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Middle East Eye
13 hours ago
- Politics
- Middle East Eye
'Vindicated': Unscathed by war, Gulf states look to capitalise on Israel and Iran's losses
The Gulf states see two losers in the conflict between Israel and Iran, analysts and Arab officials tell Middle East Eye. Having squeaked through the hostilities with little damage themselves, leaders in the energy-rich Gulf are now in a position to tap their relative advantages in Israel and the Islamic Republic. Watching the smoke rise from Tehran was a change for leaders in Saudi Arabia and the UAE, who just a few years ago were fending off drones and missiles launched at them from Iran's allies, the Houthis in Yemen. Israeli warplanes made hay of Iran's weak air defences. Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps generals were assassinated, and ballistic missile launchers and arms factories were destroyed. The war culminated in the US bombing Iran's Fordow, Natanz and Isfahan nuclear facilities. And that is the aspect that US and Israeli officials are hammering home about the conflict in their interactions, three Arab officials told MEE. New MEE newsletter: Jerusalem Dispatch Sign up to get the latest insights and analysis on Israel-Palestine, alongside Turkey Unpacked and other MEE newsletters But for the first time in a generation, Arab rulers got to see how Israel would fare against a conventional army. Israeli encroachment stopped 'The Israelis showed strong spirit in supporting their military…They were brave. However, the home front in Israel couldn't take more than two weeks of missile strikes,' one Arab official told MEE, sharing an assessment of the war review in a leading Arab capital. MEE spoke with officials representing three Arab capitals for this article. All said that in their country's corridors of power, the assessment is that Israel was the first to signal it was ready for a ceasefire after having exhausted its list of military targets and seeing that the Islamic Republic was not facing collapse. 'Benjamin Netanyahu was on a rise until now,' Bader al-Saif, a professor at Kuwait University, told MEE. 'Of course, Israel demonstrated military superiority over Iran's skies. But Iran stopped the Israeli encroachment and hit back. The image of an invincible Israel with flawless air defence is broken.' 'The image of an invincible Israel with flawless air defence is broken' - Bader al-Saif, Kuwait University The perception of Israeli vulnerability is important to understand how the US's Arab allies will approach Israel in the future, experts say. It could give them more leverage with Israel, including states that normalised ties with it in 2020 under the Abraham Accords. The same goes for Tehran, the Arab officials told MEE. They expect Gulf leaders to offer investments to Tehran and are not ruling out high-level visits in the coming months. In April, Saudi Arabia's defence minister and brother of Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman visited Tehran. Despite saying Iran's nuclear programme has been 'blown up to kingdom come', US President Donald Trump says his administration will restart talks with Iran. Iran says its nuclear programme is "badly damaged". Either way, the Gulf states backed the nuclear talks, and their sway in Tehran could increase even more now, Arab officials told MEE. 'The Gulf gets a hearing in Washington. At the end of the day, that remains the tremendous leverage it has with Iran - calling up Trump in the middle of the night and him answering the phone,' one Arab diplomat told MEE. The UAE, Qatar and Saudi Arabia sealed deals for hundreds of billions of dollars with the US when Trump visited the region in May. At the time, they appeared to get concessions. Under pressure from Saudi Arabia, Trump stopped US attacks on the Houthis in Yemen, MEE revealed. He also lifted sanctions on Syria. 'The Israelis were brave...[but] the home front couldn't take more than two weeks of missile strikes' - Arab official The Gulf states were unable to stop Israel's attack on Iran. For a moment, it looked dicey. Although the UAE, Saudi Arabia and Qatar have differing priorities, experts say none of them wanted to see the US directly join Israel's offensive. In the end, all the Arab officials who spoke with MEE characterised the US strike on Iran's nuclear facilities as 'limited" or "minimal". Iran's retaliatory strike on al-Udeid military base in Qatar was coordinated well in advance with Gulf states, MEE reported. 'This crisis has really elevated the Gulf states' leadership,' Ayham Kamel, Middle East president at Edelman Public and Government Affairs, told MEE. 