball velocity has been ticking back up over 97 mph, and the whiffs appear to be there, even if the command remains a bit spotty. However, one of the big things I noticed when I went to look at his game logs on the Pitcher List site (thanks to Nick Pollack for the tip) is that Glasnow has really begun to lean into his sinker since returning to the mound. Pitcher List In truth, Glasnow was leaning into the sinker more in the two starts before landing on the injured list, with a 25.6% usage over those four starts. That's a big increase on the 18% usage he has if you just look at season-long numbers. So how do we feel about Glasnow throwing the sinker more? Well, for starters, we have to point out that this is not just an attack plan for right-handed hitters. In the two starts since returning from the break, Glasnow has used the sinker 27.4% of the time to lefties and 26% of the time to righties. Against lefties, he's using it 50% of the time early in counts and keeping it high in the zone 50% of the time. However, instead of attacking up and away, he's throwing a lot of inside sinkers, with a 55% inside rate to lefties. I understand the plan in theory, but Glasnow doesn't have great command of the sinker. His 45% zone rate against lefties in those two starts is below average, as is his 60% strike rate. However, he has posted a 25% called strike rate and a 10% swinging strike rate (SwStr%) on that pitch to lefties, so perhaps his plan is more about swings and misses and less about inducing weak contact. Glasnow's sinker is about one mph slower than his four-seam fastball but has nearly 12 inches of arm-side run and just 12.5 inches of induced vertical break (iVB), while his four-seam fastball has only 1.4 inches of arm-side run and nearly 16 inches of iVB. If lefties think they're getting an inside four-seam fastball but instead get a sinker that runs back over the plate 11 more inches, it could lead to some ugly swings. Against righties, Glasnow has come off the IL and thrown the sinker 54% of the time early in counts but also used it 23% of the time in two-strike counts and has seen it post a strong 33.3% PutAway Rate, which measures how often a two-strike pitch results in a strikeout. He's using the sinker all over the strike zone, vertically speaking, to right-handed hitters, but actually keeping it on the outside part of the plate 46% of the time. That's, again, another strategy that is not as common with a sinker, and I'm not sure it's working too much with a 7% SwStr% and 15% called strike rate. I'd love to see him get that sinker inside to righties more, but I should note that both of his games since coming off the IL were against the Brewers, who have a lot of left-handed hitters, so this may simply be an attack plan for one team; however, the increased sinker usage is something that we should expect to continue. One of the consequences has been that it has led to a decrease in curveball usage, which is interesting because it's one of Glasnow's best swing-and-miss pitches, with a 17% SwStr% on the season, but he really struggles to command it. Perhaps using the curve less often, and keeping it more to two-strike counts, will help him get ahead of hitters more often. Maybe the curve also puts some strain on his arm. Just something for us to consider. Another change that I noticed with Glasnow when I looked at Alex Chamberlain's Pitch Leaderboard is that he has dropped his arm angle almost four degrees. That may not seem like much, but it's a sizable change and likely why he has gained more horizontal movement on his sinker. Alex Chamberlain's Pitch Leaderboard Similarly, the lower arm slot has also led to more 'rise' on his four-seam fastball and given him a much flatter vertical attack angle. If he gets the command of that pitch back to where we've seen it in the past, that could be a nice boost for him. Similarly, his slider has picked up an inch of horizontal movement, likely due to the lower arm angle, but the command of the pitch is off this season, with a 10% lower zone rate, so the pitch has not been as effective. At the end of the day, Glasnow is still a bit rusty from his injuries, and his command is not where we'd like it to be, but these new changes are interesting. Leaning more into two fastball variations has become the norm in the league, so it's nice to see Glasnow following suit; however, we'll have to see if he can rack up as many strikeouts when he uses his curveball less than he has before, and we'll have to see if he can start jamming those sinkers inside to righties. Heading into the All-Star break, Logan Gilbert seemed on the verge of putting the pieces together after some inconsistent results following his return from the IL. I ranked him as my 8th overall starting pitcher in my updated rankings and said, 'Gilbert has battled injury this season and has a 3.39 ERA in his 61 innings. That being said, his K-BB% and his SIERA are second-best of any starting pitcher in baseball with at least 30 innings pitched this season. We know how talented Gilbert is when he's healthy, so I'm just betting on Gilbert 'figuring it out' over the final two-plus months.' Well, the figuring it out might have started on Tuesday, when he threw 6.1 scoreless against the Brewers, allowing two hits and no walks while striking out 10. It was a fastball-dominant showing from Gilbert, who was able to get 72% strikes on the pitch and then induce six whiffs on his slider and another seven whiffs on his splitter. It was also another start where Gilbert seemed to be paring down his arsenal. As you can see from Alex Chamberlain's Pitch Leaderboard above, Gilbert came into this season and scrapped the cutter that he used 11% of the time last season. Over the last few starts, he has also rarely thrown his sinker. He threw it 12 times in his first start off the IL on June 16th and then has thrown it just six times TOTAL in his last six starts, including none on Tuesday. That means we're looking at a four-pitch mix for Gilbert now instead of a six-pitch mix. Getting rid of the cutter isn't a bad idea for Gilbert. Last season, he used the pitch 7% of the time against right-handed batters and 14% of the time against left-handed batters. Overall, it was a pitch he commanded in the zone well and induced above-average swinging strike rates on, but it did give up a 45% ICR that was a 29th