Latest news with #MichaelFeroli
Yahoo
11-07-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
July Fed Rate Cut Off the Table, JPMorgan's Feroli Says
Michael Feroli, JPMorgan's chief US economist, says the Federal Reserve won't cut rates until December amid the uncertainty from tariffs. He speaks on "Bloomberg The Close." Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Bloomberg
10-07-2025
- Business
- Bloomberg
Fed won't cut until December: JPM's Chief US Economist
Bloomberg Markets: The Close "So I believe December is your call for when we are going to get a cut," Michael Feroli of JPMorgan joins Bloomberg "The Close" to discuss. (Source: Bloomberg)
CNBC
02-07-2025
- Business
- CNBC
The June jobs report brings downside risk to the stock market, JPMorgan trading desk says
The U.S. stock market will likely sell-off sharply if Thursday's jobs report is anything like the weak private payrolls number from ADP, according to imagined outcomes from the JPMorgan trading desk. In a note on Wednesday, the JPM U.S. Market Intelligence team said the stock market is likely to move higher if the jobs report is roughly in line with expectations, but said that there's more risk to the downside than the upside. Economists broadly expect growth of 110,000 jobs, according to Dow Jones. JPMorgan's chief U.S. economist Michael Feroli projects 125,000 jobs added. The JPMorgan trading desk's base case calls for job growth of between 105,000 and 125,000, which would lead to the S & P 500 gaining 0.5% to 1% on Thursday. "As long as [nonfarm payrolls] is above 100k this is a stock market that remains bid. While we view this as a positive, a print toward the lower end of the range would be unlikely to create a material shift in sentiment especially given the context of Powell's comments that he expected tariff impacts to be reflected in June–August data readings," the note said. .SPX YTD mountain The S & P 500 hit a new record high on Wednesday ahead of the June jobs report. However, some traders and economists may be feeling less confident in those forecasts after the ADP report for June showed private payrolls shrank by 33,000 jobs. The ADP is not always predictive of Bureau of Labor Statistics jobs data, but the weakness did add credence to the theory that the economy is starting to sputter. The JPMorgan scenario analysis calls for the S & P 500 to fall between 0.25% and 1.5% if payroll growth is in the realm of 85,000 to 105,000 jobs. Below that range, the index could fall 2%-3%. "At best, the Market would see a recession as likely and at worst a stagflationary scenario where neither fiscal nor monetary support is likely to be forthcoming," the trading desk said about that low end scenario. "Stagflation" refers to periods where economic growth is tepid and inflation is higher. Of course, the jobs report has surprised to the upside before and could do so again. If Friday's report shows growth between 125,000 and 145,000, the JPMorgan team projects an S & P 500 gain of 0.75% to 1.25%. If growth is above 145,000, the estimated gain is bumped up to a range of 1% to 1.5%. The June jobs report is coming out on a Thursday, as opposed to the typical Friday release schedule, because of the July 4 market holiday.