'They were able to play a behind-the-scenes diplomatic role and avoid any significant attack on their territory. They triangulated their cooperation to be inclusive of key states in the broader region, particularly Iran, Turkey and Israel,' he added. Sympathy with Iran? For years, the US tried to recruit Gulf states into an alliance with Israel to counter Iran. When Hezbollah dominated Lebanon, Bashar al-Assad ruled Syria, and the Houthis were lobbing missiles and drones at Saudi Arabia - that pitch was attractive. It reached its peak before the Hamas-led 7 October 2023 attack on southern Israel, when US Central Command tried to create a 'Middle East Nato' linking Israel to Gulf states and Egypt's air defence. But when Israel and Iran came to blows, instead of joining in Israel's offensive, the US's Arab allies lobbied Trump to stop the war. 'Right now, even among the ruling classes, there is more sympathy with Iran than there has been in a long time' - Patrick Theros, former US ambassador Israel and Iran exchanged direct fire twice in 2024. The US did receive some Saudi and Qatari support defending Israel last year. But Iran choreographed its missile barrages then. This round was the first bare-knuckled battle between them, with Israeli jets pounding Tehran and Iran hammering major cities like Tel Aviv and Haifa. Qatar, the UAE and Saudi Arabia all condemned Israel's attack on Iran. Qatar has historically maintained closer ties to the Islamic Republic, in part because they share the world's largest natural gas field. But this conflict saw the UAE and Saudi Arabia publicly and privately press for a ceasefire, two Arab officials told MEE. 'US and Israeli officials may not have anticipated how serious the Gulf is about de-escalation. They know now. Saudi Arabia is on the top of that list,' Patrick Theros, a former US diplomat who served as ambassador to Qatar and a high-ranking official in the UAE, told MEE. 'Right now, even among the ruling classes, including Saudi Arabia, there is more sympathy with Iran than there has been in a long time,' Theros said. Israel and US modified F-35s to enable Iran attack without refuelling, sources say Read More » Not so long ago, Israel may have been able to convince Saudi Arabia to join in its attack. In 2018, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman compared Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei to Hitler and said he was trying to 'conquer the world'. Then, Saudi Arabia became bogged down fighting Iran's allies in Yemen. In 2019, two major Saudi oil facilities were attacked. At the time, President Trump shrugged off the assault, which emanated from Iran. In the following years, Saudi Arabia moved to patch up ties with the Islamic Republic. In 2023, China brokered a rapprochement between Riyadh and Tehran. It worked for everyone during the war. The Strait of Hormuz, which China relies on for its oil shipments, remained open. Iranian oil exports soared despite Israeli attacks, and Saudi Arabia's oil installations were safe again. 'The Gulf isn't where it was at in 2019,' Saif, at Kuwait University, told MEE. "We [the Gulf] feel vindicated that we did not join the war.' Gaza ceasefire and normalisation The Gulf states' main focus is reducing their economies' dependence on oil revenue. Saudi Arabia has pushed through liberalising social reforms and is pursuing an ambitious Vision 2030 agenda that includes luxury Red Sea tourism. Both Riyadh and Abu Dhabi want to build AI data centres. One overlooked element of the change, Theros told MEE, is that the sectarian tensions that feed into the rivalry between Saudi Arabia and Iran in spheres of influence like Yemen and Syria have ebbed, as Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman pursues modernising social reforms. 'Now that Mohammed Bin Salman has de-Wahhabised Saudi Arabia, the rhetoric out of the clerics about the Shia has been curbed,' Theros said. 'That makes it harder for Israel to bring Saudi Arabia along.' If anything, public opinion in the Gulf has turned more negative towards Israel over its war on Gaza, where over 56,000 Palestinians have been killed. A poll released by The Washington Institute for Near East Policy in the first months of the Gaza war revealed 96 percent of people in Saudi Arabia oppose normalisation with Israel. Trump signalled on Wednesday that he wants to build out his fragile ceasefire between Israel and Iran to Gaza, where he said 'great progress is being made' to end the war. Ending that conflict is a prerequisite to any talk of normalising ties between Saudi Arabia and Israel. Under Saudi pressure, Trump refrained from lobbying the kingdom to cut a deal with Israel during his visit to Riyadh in May, but told Saudi Arabia, 'you'll be greatly honouring me' by doing so. Saudi Arabia says it needs to see Israel take irreversible steps towards a Palestinian state to normalise relations. Diplomats say that after the Israel-Iran war, the price Saudi Arabia will demand is going up. 'Saudi Arabia has a very good sense of where the Arab street is going,' one Arab official told MEE. 'It will insist on something serious.'
