Latest news with #MatthewSussex
ABC News
16-07-2025
- Politics
- ABC News
Has Trump finally turned against Putin?
Sam Hawley: After heaping so much praise on his Russian counterpart, Donald Trump's view of Vladimir Putin has finally soured. But is the US president's demand for a ceasefire in the Ukraine war in 50 days' time and a promise of US weapons for NATO really a sign that the bromance is over? Today, Russia expert Matthew Sussex from the Centre for European Studies at the ANU on how Putin's still playing Trump. I'm Sam Hawley on Gadigal Land in Sydney. This is ABC News it was just six months ago, of course, that Donald Trump was ripping shreds off the Ukrainian president in the Oval Office. Donald Trump, US President: You're not in a good position. You don't have the cards right now. And what you're doing is very disrespectful to the country, this country. Sam Hawley: But now it seems he's realised he might actually be the good guy. Matthew Sussex: Yes, look, this is a big reversal by Trump having called Zelenskyy a dictator and told him that, you know, he was responsible for the war and that it was his choices that were making his people keep dying at the hands of the Russians to now suddenly saying that he's going to allow the United States to sell weapons to NATO, which those countries can then buy and give to the Ukrainians. Donald Trump, US President: The purpose of this is to say that there's a very big deal we've made. This is billions of dollars' worth of military equipment is going to be purchased from the United States going to NATO, etc. And that's going to be quickly distributed to the battlefield. Matthew Sussex: So it's a pretty big 180-degree shift. Sam Hawley: Sure is. All right. Well, Donald Trump's glowing view of Vladimir Putin, it has been going downhill for a while now, but it may have been his wife Melania who convinced Donald Trump that he actually cannot trust Vladimir Putin. Matthew Sussex: Well, look, I mean, supposedly Trump said to Melania I had another lovely call with Putin. Donald Trump, US President: I go home, I tell the First Lady, you know, I spoke with Vladimir today. We had a wonderful conversation. She said, oh, really? Another city was just hit. So it's like, yeah. Matthew Sussex: And, you know, that he took inspiration from that and it changed his mind. Look, I don't know whether this is true or not or whether it's a convenient story. Certainly, you know, Nancy Reagan used to consult her astrologer before she gave Ronald Reagan advice, or at least that was the story. And if we're kind of left with Melania diplomacy, I think it is, you know, possibly scratching the bottom of the barrel and we'd prefer to go through official channels. Sam Hawley: Oh, that's harsh, Matt. All right. Well, Trump himself has acknowledged now that the war in Ukraine has been very difficult to end because, of course, he had wanted to do it in a day and now he realises, well, actually, it's pretty hard. Donald Trump, US President: It's more difficult than people would have any idea. Vladimir Putin has been more difficult. Frankly, I had some problems with Zelenskyy. You may have read about him. And it's been more difficult than other wars. Matthew Sussex: Yeah, and it's pretty hard because both sides don't have really an incentive to stop fighting. Putin doesn't have an incentive to stop fighting because, you know, Trump has effectively enabled him since getting into office. And, you know, his desire to maintain the bromance with Trump is something that Putin has read as, well, keep going. And from the Ukrainian side, if, you know, the Russians are continuing their advance and continuing to try and take your territory, then, you know, why would you necessarily come to the peace table? Sam Hawley: All right. Well, Matt, let's run through now this newfound approach to the war from Donald Trump, noting, of course, that we don't know how long it will last for because he does tend to change his mind quite often. He has given Russia 50 days to agree to a peace deal. That's almost three months, so it's a pretty long time, right? Matthew Sussex: Yeah, that's right. And as you say, this administration can turn on a dime. It can change its mind within an hour. And so, therefore, if you're sitting in Ukraine, if you're in Kiev, you'd be possibly a little bit worried about this because 50 days is an awfully long amount of time for Trump to change his mind. And the extra worry here, I think, is that Putin had told Trump about 10 days ago on a call that he was going to prosecute the war for at least another 60 days, and Trump gave him 50, which, you know, doing the maths, 10 plus 50 is 60. So, effectively, Putin got what he wanted. And that's why I think it's probably necessary to look beyond the, you know, the conclusion that this is somehow a fundamental reset in US policy because I think, you know, Putin gets what he wants, he gets a green light, and unfortunately it means that he will continue to attack the Ukrainians with every tool at his disposal. Sam Hawley: OK, well, let's unpack what Trump has done and is