The Star
30-06-2025
- Business
- The Star
Asia shares track Wall St gains before payrolls test
SYDNEY: Asia shares firmed on Monday as seemingly unquenchable demand for technology companies lifted S&P 500 futures to another all-time peak, while the dollar dipped on concerns U.S. jobs data will show enough weakness to justify larger rate cuts. Investors were also keeping a wary eye on the progress of a huge U.S. tax-cutting and spending bill slowly making its way through the Senate, with signs it may not make it by President Donald Trump's preferred July 4 deadline. The Congressional Budget Office estimated the bill would add $3.3 trillion to the nation's debt, testing foreign appetite for U.S. Treasuries. There was no doubting the demand for the U.S. tech sector and megacap growth stocks including Nvidia, Alphabet and Amazon. Nasdaq futures rose another 0.3%, while S&P 500 e-minis added 0.2%. The bullish sentiment spilled over into Japan's Nikkei which rose 1.0%, while South Korean stocks gained 0.5%. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan firmed 0.1%. A holiday on Friday means U.S. payrolls are a day early, with analysts forecasting a rise of 110,000 in June with the jobless rate ticking up to 4.3%. The resilience of the labour market is a major reason the majority of Federal Reserve members say they can afford to wait on cutting rates until they can gauge the true impact of tariffs on inflation, so a weak report would stoke speculation of a rate cut in July rather than September. "While initial jobless claims retreated somewhat from their recent high, continuing claims jumped higher yet again," noted Michael Feroli, head of U.S. economics at JPMorgan. "Consumers' assessment of labor market conditions also deteriorated in the latest confidence report." "Both of these developments suggest that the unemployment rate in June should tick up to 4.3%, with a significant risk of reaching 4.4%." The latter outcome would likely see futures push up the chance of a July easing from the current 18% and price in more than the present 63 basis points of cuts for this year. DOLLAR DOLDRUMS Fed Chair Jerome Powell will have an opportunity to repeat his cautious outlook when he joins several other central bank chiefs at the European Central Bank forum in Sintra on Tuesday. The prospect of an eventual policy easing has helped Treasuries weather worries about the U.S. budget deficit and the huge amount of borrowing it entails. Yields on 10-year Treasuries were steady at 3.27%, having fallen 9 basis points last week. The dollar has not fared so well, in part due to concerns tariffs and chaotic policies from the White House will drag on economic growth and erode the country's claim to exceptionalism. The euro was near its highest since September 2021 at $1.1731, having climbed 1.7% last week, while sterling stood near a similar peak at $1.3719. The dollar was down a fraction at 144.48 yen, after losing 1% last week, while the dollar index dipped to 97.163. James Reilly, a senior markets economist at Capital Economics, noted the dollar had fallen by more at this stage in the year than in any previous year since the U.S. moved to a free-floating exchange rate in 1973. "At this point, further weakness could become self-reinforcing as underhedged European/Asian portfolios chase the move," he added. "So, we suspect that this could be a pivotal period for the greenback - either it turns around here or there is another 5% or so fall around the corner." In commodity markets, the general revival in risk sentiment has undermined gold, which slipped to $3,266 an ounce and further away from April's record top of $3,500. Oil prices continued to struggle on concerns about plans for increased output from OPEC+, which contributed to a 12% slide last week. Brent dropped a further 55 cents to $67.22 a barrel, while U.S. crude eased 68 cents to $64.84 per barrel. - Reuters
The Advertiser
30-06-2025
- Business
- The Advertiser
Asia shares track Wall St gains before payrolls test
Asia shares have firmed as seemingly unquenchable demand for technology companies lifted S&P 500 futures to another all-time peak, while the dollar dipped on concerns US jobs data will show enough weakness to justify larger rate cuts. Investors were also keeping a wary eye on the progress of a huge US tax-cutting and spending bill slowly making its way through the Senate, with signs it may not make it by President Donald Trump's preferred July 4 deadline. The Congressional Budget Office estimated the bill would add $US3.3 trillion ($A5.1 trillion) to the nation's debt, testing foreign appetite for US Treasuries. There was no doubting the demand for the US tech sector and megacap growth stocks including Nvidia, Alphabet and Amazon. Nasdaq futures rose another 0.3 per cent, while S&P 500 e-minis added 0.2 per cent. The bullish sentiment spilled over into Japan's Nikkei which rose 1.0 per cent in early trade on Monday, while South Korean stocks gained 0.5 per cent. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan firmed 0.1 per cent. A holiday on Friday means US payrolls are a day early, with analysts forecasting a rise of 110,000 in June with the jobless rate ticking up to 4.3 per cent. The resilience of the labour market is a major reason the majority of Federal Reserve members say they can afford to wait on cutting rates until they can gauge the true impact of tariffs on inflation, so a weak report would stoke speculation of a rate cut in July rather than September. "While initial jobless claims retreated somewhat from their recent high, continuing claims jumped higher yet again," noted Michael Feroli, head of US economics at JPMorgan. "Consumers' assessment of labour market conditions also deteriorated in the latest confidence report." "Both of these developments suggest that the unemployment rate in June should tick up to 4.3 per cent, with a significant risk of reaching 4.4 per cent." The latter outcome would likely see futures push up the chance of a July easing from the current 18 per cent and price in more than the present 63 basis points of cuts for this year. Fed Chair Jerome Powell will have an opportunity to repeat his cautious outlook when he joins several other central bank chiefs at the European Central Bank forum in Sintra on Tuesday. The prospect of an eventual policy easing has helped Treasuries weather worries about the US budget deficit and the huge amount of borrowing it entails. Yields on 10-year Treasuries were steady at 3.27 per cent, having fallen 9 basis points last week. The dollar has not fared so well, in part due to concerns tariffs and chaotic policies from the White House will drag on economic growth and erode the country's claim to exceptionalism. The euro was near its highest since September 2021 at $1.1731, having climbed 1.7 per cent last week, while sterling stood near a similar peak at $1.3719. The dollar was down a fraction at 144.48 yen, after losing one per cent last week, while the dollar index dipped to 97.163. James Reilly, a senior markets economist at Capital Economics, noted the dollar had fallen by more at this stage in the year than in any previous year since the US moved to a free-floating exchange rate in 1973. "At this point, further weakness could become self-reinforcing as underhedged European/Asian portfolios chase the move," he added. "So, we suspect that this could be a pivotal period for the greenback - either it turns around here or there is another five per cent or so fall around the corner." In commodity markets, the general revival in risk sentiment has undermined gold, which slipped to $US3,266 ($A4,999) an ounce and further away from April's record top of $US3,500 ($A5,357). Oil prices continued to struggle on concerns about plans for increased output from OPEC+, which contributed to a 12 per cent slide last week. Brent dropped a further 55 cents to $US67.22 ($A102.88) a barrel, while US crude eased 68 cents to $US64.84 ($A99.24) per barrel. Asia shares have firmed as seemingly unquenchable demand for technology companies lifted S&P 500 futures to another all-time peak, while the dollar dipped on concerns US jobs data will show enough weakness to justify larger rate cuts. Investors were also keeping a wary eye on the progress of a huge US tax-cutting and spending bill slowly making its way through the Senate, with signs it may not make it by President Donald Trump's preferred July 4 deadline. The Congressional Budget Office estimated the bill would add $US3.3 trillion ($A5.1 trillion) to the nation's debt, testing foreign appetite for US Treasuries. There was no doubting the demand for the US tech sector and megacap growth stocks including Nvidia, Alphabet and Amazon. Nasdaq futures rose another 0.3 per cent, while S&P 500 e-minis added 0.2 per cent. The bullish sentiment spilled over into Japan's Nikkei which rose 1.0 per cent in early trade on Monday, while South Korean stocks gained 0.5 per cent. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan firmed 0.1 per cent. A holiday on Friday means US payrolls are a day early, with analysts forecasting a rise of 110,000 in June with the jobless rate ticking up to 4.3 per cent. The resilience of the labour market is a major reason the majority of Federal Reserve members say they can afford to wait on cutting rates until they can gauge the true impact of tariffs on inflation, so a weak report would stoke speculation of a rate cut in July rather than September. "While initial jobless claims retreated somewhat from their recent high, continuing claims jumped higher yet again," noted Michael Feroli, head of US economics at JPMorgan. "Consumers' assessment of labour market conditions also deteriorated in the latest confidence report." "Both of these developments suggest that the unemployment rate in June should tick up to 4.3 per cent, with a significant risk of reaching 4.4 per cent." The latter outcome would likely see