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How Trump's tariffs could affect your grocery bill
How Trump's tariffs could affect your grocery bill

The Hill

timea day ago

  • Business
  • The Hill

How Trump's tariffs could affect your grocery bill

President Trump's wide-ranging tariffs scheduled to go into effect Friday could raise food and grocery prices by several percentage points, according to analyses by two think tanks. The Yale Budget Lab estimated Monday that food prices would rise 3.4 percent in the short-run and stay 2.9 percent higher in the longer term. The Tax Foundation calculated that about 75 percent of the country's food imports would be impacted by the tariffs in some way, notably liquor, baked goods, coffee, fish and beer. Alex Durante, an economist with the Tax Foundation, said many people might choose to eat the cost of the tariff because many agricultural products don't have immediately available domestic alternatives. 'You can't make French wine in, say, California because then it ceases to be French wine,' he said. 'To that extent, consumers might have limited availability to switch to alternatives and they might just simply continue paying the tariff burden prince.' That said, not every item in Americans' grocery baskets could see price increases. Many agricultural products from Mexico and Canada, including some fruits, vegetables and meat products, are reportedly exempt under a trade agreement negotiated during Trump's first term. Potential duties on other imports and countries are still being worked out. Trump struck a trade deal with the European Union this week that established a 15 percent duty on goods from the bloc. But wine and spirits, for instance, still need to be negotiated, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said this week. 'The Administration has consistently maintained that the cost of tariffs will be borne by foreign exporters who rely on access to the American economy, the world's biggest and best consumer market,' a White House spokesperson told CNBC this week. The Hill reached out to the White House for comment. Here are five staples in your grocery cart that could see a price hike. Fish and seafood Canada, which makes up more than 15 percent of U.S. seafood imports, the most of any country, is currently locked in trade negotiations with Trump's trade representatives. The president's threat of a 35 percent tariff on the U.S.'s northern neighbor posed in April would reportedly exempt goods that comply with a trade deal negotiated during his first administration. Goods primarily produced in North America are tariff-exempt under the U.S.-Mexico-Canada agreement (USMCA). Indonesia (7.6 percent of U.S. seafood imports) will face a 19 percent tariff rate under a trade deal announced by the U.S. last week. Vietnam (6.9 percent) agreed to a 20 percent tariff, down from a 46 percent rate originally threatened by Trump. Coffee Brazilian coffee, which accounted for nearly a quarter of the country's 2024 coffee spending, could face a 50 percent tariff, along with all other imports to the U.S. Trump made the move in order to pressure the country's judiciary to drop the prosecution of Jair Bolsonaro, the former Brazilian president facing charges after his supporters stormed government buildings in early 2023. Switzerland, the source of 13.4 percent of American coffee imports, could also face a 31 percent rate. Trump also threatened tariffs on Colombia (16.8 percent of coffee imports) in January but later rescinded them. The average retail price of coffee is already up about $1 compared to what it cost in January. Rice The U.S. relies on Thailand, which could be subject to a levy as high as 36 percent, for more than half of its imported rice. The Southeast Asian nation's finance minister said Tuesday that he expected trade talks to be completed before Aug. 1 and that the final tariff rate would be lower than what Trump initially threatened, Reuters reported. India, another major importer, is also in trade talks with the U.S. Trump on Wednesday announced a 25 percent tariff on the country. Food Business News estimated in April that America's foreign rice supply faced an average added tariff of 33 percent. Rice exports from American producers have also been a sticking point for the Trump administration during negotiations with Japan, with the U.S. pushing to have more American rice bought in Japan tax-free. Alcohol Mexico, America's top source of spirits including tequila, is facing down a 30 percent tariff starting Thursday. The country also accounts for more than 83 percent of beer exports to the U.S. Domestic beer producers could also be impacted, the Cato Institute argued in July, because they depend on aluminum for cans and ingredients like hops, malts, and sugar imported from other countries. Any levies on wine imports from France and Italy remain to be negotiated as part of the EU's larger trade agreement with the US. New Zealand, another top source of wine (7 percent of U.S. imports), is subject to Trump's general 10 percent tariff increase but has not yet seen another duty imposed on top of that. Chocolate If the USMCA remains in place, Canadian and Mexican chocolate will continue to be exempt from American tariffs, regardless of where they source their cocoa. Several chocolate makers in Mexico and Canada told Reuters that the new tariffs actually boosted their businesses over American manufacturers, who have to import their cocoa from overseas that is tariffed under Trump's policies. Ivory Coast (9.4 percent) faces a reciprocal tariff of 21 percent, a move that the country's agriculture minister said in April would lead to higher cocoa prices.

