Latest news with #MiddleEastDiplomacy


The Guardian
04-07-2025
- Politics
- The Guardian
Europe is scrambling to form a united front and regain relevance in the Iran crisis
Exposed as divided and marginalised during the Iran crisis, European nations are scrambling to retrieve a place at the Middle East negotiating table, fearing an impulsive Donald Trump has diminishing interest in stabilising Iran or the wider region now that he believes he has achieved his key objective of wiping out Tehran's nuclear programme. On Tuesday the EU's top diplomat, Kaja Kallas, was the latest senior European figure to phone the Iranian foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, offering to be a facilitator and urging Tehran not to leave the crisis in a dangerous limbo by keeping UN weapons inspectors out of Iran. The French president, Emmanuel Macron, has even broken a three-year silence to speak to Vladimir Putin about the risk of nuclear proliferation in the Middle East, including how a deal could be struck between Iran and the US on a restricted civil nuclear programme. Macron has been involved in Iranian diplomacy for a decade and came close to engineering a rapprochement between Trump and the then Iranian president, Hassan Rouhani, at the UN general assembly in 2018. But faced with what Iran regards as craven European support for Israeli and American airstrikes that have left more than 930 people killed and as many as 5,000 injured, Tehran is not placing much faith in the continent's ability to influence the White House. For Europe, this signals a slow slide into irrelevance. The three major European powers known as the E3 – France, Germany and the UK – were once key fixtures in Iran's diplomacy and played a central role in brokering the Iran nuclear deal which they signed alongside the EU, the US, China, Russia and Iran in 2015. Europe had little input in the US's recent negotiating strategy with Iran led by Trump's special envoy to the Middle East, Steve Witkoff, and was given just over an hour's official warning before the Israeli and US attacks. The one meeting that the E3 foreign minsters held during the crisis with Iranian diplomats in Geneva on 20 June proved a failure and was followed by the US strikes on Iran's nuclear facilities. France claimed to have helped Israel repel Iranian drones. Trump crowed afterwards that 'Iran doesn't want to speak to Europe. They want to speak to us. Europe is not going to be able to help in this one.' From the Iranian perspective, Europe has long been a disappointing negotiating partner, repeatedly failing to show any independence from the US. When Trump withdrew the US from the nuclear deal in 2018, the E3 condemned the move in a joint statement issued by their then-leaders, Angela Merkel, Theresa May and Macron. But they did nothing effective to pursue an independent strategy to lift European sanctions on Iran as they had promised. The fear that European firms trading with Iran would be sanctioned by the US was too great. The view from Tehran, it was felt, was that Europe's timidity left it with no choice but to follow the policy of nuclear brinkmanship, including gradually increasing its stockpile of enriched uranium. At the start of Trump's second term, the E3 plus Kallas tried again to insert themselves into the process by holding three low-key meetings with Iranian negotiators. But Araghchi was always angling to speak to Washington, telling the Guardian of his discussions with the Europeans: 'Perhaps we are talking to the wrong people.' After Trump signalled he was willing to speak to Iran bilaterally and showed some flexibility about Tehran's right to enrich uranium, Iran cast Europe aside. Iran believes Europe played a role either through naivety or complicity in opening the door for the Israeli attack by tabling a motion of censure at the board of the UN nuclear inspectorate, the International Atomic Energy Agency. Such motions have been passed before at the IAEA and usually led to Iran retaliating by increasing its stocks of enriched uranium. But the 12 June motion was different – for the first time in 20 years the board found Iran in breach of its obligations under the nuclear non-proliferation treaty. Europe had to take this step if it is to use its right as a signatory to the 2015 deal to reimpose sanctions on Iran before the deal expires on 15 October. Due to the way the deal was negotiated, neither Russia nor China can veto Europe reimposing sanctions. America is no longer party to the deal so this power to reintroduce UN sanctions is Europe's diplomatic re-entry point into the Iranian file. European diplomats insist that the IAEA censure motion was necessary, that they had no option due to Iran's mounting stocks of highly enriched uranium that had no possible purpose in a civilian nuclear programme. Europe also still hoped the talks between the US and Iran, mediated by Oman, would bear fruit, and had not foreseen the US giving the green light for Israel to attack. Since the Israeli strikes, European unity has frayed further. Britain has largely opted for opacity, but it was clear from what ministers did not say that the government's legal advice was that the Israeli attack could not be justified as an act of self-defence under the UN charter. France openly asserted that the attack was unlawful. By contrast, Germany endorsed all that Israel has done. At the G7 summit in mid-June, the chancellor, Friedrich Merz, said: 'This is the dirty work that Israel is doing, for all of us.' Germany's foreign minister, Johann Wadephul, told parliament that 'Israel has the right to defend itself and protect its people. Let me say clearly that, if Israel and the US have now managed to set back the Iranian nuclear programme, it will make Israel and its neighbourhood more secure.' Asked by the newspaper Die Zeit if he believed Israel's actions were lawful, he said Germany did not have the same quality intelligence sources as the US and Israel, but he had to trust their belief that Iran was close to acquiring a nuclear weapon. 