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NDTV
7 days ago
- Business
- NDTV
Iran May Have More Underground Nuclear Sites For Uranium Enrichment: Report
Despite a series of strikes on Iran's nuclear infrastructure, experts warn that the Islamic Republic likely has more underground sites that could be rapidly converted into uranium enrichment facilities. "I bet they dug a lot of facilities and didn't put anything in them," Jeffrey Lewis, professor at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies, told The NY Post. "Then they have opportunities to move different things around [like the materials from Fordow] and to bring different facilities into operation." The warning comes amid questions about the fate of Iran's nuclear stockpile. While President Donald Trump declared that Iran's key sites at Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan were "completely and totally obliterated," US and Israeli intelligence now believe Tehran moved a substantial amount of enriched uranium and equipment out before the attacks. "We don't know what was taken away but, obviously, it was something important," said David Albright, president of the Institute for Science and International Security. "They had stocks [of enriched uranium] and they had centrifuges. So, those are things they could have removed." Mr Albright has previously identified a new underground complex south of Natanz, which he says could be converted into a fully operational enrichment facility. "Could be [where the uranium went]," he said. "But I think Israel would know that, they certainly are capable of following those trucks." He said Iran is unlikely to resume enrichment immediately, as the regime is too destabilised and risk-averse in the short term. Still, Mr Albright warned the pause may not last. Within "six months", Tehran could regroup and begin operating centrifuges to enrich uranium to 60 per cent. Emily Harding, director of the Intelligence and National Security and Technology Project at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said Iran's nuclear strategy is defined by redundancy and long-term planning. "One thing that Iran has continued to do is dig deeper and prepare. They love keeping their options open." On June 12, a day before Israel struck Iran, Mohammad Eslami, head of Iran's Atomic Energy Organization, announced that the country had completed construction of a new enrichment site. "The new site is fully constructed and located in a secure, invulnerable location," Mr Eslami said. "As soon as centrifuge installation and setup are complete, enrichment will begin." Iran's efforts to expand military infrastructure underground have also been widely publicised. In 2023, Ali Reza Tangsiri, commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Navy, announced that Iran had constructed 2,200 km of "underground cities" to house advanced weapon systems. These fortified networks reportedly contain missile launchers, drone platforms, oceangoing helicopter carriers, and warships, many of which are linked to Iran's southern waterways and offshore islands. Despite Iran's military buildup, the central concern remains its nuclear material. US Vice President JD Vance admitted Sunday that enriched uranium, enough to construct up to ten nuclear bombs, remains unaccounted for.
Yahoo
23-06-2025
- Politics
- Yahoo
Early assessments raise questions over whether US destroyed bulk of enriched Iranian nuclear material
President Donald Trump declared that Iran's nuclear enrichment facilities were 'completely and totally obliterated' following this weekend's air strikes, but the US appears to have held back its most powerful bombs against one of the three facilities included in the operation, raising questions about whether it finished the job. In Isfahan, where nearly 60% of Iran's stockpile of already-enriched nuclear material is believed to be stored underground, according to a US official, a US submarine hit the site with Tomahawk cruise missiles, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs Gen. Dan Caine said Sunday. But unlike the other two Iranian facilities targeted in the operation, B-2 bombers did not drop massive 'bunker-buster' bombs on the Isfahan facility, multiple sources told CNN. The damage to the facility appears to be restricted to aboveground structures, according to Jeffrey Lewis, a weapons expert and professor at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies who has closely reviewed commercial satellite imagery of the strike sites. Even if the US was successful in destroying Iran's facility at Fordow — another underground site that housed centrifuges needed to enrich uranium, which the US hit with 12 bunker busters — the obvious survival of Isfahan has raised questions about whether Trump achieved his stated goal of 'a stop to the nuclear threat posed by the world's No. 1 state sponsor of terror.' 'This is an incomplete strike,' Lewis said. 'If this is all there is, here's what left: the entire stockpile of 60% uranium, which was stored at Isfahan in tunnels that are untouched.' A satellite image taken by Airbus shows significant damage to the Isfahan site and signs that the underground portion of the facility was hit, according to the Institute for Science and International Security, which analyzed the image. But there are layers of tunnels at the facility, so it's unclear how far the damage goes. When reached for comment, the office of Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth told CNN, 'We do not have anything additional to share at this time.' Vice President JD Vance told ABC News' 'This Week' on Sunday that the administration plans to 'work in the coming weeks to ensure that we do something with that fuel and that's one of the things we're going to have conversations with the Iranians about.' 'What we know is they no longer have the capacity to turn that stockpile of highly enriched uranium to weapons-grade uranium, and that was really the goal here,' Vance added.'Enriching uranium up to the point of a nuclear weapon — that was what the president put a stop to last night.' But multiple sources familiar with the latest US intelligence on both sites and the Trump administration's objectives in launching the strikes told CNN that Isfahan's underground facilities — which likely remain intact — must be addressed to prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons. And on Thursday, the UN nuclear watchdog said that Iran was building a new nuclear enrichment plant at Isfahan that Tehran has said it will soon bring online. The Iranians 'have the material, they still have the capacity to make centrifuges, and they still have at least one giant underground centrifuge facility where they can install their centrifuges,' Lewis added. 