percentile rate in baseball. The pitch was more effective for him against lefties, even though it gave up more hard contact, so if he was going to get rid of it, he needed a clear plan to attack lefties. That plan seems to be leaning on his splitter more often. Gilbert's splitter usage is up to 21% on the season from 13% last year, and his usage to lefties specifically is up to 20.6% after being at 14.5% last year. We've also seen a slight change to the shape and velocity of his splitter. This year, the pitch is over two mph slower with less horizontal break across the plate and almost two inches more drop. Essentially, it's moving down and away from lefties more often, which we like to see. As a result, the splitter has been downright nasty this year against lefties, posting a 34% SwStr% and .056 batting average allowed. It has also not allowed a single barrel or batted ball that qualifies as Ideal Contact on 111 pitches to lefties this season. Gilbert is using the pitch 72% of the time in two-strike counts to lefties, with a 31% PutAway Rate, which is a clear improvement from his 59% usage in two-strike counts to lefties last year and 22% PutAway Rate. The final change for Gilbert, which may also be connected to the shape change on his splitter, is that Gilbert has dropped his arm angle by over six degrees. Now, we could say that's him compensating for his injury, but considering the arm angle change has remained even after he's come back healthy, I think it's a conscious decision. We've seen many pitchers drop their arm angle to a more comfortable slot this year, and if Gilbert has gotten rid of his cutter, then he has one less pitch that he needs to stay on top of. He might simply be pitching from a more natural arm angle. However, there have been a few consequences. He now has a lower arm slot but the same iVB on his fastball, which has led to an even flatter fastball with a higher adjusted vertical approach angle. His locations have been getting better in his starts since coming off the IL, and the fastball is starting to play up a little more. I would just like to see him get it up in the zone more often. He also has minor movement changes on his other pitches, but has seen a better overall strike rate this year and the best first pitch strike rate of his career, so perhaps the arm slot is helping him with that command and control. All said, we know Gilbert is talented, so his figuring it out is not a surprise, but it's nice to see that paring down his arsenal is actually working for him. Having that slider, four-seam, and splitter to lefties has been enough for him, so he doesn't miss the cutter and can focus on his better pitches. Nine starts ago, Joe Ryan threw a curveball in a game for the first time since 2022. He only threw one, and then in his next start, he also only threw one. However, that usage has started to tick up a bit in recent outings, with a 5.4% usage over his last seven starts, and even a 9.1% usage in his last start. Over those seven starts, Ryan has been electric, with a 2.08 ERA, 0.85 WHIP, and 50/8 K/BB ratio. That's a pretty impressive line considering Ryan has yet to establish a clear secondary pitch behind his four-seam fastball. At some points, it's been the sweeper or the splitter, and now it's been the sinker with the curve creeping up in usage. So how is this new curveball usage working for Ryan? He's using it to both righties and lefties, with a 5% usage to lefties over seven starts and a 6% usage to righties. Lefties get it primarily as an early in the count strike pitch, with a 64.3% early usage, while righties see the curve 57% of the time in two-strike counts. It has just a 16.7% PutAway Rate to righties, so it hasn't been super successful in those counts, but it does have a 28.6% SwStr% in a small sample size against righties, so maybe it will work in the long run. He has better-than-league-average zone rates and strike rates on the curveball to lefties, so it works as a strike pitch there, even if it has been getting hit hard at times. The introduction of the curveball has maybe taken some of the emphasis away from the splitter, which Ryan has thrown only 8% of the time over his last seven starts, with a 13% usage to lefties. Before that June 14th start, Ryan was throwing the splitter 15.4% of the time overall in 13 starts, but 23.3% of the time to lefties, so that's a 10% decrease in usage. It's a change you can start to understand when you see that, against lefties specifically, Ryan's splitter had a 7% worse zone rate than last year, 10% worse strike rate, 3% worse SwStr%, and allowed a 6% higher ICR. Essentially, everything about the splitter to lefties was worse this season than it was last season. It wasn't a bad pitch, but it was a fairly mediocre one. Ryan has instead turned to the slider more against lefties over his last seven starts, and while it also doesn't miss many bats, he can command it in the zone better, and it's allowed just an 8.3% ICR to lefties on the season. If you look at just these last seven starts, Ryan has begun using the slider and curve early in the count to lefties while using the splitter and four-seam more in two-strike counts. That has allowed the four-seam to play up and post a 23% PutAway Rate to lefties over the last seven starts, up from 19% in his first 13 starts. The final change is that he has increased his sinker usage recently. In his first 13 starts, he used it 9.7% of the time overall and 14.3% of the time to righties. That has changed to a 12.7% usage overall and 16% usage to righties and shifted even more in his last five starts, where he has a 15.3% sinker usage overall and 22% to righties. Over those five starts, the sinker is his second most-used pitch to tighies, with the slider and sweeper both sitting around 13% usage. He uses the sinker early in the count to righties and likes to keep it low and mostly out over the plate. Ryan has been able to pound the zone with the sinker, with strong zone rates and strikes over the last seven starts, and very little hard contact allowed. He will mix the pitch in with two strikes, and it does have a 26% PutAway Rate to righties over the last five starts, probably because most righties are expecting his four-seam and get a pitch that has five inches more run and significantly less 'rise' as it approaches the plate, so hitters swing over it. I