'They told us that, from their perspective, this is necessary – and we must accept that.' Such remarks have left Iranian diplomats spitting about European double standards over the sanctity of international law. By contrast, Enrique Mora, the EU's point person on Iran from 2015 to early 2025, has written a scathing piece in which he says Israel has killed nuclear diplomacy and Iran's nuclear knowledge cannot be destroyed. He wrote: 'If Iran now chooses the militarization of its nuclear capabilities, if it now decides to move toward a bomb, it will do so following a clear strategic logic: no one bombs the capital of a nuclear-armed country. June 21, 2025, may go down in history not as the day the Iranian nuclear programme was destroyed, but as the day a nuclear Iran was irreversibly born.' There are different strategies Europe can pursue. It can, like Germany, show Iran there is no daylight between the E3 and Israel and assert that Iran can only have a civil nuclear programme that excludes domestic enrichment of uranium. It can press ahead with the reimposition of sanctions and hope that Iran buckles. The alternative is for Europe to champion a compromise that Tehran can wear. In a recent statement, the European Council on Foreign Relations said 'maximalist demands on Iran – including negotiating over missiles now viewed by Tehran as its main deterrence umbrella – will likely push the country to use every means still available to reach nuclear breakout. A more viable endgame would involve a return of wide scale inspections by international monitors and an immediate, substantial roll-back of Iranian uranium enrichment. The goal should be Iran pursuing this enrichment through a regional consortium backed by the United States.' That is broadly closer to the French position. Europe will never hold sway like Israel or the US, but it has one last chance to help create something durable, and prevent the Iranian crisis becoming a nuclear proliferation crisis for the whole region.


The Independent
25-06-2025
- Politics
- The Independent
Starmer joins world leaders at Nato summit to discuss defence and Israel-Iran tensions
Tensions between Israel and Iran will dominate discussions between world leaders at the Nato summit as a fragile ceasefire between the nations appears to be holding. Sir Keir Starmer is among world leaders in The Hague for a gathering of the military alliance, having called on nations in the Middle East nations to keep the fighting on hold. Sir Keir discussed the 'volatile situation' in the Middle East with his French and German counterparts on Tuesday, with the trio agreeing 'now was the time for diplomacy and for Iran to come to the negotiating table', Downing Street said. The prime minister will take centre stage at the summit on Wednesday, touting a pledge to buy 12 new fighter jets capable of carrying nuclear bombs in the 'biggest strengthening of the UK's nuclear posture in a generation'. It comes as the main agenda item for world leaders is defence spending, with Nato members having agreed to up their budgets to 5 per cent of national income in a bid to appease Mr Trump. Sir Keir is expected to arrive at 9.00am local time before heading to the leaders lounge for informal chats with other world leaders. He will then attend the official welcome ceremony at 10.00am, being greeted by his Dutch counterpart Dick Schoof and Nato secretary general Mark Rutte. There will be an official meeting of Nato leaders at 10.30am before they separate for bilateral meetings before the prime minister's press conference at 2.15pm. That comes as intelligence reports suggested that US strikes on Iran's nuclear programme over the weekend only set it back by a few months, rather than destroying it as Donald Trump previously suggested. The White House pushed back on the reports on Tuesday evening, with press secretary Karoline Leavitt saying it was 'flat out wrong'. 'The leaking of this alleged assessment is a clear attempt to demean President Trump, and discredit the brave fighter pilots who conducted a perfectly executed mission to obliterate Iran's nuclear programme,' she said in a statement. Mr Trump also condemned the leak in a post on Truth Social, calling the US raid 'one of the most successful military strikes in history'. 