Middle East Eye
18 hours ago
- Politics
- Middle East Eye
At least 50 African people at risk of imminent execution in Saudi Arabia
Dozens of people from the Horn of Africa on death row in Saudi Arabia have been told that their executions could take place 'any day', inmates and their relatives told Middle East Eye. The men are all from Ethiopia and Somalia and have been convicted of drug trafficking, which carries a death sentence in Saudi Arabia. Held at the Najiran prison near the border with Yemen, inmates say they were notified several weeks ago that their sentences, typically beheadings, would be carried out soon. 'They have told us to say our goodbyes,' one of the convicted men, who preferred not to be named, told MEE. 'We were told that executions would begin shortly after Eid al-Adha, and now they have started.' New MEE newsletter: Jerusalem Dispatch Sign up to get the latest insights and analysis on Israel-Palestine, alongside Turkey Unpacked and other MEE newsletters A list of names of the convicted obtained by MEE includes 43 Ethiopians, and 13 Somalis. According to inmates, at least six were put to death over the past month. Rise in executions Amnesty International has documented at least 52 executions for drug-related offenses in the kingdom from January to April. Keen to soften the country's conservative image as part of its Vision 2030 economic reform programme and ahead of hosting of the 2034 Fifa World Cup, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman has enacted a whirlwind of reforms liberalising some elements of Saudi society. He has also repeatedly pledged to amend the country's harsh justice system, which lists adultery, apostasy and 'sorcery' as capital offences. Saudi Arabia is among the world's leading executioners. 'All of the Ethiopians and Somali executions we documented this year were linked to hashish possession or smuggling' - Duaa Dhainy, European Saudi Organization for Human Rights However, an unofficial moratorium on capital punishment for drug-related offences enacted in 2021 has been lifted. Executions have subsequently accelerated. Over 300 people were put to death last year, a record tally for the kingdom. This year, 100 executions were documented by May alone. One possible reason for the spike, according to experts, is that additional drugs appear to have been added to the list of those meriting capital punishment. 'We've monitored death-sentence cases of numerous foreign nationals for years, and drug offences are usually linked to substances like amphetamines or cocaine,' Duaa Dhainy, a researcher with the European Saudi Organization for Human Rights, told MEE. 'However, we've noticed that from 2024 onwards, many foreigners have been executed for possession of hashish, so they've expanded the offences that can lead to execution. All of the Ethiopians and Somali executions we documented this year were linked to hashish possession or smuggling.' For the family of 27-year-old Khalid Mohammed Ibrahim, the news the executions for drug offences were resuming has plunged them into heartache. Ibrahim's older brother insists his sibling is innocent and said it has been a harrowing seven years for the family since he was arrested. 'He tried to enter the country through Yemen,' Muleta told MEE. 'A border guard encouraged him to tell his jailers that he was a drug smuggler, saying it would get him sent to court and quickly cleared since there was no evidence. He believed them.' Fleeing persecution Muleta said Ibrahim was effectively forced out of his own country. Hailing from the town of Chelenqo in Ethiopia's Oromia region, he was among the students who took part in the Oromo protests of 2016, which eventually culminated in the resignation of Prime Minister Hailemariam Desalegn two years later. Both brothers were among thousands of youths jailed for taking part in the anti-government uprising, Muleta recalled. 'We were told that executions would begin shortly after Eid al-Adha, and now they have started' - prisoner at Najiran jail, Saudi Arabia Expelled from school and unable to apply for university, Ibrahim tried to move on with life, getting married and working as a labourer for a few years. But then his wife became pregnant. 'He wanted to afford a better life for his son, but [the government] closed all opportunities for him,' said Muleta. 'That is why he left Ethiopia.' Ibrahim never lived as a free man in Saudi Arabia, as he was detained immediately upon arrival in 2018. After 11 court appearances, he was sentenced to death in October 2019. He has never had the opportunity to meet his son, who is now eight years old. Dhainy said cases like Ibrahim's typically proceed through the courts to the royal court, Saudi Arabia's highest, where death sentences are signed by the king. 