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13 hours ago
- Business
- Yahoo
China's Steel Market Navigates Property Sector Challenges
Via Metal Miner In the end, China exceeded market expectations, posting a 5.2% year-on-year growth on July 14 compared to the market forecast of 5%. According to the economic data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, strong trade and industrial production helped to propel growth, indicating that China has braved the tariff war unleashed by the United States. Meanwhile declining steel prices seem to indicate A Strong Monday Showing for Iron Ore It was this very expectation of a 5% growth in Q2 that iron ore traders were banking on. In the days leading up to the release of the Q2 data, iron ore wrangled its biggest weekly gain since January this year. This came as presumptuous traders bet on the positive reporting of the second-quarter economic growth by the world's largest metals-consuming nation. Last Monday, the future prices of this steel raw material rose to as high as $99.90 a ton after surging 3.6% the previous week. Following the biggest gain in recent months, the ore futures market continued to rally. Singapore iron futures hovered near the US $99.30 ton mark while the yuan-dominated contracts on the Dalian exchange advanced. This contrasted with a decline in steel futures on the Shanghai markets. A Tuesday Retreat The script was slightly different when markets opened on Tuesday. Following the release of China's economic growth data, markets saw a significant dip. As weak property sector data from China dented market sentiment, benchmark 62% iron ore futures fell. Futures on the Singapore Exchange dropped toward $105 per tonne, with Dalian prices also retreating. By the end of Tuesday trading, iron ore futures had fallen by 1.6%, indicating slowing demand from steel companies. In Singapore, ore price settled at US $98.92 per ton, down by 0.7%. Meanwhile, according to this report, Dalian (yuan-based) and Shanghai (steel contracts) also reported a decline in futures rates. Amid Falling Steel Prices, China May Move to Curb Capacity As revealed in the new set of economic data, declining steel prices could be a direct fallout of sharper-than-expected slowdowns in fixed-asset investment, retail sales and falling property prices. In June, new home prices in China fell for a 12th consecutive month. There's also concern that a slowdown could be on the way, even though Beijing claims its economy is on track. Incidentally, much of the rally in iron ore futures last week was due to anticipation that China would announce schemes to boost the ailing property sector and counter industrial overcapacity. While the former did not happen, the data released contained some indication that the latter may still be in the works. Going forward, analysts say iron ore gains are narrowing as traders grow cautious amid high prices, which they expect to hover between $95–100/ton in the short term. Meanwhile, some primary market drivers include continued resilient demand from Chinese steel mills despite production cuts, declining sea shipments from Australia and Brazil, trader optimism and port inventories continuing to fall, indicating strong consumption. According to this report, June steel production decreased 9.2% year-over-year to 83.2 million tons, marking the largest monthly decline in 10 months. China's economic growth eased slightly in Q2 2025, registering a year-on-year expansion of 5.2%, a decline from 5.4% in Q1. Despite the moderation, the second-quarter performance surpassed market consensus, even after analysts raised forecasts in May. Source: MetalMiner Select For the first half of the year, China's GDP rose by 5.3% YoY, keeping the country on course to meet its 'around 5%' growth target for 2025. Nevertheless, first half output is now at its weakest since 2020, 3% below last year's pace. For now, Beijing appears ready to continue its efforts to curb oversupply in key industrial commodities, and the data released suggests continued pressure on the construction and manufacturing sectors amid a broader economic slowdown. Looking ahead, the second half of 2025 presents new headwinds for China's economic growth, which is obviously going to affect iron ore costs, steel prices and more. This analysis suggests that tariff-related uncertainty remains a significant overhang, particularly as critical deadlines approach in August. While a return to April's peak tariffs seems unlikely, further escalations can't be ruled out. This would potentially suppress investment and weigh on business confidence. Additionally, momentum from trade-in subsidies may start to taper unless policies are further extended. Efforts to tackle China's 'involution'—excessive price competition—could deliver long-term gains, but not without near-term economic friction. Despite these challenges, the solid first-half showing leaves China well-positioned to meet its full-year growth target .According to the report by the research team at ING, current risks to the 4.7% YoY GDP forecast appear broadly balanced, with some upside potential, By Sohrab Darabshaw More Top Reads From this article on Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Yahoo
18-07-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Spot Market Tightness Boosts Aluminum Prices