Trump's steel tariffs against Canada have been working just how he wants
Trump's steel tariffs against Canada have been working just how he wants

National Post

time7 days ago

  • Business
  • National Post

Trump's steel tariffs against Canada have been working just how he wants

For the hundreds of Canadian steelworkers who lost their jobs this year amid President Donald Trump's trade war, talk of reaching a trade deal between Canada and the U.S. is coming too little, too late. Article content For Trump, the effects — driving down imports, boosting the U.S. steel industry and winning concessions from Canada — seem to be getting him what he wants. Article content Initially faced with a 25 per cent tariff on exports to the U.S., which ballooned to 50 per cent in June, Canadian steel is desperate for a resolution. Trump imposed the levies under Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act, declaring steel imports a threat to national security and citing the need to protect American industry. His rationale was that curbing imports would reduce supply and ramp up prices, giving U.S. steel additional revenue to invest in strengthening domestic production. Article content Article content Negotiating teams are staring down an Aug. 1 deadline, when Trump said he'll be hitting Canada with yet more tariffs — on top of the steel, aluminum, lumber, copper, autos, and energy already being whacked, as well as any goods not exempted by the U.S.-Mexico-Canada trade agreement (USMCA). Article content Article content So far, the Canadian steel industry has been one of the hardest hit by Trump's tariffs, and it's bracing for things to get uglier. Article content Article content 'By the end of May, before we even hit the 50 per cent tariffs, we saw a 30 per cent decline in production across the country,' said Catherine Cobden, president and CEO of the Canadian Steel Producers Association (CSPA). She doesn't have the June numbers yet, but she expects it be 'much worse.' Article content Article content Canadian producers can't afford to absorb the 50 per cent tariff on six million tonnes of production, the amount that was destined for the U.S. market and is now subject to the levy, Cobden explains. Article content While some analysts expected the U.S. market to keep buying heavily taxed Canadian steel to satisfy demand until domestic production increased to fill the gap, that's not playing out in practice. At least not yet.

EU, Mexico open to trade negotiations after latest Trump tariffs announced
EU, Mexico open to trade negotiations after latest Trump tariffs announced

The Hill

time12-07-2025

  • Business
  • The Hill

EU, Mexico open to trade negotiations after latest Trump tariffs announced

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum, in response to President Trump's latest tariff announcement, say they are open to trade talks but won't rule out taking countermeasures. Trump in his Saturday letters to von der Leyen and Sheinbaum announced a 30 percent tariff rate on goods imported into the U.S. beginning Aug. 1, after an initial 90-day pause and deadline delay lapses on the import taxes. 'Imposing 30 percent tariffs on EU exports would disrupt essential transatlantic supply chains, to the detriment of businesses, consumers and patients on both sides of the Atlantic,' the European Union (EU) leader wrote in a statement. 'Few economies in the world match the European Union's level of openness and adherence to fair trading practices,' von der Leyen continued. 'The EU has consistently prioritized a negotiated solution with the U.S., reflecting our commitment to dialogue, stability, and a constructive transatlantic partnership.' Still, the European leader said the commission is open to working toward an agreement before the latest deadline arrives. 'We remain ready to continue working towards an agreement by August 1,' von der Leyen wrote. 'At the same time, we will take all necessary steps to safeguard EU interests, including the adoption of proportionate countermeasures if required.' She added, 'Meanwhile, we continue to deepen our global partnerships, firmly anchored in the principles of rules-based international trade.' Sheinbaum on Saturday said Mexican leaders met with the Trump administration on Thursday to discuss 'issues of security, migration, border and water management.' 'We mentioned at the meeting that this was an unfair deal and that we disagreed,' she wrote in a statement, according to translation. She added later, 'In other words, Mexico is already in negotiations.' In April, Trump hit the EU with a 20 percent tariff. Following his 'Liberation Day' announcement, von der Leyen said the commission was open to trade discussions. Later in the month, she lashed out at Trump, accusing him of leaning on an 'unpredictable tariff policy.' The president has in the past claimed the EU has been unfair to the U.S. and argued that the bloc of nations was created to 'screw' America. Several of the union's member states — including Germany, Italy, France and the Netherlands — are considered top trading partners. Mexico, which is the U.S.'s top trading partner, along with Canada earlier this year were slapped with 25 percent tariffs — with the exception of goods covered under the U.S.-Mexico-Canada trade agreement. Sheinbaum and Trump have also clashed in the past over the import taxes. In her statement Saturday, the Mexican leader said trade talks were focused on looking to protect companies and jobs 'on both sides of the border.' Trump in recent days began sending letters to various countries with new tariff rates set to begin on Aug. 1. The duties on goods coming into the U.S. have hit top trade partners and poorer countries alike as he reorients the nation's trade policy. So far, the leaders of 25 countries have received letters with updated 'retaliatory' tariff rates ranging from 20 percent to 50 percent. While he originally said the August date was 'not firm' for imposing the taxes, the president has since doubled down on the deadline — though the Trump administration has left open the door for more trade deals. Trump has so far announced just one official agreement with the United Kingdom as well as frameworks for deals with China and Vietnam.

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