'THE NUCLEAR SITES IN IRAN ARE COMPLETELY DESTROYED! BOTH THE TIIMES AND CNN ARE GETTING SLAMMED BY THE PUBLIC!' he wrote. Sir Keir had previously praised the US for helping 'alleviate' the threat of Iranian nuclear capability with the bombings. Asked on his visit to The Hague whether he personally felt safe with Mr Trump in the White House and why others should, the prime minister told Channel 5 News: 'Look, I think what we've seen over the last few days is the Americans alleviating a threat to nuclear weaponry by the Iranians and bringing about a ceasefire in the early hours of today. 'I think now what needs to happen is that ceasefire needs to be maintained, and that will be the focus of our attention, our engagement, our discussions, because that ceasefire provides the space for the negotiations that need to take place.' After the ceasefire was initially struck early on Tuesday, Israel claimed Iran had violated the deal by carrying out strikes after it came into force. Mr Trump called for Israel to withdraw its warplanes, and claimed both it and Iran 'don't know what the f*** they're doing' as he departed for the summit in the Netherlands. The UK has continued to evacuate Britons out of Israel, and a second flight left Tel Aviv on Tuesday. The Foreign Office confirmed the plane had left Israel and said further flights would be considered depending on demand. Meanwhile, the Liberal Democrats have said that MPs should be given a vote in the event of any future deployment of troops. The party's foreign affairs spokesman Calum Miller said: 'With the Middle East in the throes of an all-out regional war, we are reckoning once again with the prospect of the UK becoming embroiled in foreign conflict. 'No one knows the fragility of peace in that region, or the price paid for our safety, better than our British troops. It's critical that, if they are asked to put their lives on the line for the UK in active conflict zones, this decision is subject to the strongest democratic scrutiny our country can offer.'


The Independent
25-06-2025
- Politics
- The Independent
World leaders gather to discuss defence amid Israel-Iran tensions
Tensions between Israel and Iran could dominate discussions among world leaders at the Nato summit amid a fragile ceasefire. Sir Keir Starmer is among those in The Hague for a gathering of the alliance, having called on the Middle Eastern nations to maintain the pause in hostilities. In a conversation with the French and German leaders at the summit on Tuesday, Sir Keir 'reflected on the volatile situation in the Middle East,' according to a Downing Street spokeswoman. The leaders agreed that 'now was the time for diplomacy and for Iran to come to the negotiating table', the spokeswoman added. It comes as intelligence reports in the US suggested that the American attack on Iran's nuclear programme over the weekend have only set it back by a few months, rather than destroyed it as Donald Trump previously suggested. The White House pushed back on the reports on Tuesday evening, with press secretary Karoline Leavitt saying it was 'flat out wrong'. 'The leaking of this alleged assessment is a clear attempt to demean President Trump, and discredit the brave fighter pilots who conducted a perfectly executed mission to obliterate Iran's nuclear programme,' she said in a statement. Mr Trump also condemned the leak in a post on Truth Social, calling the US raid 'one of the most successful military strikes in history'. 'THE NUCLEAR SITES IN IRAN ARE COMPLETELY DESTROYED! BOTH THE TIIMES AND CNN ARE GETTING SLAMMED BY THE PUBLIC!' he wrote. Earlier on Tuesday, Sir Keir had said that the US had helped in 'alleviating' the threat of nuclear capability for Iran with their strikes on Saturday. Asked on his visit to The Hague whether he personally felt safe with Mr Trump in the White House and why others should, the Prime Minister told Channel 5 News: 'Look, I think what we've seen over the last few days is the Americans alleviating a threat to nuclear weaponry by the Iranians and bringing about a ceasefire in the early hours of today. 'I think now what needs to happen is that ceasefire needs to be maintained, and that will be the focus of our attention, our engagement, our discussions, because that ceasefire provides the space for the negotiations that need to take place.' After the ceasefire was initially struck early on Tuesday, Israel claimed Iran had violated the deal by carrying out strikes after it came into force. Mr Trump called for Israel to withdraw its warplanes, and claimed both it and Iran 'don't know what the f*** they're doing' as he departed for the summit in the Netherlands. The UK has continued to evacuate Britons out of Israel, and a second flight left Tel Aviv on Tuesday. The Foreign Office confirmed the plane had left Israel and said further flights would be considered depending on demand. Meanwhile, the Liberal Democrats have said that MPs should be given a vote in the event of any future deployment of troops. The party's foreign affairs spokesman Calum Miller said: 'With the Middle East in the throes of an all-out regional war, we are reckoning once again with the prospect of the UK becoming embroiled in foreign conflict. 'No one knows the fragility of peace in that region, or the price paid for our safety, better than our British troops. It's critical that, if they are asked to put their lives on the line for the UK in active conflict zones, this decision is subject to the strongest democratic scrutiny our country can offer.'