don't believe these changes make him a drastically different pitcher, but I do think changing his approach against lefties was a smart decision. Ryan is still searching for a legit secondary weapon, and it's scary to think of how good he might be if he were actually able to find one. Until then, he remains a fringe top-ten starter in fantasy baseball, which isn't so bad. We've seen Brandon Pfaadt do this before. He adds in a new pitch or changes his pitch mix for a time and goes on a strong stretch of production, only to falter and start searching for a new plan. We saw it earlier this year with his curveball usage, and then, after I covered his struggles in early June, we're now seeing it again with the introduction of a cutter. In his June 17th start in Toronto, Pfaadt unveiled his cutter for the first time. He threw just four of them, and we weren't sure if it was a real change or a misclassification or just him experimenting. He threw five in his next start in Coors and then bumped that up to 11 cutters when he returned home to face the Marlins. Since he introduced the cutter into his pitch mix, he's registered a 3.50 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, and 35/5 K/BB ratio in 36 innings. That's also been against some decent offenses like the Blue Jays, Padres, Giants, and Cardinals, and also one start in Coors Field. All in all, not bad. But will it stick this time? In those six games, he has thrown 57 cutters, and only eight have been to righties, so this is certainly a plan to attack lefties. Much like the early-season increase in curveball usage was designed to do. He's using the cutter 71.4% of the time early in counts to lefties, and the few times he does throw it in two-strike counts, it's not often leading to strikeouts. He has a 51% zone rate on the pitch against lefties, which is essentially league average, but has a 91st percentile strike rate. It also allows a 94% contact rate with just a 4% SwStr%, so this is by no means a swing and miss pitch. This is a pitch that thrives on inducing weak contact, and gets it with just a 6.3% ICR allowed. A lot of that has to do with how well he's able to jam lefties inside, with an 80% inside rate against lefties and 72% of those cutters coming either middle-in and up-and-in. That's a strategy that can work and has been working for Pfaadt. Part of the reason it's working is because Pfaadt's four-seamer has been pretty bad this season, so he needs to start throwing it less. On the year, the four-seamer has just an 8.2% SwStr% with a 53% ICR and 19% barrel rate allowed. Both lefties and righties have hit his four-seamer hard, and he has struggled to command it in the zone against both as well. Pfaadt has leaned into his sinker as his primary fastball against righties, with his sweeper being his most-used pitch overall to them, and he's now turning to the cutter more against lefties while also mixing in the sinker, changeup, and four-seam. Against lefties overall since adding in the cutter, Pfaadt is allowing a .179 average and .305 xwOBA with just a 30% ICR. He does have just a 6.4% SwStr% and 17% strikeout rate against them, but as long as lefties aren't crushing Pfaadt, this can help because his sweeper allows him to post a 30% strikeout rate to righties. Overall, I still think Pfaadt, even with these changes, is just a 23-25% strikeout rate pitcher who will have an ERA around 3.70 or higher, but that will play as a low-upside option in shallow formats and a solid back-end starter in deeper formats.
NBC Sports
16-06-2025
- Sport
- NBC Sports
MLB Power Rankings: Rays and Astros rising, Giants in strong position after Rafael Devers trade
Featured in this week's MLB Power Rankings, the tremors of a shocking blockbuster trade, a Contreras brothers showdown, familiar faces return for the Yankees and Mariners, another rapid ascension for an Angels prospect, and the best catch of the young season. (Please note these power rankings are a combination of current performance and long-term projected outlook) Let's get started! Matthew Pouliot, Note: Rankings are from the afternoon of Monday, June 16. Last week: 1 Riley Greene homered and knocked in four runs in Friday's win over the Reds and now boasts 49 RBI for the season. He's currently on pace to be the first Tigers player to drive in 100 runs since Nick Castellanos in 2017. That's a long time! Last week: 2 Swept by the Rays over the weekend and missing Kodai Senga with a hamstring strain. This week, the Mets will begin an important 10-game stretch where they'll play the Braves seven times and the second-place Phillies three times. Last week: 3 The Cubs' bullpen has a 0.93 ERA over the last 30 days. Ryan Pressly has turned his season around in this timespan with a spotless ERA to go along with a 11/2 K/BB ratio in 12 2/3 innings. Daniel Palencia has emerged as a late-inning arm and Porter Hodge is making his way back from injury, so the Cubs' bullpen is likely to remain a strength. Last week: 5 The Dodgers won two out of three against the Giants over the weekend, including a throwback performance from Clayton Kershaw. Now they'll get Shohei Ohtani back on the mound to begin the week. It remains to be seen how far they'll push him initially, but it's a big boost for a depleted rotation. Last week: 4 What will the Yankees get out of Giancarlo Stanton? The 35-year-old has been out season due to epicondylitis in both of his elbows, but he checked out fine during a brief minor league rehab assignment while going 3-for-11 (.273) with one double, four RBI, and one walk over three games in Double-A. His return means that the Yankees will have to get creative about giving Ben Rice at-bats. Last week: 8 Winners of four straight, the Phillies are set to take on the Marlins in Miami for four games before a huge weekend series against the Mets at Citizens Bank Park. Jesus Luzardo is set to pitch twice this week after an encouraging return to form last week against the Cubs last Wednesday. Last week: 7 I'll be honest: Until now, I've been a bit skeptical about the Giants' staying power in our Top-10, but their stunner of a trade for slugger Rafael Devers changes all of that. It's a franchise-altering move, and one which makes the Giants a team built to last in the National League playoff race. Well done, Buster Posey. Welcome to The Bay, Raffy! 