threatening to do. Let's just start with the weapons deal he has struck with NATO nations. Just tell me exactly what that entails. Matthew Sussex: Yeah, well, this is American weaponry, about $10 billion worth, which is quite a lot, but it comprises a variety of different things that NATO member countries will buy, from America, and then give to the Ukrainians. And, of course, what the Ukrainians need is, well, pretty much everything, but fundamentally they need surface-to-air missiles to knock down incoming Russian cruise missiles that are shot at their cities and critical infrastructure. The Patriot interceptors are the ones that they need, the surface-to-air missiles first of all, because what the Russians are doing is shooting upwards, some nights, 740 drones, decoys, and cruise missiles at Ukrainian cities, and it's very hard to knock all those down. But then they also need offensive weaponry that's able to, you know, strike Russian troop formations, potentially even hit targets in Russia itself. So, the laundry list of things that Kiev needs is quite lengthy, and a lot of these weapons have been actually tied up in Poland because Trump's Under-Secretary for Defence, Elbridge Colby, had put a stop to American weapons going into Ukraine. So, these have been held up for a while, and you assume that they'll be part of the tranche that goes into Ukraine as a result of this deal. Sam Hawley: All right. So, unlike under Joe Biden, where America was donating a massive amount of military aid to Ukraine, and picking up the cost, of course, for that, the Europeans will now have to pay for this. I assume that makes Trump's MAGA base happy. Matthew Sussex: Yes. I mean, this is a bit of red meat because it says to them, we're not actually giving aid to Ukraine. What we're doing is we're selling American weapons. And a lot of them, I think, will be absolutely fine with that. And it's worth recalling also that there are some people who might not be, you know, MAGA, but they are nonetheless very strong supporters of Trump and actually want American weapons flowing into Ukraine. Lindsey Graham is a good example. But even if you're the most, you know, rusted-on MAGA believer who absolutely doesn't want Ukraine to get, you know, a penny of aid or any weapons at all out of America, nonetheless, I think, on this type of issue, there might be a little bit of bluster, but ultimately they'll fall into line behind Trump because they owe his positions to him. Sam Hawley: But Matt, this is good for NATO too, isn't it? Because it wanted Trump to be more engaged. It's a win, if you like, for the Secretary-General of NATO, Mark Rutte, who's really been sucking up to Trump, hasn't he? Calling him "Daddy". So it's the soft diplomacy. It works, does it, with Donald Trump? Matthew Sussex: Well, perhaps it does. Maybe it's a combination of Rutter and Melania and a whole bunch of other things. Ultimately, look, it is good for NATO because it shows that the United States is, you know, at least to an extent, prepared to take European security worries seriously, even if that's only through selling weapons. So it is something that will give them comfort, but I don't think it's something that will change the minds of European leaders, that Trump is someone who ultimately is really just going to pursue an America first and a Trump first policy, rather than necessarily have their interests always at heart. Sam Hawley: Hmm. All right. Well, Matt, that's on the weaponry side. Now, if there's no end to the fighting in 50 days, Trump is also threatening tariffs against Russia. Donald Trump, US President: We're very, very unhappy with them and we're going to be doing very severe tariffs if we don't have a deal in 50 days. Tariffs at about 100%. You call them secondary tariffs. You know what that means. Sam Hawley: Although they're secondary tariffs. So what does that mean? Matthew Sussex: Yeah. Well, he said there's two things. There's going to be 100% tariffs, direct one-to-one tariffs on any imports from Russia for the US. And that's small beans because the size of that trade is about $3 billion. These secondary tariffs are the things that potentially could make the Kremlin sit up and take notice because they're tariffs that America would put on countries that trade with Russia. And there are, you know, a number of countries throughout the world, in South East Asia, in Africa, that continue trading with Russia. And so putting large tariffs on those countries might get them to change their own policies and might then have an effect on the Russian economy. Sam Hawley: Right. Yeah. And big players in that, of course, are China and India, allies of Russia. So what does Donald Trump think that by putting economic pressure on them, they might then try and convince Vladimir Putin to end the war? Matthew Sussex: Well, he might. I think part of this also is an attempt to get those countries to buy American energy rather than Russian oil and gas. But then you have to question the fundamentals of this because is America really going to slap a 500% tariff on India? The relationship