Via Metal Miner The Aluminum Monthly Metals Index (MMI) remained sideways with an upside bias. Overall, the index rose 1.99% from June to July as aluminum prices slowed their ascent. Track other MetalMiner monthly indexes here, and compare how the overall industrial metal market is performing. Midwest Premium Returns to the Upside Stabilization proved temporary for aluminum's Midwest Premium. After finding a peak in early June followed by a modest decline, the premium returned to the upside. By early July, it managed to surpass its previous peak in search of a new high. Source: MetalMiner Insights The short-lived decline occurred as buyers pulled back from the market after Section 232 tariffs doubled in early June. Markets had mostly priced in the increased cost of imports but remained cautious, as trade negotiations posed a risk of altering the tariff landscape once again. Brokers of offshore material appeared hesitant about the premium's downswing. Specifically, they noted that the level would be unsustainable absent trade deals with major importers to the U.S. to account for tariffs. The only other option would be for demand to weaken significantly. Trade Negotiations Slow to Finalize By late June, trade negotiations faced several setbacks. For starters, trade deals had yet to be reached with major exporters, particularly Canada. While Canada offered some concessions, namely forgoing a 3% duty on U.S. tech firms, the July 9 deadline for trade talks eventually passed. Meanwhile, Trump kept retaliatory tariffs on pause, pushing the deadline to August 1st instead. However, the premium's recent increase suggests markets remain concerned that no trade deal will be reached, which would lead to significantly higher duties on aluminum imports. Canada remains the overwhelming aluminum supplier to the U.S. Even considering the recent opening of SDI's Aluminum Dynamics, the U.S. is still a net importer of aluminum. According to data from the U.S. Geological Survey, imports accounted for 47% of the U.S. aluminum supply in 2024. The fact that trade negotiations remain underway presents a heightened volatility risk for the Midwest Premium. A resolution with Canada would likely place downward pressure on the premium. Conversely, any indication that tariffs will remain as is or increase could see it climb higher. Global Premiums Plummet Amid U.S. Trade Barriers While the Midwest Premium continued its upswing, aluminum premiums elsewhere have sharply diverged. U.S. trade barriers have led to oversupply. Combined with soft demand, this has caused both Europe's duty-unpaid premium and the Main Japanese Port premium to drop significantly. Since the start of 2025, the European aluminum premium has decreased by 56%, while Japan's has dropped by38%. Meanwhile, the Midwest Premium rose 155% rise during the same period. As of mid-July, aluminum prices have taken at least a short-term pause from their uptrend. Although the long-term trend remains upward, the rate of increase appears to have slowed in recent weeks. Despite the global demand remaining slow, prices have found support from tighter LME inventories. These stocks faced considerable declines since May 2024, falling over 70% before finding a bottom in late June. The significant presence of Russian metal in LME inventories worsened these drops, as it remains heavily sanctioned by the U.S. and less desired by other buyers. Source: Westmetall Stocks appeared to rebound as of late June, perhaps placing a cap on aluminum prices. Nonetheless, the stock tightness saw the market spend a good portion of the year in backwardation, with primary cash prices trending higher than three-month. This suggests spot market tightness. Source: MetalMiner Insights, Chart & Correlation Analysis Tool As of July 14, the delta remained narrow, but primary cash prices held a modest premium. This suggests that the market remains tight, even with the recent rise in aluminum stocks. Ultimately, this could offer support to aluminum prices. By Nichole Bastin More Top Reads From this article on Sign in to access your portfolio
Yahoo
10-07-2025
- Automotive
- Yahoo
Trump's 50% Copper Tariff Rocks U.S. Automakers
Via Metal Miner The Automotive MMI (Monthly Metals Index) moved sideways, inching up by 2.29%. While the index has maintained a mostly sideways trend over the past year, short-term volatility may be on the way. President Trump recently announced a 50% tariff on imported copper, a move expected to impact U.S. automotive manufacturing firms that source the red metal. President Trump's surprise July 8–9, 2025 announcement of a 50% tariff on imported copper (which will come into effect late July/early August) jolted U.S. automakers. Copper futures leaped roughly 15–17% to record highs as buyers scrambled ahead of the deadline, reflecting a new price premium. Copper is vital for EV motors, batteries and wiring harnesses, so the tariff will boost automotive manufacturing costs by hundreds of dollars per vehicle, especially in the case of electric cars. The sudden move came with little warning. President Trump said the goal is to 'bring copper production back home to America,' citing its key industrial role. Meanwhile, traders had already been rushing imports. Bloomberg noted that, in the short term, 'the price is going to rise significantly' because markets had expected a lower rate. In the meantime, procurement teams should brace for higher metal costs and act quickly. We recommend subscribing to MetalMiner's free newsletter for real-time updates and checking our premium, monthly forecasts for detailed supply-risk analysis. 