'So, it's just not done.' It remains unclear why US military planners decided against using bunker busters — officially known as Massive Ordinance Penetrators, or MOP, on Isfahan. The bombs are designed to penetrate deep underground, and sources say the tunnels under Isfahan are even deeper than those at the other two locations. But even before the strikes were carried out, some US officials had raised pointed doubts about whether the MOPs was even capable of destroying the deeper tunnels. While there were some questions about whether US bunker busters were capable of destroying the underground portions of Fordow — which had been the focus of the administration's planning for the operation — multiple sources familiar with the discussions told CNN the likelihood of successfully doing the same at Isfahan was an even bigger question. At Fordow, the depth of the facility almost certainly requires several MOPs that impact in nearly the exact same spot, something that would normally be a tall order except that Iran's air and missile defenses are functionally disabled, one US official familiar with the matter said. But, 'Isfahan is a challenge,' another source familiar with the latest US intelligence told CNN. 'The tunnels at Isfahan are just so deep,' Lewis said. The MOP was designed to handle a site like Fordow. 'If they put something deeper, we either gotta design a new bomb or we have to use a nuclear weapon.' CNN's Kylie Atwood contributed to this report.
New Straits Times
18-06-2025
- Politics
- New Straits Times
Outcome of Iran-Israel conflict uncertain
Israel has inflicted damage on strategic sites and killed key figures within Iran's military leadership in aerial attacks that show no signs of abating. But the ultimate outcome is unclear, analysts say. Israel says its offensive aims to eliminate Iran's nuclear programme and ballistic missile production capabilities. The Israeli government has not ruled out triggering a wholesale removal of Iran's theocratic system set up after the 1979 revolution that has remained opposed to Israel's existence. Yet, even if Israel succeeds in ousting Ayatollah Ali Khamenei or killing him, the supreme leader will not necessarily be replaced by more moderate forces and the risk exists of further escalation, analysts warn. Diplomacy, meanwhile, remains at a standstill as Israel pounds Iranian targets and Iran hits back with its own strikes on its foe, heightening fears of a wider and prolonged conflict. In television interviews, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has not ruled out killing Khamenei, although a United States official said President Donald Trump had vetoed assassinating the supreme leader. Israel, whose intelligence service is widely acknowledged to have deeply penetrated Iran, has killed a host of key figures, including the heads of the Revolutionary Guards and armed forces, which is a huge blow. "This is existential, the most profound of all the crises the Islamic republic has faced," said Sanam Vakil, director of the Middle East and North Africa programme at the London-based Chatham House think tank. "This is designed to decapitate the leadership of the Islamic republic and degrade the nuclear and broader capabilities of the regime," she said. Rather than an immediate turnaround, what could result is "an unravelling over time", with the Israeli action putting an "accelerant" on a process of change already happening within Iran due to dissatisfaction with the authorities, she said. For Jeffrey Lewis, director of the East Asia Non-proliferation Program at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies, Israel's military operation "is about regime change and not eliminating the nuclear programme". "If the regime falls, then it will be an enormous success," he said of the operation Israel dubbed "Rising Lion" — a likely reference to the beast which adorned the pre-revolutionary Iranian flag. Even in the event of a change in leadership, Gregory Brew, senior analyst for Iran and energy at risk analysis firm Eurasia Group, said Khamenei could be replaced with a figure who may be even more hardline and pose a greater danger to Israel. "Kill Khamenei, make him a martyr to the hardliners and empower a new supreme leader who may be much less risk averse. "Or leave him to die or resign in likely disgrace after the war, his credibility in ruins. Which move produces a government better suited to Israel's interests?" Brew said. Iran's ability to cause regional mayhem through its proxies, Hizbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in the Gaza Strip, has been severely degraded by Israeli operations since October 2023. But Teheran still backs the Houthi rebels in Yemen, who have attacked Gulf shipping, while Iran can strike energy facilities or mount cyberattacks. "It remains to be seen if Iran will seek to engage in gray zone activities, including cyberattacks," said analysts at US-based think tank Soufan Center. Israel's airstrikes have put an end, for now, to the latest track of talks seeking to end the stand-off over the Iranian nuclear programme. Analysts say the future of any diplomatic progress lies with the US and Trump. "Netanyahu's goal is to bring Trump into the war," said David Khalfa, co-founder of the Atlantic Middle East Forum think tank. Israel has hit the Natanz nuclear site, but has not been able to strike the Fordo enrichment facility, which is deep underground. Analysts believe Israel could damage it only with American bunker-busting bombs. Ali Vaez, Iran analyst at the International Crisis Group, argued in an article for Foreign Affairs that Israel would be unable to wipe out the Iranian nuclear programme even in a prolonged conflict. "A diplomatic settlement represents the best and most sustainable way for Trump to avoid both a nuclear Iran and a protracted military entanglement," Vaez said.
