Latest news with #MaxLayton
Yahoo
5 days ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Citigroup Backs Silver to Soar But Warns Gold's Peak Is In
(Bloomberg) -- Silver will extend a rally beyond $40 an ounce in the coming months on tightening physical supplies and growing investment demand, according to Citigroup Inc., which reiterated a more cautious stance on gold. The Dutch Intersection Is Coming to Save Your Life Advocates Fear US Agents Are Using 'Wellness Checks' on Children as a Prelude to Arrests LA Homelessness Drops for Second Year Manhattan, Chicago Murder Rates Drop in 2025, Officials Say The three-month forecast was raised to $40 from $38, while the six-to-12 month outlook was boosted to $43, analysts including Max Layton said in a note. Gold's outlook was unchanged, with the bank saying the peak may be in, and holding forecasts for a drop below $3,000 next year. 'We expect silver availability to tighten on consecutive years of deficit, sticky stockholders requiring higher prices to sell, and robust investment demand,' the analysts said. 'The recent silver price rally is not just a catchup trade to gold but also a reflection of strong silver fundamentals.' Precious metals have been among the strongest performers in commodities this year, with gold hitting a record and soaring by more than a quarter on central-bank buying and exchange-traded fund inflows, with the trade war spurring haven demand. Silver — valued as an industrial input, as well as a financial asset — has done even better in terms of year-to-date gains. Silver will also advance 'on the back of Fed cuts,' the Citi analysts said, referring to expected monetary-policy easing by the US Federal Reserve. 'We continue to highlight our view that we may have seen gold price highs.' Spot silver rose as much as 0.8% to top $38 an ounce, and is up by 31% this year. Gold was near $3,340 an ounce, 27% higher. (Updates to add chart) Forget DOGE. Musk Is Suddenly All In on AI How Starbucks Is Engineering a Turnaround With Warm Vibes and Cold Foams How Hims Became the King of Knockoff Weight-Loss Drugs Thailand's Changing Cannabis Rules Leave Farmers in a Tough Spot The New Third Rail in Silicon Valley: Investing in Chinese AI ©2025 Bloomberg L.P. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Business Times
5 days ago
- Business
- Business Times
Citigroup backs silver to soar just as gold's rally loses steam
[MELBOURNE] Silver will extend a rally beyond US$40 an ounce in the coming months on tightening physical supplies and growing investment demand, according to Citigroup, which reiterated a more cautious stance on gold. The three-month forecast was raised to US$40 from US$38, while the 6-to-12 month outlook was boosted to US$43, analysts including Max Layton said in a note. Gold's outlook was unchanged, with the bank saying the peak may already have been seen, and holding forecasts for a drop below US$3,000 next year. 'We expect silver availability to tighten on consecutive years of deficit, sticky stockholders requiring higher prices to sell, and robust investment demand,' the analysts said. 'The recent silver price rally is not just a catchup trade to gold but also a reflection of strong silver fundamentals.' Precious metals have been among the strongest performers in commodities this year, with gold hitting a record and soaring by more than a quarter on central-bank buying and exchange-traded fund inflows, with the US-led trade war spurring haven demand. Silver – valued both as an industrial input, as well as a financial asset – has done even better in terms of year-to-date gains. Silver will also advance 'on the back of Fed cuts,' the Citi analysts said, referring to expected monetary-policy easing by the US Federal Reserve. 'We continue to highlight our view that we may have seen gold price highs.' Spot silver was last just below US$38 an ounce, up by 31 per cent this year. Gold was at about US$3,337 an ounce, 27 per cent higher. BLOOMBERG
Bloomberg
5 days ago
- Business
- Bloomberg
Citigroup Backs Silver to Soar Just as Gold's Rally Loses Steam
Silver will extend a rally beyond $40 an ounce in the coming months on tightening physical supplies and growing investment demand, according to Citigroup Inc., which reiterated a more cautious stance on gold. The three-month forecast was raised to $40 from $38, while the six-to-12 month outlook was boosted to $43, analysts including Max Layton said in a note. Gold's outlook was unchanged, with the bank saying the peak may already have been seen, and holding forecasts for a drop below $3,000 next year.