South China Morning Post
15-06-2025
- Politics
- South China Morning Post
As Israel-Iran conflict rages, Russia eyes Middle East power broker role
Russia has maintained a delicate balancing act in the Middle East for decades, trying to navigate its warm relations with Israel even as it has developed strong economic and military ties with Iran. Israel's military strikes this weekend on Iranian nuclear and military facilities, killing top generals and scientists, and Tehran's response with drones and missiles, put Moscow in an awkward position, requiring fine diplomatic skills to preserve ties with both parties. But it also could open opportunities for Russia to possibly become a power broker to help end the confrontation. Some observers in Moscow also argue that the focus on the confrontation between Israel and Iran could distract global attention from the war in Ukraine and play into Russia's hands by potentially weakening Western support for Kyiv. Russian President Vladimir Putin spoke to both Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, offering to help de-escalate the conflict. In his call with Pezeshkian, Putin condemned the Israeli strikes and offered his condolences. He noted that Russia has put forward specific initiatives aimed at resolving the situation around the Iranian nuclear programme. Russia's foreign ministry issued a strongly worded statement condemning the Israeli strikes as 'categorically unacceptable' and warning that 'all the consequences of this provocation will fall on the Israeli leadership'. It urged both parties 'to exercise restraint in order to prevent further escalation of tensions and keep the region from sliding into a full-scale war'.


Washington Post
15-06-2025
- Politics
- Washington Post
Russia's strong ties with both Israel and Iran could help it emerge as a power broker
Russia has maintained a delicate balancing act in the Middle East for decades, trying to navigate its warm relations with Israel even as it has developed strong economic and military ties with Iran. Israel's military strikes this weekend on Iranian nuclear and military facilities, killing top generals and scientists, and Tehran's response with drones and missiles, put Moscow in an awkward position, requiring fine diplomatic skills to preserve ties with both parties. But it also could open opportunities for Russia to possibly become a power broker to help end the confrontation. Some observers in Moscow also argue that the focus on the confrontation between Israel and Iran could distract global attention from the war in Ukraine and play into Russia's hands by potentially weakening Western support for Kyiv. Russian President Vladimir Putin spoke to both Israel Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, offering to help de-escalate the conflict. In his call with Pezeshkian, Putin condemned the Israeli strikes and offered his condolences. He noted that Russia has put forward specific initiatives aimed at resolving the situation around the Iranian nuclear program. Russia's Foreign Ministry issued a strongly worded statement condemning the Israeli strikes as 'categorically unacceptable' and warning that 'all the consequences of this provocation will fall on the Israeli leadership.' It urged both parties 'to exercise restraint in order to prevent further escalation of tensions and keep the region from sliding into a full-scale war.' But despite the harshly worded condemnation of Israel's actions, Moscow hasn't issued any signal that it could offer anything beyond political support to Tehran despite a partnership treaty between the countries. In his call with Netanyahu, Putin 'emphasized the importance of returning to the negotiation process and resolving all issues related to the Iranian nuclear program exclusively through political and diplomatic means,' and he offered his mediation 'in order to prevent further escalation of tensions,' the Kremlin said in a readout. 'It was agreed that the Russian side will continue close contacts with the leadership of both Iran and Israel, aimed at resolving the current situation, which is fraught with the most disastrous consequences for the entire region,' it added. Putin and U.S. President Donald Trump discussed the escalating situation in the Middle East by phone Saturday. Putin's foreign affairs adviser Yuri Ushakov said the Kremlin leader emphasized Russia's readiness to carry out mediation efforts, and noted it had proposed steps 'aimed at finding mutually acceptable agreements' during U.S.