'However, sometimes the documents show that the accused never had a lawyer,' Dhainy said. Trade unions from 36 countries protest against Saudi Arabia's treatment of migrant workers Read More » 'Also, there is no guarantee that the detainee understood the charges, had a translator or was aware of the content of documents, including confessions, that they are sometimes made to sign.' Muleta said his brother told him that torture and beatings are commonplace at Najiran prison. Emotionally drained, the family's torment has been worse in recent weeks. 'It has been hell for my parents,' Muleta adds. 'They are going crazy. We have tried everything, we tried begging officials for help, but no one has done anything.' Several inmates on death row at Najiran also told MEE that their families have spent years pleading for assistance from their government, including Ethiopian diplomats based in Saudi Arabia. The Ethiopian Embassy in Saudi Arabia, which has a documented history of covering up the suffering of Ethiopians caught up in the Saudi judicial system, has been criticised for its inaction on the matter. Middle East Eye has asked Ambassador Muktar Kedir Abdu and the Ethiopian foreign ministry for comment, without response. Somali pressure In Somalia, intense media coverage and campaigning by families of death row inmates has led to the Somali government openly appealing to Saudi authorities for leniency, and greater public awareness of the danger. Hiiraan Online, a Somali news site, has covered the plight of Somalis sentenced to death in Saudi Arabia extensively. 'Our reporting has helped bring national and international attention to the plight of nearly 50 Somalis facing execution in Saudi Arabia - many of them coerced into smuggling under false pretences,' Dalmar Gure, editor-in-chief of Hiiraan Online, told MEE. 'Together with pressure from families, Somali media coverage helped spur diplomatic engagement, including talks on prisoner transfers and appeals for clemency.' The Najiran prison contingent isn't the only large group of Africans on death row in Saudi Arabia. Earlier this month, UN officials raised concerns about the imminent executions of 26 Egyptians held at Tabouk prison in the north on similar drug offences. They condemned the sentences as a 'violation of international law'. Last week, over 30 rights groups, mostly based in the Middle East and Africa, published an open letter calling on the crown prince to commute the death sentences of over a hundred Ethiopians, Egyptians and Somalis.
Middle East Eye
a day ago
- Health
- Middle East Eye
Two Gaza infants die under Israeli siege amid baby formula shortage
Two infants have died in Gaza under Israeli siege due to malnutrition and a lack of essential medical and nutritional supplies compounded by the shortage of baby formula. On Thursday, the two infants were announced dead at Nasser Hospital in the southern city of Khan Younis, where lead doctors have been making demands to key figures, organisations and authorities to let in essential types of baby formula and other medical necessities to ensure the wellbeing of mothers and their children. Mohammad al-Hams, father of 10-day-old Kinda al-Hams, told Middle East Eye that his daughter was admitted into an incubator soon after her caesarean birth. Not more than two weeks later, she died from a lack of medicine and nutrition, especially baby formula. "If there were treatments and medication available, our daughter would be with us right now, and we would've been joyful… but God is sufficient,' the father said tearfully. New MEE newsletter: Jerusalem Dispatch Sign up to get the latest insights and analysis on Israel-Palestine, alongside Turkey Unpacked and other MEE newsletters He indicated that there was a severe shortage of all medical and nutritional essentials. "These are the sacrifices of the war. These are the achievements [Benjamin] Netanyahu is presenting to his nation. 'The world is watching us, the Arab and Islamic world. They are watching our children die' - Mohammad al-Hams "The world is watching us, the Arab and Islamic world. They are watching our children die. They are happy while we sit here and cry, every day we are doing funeral prayers… God is sufficient." For nearly two years, alongside the relentless bombardments and deliberate targeting of hospitals, the Israeli military has been repeatedly accused by UN experts of using starvation as a weapon of war. The crisis peaked in March, with dozens of children dying of malnutrition and residents forced to eat grass. Under mounting international pressure, Israel "slightly" improved food access in some areas after its forces killed several foreign aid workers and a UN-backed report warned famine was imminent. But now, Israeli authorities are once again restricting life-saving food deliveries. According to the United Nations Children's Fund (Unicef), the number