🌁 Last week: 9 The Astros are still rising and falling with Jose Altuve. The 35-year-old is hitting .297 with six homers and an .827 OPS over his last 35 games. The Astros have gone 23-12 in that time to surge into first place in the AL West. Last week: 6 Jackson Merrill has already missed time this season due to a right hamstring strain, but now he's facing another absence due to a concussion from a tag from Diamondbacks second baseman Ketel Marte on Saturday night. Last week: 11 A steady riser in our ranks, the Rays have 18 out of their last 24 games, including a sweep against the Mets at Citi Field this past weekend. Jonathan Aranda might be the best hitter that the public-at-large doesn't know about. He's tied for second in the AL in-base percentage (.411) and fifth among qualified AL hitters with a .902 OPS. Last week: 12 Alejandro Kirk is second in the majors with a .371 batting average dating back to the start of May. Last week: 14 Jacob Misiorowski lived up to the hype in his major league debut last week, tossing five no-hit innings before leaving due to cramping in his right calf and quadriceps. Fortunately for the Brewers, the rookie fireballer checked out fine and should be ready to face the Cubs in his second career start on Wednesday. MUST SEE: Jacob Misiorowski's first three pitches to start his Major League career: 100 MPH 🔥 102 MPH 🔥 101 MPH 🔥 Last week: 16 The Mariners have faded in our rankings, but they swept the Guardians over the weekend and will get their ace Logan Gilbert back on Monday against the Red Sox. Last week: 10 Everything you can do, I can do better. On the eve of Father's Day, Cardinals first baseman Willson Contreras and his brother Brewers catcher William Contreras each hit home runs in the same inning. Josh and Bo Naylor did the same thing last April, but the Contreras brothers are the first to do it as opponents since 1933. Great tidbit here by Sarah Langs. Willson and William Contreras are the second pair of brothers to homer in the same inning as opponents since 1900, joining: 7/19/1933 Rick (BOS) & Wes (CLE) Ferrell (Rick's HR was OFF Wes!) h/t @EliasSports Last week: 18 The Reds have won seven out of their last 10 games and Elly De La Cruz begins the week with a four-game home run streak. Last week: 19 Trading a player who is in his prime and ranks among the league leaders in RBI is something we rarely (if ever) see, especially for a team who fancies themselves as a contender, but the Red Sox apparently think that getting Rafael Devers out of their clubhouse (and off their payroll) will pay off in the end. It's a bold take for a lot of reasons, including the fact that the Red Sox are playing their best baseball of late. Byron Buxton launched a 479-foot home run against the Rangers last Wednesday. Only Mike Trout (484 feet on April 19) has hit a longer home run this season. 479 FEET! BYRON BUXTON LAUNCHES ONE WAY OUT! Last week: 20 Pickle Power! Kumar Rocker had his best start in the majors to date on Sunday with five scoreless innings against the White Sox, apparently aided by multiple shots of pickle juice. Shot of pickle juice anyone? 🤨#AllForTX I smell an endorsement in Kumar Rocker's future. And pickles. Last week: 21 We noted last week that the Diamondbacks were probably in trouble after losing Corbin Burnes due to Tommy John surgery. It's still not looking great, but they won five straight before dropping the series finale against the Padres on Sunday. Last week: 24 The Braves somehow lost to the Rockies on Sunday despite Grant Holmes striking out 15 batters, but still there's some momentum with this team over the past week. They have a chance to make a move in the NL East with seven out of their next 10 games coming against the first-place Mets. Last week: 15 With six wins in their last 19 games — and one of the worst offenses in the majors — It's increasingly likely that the Guardians may use this summer as a testing ground for some of their young position players. Last week: 17 Six straight losses and what looks to be a long-term absence for ace left-hander Cole Ragans as he tries to get answers on his shoulder injury. It's not good. Last week: 22 Give the Angels some credit; they are nothing if not consistent. Christian Moore made his way to the majors last Friday after being selected 8th overall in last year's draft. This follows a long line of fast-rising prospects with the Angels in recent years, including fellow infielders Nolan Schanuel and Zach Neto. Angels fans hope this trio will be together for a long time. Last week: 25 Dare I say that the Orioles have been playing better recently? Since falling 17 games under .500 on May 28, the Orioles are 11-4. They still have quite a hill to climb, but it's been nice to see Gunnar Henderson start to take off. Last week: 23 Losers of eight straight, the Nationals have called up top prospect third baseman Brady House. The 22-year-old has seen his ups and downs since being selected No. 11 overall in 2021, but he was hitting .304/.353/.519 with 13 homers over 65 games in Triple-A this season. He's set to take over the starting third base gig in Washington. Last week: 28 The Marlins were one of nine teams to sweep a three-game series over the weekend, as they took down the fading Nationals. Dane Myers went 8-for-13 with a homer, three RBI, and two runs scored during the season as his unexpected breakout continues. Last week: 27 I could say something else here, but what's the point? Rookie Denzel Clarke probably made the best catch of the year last week and we should take a moment here to watch it all over again. Join me, friends. DENZEL CLARKE OMG! 🤯 Last week: 26 Andrew McCutchen has officially moved ahead of Roberto Clemente for third on the Pirates' all-time home run leaderboard. No. 241 for No. 22 👏 There's nobody you'd rather have do it. Last week: 29 The White Sox turned the page on Andrew Vaughn last week by trading him to the Brewers for right-hander Aaron Civale. A former top prospect, Vaughn has regressed in recent years and was hitting .189 with a .531 OPS through 48 games this season. While Vaughn's handling was likely botched in the first place, both sides are probably better off apart. Last week: 30 The Rockies are red hot! Or lukewarm, at least. After going 6-33 to begin the year, they've won five out of their last 12 games. As Bill Murray's character in 'What About Bob?' said, baby steps.