Yahoo
17-06-2025
- Politics
- Yahoo
Escalation or diplomacy? Outcome of Iran-Israel conflict uncertain
Israel has inflicted damage on strategic sites and killed key figures within Iran's military leadership during five days of aerial attacks that showed no sign of abating Tuesday, but whose ultimate outcome is unclear, analysts say. Israel says its offensive aims to eliminate Iran's nuclear programme and ballistic missile production capabilities. The Israeli government has not ruled out triggering a wholesale removal of the clerical system set up after the 1979 Islamic Revolution that has remained implacably opposed to Israel's existence. Yet even if Israel succeeds in ousting Ayatollah Ali Khamenei or killing him, the supreme leader will not necessarily be replaced by more moderate forces and the risk exists of further escalation, analysts warn. Diplomacy, meanwhile, remains at a standstill as Israel pounds Iranian targets and Iran hits back with its own strikes on its foe, heightening fears of a wider and prolonged conflict. - 'Existential' crisis - In television interviews, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has not ruled out killing Khamenei, although a US official said President Donald Trump had vetoed assassinating the supreme leader. Israel, whose intelligence service is widely acknowledged to have deeply penetrated Iran, has killed a host of key figures including the head of the Revolutionary Guards and armed forces in a huge blow. "This is existential, the most profound of all the crises the Islamic republic has faced," said Sanam Vakil, director of the Middle East and North Africa programme at the London-based Chatham House think tank. "This is designed to decapitate the leadership of the Islamic republic and degrade the nuclear and broader capabilities of the regime," she said. Rather than an immediate turnaround, what could result is "an unravelling over time" with the Israeli action putting an "accelerant" on a process of change already happening within Iran due to dissatisfaction with the authorities, she said. For Jeffrey Lewis, director of the East Asia Non-proliferation Program at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies, Israel's military operation "is about regime change and not eliminating the nuclear programme". "If the regime falls, then it will be an enormous success," he said of the operation Israel dubbed "Rising Lion" -- a likely reference to the beast which adorned the pre-revolutionary Iranian flag. - Proxies - Even in the event of a change in leadership, Gregory Brew, senior analyst for Iran and energy at risk analysis firm Eurasia Group, said Khamenei could be replaced with a figure who may be even more hardline and pose a greater danger to Israel in the conflict's aftermath. "Kill Khamenei, make him a martyr to the hardliners and empower a new supreme leader who may be much less risk averse. Or leave him to die or resign in likely disgrace after the war, his credibility in ruins. Which move produces a government better suited to Israel's interests?" Brew said. Iran's ability to cause regional mayhem through its proxies Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in the Gaza Strip has been severely degraded by Israeli operations since October 2023. But Tehran still backs the Huthi rebels in Yemen who have attacked Gulf shipping, while Iran can strike energy facilities or undertake cyberattacks. "It remains to be seen if Iran will seek to engage in grey zone activities, including cyberattacks," said analysts at US-based think tank Soufan Center. - Nuclear diplomacy - Israel's air strikes have put an end, for now, to the latest track of talks seeking to end the standoff over the Iranian nuclear programme, which the West and Israel fear is aimed at making the atomic bomb. Analysts say the future of any diplomatic progress lies with the United States and Trump, who has so far resisted Israeli pressure to become directly involved in the conflict. "Netanyahu's goal is to bring Trump into the war," said David Khalfa, co-founder of the Atlantic Middle East Forum think tank. "But I think he will stand back and let Israel continue to weaken Iran to force it to negotiate" with the Islamic republic in a weaker position, Khalfa said. Israel has hit the Natanz nuclear site during its attacks, but has not been able to strike the Fordo enrichment facility, which is located deep underground. Analysts believe Israel could only damage it with the help of American bunker-busting bombs. Ali Vaez, Iran analyst at the International Crisis Group, argued in an article for Foreign Affairs that Israel would be unable to wipe out the Iranian nuclear programme even in a prolonged conflict. "A diplomatic settlement represents the best and most sustainable way for Trump to avoid both a nuclear Iran and a protracted military entanglement," Vaez said. dla-sjw/ah/ami