of malnourished children is increasing "at an alarming rate," with 5,119 children between the ages of six months and five years old admitted for treatment for acute malnutrition in just the month of May. Medical catastrophe Mahmoud Shoraab, uncle of five-month-old Nidal Shoraab, expressed anger that they have been calling for formula to be allowed into the besieged enclave for over a week, but "no one is trying to hear us out". "These children are innocent, God is sufficient over those who oppress children, may God take vengeance on them." Beside him, the mother and father of Nidal sobbed uncontrollably as they held the small body of their baby, saying that they would have given him the world if they could. Shoraab's nephew, who previously had no medical issues, also idied due to severe malnutrition. 'Catastrophic': Infants in Gaza battle to stay alive amid formula shortage Read More » He noted that another two children in the area were in critical condition as a result of the same ailment that has struck much of the blockaded strip's infants and children. "Save us, people of the world, save us, allow God to have mercy on you," he shouted. Over the past few weeks, medical personnel and health bodies in the Gaza Strip have been warning of a looming medical catastrophe. Dr Yasser Abu Ghalee, head of the children's section at Nasser Hospital, previously told MEE that most premature babies were in need of immediate attention after birth. "Most of the premature babies are brought to the incubator section [of the hospital], and we are trying as much as possible for these children because they are patients in the hospital," he added. Abu Ghalee explained that formula supplies are nearly depleted for babies placed in intensive care, and that there is none available for those not being directly treated. According to the Palestinian health ministry in Gaza, the few remaining operational health facilities in the besieged enclave are under severe threat due to a lack of medical supplies, continued forced expulsion orders and ongoing shelling. Moreover, the ministry indicated on Wednesday that 47 percent of the essential medicines list is at zero stock, while 65 percent of medical supplies are at zero stock.
Gulf Insider
a day ago
- Politics
- Gulf Insider
Israel's National Airline Offers 'Deep Discounts'
El Al, Israel's national airliner, has introduced heavily subsidized return flights on 25 June aimed at repatriating Israelis who fled during the recent war against Iran. The state-backed offer includes capped fares through the end of June – $99 from European cities and $649–699 from the US – roughly half the standard price. Once repatriation flights are full, remaining seats will become available to the general public. In Cyprus, where thousands of Israelis remain, emergency repatriation efforts continue. Cruise ships and diverted flights have brought back many in recent days, but Jewish community leaders warn that shelters and resources are overstretched as people await flights home. This campaign was triggered by the closure of Israeli airspace on June 13, after Iranian missile strikes damaged key infrastructure following Israeli attacks on top Iranian figures. Since the ceasefire went into effect on June 24,Israeli airports such as Ben Gurion and Haifa have fully reopened, and wartime travel restrictions – including the exit ban – have been lifted. While inbound flights have resumed, a cabinet resolution had required Israelis to obtain approval from an 'exceptions committee' before travelling abroad – but this is no longer necessary following the ceasefire. Foreign nationals have been permitted to leave via land or sea since the air ban, but Israeli citizens were previously barred from purchasing outbound flights. As a result, hundreds fled by yacht from Herzliya, Haifa, and Ashkelon, sailing to Cyprus before onward travel to Europe. Egypt emerged as another escape route. Sinai authorities raised the alert level due to an influx of Israelis via the Taba crossing. Security officials cautioned that the arrival wave could be used by Mossad operatives posing as tourists, presenting surveillance and destabilization risks. This movement sparked criticism from Egyptian activists, particularly given Cairo's crackdown on Gaza-bound aid convoys. 'It is outrageous that Israelis can walk into Sinai, but activists … are turned away,' one organizer told Middle East Eye (MEE). Many of those who fled hold dual citizenship – either immigrants who retained their original passports or Israeli-born citizens who later acquired second nationalities. Common destination countries include the US, EU states, Russia, and Ukraine. The repatriation campaign highlights growing contradictions. While Israel actively encourages returnees with subsidized flights, its wartime policies briefly trapped its own citizens abroad or forced them into risky sea evacuations. Also read: Ayatollah Claims 'Victory' Over Israel Which 'Almost Collapsed' In 1st Public Appearance Since Ceasefire