with New Delhi is something that's really pretty important to Washington. And that would make it very, very bad indeed. And so any attempts by the Americans to sort of pry the Indians away from the Russians would be stymied, I think. So, you know, when it comes to those really big economies that could put a dent in the Russian purse, you, I think, have to think carefully about whether, in fact, Trump will follow through on that. Sam Hawley: All right. Well, Matt, I guess the real question is, will any of this actually change anything on the ground? Trump has never outlined what his so-called deal with Russia and Ukraine would look like. So why would Putin stop the war now when he has refused to do that for so long? Matthew Sussex: Well, look, he's at least got another 50 days before anything happens from the American side, with the exception of arming Ukraine. So I think that incentive for Putin remains to just let's keep going and see what happens. And for the Ukrainians as well, you know, they will have come out of this big reveal by Trump thinking, well, it's great that we got the weaponry, but it's not terrific that the sanctions aren't going to kick in for 50 days. So therefore, you know, we need to redouble our efforts too. And that means, I think, that the protagonists, you know, Russia and Ukraine are still really a long way apart. Sam Hawley: Yeah. So what do you think we should expect from Vladimir Putin over the next 50 days? Matthew Sussex: I think Putin will throw everything he's got at Ukraine, which means a lot more drones, a lot more cruise missiles, and, you know, a really concerted ground offensive. There are reports that the Russians have managed to mobilise, cobble together a really significant force to add to their offensive troops in Ukraine, and they will try and seize as much of Ukrainian territory as possible in those 50 days, because that will strengthen Putin's hand. He will be able to say, well, you know, my troops are advancing. You need to give me a better deal if you want me to even think about peace. Sam Hawley: Matthew Sussex is from the Centre for European Studies at the ANU. This episode was produced by Sydney Pead. Audio production by Sam Dunn. Our supervising producer is David Coady. I'm Sam Hawley. Thanks for listening.
Sky News AU
09-07-2025
- Politics
- Sky News AU
Trump administration taking ‘180 degree' turns on Russia-Ukraine policy
ANU Strategic & Defence Studies Centre Visiting Fellow Dr Matthew Sussex says Donald Trump has unfortunately been making '180 degree' turns in how they respond to the Russia-Ukraine war. Donald Trump is considering additional sanctions on Moscow after becoming increasingly frustrated over the rising death toll in the Ukraine war. 'The White House had held up air defence missiles for Ukraine for a while; it then reversed that,' Mr Sussex told Sky News Australia. 'The short term with this particular administration can be measured in hours rather than days or weeks.'
Sky News AU
25-06-2025
- Politics
- Sky News AU
Putin ‘quite pleased' with Trump's approach to Ukraine war
ANU Strategic & Defence Studies Centre Visiting Fellow Dr Matthew Sussex says Vladimir Putin would be 'quite pleased' about his relationship with Donald Trump, when compared to previous US administrations. This past week, Iran has endured Israeli and US strikes but has received very little help from Russia. 'Trump seems still very unwilling to put any pressure on Moscow when it comes to the war in Ukraine, besides giving it endless two-week passes,' Mr Sussex told Sky News Australia. 'You'd think perhaps he would be a bit less happy with Trump deciding to throw his lot in with the Israelis and to participate in the bombing of Iranian nuclear sites.'
Sky News AU
25-06-2025
- Politics
- Sky News AU
Moscow ‘unwilling' to help Tehran beyond sending ‘thoughts and prayers'
ANU Strategic & Defence Studies Centre Visiting Fellow Dr Matthew Sussex says Moscow is "unwilling' to help Tehran beyond 'expressions of support and thoughts and prayers'. This past week, Iran has endured Israeli and US strikes but has received very little help from Russia. This comes after Russia and Iran signed a new strategic partnership to seal their alliance at the beginning of this year.
Sky News AU
25-06-2025
- Politics
- Sky News AU
Russia trying to secure ‘additional influence' in the Middle East with Iran partnership
ANU Strategic & Defence Studies Centre Visiting Fellow Dr Matthew Sussex says Russia has been 'amping up' its relationship with Russia for quite some time now. This comes after Russia and Iran signed a new strategic partnership to seal their alliance at the beginning of this year. 'Part of the reason for that is because its sought Iranian help for providing it with Shahed drones which it uses in a very large number to attack critical infrastructure and civilian targets in its war against Ukraine,' Mr Sussex told Sky News Australia. 'More than that, it's to try and get additional influence within the Middle East and Russia has lost of course significant influence when it came to Syria just last year.'