25% tariffs on steel, aluminum, automobiles and parts have already strained U.S. supply chains. Automakers warn these levies 'increase costs on consumers' in North America's integrated market. Now, copper is being added to the mix. Meanwhile, U.S. buyers already pay approximately $1,250 per ton above average world prices for aluminum due to past tariffs. Data confirms this strain. For instance, a recent ISM report said tariffs have caused 'bottlenecks in the supply chain,' slowing U.S. factories. Many automakers and are now accelerating orders and hedging where possible. MetalMiner provides instant alerts on price spikes. Our advice? Lock in key metal contracts while prices climb using, and update cost models to include the new copper duty. These events also coincide with high-stakes EU-U.S. trade talks. Both sides are racing for a deal by August 1, and EU sources say autos, steel and possibly copper exemptions are being discussed. According to The Guardian, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz says he's 'cautiously optimistic' that an agreement on cars and steel will be struck by month's end. Germany has proposed a specific automotive manufacturing deal that allows U.S. cars to be tariff-free in return for more European production on American soil. Reuters reports BMW, Mercedes and VW could earn import credits for vehicles built in the U.S., effectively offsetting duties. This would primarily benefit German brands with large U.S. plants. As such, some EU officials are wary, fearing it could favor only a few exporters. For U.S. metal buyers, the lesson is clear: stay informed. Any trade outcome will affect both demand and prices. The 50% copper tariff has jolted America's automotive manufacturing sector with price shocks. Copper futures surged as importers rushed to meet the deadline, and production-cost models now indicate significantly higher vehicle costs. For automakers, which often run on tight single-digit margins, even a few hundred dollars of extra cost per vehicle can make a big difference. By The MetalMiner Team More Top Reads From this article on Sign in to access your portfolio
Yahoo
20-06-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Precious Metals Rally as Gold Nears New Highs
Via Metal Miner The Global Precious Metals MMI (Monthly Metals Index) saw a strong rally from mid-May to mid-June. Precious metals prices like gold, silver, platinum and palladium all climbed on a potent mix of safe-haven investment flows and robust industrial demand. Geopolitical tensions, notably the recent flare-up in the Middle East between Israel and Iran, have only fueled more risk aversion. This continues to drive safe-haven demand into gold and silver. Palladium has improved from its spring lows but continues to lag other precious metals prices due to a fundamentally narrower demand profile. While that marks a modest rebound, palladium remains far below its peaks from a few years ago. The primary issue is softening demand. Over 85–90% of palladium's use is in catalytic converters for gasoline cars, a segment that remains under pressure as EV sales accelerate. Source: MetalMiner Insights Even within combustion vehicles, some automakers are reducing palladium loadings or substituting platinum to cut costs. On the supply side, palladium had faced chronic deficits for much of the past decade. However, that seems to be changing. After 13 years of shortfalls, 2025 is forecast to be roughly balanced in palladium supply and demand. Unless an unexpected supply disruption occurs (for instance, mining issues or sanctions affecting top producer Russia), palladium is likely to remain range-bound. Some downward pressure could even re-emerge if auto production weakens further. Procurement teams with palladium needs may want to adopt a more hand-to-mouth buying approach or look into substitution strategies, topics frequently covered in MetalMiner's free knowledge resources. Platinum has been a standout performer in the precious complex, with prices climbing significantly month-over-month. Unlike gold and silver, platinum's strength is heavily tied to supply and fabrication demand dynamics. On the supply side, the platinum market is swinging into a significant deficit this year. Leading analysts at Johnson Matthey project that platinum supply will fall short for a third consecutive year in 2025. This constrained supply, coupled with only modest recycling flows, continues to tighten the market. Metals strategists generally expect platinum to hold and potentially extend its previous gains. 