France 24
17-06-2025
- Politics
- France 24
Escalation or diplomacy? Outcome of Iran-Israel conflict uncertain
Israel says its offensive aims to eliminate Iran's nuclear programme and ballistic missile production capabilities. The Israeli government has not ruled out triggering a wholesale removal of the clerical system set up after the 1979 Islamic Revolution that has remained implacably opposed to Israel's existence. Yet even if Israel succeeds in ousting Ayatollah Ali Khamenei or killing him, the supreme leader will not necessarily be replaced by more moderate forces and the risk exists of further escalation, analysts warn. Diplomacy, meanwhile, remains at a standstill as Israel pounds Iranian targets and Iran hits back with its own strikes on its foe, heightening fears of a wider and prolonged conflict. 'Existential' crisis In television interviews, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has not ruled out killing Khamenei, although a US official said President Donald Trump had vetoed assassinating the supreme leader. Israel, whose intelligence service is widely acknowledged to have deeply penetrated Iran, has killed a host of key figures including the head of the Revolutionary Guards and armed forces in a huge blow. "This is existential, the most profound of all the crises the Islamic republic has faced," said Sanam Vakil, director of the Middle East and North Africa programme at the London-based Chatham House think tank. "This is designed to decapitate the leadership of the Islamic republic and degrade the nuclear and broader capabilities of the regime," she said. Rather than an immediate turnaround, what could result is "an unravelling over time" with the Israeli action putting an "accelerant" on a process of change already happening within Iran due to dissatisfaction with the authorities, she said. For Jeffrey Lewis, director of the East Asia Non-proliferation Program at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies, Israel's military operation "is about regime change and not eliminating the nuclear programme". "If the regime falls, then it will be an enormous success," he said of the operation Israel dubbed "Rising Lion" -- a likely reference to the beast which adorned the pre-revolutionary Iranian flag. Proxies Even in the event of a change in leadership, Gregory Brew, senior analyst for Iran and energy at risk analysis firm Eurasia Group, said Khamenei could be replaced with a figure who may be even more hardline and pose a greater danger to Israel in the conflict's aftermath. "Kill Khamenei, make him a martyr to the hardliners and empower a new supreme leader who may be much less risk averse. Or leave him to die or resign in likely disgrace after the war, his credibility in ruins. Which move produces a government better suited to Israel's interests?" Brew said. Iran's ability to cause regional mayhem through its proxies Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in the Gaza Strip has been severely degraded by Israeli operations since October 2023. But Tehran still backs the Huthi rebels in Yemen who have attacked Gulf shipping, while Iran can strike energy facilities or undertake cyberattacks. "It remains to be seen if Iran will seek to engage in grey zone activities, including cyberattacks," said analysts at US-based think tank Soufan Center. - Nuclear diplomacy - Israel's air strikes have put an end, for now, to the latest track of talks seeking to end the standoff over the Iranian nuclear programme, which the West and Israel fear is aimed at making the atomic bomb. Analysts say the future of any diplomatic progress lies with the United States and Trump, who has so far resisted Israeli pressure to become directly involved in the conflict. "Netanyahu's goal is to bring Trump into the war," said David Khalfa, co-founder of the Atlantic Middle East Forum think tank. "But I think he will stand back and let Israel continue to weaken Iran to force it to negotiate" with the Islamic republic in a weaker position, Khalfa said. Israel has hit the Natanz nuclear site during its attacks, but has not been able to strike the Fordo enrichment facility, which is located deep underground. Analysts believe Israel could only damage it with the help of American bunker-busting bombs. Ali Vaez, Iran analyst at the International Crisis Group, argued in an article for Foreign Affairs that Israel would be unable to wipe out the Iranian nuclear programme even in a prolonged conflict. "A diplomatic settlement represents the best and most sustainable way for Trump to avoid both a nuclear Iran and a protracted military entanglement," Vaez said.