futures push up the chance of a July easing from the current 18 per cent and price in more than the present 63 basis points of cuts for this year. Fed Chair Jerome Powell will have an opportunity to repeat his cautious outlook when he joins several other central bank chiefs at the European Central Bank forum in Sintra on Tuesday. The prospect of an eventual policy easing has helped Treasuries weather worries about the US budget deficit and the huge amount of borrowing it entails. Yields on 10-year Treasuries were steady at 3.27 per cent, having fallen 9 basis points last week. The dollar has not fared so well, in part due to concerns tariffs and chaotic policies from the White House will drag on economic growth and erode the country's claim to exceptionalism. The euro was near its highest since September 2021 at $1.1731, having climbed 1.7 per cent last week, while sterling stood near a similar peak at $1.3719. The dollar was down a fraction at 144.48 yen, after losing one per cent last week, while the dollar index dipped to 97.163. James Reilly, a senior markets economist at Capital Economics, noted the dollar had fallen by more at this stage in the year than in any previous year since the US moved to a free-floating exchange rate in 1973. "At this point, further weakness could become self-reinforcing as underhedged European/Asian portfolios chase the move," he added. "So, we suspect that this could be a pivotal period for the greenback - either it turns around here or there is another five per cent or so fall around the corner." In commodity markets, the general revival in risk sentiment has undermined gold, which slipped to $US3,266 ($A4,999) an ounce and further away from April's record top of $US3,500 ($A5,357). Oil prices continued to struggle on concerns about plans for increased output from OPEC+, which contributed to a 12 per cent slide last week. Brent dropped a further 55 cents to $US67.22 ($A102.88) a barrel, while US crude eased 68 cents to $US64.84 ($A99.24) per barrel. Asia shares have firmed as seemingly unquenchable demand for technology companies lifted S&P 500 futures to another all-time peak, while the dollar dipped on concerns US jobs data will show enough weakness to justify larger rate cuts. Investors were also keeping a wary eye on the progress of a huge US tax-cutting and spending bill slowly making its way through the Senate, with signs it may not make it by President Donald Trump's preferred July 4 deadline. The Congressional Budget Office estimated the bill would add $US3.3 trillion ($A5.1 trillion) to the nation's debt, testing foreign appetite for US Treasuries. There was no doubting the demand for the US tech sector and megacap growth stocks including Nvidia, Alphabet and Amazon. Nasdaq futures rose another 0.3 per cent, while S&P 500 e-minis added 0.2 per cent. The bullish sentiment spilled over into Japan's Nikkei which rose 1.0 per cent in early trade on Monday, while South Korean stocks gained 0.5 per cent. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan firmed 0.1 per cent. A holiday on Friday means US payrolls are a day early, with analysts forecasting a rise of 110,000 in June with the jobless rate ticking up to 4.3 per cent. The resilience of the labour market is a major reason the majority of Federal Reserve members say they can afford to wait on cutting rates until they can gauge the true impact of tariffs on inflation, so a weak report would stoke speculation of a rate cut in July rather than September. "While initial jobless claims retreated somewhat from their recent high, continuing claims jumped higher yet again," noted Michael Feroli, head of US economics at JPMorgan. "Consumers' assessment of labour market conditions also deteriorated in the latest confidence report." "Both of these developments suggest that the unemployment rate in June should tick up to 4.3 per cent, with a significant risk of reaching 4.4 per cent." The latter outcome would likely see futures push up the chance of a July easing from the current 18 per cent and price in more than the present 63 basis points of cuts for this year. Fed Chair Jerome Powell will have an opportunity to repeat his cautious outlook when he joins several other central bank chiefs at the European Central Bank forum in Sintra on Tuesday. The prospect of an eventual policy easing has helped Treasuries weather worries about the US budget deficit and the huge amount of borrowing it entails. Yields on 10-year Treasuries were steady at 3.27 per cent, having fallen 9 basis points last week. The dollar has not fared so well, in part due to concerns tariffs and chaotic policies from the White House will drag on economic growth and erode the country's claim to exceptionalism. The euro was near its highest since September 2021 at $1.1731, having climbed 1.7 per cent last week, while sterling stood near a similar peak at $1.3719. The dollar was down a fraction at 144.48 yen, after losing one per cent last week, while