'Platinum will retain recent gains and could rise a little further as gold and silver gain,' notes one analyst, emphasizing the metal's diversified demand base as outlined by Reuters. Silver prices have surged even more dramatically, outpacing gold in recent weeks. July COMEX silver futures mirrored this rise, with only minimal spread versus spot, indicating robust near-term demand. The Silver Institute forecasts the 2025 deficit at about 118 million ounces, which is only slightly narrower than last year. However, any reversal in gold or a resurgence of the dollar could cap silver's gains short-term. U.S. gold futures for August delivery have largely tracked spot prices, recently settling in the same range: a slight contango reflecting carrying costs. Over the past month, gold gained roughly 5%, and it's up an astounding ~45% from a year ago. Source: MetalMiner Insights. To get specific price points without overpaying for unnecessary data, learn about MetalMiner Select. Like other precious metals prices, a softer economic outlook and ongoing dollar weakness have added momentum to the gold index. On the demand side, central banks continue a buying spree, providing the metal with a firm floor. In Q1 2025, global central bank purchases hit a quarterly record of 244 tonnes, putting this year on track for ~1,000 tonnes again. This 'insatiable' official sector demand, along with resilient jewelry and investment buying, continues to offset stable mine output. Looking ahead two months, most analysts expect gold to remain elevated in the high-$3,200s to $3,400 range. Analyst sentiment is not only bullish, but major banks have been racing to raise their gold forecasts based on its 2025 performance thus far. By The MetalMiner Team More Top Reads From this article on Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Yahoo
18-06-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Aluminum Market Reacts to Tariff-Induced Price Spikes
Via Metal Miner The Aluminum Monthly Metals Index (MMI) moved sideways as the global price of aluminum ticked modestly higher. Overall, the index rose 0.73% from May to June. Track other MetalMiner monthly indexes here, and compare how the overall industrial metal market is performing. The Midwest Premium found a peak in mid-June. Following successive tariff-induced spikes throughout the year's first half, the premium hit a new all-time high at $0.615/lb on June 9. This marked a staggering 161% rise since the start of 2025. However, in a relief to markets, the premium has since started to fall. Source: MetalMiner Insights While declines have proven modest thus far, the bias has shifted to the downside. The spot premium has fallen by over 3%, while the three-month futures contract suggests further declines. Futures now sit almost 14% lower than their respective peak as the reaction to tariffs appears to be over. Markets now seem to be pricing in the impact of considerably higher aluminum prices in the U.S., potentially out of concern over demand destruction in the months ahead. Source: MetalMiner Insights, Chart & Correlation Analysis Tool U.S. aluminum tariffs, which now sit at 50%, have significantly increased the price of aluminum in the United States. However, those costs are now weighing heavily on the demand outlook. While tariffs raise the floor for aluminum prices, they do not mean the market has reached a bottom just yet. Higher prices kill higher prices, and now, manufacturers appear to be buckling under the weight of the sharp material increases seen since the start of the year. Source: MetalMiner Insights Prior to the spikes, the market appeared largely sideways. Suppliers characterized demand as steady, albeit not as high as what would be considered healthy. Over recent years, the U.S. manufacturing sector has mostly trended in contraction, and the Institute for Supply Management's Manufacturing PMI continues to trend at weak levels. Throughout May, the PMI fell for the third consecutive month, dropping to 48.5. A reading below the 50 mark suggests an overall contraction in the U.S. manufacturing sector. Demand conditions have appeared to wane in the aftermath of tariff announcements. Now, markets are awaiting the outcome of trade negotiations, which could pull the premium much lower. So far, the UK has received a temporary exemption from the additional 25% increase on aluminum duties. Ongoing negotiations have hinted that this could result in a quota, like what occurred under the Biden administration. However, the recent trade deal with the UK did not address steel and aluminum, both of which could be adjusted pending a Commerce Department review. While the UK is not a significant aluminum supplier to the U.S., the recent deal indicates a path toward lower duties for other countries. At the beginning of June, the UAE agreed to start negotiations that would put aluminum imports in sharper focus. The UAE stood as the second-largest aluminum exporter to the U.S. in 2024, which would make a potential deal much more consequential to the aluminum market. The largest supplier, Canada, is also reportedly weeks away from an agreement. Exchange prices remain relatively stable, offering some relief to markets. While LME aluminum prices have risen since their early-April low, those gains appear relatively modest. Despite volatility witnessed across the base metal category throughout the year, LME prices stand 1.30% lower than where they closed 2024. While tariffs offered strong support to U.S. premiums, they have also suppressed global demand expectations for aluminum. Overall, the global market remains oversupplied. While it is close, China has yet to reach its 45 million ton cap on aluminum output, which continues to place a cap on exchange prices. Meanwhile, the U.S. awaits the opening of SDI's Aluminum Dynamics facility, which is due to come online this summer. This will provide an additional 650,000 metric tons of secondary aluminum to the market, offering further relief for the price of aluminum. By Nichole Bastin More Top Reads From this article on Sign in to access your portfolio