NBC Sports
01-06-2025
- Sport
- NBC Sports
Fantasy Baseball Waiver Wire: Miguel Vargas is heating up, Cole Young makes his debut
Welcome to Waiver Wire Watch, where I review my favorite waiver wire adds and drops for each week of the MLB season. The premise is pretty straightforward. I'll try to give you some recommended adds each week based on recent production or role changes. When I list a player, I'll list the category where I think he'll be helpful or the quick reason he's listed. I hope it will help you determine if the player is a fit for what your team needs. For a player to qualify for this list, he needs to be UNDER 40% rostered in Yahoo! formats. I understand you may say, 'These players aren't available in my league,' and I can't help you there. These players are available in over 60% of leagues and some in 98% of leagues, so they're available in many places, and that can hopefully satisfy readers who play in all league types. Matthew Pouliot, Waiver Wire Hitters Jordan Beck - OF, COL: 35% rostered (HOME PARK BONUS, PROSPECT GROWTH) The Rockies are coming back to Coors Field for the three games next week and are on the road in Miami for their other three, so now may be the time to add Beck back if he was dropped this week. He's a young hitter with some power and speed who has a 15.3% barrel rate on the season. His exit velocities aren't great, but he's pulling and lifting the ball more this year, which is going to help him get to his power. He still has just a 70% contact rate and 14.4% swinging strike rate, so the batting average will likely regress, but the power is intriguing, and you can slot him into your lineup every time the Rockies are at home. Another outfielder to add for recent production and a strong schedule is Jesus Sanchez - OF, MIA (3% rostered). He gets five right-handed pitchers this week, including two starts against the Rockies' staff, so that puts Sanchez firmly on the radar. The got a late start to the season due to injury, but is hitting .275/.366/.425 in May with three home runs, 12 runs scored, 11 RBI, and four steals in 22 games. He still hits the ball on the ground far too much for my liking, but he has taken a more passive approach this season, cutting his chase rate and swing rate by a good deal, which makes me think this solid average with modest speed/power profile could be real. Max Muncy - 3B, LAD: 34% rostered (HOT STREAK, RBI UPSIDE) At the beginning of May, Muncy started wearing glasses during games to help with an astigmatism in his right eye. He didn't know if it would help him at all, but he said he was willing to try anything if it might help his game. Well, since May 5th, Muncy is hitting .250/.370/.422 with five home runs, 24 RBI, two steals and a 12/13 K/BB ratio in 21 games. We've seen Muncy has good stretches before and even the batting average during this hot streak isn't great, but he's putting the ball in play and driving in runs. That kind of power and RBI production is useful in any format. If you're looking for a third baseman in deeper formats, Jose Tena - 2B/3B, WAS (0% rostered) has been posting a solid batting average of late, hitting .286/.368/.429 over his last 15 games with nine runs scored, four RBI and one steal. He is among the leaders on Statcast's Rolling wOBA Leaderboard and has a 7/7 K/BB ratio over that stretch which highlights his strong swing decisions. As you can tell from the numbers above, he's not bringing you tons of value, but in really deep formats, a player who is playing regularly and making good swing decisions and getting on base can be valuable. Chase Meidroth - 2B/3B/SS, CWS: 32% rostered (EVERY DAY JOB, MODEST STEALS UPSIDE) In 23 games in May, Meidroth is hitting .290/.365/.366 with 13 runs scored, seven steals, and a 12/11 K/BB ratio, so he's another hitter I'm highlighting on here who is making good swing decisions and succeeding due to a strong understanding of the strike zone. He had never stolen more than 13 bases in a season at the minor league level, so that number is a bit shocking to me, but he can run a bit and is a smart baseball player on a bad team that has no problem taking chances on the bases. Meidroth is also hitting leadoff and playing every day, so he could accumulate runs and steals while hitting for a solid batting average. That works in a lot of leagues. If you were interested in a more volatile option for speed, you could turn to Connor Norby - 2B/3B, MIA (12% rostered). The Marlins infielder has been working with hitting coaches on some swing modifications and that has led to a .282/.322/.435 slash line in 22 games in May with two home runs, 13 RBI, and two steals. He stole 16 bases last season between the minors and MLB, so he's not a burner, but he will swipe some bags. The issue is that, even in this strong stretch, he has a 27% strikeout rate, so the swing and miss will likely always be in his game and lead to some cold streaks. Alec Burleson - 1B/OF, STL: 29% rostered (PLAYING TIME REGAINED, POWER UPSIDE) After losing playing time early in the season to Jordan Walker, Burleson got back to a point where he was starting essentially every day against right-handed pitching. Then Walker started working himself back into playing time and the Cardinals have started to play Ivan Herrera at DH. On Saturday, the Cardinals put Walker on the IL, so we should see Burleson back into a full-time role. He has done his part too. In 18 games in May, Burleson is hitting .328/.371/.608 with four home runs, 10 RBI, and one steal. The Cardinals have been a solid offense so far this season, and Burleson can be a big component of that. He won't play versus lefties, which makes him a better fit in daily moves leagues, but he can be solid in NFBC-type formats when you can change your lineup mid-week as well. We just have to keep an eye on the playing time and ensure it remains. Gavin Sheets - 1B/OF, SD (20% rostered) had been in a similar boat, but he has started playing against some lefties recently as well. Sheets is hitting .285/.331/.510 on the season with nine home runs, so he has been productive for the Padres this year. He's hitting in the middle of a lineup that features a lot of strong bats, which means he has a good chance for RBI upside. His multi-position eligibility also makes him a bit more valuable, and he's an add I like in daily moves leagues. Roman Anthony - OF, BOS: 29% rostered (TOP PROSPECT, POTENTIAL CALL-UP) The screams for the Red Sox to promote Roman Anthony are only getting louder as the big league team struggles to find any offense without both Alex Bergman and Triston Casas. The issue is that the Red Sox still don't have space in the outfield for Anthony, and Rafael Devers has not yet agreed to take reps at 1B. It's coming to a point where Boston may have no choice but to move Gold Glove CF Ceddanne Rafaela back to the infield just to get Anthony's bat