Middle East Eye
4 days ago
- Politics
- Middle East Eye
Grief and scepticism: Iranians ask what comes after the bombs stop
US President Donald Trump's announcement on Monday imposing a ceasefire on Israel and Iran, potentially ending what he is calling the "12-day war", has brought a measure of relief to some Iranians, but left others wondering if realities on the ground in the Islamic Republic have changed. 'Is it really over? Or will they strike again?' Mina, a 36-year-old sales and marketing consultant, wonders, unsure about whether to feel happy or exercise caution. 'I want to believe it's real. I want the war to be over. So many innocent people died. So many lives were destroyed. I just hope the bombings are finally done,' she told Middle East Eye. It didn't help that after Trump's announcement, both sides briefly continued exchanging strikes, forcing many to doubt that the ceasefire would hold. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian has since signalled that the conflict was over, provided Israel doesn't violate the ceasefire, and called Iran's military actions a 'great victory'. Iran's Supreme National Security Council put out a statement that seemed to suggest Iran would go along with the ceasefire. New MEE newsletter: Jerusalem Dispatch Sign up to get the latest insights and analysis on Israel-Palestine, alongside Turkey Unpacked and other MEE newsletters Israel has also said it would honour a ceasefire provided Iran doesn't violate it. Many Iranians are now more sceptical than ever about Israel and the US. Even those who oppose the Iranian government say they have lost all trust in the West's promises. 'Even American media admitted they fooled us, made us think everything was fine, so they could surprise us with an attack. How do we know they won't do it again?' Mohsen, 39, a real estate agent, told MEE. Iran's former ambassador to Croatia, Parviz Esmaeili, echoed that concern in a post on social media. 'Deception and psychological warfare are still central parts of Israel and the US operations against us,' he wrote. 'We need to be ready for bigger tricks.' The doubt and fear, however, are preferable to the reality of an active war. Ladan, 28, who lives in the Aghdasiyeh neighbourhood in northern Tehran, recalls the terror of the strikes by Israel on 23 June. 'Last night was the scariest night of my life,' she says. 'The number of Israeli fighter jets was terrifying. They filled the entire sky over Tehran. I had never seen anything like it in my life,' she continued. 'We could see death so clearly. The explosions kept getting closer. It felt like we were next.' 'Will this ceasefire bring my mom back?' The tragic reality for many Iranians is that the ceasefire feels irrelevant after having already lost loved ones. For them, no agreement can bring those people back. Siavash, 41, lost his mother to an Israeli air strike. 'Will this ceasefire bring my mom back?' he asks. 'She went to the local market to buy fruit. She put her groceries in the car, and right then, an Israeli fighter jet bombed a nearby apartment. The shrapnel hit her car, and she was killed instantly.' 'All that noise about missile power and security, it turned out to be mostly bluff' - Abbas, shop owner in Tehran Siavash complains that the civilian toll of the war has been completely neglected and that the media only talks about military losses. 'Do they even know how many women and children were killed in the Israeli attacks?' On 24 June, Iran's health minister, Mohammad-Reza Zafarghandi, said that Israeli air strikes had killed 606 people, and that 95 percent of those deaths happened while people were trapped under rubble. He didn't give an exact number of civilian casualties. Now, many in Iran are waiting to see how the government proceeds after the war. Public anger at the Islamic Republic has been rising in recent years, and some hoped this war might be a turning point - maybe an opportunity for the government to show greater care towards its people instead of trying to control them through fear. 'The government should realise it has no asset greater than the people,' Abbas, 67, who owns a carpet shop in Tehran's Grand Bazaar, said. 'All that noise about missile power and security - it turned out to be mostly bluff. Real strength comes from your people. When they trust you and believe in you, you can do amazing things. But right now, I don't see that trust.' He pauses, then adds, 'I hope they learn from this painful experience. If they don't change the way they rule, they'll just keep repeating the same old mistakes. It's time they made peace with their people.' - Only first names were used for safety reasons