-Iran negotiations on the Iranian nuclear program. Relations between Moscow and Tehran often were tense in the Cold War, when Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi was a U.S. ally. After the 1979 Islamic Revolution, leader Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini branded the U.S. as the 'Great Satan,' but also assailed the Soviet Union as the 'Lesser Satan.' Russia-Iran ties warmed quickly after the USSR's demise in 1991, when Moscow became an important trade partner and a top supplier of weapons and technology to Iran as it faced international sanctions. Russia built Iran's first nuclear power plant in the port of Bushehr that became operational in 2013. Russia was part of the 2015 deal between Iran and six nuclear powers, offering sanctions relief for Tehran in exchange for curbing its atomic program and opening it to broader international scrutiny. It offered political support when the U.S. unilaterally withdrew from the agreement during Trump's first term. After a civil war in Syria erupted in 2011, Russia and Iran pooled efforts to shore up Bashar Assad's government. They helped Assad reclaim most of the country but failed to prevent a swift collapse of his rule in December 2024 after a lightning opposition offensive. When Moscow launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, the West alleged that Tehran signed a deal with the Kremlin to deliver Shahed drones and later launch their production in Russia. In January, Putin and Pezeshkian signed the 'comprehensive strategic partnership' treaty that envisions close political, economic and military ties. During the Cold War, Moscow armed and trained Israel's Arab foes. Diplomatic relations with Israel ruptured in 1967 but were restored in 1991. Russian-Israeli ties quickly warmed after the collapse of the Soviet Union and have remained strong. Despite Moscow's close ties with Tehran, Putin has repeatedly demonstrated his readiness to take Israeli interests into account. He has maintained warm, personal ties with Netanyahu, who frequently traveled to Russia before the war in Ukraine. Russia and Israel have built a close political, economic and cultural relationship that helped them tackle delicate and divisive issues, including developments in Syria. It survived a tough test in 2018, when a Russian military reconnaissance aircraft was shot down by Syrian forces responding to an Israeli airstrike, killing all 15 people aboard. And even though Russia supplied Iran with sophisticated S-300 air defense missile systems, which Israel said were taken out during its strikes last year on Iran, Moscow has dragged its feet on deliveries of other weapons in an apparent response to Israeli worries. In particular, Russia has delayed providing advanced Su-35 fighter jets that Iran wants so it can upgrade its aging fleet. Israel, in its turn, appeared to take Moscow's interests into account by showing little enthusiasm for providing Ukraine with weapons in the 3-year-old war. The Kremlin's friendly ties with Israel has fueled discontent in Tehran, where some members of the political and military leadership reportedly were suspicious of Moscow's intentions. Maintaining good ties with both Israel and Iran could pay off now, placing Moscow in a position of a power broker trusted by both parties and a potential participant in any future deal on Tehran's nuclear program. Long before Friday's strikes, Putin discussed the mounting Middle East tensions in his calls with Trump, conversations that offered the Russian leader a chance to pivot away from the war in Ukraine and engage more broadly with Washington on global issues. Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov suggested in recent days that Russia could take highly enriched uranium from Iran and convert it into civilian reactor fuel as part of a potential agreement between the United States and Iran. Prospects for negotiating a deal under which Iran would accept tighter restrictions on its nuclear program appear dim after the Israeli strikes. But if talks resume, Russia's offer could emerge as a pivotal component of an agreement. Many observers believe the Israeli attacks will likely fuel global oil prices and help enrich Moscow at a time when its economy is struggling . 'It will destroy the hopes of Ukraine and its allies in Western Europe for a drop in Russian oil revenues that are essential for filling the military budget,' Moscow-based military analyst Ruslan Pukhov wrote in a commentary. Some commentators in Moscow also argue the confrontation in the Middle East will likely distract Western attention and resources from the war in Ukraine and make it easier for Russia to pursue its battlefield goals. 'The world's attention to Ukraine will weaken,' said pro-Kremlin analyst Sergei Markov. 'A war between Israel and Iran will help the Russian army's success in Ukraine.'