up. You simply can't be in a big market like Boston and have your big league team playing this poorly while the top prospect in ball of baseball is hitting .309/.441.514 with eight home runs, 40 runs scored, and 23 RBI in 50 games at Triple-A. Anthony has never posted a swinging strike rate above 9% at any step in the minors other than 50 games at High-A in 2023, so he should be a solid batting average asset upon being called up with good power potential and the ability to swipe 5-10 bases. Once he's up, Boston is HIGHLY unlikely to send him back down. Another big money stash option would be Jac Caglianone - 1B, KC (13% rostered), who the team promoted to Triple-A recently. He's gone 12-for-37 at the level with five home runs and 10 RBI in nine games. The Royals have also been playing him in the outfield to expedite his path to the big leagues, and with the team waiving Hunter Renfroe, we may see Caglianone get a shot in the coming weeks. Keep in mind that he has played only 43 games above High-A and had a nearly 13% swinging strike rate in Double-A, so this may be a similar situation to Nick Kurtz as well, where we see good power but some stretches where the swing-and-miss takes over as he adjusts to MLB pitching. Ryan O'Hearn - 1B/OF, BAL: 22% rostered (CONSISTENT PLAYING TIME, POWER UPSIDE) Ryan O'Hearn is a boring veteran who has also been criticized because he was 'blocking' the path of many of the Orioles' top prospects for the last couple of years. However, at this point, Kyle Stowers and Connor Norby are gone, Jordan Westburg and Colton Cowser play every day when healthy, Heston Kjerstad has not hit at the MLB level, and the team clearly doesn't trust Coby Mayo as a defender, so maybe we should just embrace O'Hearn for the value that he does bring. Much like Burleson, O'Hearn isn't going to play against lefties, but unlike Burleson, we know for certain O'Hearn will be in there against right-handed pitching. He hits clean-up for the Orioles and is having one of his best seasons by trading a little but of contact for a slightly more pull-happy approach. He's more of a line drive hitter, so the home run production will come and go, but the quality of contact has been really good, and this lineup should improve when Cowser and Westburg return soon. Marcelo Mayer - SS, BOS: 21% rostered (RECENT CALL-UP, BATTING AVERAGE UPSIDE) With Alex Bregman suffering a 'significant' quad strain, the path for Mayer to finally reach Boston became clear, and he was called up last Saturday for his MLB debut. Since then, he has started every game at third base and gone 5-for-19 with two extra base hits and on run scored. In Triple-A, Mayer hit .271/.347/.471 in 43 games at with nine home runs and 43 RBI. Just like what we discussed above with Jac Caglianone, there will be struggles for Mayer to adjust to MLB pitching, and his power is not going to immediately carry over. That being said, unlike power-first guys like Caglianone and Nick Kurtz, Mayer is an MLB-ready hitter from a plate discipline and contact perspective, and is going to be a strong fantasy add in deeper formats. In shallower leagues, he may not be as valuable this year since the power and speed numbers won't be that great. Miguel Vargas - 1B/3B/OF, CWS: 17% rostered (POST HYPE PROSPECT, EMERGING POWER) I'm not sure what more Vargas has to do to be rostered in more leagues. Three weeks ago, he appeared in my article on hitters to add based on their plate discipline and contact rates. Vargas is chasing at a super low rate, making 85% contact overall and rarely swinging and missing. He's pulling the ball slightly less this season and has focused less on lifting the ball, which is a good change. He doesn't smoke the ball, but a 90 mph average exit velocity is pretty good, and he's playing every day in Chicago. The production he's put up over the last month matches the process, with him hitting .275/.343/.604 in 24 games in May with seven home runs, 17 runs scored, and 15 RBI. The team context is not good, but the playing time and production have been solid. Another multi-position option, but one primarily for speed, is Jose Caballero - 2B/3B/SS/OF, TB (15% rostered), who has 11 steals in 21 games in May. He may lose his starting spot in two-ish weeks when Ha-Seong Kim returns, but the Rays have shown confidence in playing him basically anywhere on the field, which could help him keep making four starts a week and helping with your stolen base totals. Brett Baty - 3B, NYM: 17% rostered (PLAYING TIME OPPORTUNITY, HOT STREAK) With Mark Vientos continuing to look lost at third base, there's a real chance for Baty to emerge as the regular third baseman for the Mets with Vientos shifting to DH. In 20 games in May, Baty is hitting .290/.333/.581 with five home runs and 16 RBI. He's also pulling the ball 45% of the time as he starts to get a little more aggressive in the batter's box. That's huge for him because a lot of his early-season struggles were connected to being too passive and getting himself into terrible counts. In deeper formats, we are going to see Shay Whitcomb - 3B, HOU (1% rostered) get a chance in Houston this year now that Chas McCormick is on the IL. Whitcomb has been tearing up AAA to the tune of 18 home runs and a .275/.357/.599 slash line. He has can play multiple positions on the infield as well as shift into the outfield, and with Zach Dezenzo also hurting his hand on Saturday, there could be a chance for Whitcomb to push for playing time here. Cam Smith - 3B/OF, HOU: 17% rostered (POWER UPSIDE, PROSPECT GROWTH IS NOT LINEAR) Cam Smith is continuing to hit, going 23-for-75 over the last month, which is a .307 average. Unfortunately, the increased batting average is coming with a huge dip in fly ball rate, so he has no home runs and just seven RBI over that stretch. Smith is a young player who jumped straight to the big leagues from High-A ball, so he's adjusting to MLB pitching and starting to have some success. I'm willing to bet on him continuing to adjust and finding the power stroke again. Matt Wallner - OF, MIN: 12% rostered (POWER UPSIDE, RETURN FROM THE IL) The Twins lineup got fully healthy this weekend with the return flor Byron Buxton and Wallner, who has been out six weeks with a hamstring strain. Wallner was crushing the ball in Triple-A and should immediately return to his everyday role against right-handed pitching. What that means for Kody Clemens - 1B/2B/3B, MIN (3% rostered) is anybody's guess. Clemens has been on fire of late and can move all over the field, so there's still reason to be adding him because he can starts 4-5 times a week in a super utility role. However, I'd keep my bids light until we know for sure what his role is. Jake Meyers - OF, HOU: 10% rostered (SPEED UPSIDE, STARTING JOB) A few weeks ago, I published an article on hitters who were being more aggressive and swinging at the