the dollar index dipped to 97.163. James Reilly, a senior markets economist at Capital Economics, noted the dollar had fallen by more at this stage in the year than in any previous year since the US moved to a free-floating exchange rate in 1973. "At this point, further weakness could become self-reinforcing as underhedged European/Asian portfolios chase the move," he added. "So, we suspect that this could be a pivotal period for the greenback - either it turns around here or there is another five per cent or so fall around the corner." In commodity markets, the general revival in risk sentiment has undermined gold, which slipped to $US3,266 ($A4,999) an ounce and further away from April's record top of $US3,500 ($A5,357). Oil prices continued to struggle on concerns about plans for increased output from OPEC+, which contributed to a 12 per cent slide last week. Brent dropped a further 55 cents to $US67.22 ($A102.88) a barrel, while US crude eased 68 cents to $US64.84 ($A99.24) per barrel. Asia shares have firmed as seemingly unquenchable demand for technology companies lifted S&P 500 futures to another all-time peak, while the dollar dipped on concerns US jobs data will show enough weakness to justify larger rate cuts. Investors were also keeping a wary eye on the progress of a huge US tax-cutting and spending bill slowly making its way through the Senate, with signs it may not make it by President Donald Trump's preferred July 4 deadline. The Congressional Budget Office estimated the bill would add $US3.3 trillion ($A5.1 trillion) to the nation's debt, testing foreign appetite for US Treasuries. There was no doubting the demand for the US tech sector and megacap growth stocks including Nvidia, Alphabet and Amazon. Nasdaq futures rose another 0.3 per cent, while S&P 500 e-minis added 0.2 per cent. The bullish sentiment spilled over into Japan's Nikkei which rose 1.0 per cent in early trade on Monday, while South Korean stocks gained 0.5 per cent. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan firmed 0.1 per cent. A holiday on Friday means US payrolls are a day early, with analysts forecasting a rise of 110,000 in June with the jobless rate ticking up to 4.3 per cent. The resilience of the labour market is a major reason the majority of Federal Reserve members say they can afford to wait on cutting rates until they can gauge the true impact of tariffs on inflation, so a weak report would stoke speculation of a rate cut in July rather than September. "While initial jobless claims retreated somewhat from their recent high, continuing claims jumped higher yet again," noted Michael Feroli, head of US economics at JPMorgan. "Consumers' assessment of labour market conditions also deteriorated in the latest confidence report." "Both of these developments suggest that the unemployment rate in June should tick up to 4.3 per cent, with a significant risk of reaching 4.4 per cent." The latter outcome would likely see futures push up the chance of a July easing from the current 18 per cent and price in more than the present 63 basis points of cuts for this year. Fed Chair Jerome Powell will have an opportunity to repeat his cautious outlook when he joins several other central bank chiefs at the European Central Bank forum in Sintra on Tuesday. The prospect of an eventual policy easing has helped Treasuries weather worries about the US budget deficit and the huge amount of borrowing it entails. Yields on 10-year Treasuries were steady at 3.27 per cent, having fallen 9 basis points last week. The dollar has not fared so well, in part due to concerns tariffs and chaotic policies from the White House will drag on economic growth and erode the country's claim to exceptionalism. The euro was near its highest since September 2021 at $1.1731, having climbed 1.7 per cent last week, while sterling stood near a similar peak at $1.3719. The dollar was down a fraction at 144.48 yen, after losing one per cent last week, while the dollar index dipped to 97.163. James Reilly, a senior markets economist at Capital Economics, noted the dollar had fallen by more at this stage in the year than in any previous year since the US moved to a free-floating exchange rate in 1973. "At this point, further weakness could become self-reinforcing as underhedged European/Asian portfolios chase the move," he added. "So, we suspect that this could be a pivotal period for the greenback - either it turns around here or there is another five per cent or so fall around the corner." In commodity markets, the general revival in risk sentiment has undermined gold, which slipped to $US3,266 ($A4,999) an ounce and further away from April's record top of $US3,500 ($A5,357). Oil prices continued to struggle on concerns about plans for increased output from OPEC+, which contributed to a 12 per cent slide last week. Brent dropped a further 55 cents to $US67.22 ($A102.88) a barrel, while US crude eased 68 cents to $US64.84 ($A99.24) per barrel.
