3 days ago
Microsoft's Upgrade Mistake For 400 Million Windows Users
This huge reversal has an equally huge problem.
What a difference a week makes. Microsoft has suddenly 'given up' and confirmed the inevitable. Windows 10 support will be extended at no cost until October 2026. So it seems the October 2025 hard red line was neither as hard nor as red as expected. Unfortunately, it seems this is a mistake affecting more than 400 million users.
Ironically, after years of trying, the week Microsoft chose to drop this bombshell was also the week its Windows 11 upgrade campaign finally started hitting home, with the newer version of the OS catching Windows 10's market share for the first time.
The current Windows 10 user base divides into two camps. Somewhere around 400 million users with PCs eligible to upgrade and around 240 million that can't. With the upgrade program working, Microsoft should have limited its free support extension to only those with ineligible PCs. That's where the upgrade complexity and cost lies.
Instead, any users favoring Windows 10 who would balk at paying the expected $30 12-month ESU price get a free extension, subject to using Microsoft's cloud backup. It will be fascinating to see what happens to those upgrade stats over the coming weeks.
Windows 11 finally catches Windows 10
In my view, Microsoft has missed a trick and this is a mistake. There was a genuine case to give ineligible PC owners more time to upgrade hardware, without giving the entire Windows 10 user base a break. The fear now is this just kicks the problem down the road, stopping or even reversing the accelerating upgrade train for eligible PCs.
This is the second softening of the hard red line in recent weeks, with the other concession being a three-year security support extension for office apps on Windows 10, which had been expected to disappear come October this year.
Windows 10's free extension
On that note, there is a word of caution for Windows 10 users. Microsoft's blogpost announcing the free extension also promised it 'will continue to provide Security Intelligence Updates for Microsoft Defender Antivirus on Windows 10 through October 2028.' This is not the same as full security support and should not be treated as such. The extension is a one-year deal not a three-year deal, despite some reports.
Windows Latest has published a first look at the new ESU wizard, which lists the three options: Cloud backup, reward points or $30. It then confirms that support is extended beyond October. "In our tests, it just takes a few seconds to extend support. You'll see the 'Enroll now' button on the right side of the Windows Update."
Obviously, 'you don't need to meet Windows 11 requirements to be eligible for Extended Security updates," which would be counter-intuitive. But neither is it disabled if you do.
'Right now, this enrollment feature works only in the Windows Insider Program,' Windows Latest says. 'You don't have to join the program for the 'Enroll now' button, as Microsoft says it will roll out the feature to everyone in the coming weeks.'