first pitch more often this year than last year. Myers popped up for me on that leaderboard, and I explained in detail why I'm a fan of his new approach, so you should read that article to check out the analysis; however, I think he's a solid add for steals and something close to a .270 batting average. Another outfield speed option is Sal Frelick - OF, MIL (19% rostered) who has been a bit underrated in fantasy circles this season despite hitting .297 with 11 stolen bases. He's gone 18-for-48 over the last two weeks with three steals while driving in nine runs for a Brewers offense that is slowly waking up a little bit. He's primarily a batting average and stolen base asset, but he does help a little bit everywhere and is a really solid, deep league player and a fine fifth OF in shallow formats. Carlos Santana - 1B, CLE: 8% rostered (BATTING AVERAGE, RBI UPSIDE) Every year, Carlos Santana has strong stretches where his batting average spikes and he drives in a bunch of runs in the middle of a batting order. We are in one of those stretches right now. Over the last month, he has gone 23-for-75 (.307) with four home runs and 21 RBIs. The batting average will likely regress in the coming weeks, and this isn't a pick up necessarily to hold for the remainder of the season, outside of deeper formats, but Santana is a solid veteran hitter, who can be helpful for you when he's riding hot streaks like this. It also seems like Eric Wagaman - 1B/3B/OF, MIA (3% rostered) is heating up again. He's hitting .286 over his last two weeks, going 14-for-49 with one home run but just five RBI since the lineup around him is not great. That limits him to just deep leagues. Addison Barger - 3B/OF, TOR: 7% rostered (PLAYING TIME OPPORTUNITY, POWER UPSIDE) I was a fan of Addison Barger in the spring when he was all over the spring training leaderboards, and then I read about how the Blue Jays tried to change his swing upon his arrival in the big leagues and how it didn't work. He has now gone back to a more 'free' swing that he says stops him from overthinking in the box and just lets him be loose. We obviously love to hear that, and I think Barger has a profile that the Blue Jays need. So many of their hitters are contact-first bats (Bichette, Clement, Springer, Kirk). I think Barger is a nice fit as more of a pull-heavy hitter who tries to do damage when he swings. That may lead to a .250 type of hitter, but I believe in his batted ball quality and think he could push to be the Blue Jays' third baseman for the season. Barger's teammate, Ernie Clement - 2B/SS/3B - TOR (4% rostered) has only been seeing the ball well lately, going 28-for-94 (.298) over the last month with three home runs, 14 runs scored, and 12 RBI. The impending return of Andres Gimenez could make plane time a bit complicated, but Anthony Santander heading to the IL means that Barger could move to DH and allow both Clement and Gimenez to play the field every day again. Clement proved himself to be a solid batting average asset last season and his multi-position eligibility makes him valuable in deeper performance. Carlos Narvaez - C, BOS: 7% rostered (PLAYING TIME OPPORTUNITY, TBATTING AVERAGE UPSIDE) It seems as though Narvaez has emerged as the starting catcher and one of the better rookies in the AL. He was known primarily for his plus defense when he was acquired from the Yankees in a trade this off-season, but he's hitting .285/.349/.457 in 166 plate appearances with five home runs and 17 RBI. He provides top-tier defense behind the plate and is going to start about two-thirds of the games for the Red Sox while hitting near the middle of the order. He should be rostered in all two-catcher leagues. Henry Davis - C, PIT (0% rostered) has also become the starting catcher for the Pirates with Joey Bart on the concussion IL. Davis has gone 7-for-24 (.292) over that span with one home run and four RBI. It's not elite production, but he has some prospect pedigree, is showing minor improvements, and Bart has had a few concussions before, so it's unclear how long he may be out for. Cole Young - 2B/SS, SEA: 6% rostered (RECENT CALL-UP, BATTING AVERAGE UPSIDE) On Saturday, the Mariners called up their 3rd-ranked prospect, Cole Young, who's the 43rd-ranked prospect in baseball, according to MLB Pipeline. He's a high contact rate hitter who doesn't have tons of power but could push 15+ steals in an everyday role. He's seen a slight uptick in his power this season, but he's probably a 10+ HR bat right now who has a good feel for the zone and gets a slight boost in OBP leagues. The Orioles also called up Coby Mayo - 3B, BAL (6% rostered) with Ryan Mountcastle headed to the IL with a hamstring injury. Even though Jordan Westburg is returning, Mayo should be set as the near every day 1B/DH for a few weeks while Mountcastle is down. This could finally be the chance for him to get regular run in a big league lineup. The only potential concern is if Colton Cowser and Tyler O'Neill both come back and the Orioles decide to push Heston Kjerstad to DH versus righties Robert Hassell III - OF, WAS: 6% rostered (PROSPECT CALL UP, SPEED UPSIDE) The Nationals called up Hassell last week after having to place both Jacob Young and Dylan Crews on the IL. So far, the former top prospect, who is one of the players who came over in the Juan Soto trade years ago, has gone 10-for-37 (.270) with one home run, six RBI, and one steals. He was hitting .288 with four home runs, nine steals, and a .742 OPS in Triple-A this season and had made clear gains in his exit velocity and shown a little bit more pop than in years past. I don't expect him to hit for much power at the big league level, but he could be useful in deeper formats. Fantasy managers in deep leagues could also add Andrew Benintendi - OF, CWS (3% rostered). We know he's not going to set the world on fire, but he's going to play every day and had shown some solid power earlier in the season before getting hurt. It's boring but functional in deeper formats. Thairo Estrada- 2B, COL: 6% rostered (OFF THE IL, BATTING AVERAGE UPSIDE) He's back. Estrada was a big late-round favorite of mine early in the season now that he's in Colorado. I think he hurt his fantasy value by playing through injury last year, but he's a .270 15/15 type of talent who will not be playing in Coors Field. A fractured wrist could impact some of that power, but Estrada hit a solid 7-for-23 during his rehab assignment and could be a solid source of batting average and speed while being the likely every day starter at second base for the Rockies. Dane Myers - OF, MIA: 5% rostered (OFF THE IL, SPEED UPSIDE) The Marlins brought Dane Myers off the IL this week. He had hit .337/.375/.482 with seven steals in 29 games and should play everyday, so if you're in a deeper league and need some speed, he's a solid gamble. Injuries to Anthony Santander