Time of India
03-07-2025
- Business
- Time of India
Gold price outlook: Bullion may be near its peak as global tailwinds fade; Citi, BMI and Motilal warn of downside after 40% rally
After soaring over 40% in the past year and hitting record highs, gold prices may be running out of steam. Analysts and research houses including Citi, Motilal Oswal, and Fitch unit BMI have raised caution flags, pointing to shifting macroeconomic conditions that could undercut the yellow metal's recent safe-haven strength. The run-up in gold prices has been dramatic: from $1,797 per troy ounce in January 2022 to $3,342, a gain of 86% in just over two years. That climb was supported by persistent geopolitical tensions, especially in Ukraine and the Middle East, and consistent central bank accumulation of the asset, according to an ET report. Gold price forecasts Report Short-term forecast ($/oz) Long-term forecast ($/oz) Citi Bank 3,000 – 3,500 2,500 – 2,700 (H2 2026) BMI (Fitch) 3,000 – 3,100 * 2,720 (average for 2025–2029) ICICI Bank 3,000 – 3,200 3,300 – 3,500 (by December 2025) * $3,100 is Fitch's annual average price forecast for 2025 But several experts now believe gold may be nearing the top of its current cycle. BMI, a research arm of Fitch Ratings, said the metal could face downside pressure but stopped short of predicting a complete reversal. 'Despite our outlook for gold prices to weaken, we do not see a return to pre-Covid levels,' said the Fitch unit. 'Gold prices will average USD 2,720/oz during 2025–2029, compared with USD 1,393/oz in 2019. ' Forecasts diverge as Fed policy and inflation become key According to Citi, the price of gold may drop sharply from current levels, returning to a range of $2,500–2,700 per ounce by the second half of 2026. In a Bloomberg report, Citi analyst Max Layton cited weakening investment demand, stronger global growth prospects, and upcoming interest rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve as possible triggers for a correction. Motilal Oswal echoed the view that prices could stabilise or enter a consolidation phase. 'Historical data suggests that annual gains beyond 32% are rare,' it said in a recent note, warning that market fatigue was visible at current levels. Analysts also pointed to upcoming Fed policy decisions, dollar movement, and inflation as key indicators to watch. BMI observed that if interest rates are lowered, bond yields may fall, making gold more attractive as a non-yielding but secure store of value. Geopolitical risk remains, but caution is rising Investors may still turn to gold in the event of a serious escalation in any ongoing conflicts, analysts said. However, if the Federal Reserve holds rates steady, a stronger dollar and higher bond yields could sap gold's appeal. 'Gold's appeal could weaken, pulling prices back to $2,500/oz,' BMI noted. Meanwhile, ICICI Bank has taken a different view, projecting that gold could reach $3,300–3,500 per ounce by December. The bank said in a May report that a delayed but sharp easing cycle by the Fed may push real yields lower, prompting a shift toward physical assets like gold. BMI also flagged a near-term watchpoint: the July 9 deadline for a pause on trade tariffs. If the global trade environment tightens further, gold prices could spike again in response to protectionist risks and retaliatory policies. Stay informed with the latest business news, updates on bank holidays and public holidays . AI Masterclass for Students. Upskill Young Ones Today!– Join Now
Economic Times
03-07-2025
- Business
- Economic Times
Has gold reached its peak? Economists weigh in on future price trends
Agencies Live Events (You can now subscribe to our (You can now subscribe to our ETMarkets WhatsApp channel Mumbai: Gold, which has surged more than 40% over the past one year in dollar terms, might be close to its peak in the current upcycle, several economists and researchers said, pointing to immediate downside risks for the safe-haven asset that had benefited from unsettled geopolitics and central bank buying to hit pricing records since the Covid shutdowns. Motilal Oswal and a research unit of Fitch Ratings - BMI - are among those suggesting an end to the gold rally, as global macroeconomic conditions that had hitherto burnished its safe-haven allure change to bullion 's relative predicts gold's possible return to $2500 to $2700 an ounce by the second half of 2026, while Motilal says annual gains beyond 32% are rare. The Fitch unit says downside pressures are building up, pushing gold prices down, although a return to pre-Covid price levels are unlikely."Despite our outlook for gold prices to weaken, we do not see a return to pre-Covid levels," said the Fitch unit. "Gold prices will average USD2,720/oz during 2025-2029, compared with USD1,393/oz in 2019."Gold prices, expressed in US dollars per troy ounce, have risen 86% to $3,342 since January 2022. The Ukraine-Russia war, troubles in the Middle East, and persistent central bank purchases have underpinned gold's yellow metal, the traditional store of value for the average Indian, was at $ 1797 per troy ounce on January 31, giving an outlook over a long-term horizon, BMI said as the July 9 deadline for the tariff pause nears, prices could rise if the trade environment becomes too restrictive, inviting forecast a sharp dip in the gold prices from the current levels. According to a Bloomberg report, Max Layton, analyst at Citi, has stated that the slump in gold prices may be driven by weaker investment demand, improving global growth prospects, and rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. Motilal Oswal said in a report that gold prices would consolidate or could move sideways, with signs of market also added that historical data suggests that annual gains beyond 32% are rare, reinforcing the case for caution at current levels. Factors to watch in the near-term are the Federal rate cuts, inflation and the US dollar strength. Rate cuts may lower bond yields, shifting investments toward non-yielding yet safehaven assets like gold, according to BMI. To be sure, investors are expected to seek further refuge in the asset if significant escalation is seen in any of the ongoing conflicts. In contrast, if the Federal Reserve abstains from cutting rates, a sharp rise in the US dollar and bond yields could lower gold's appeal, bringing prices back to $2500/oz, BMI said. ICICI Bank said in a report mid-May that gold prices could be between $3300 and $3500 per ounce by December. A potential backloaded easing cycle by the Federal Reserve may lead to falling real yields, pushing demand for physical assets like gold, it had said.