and Daulton Varsho may have also opened up playing time chances for Alan Roden - OF, TOR (1% rostered), who started the year up in Toronto before heading back to Triple-A and lighting up the box scores with a .375/.467/.625 slash line, three home runs, and three steals in 16 games. In shallower formats, I'd want to wait to see what Toronto is doing a bit more, but in deeper leagues, I'd gamble and add Roden this weekend. Ha-Seong Kim - SS, TB: 4% rostered) (IL STASH, SPEED UPSIDE) If you have space for a bench stash, Kim is another possible option if you need speed. He's currently in Triple-A on a rehab assignment, so it feels like maybe two more weeks until we see Kim back up, but he should play every day for the Rays, who may also then ship him away at the trade deadline. Even if that happens, Kim would have value wherever he winds up, so now may be the time to stash him. Another middle infield option primarily for speed is Otto Lopez - 2B/SS, MIA (8% rostered), who stole 20 bases for Miami last season. He has hit just .237 since coming off the IL and has just five steals on the season, but I think his true talent is as a 20-25 steal middle infielder, and so that has value if you're OK with the counting stats being pretty modest. Waiver Wire Pitchers Ryan Weathers - SP, MIA: 38% rostered I'm surprised that Weathers still makes the cut for this list. He has come back off the IL and faced the Cubs twice and Padres once and allowed just three runs in 15/2 innings while striking out 15. His spring training velocity has held, and his command has been tremendous early on. I like him as an upside play and think he needs to be rostered in all formats. Daniel Palencia - RP, CHC: 37% rostered Palencia has seen his roster rate shoot up almost 30% after securing five of his last five save opportunities. The right-hander has limited experience and some previous control concerns, but he throws hard and has a 1.74 ERA, 0.77 WHIP, and 22 strikeouts in 20.2 innings this season. At this point, it's hard to see him losing the closer role to either Ryan Presley or Porter Hodge when he returns. However, I do expect the Cubs to go out and trade for a veteran reliever at some point. That still gives Palencia a few weeks as the unquestioned closer on one of the best teams in baseball. Eury Perez - SP, MIA: 36% rostered Eury Perez looks set to make his season debut this week after throwing five shutout innings in his final Triple-A start on Wednesday. During his rehab starts, he has showed off a new sinker that should help him as a second fastball variation and a pitch to attack righties with inside. He's a young arm with the upside to be a 30% strikeout rate pitcher with a low 3.00 ERA; however, we have to remember that he missed all of last season after Tommy John surgery, so his command figures to be inconsistent this year, and the Marlins are going to be cautious with his innings. His potential for wins is also capped on Miami, so while I like adding Perez, I just want you to do it with some caution. Bubba Chandler - SP, PIT: 32% rostered Is Tuesday the day? Mike Burrows' spot in the rotation comes up on Tuesday at home, and there are some rumblings that Bubba Chandler could make that start. We have no idea if it's true, but it seems like it's only a matter of time before Chandler is up in the Pirates rotation. He has dominated the level this year, and has nothing left to prove. I know waiting is hard, but if you have the bench space for a stash, I think Chandler is the one. Shelby Miller - RP, ARI: 24% rostered Justin Martinez is back and throwing 100 mph, but I think it's premature to assume that he will simply be given the closer's role. There's a good chance they use Miller to help lessen some of Martinez's workload after coming back, by using him in the eighth inning or mixing in Miller for some save opportunities as well. If somebody in your league has dropped Miller, I'd put in a small bid just until we see how this situation plays out. Edward Cabrera - SP, MIA: 22% rostered Cabrera has long tantalized with his upside and disappointed with his command, but he is making some pitch mix changes that caught my attention. I dug into him for my starting pitcher news column this week, so I'd encourage you to check that out for a more detailed breakdown. Zebby Matthews - SP, MIN: 19% rostered We waited for months to get Zebby in the Twins rotation, and then he pitched seven combined innings in his first two starts. Well, the Twins let him go seven innings in just his last start alone, and while the overall stat line isn't great, Matthew's struck out seven and pitched deep into the game. He also really only got dinged up in the first inning when both Cal Raleigh and Randy Arozarena got him for home runs. He settled down after that, and if I'm getting Zebby with the ability to go six or more innings then I'm in. Landen Roupp - SP, SF: 17% rostered Last week, everybody was talking about Hayden Birdsong and Kyle Harrison moving into the rotation, but Roupp just keeps chugging along. He threw four great innings against the Tigers on Wednesday, but the fifth inning was a mess of errors and some hits, and he was chased from the game early. Still, over his last 26 innings, he has just a 1.73 ERA, 11.19 WHIP and 21 strikeouts. With the exception of his last start, he's been going five innings or deeper pretty consistently, and I think he's a pretty safe option. Richard Fitts - SP, BOS: 8% rostered Fitts was added back to the rotation last week instead of continuing his rehab assignment, and while he was limited to just three innings, we should expect him to build back up in the coming weeks. With Tanner Houck on the IL, I expect Fitts to officially take Hunter Dobbins' place in the rotation for the foreseeable future. Before straining his pec in April, he showed off improved velocity and a much deeper pitch mix that features a new fastball variation and sweeper. I'm a believer in Fitts. Slade Cecconi - SP, CLE: 3% rostered Cecconi was not great on Saturday against the Angels, but he was also pitching on nine days rest due to a groin injury, and I often think added rest like that can backfire on a starter. I covered Cecconi's increased velocity and new pitch mix in my starting pitcher column for last week, so I'd encourage you to check that out for my thoughts. Sawyer Gipson-Long, SP: 1% rostered Is in a similar situation to Fitts. He's likely to come up this week to take Jackson Jobe's spot in the rotation, but could likely still use some more rehab stints. I like Gipson-Long as an arm, so I wanted to highlight him here, but I'd be trying to just watch him this week rather then add him since he missed all of last season after elbow surgery. STREAMING STARTER PITCHERS MUST BE 40% ROSTERED ON YAHOO OR UNDER (ranked in loose order) Week of 6/2 Strong Preference Fairly Confident Some Hesitation If I'm Desperate
