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Yahoo
02-07-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Treasuries Fall for Second Day With Focus on US Jobs Numbers
(Bloomberg) -- Treasuries are set for a second daily drop heading into a double whammy of labor data, following an unexpected jump in US job opening numbers. Struggling Downtowns Are Looking to Lure New Crowds Sprawl Is Still Not the Answer California Exempts Building Projects From Environmental Law What Gothenburg Got Out of Congestion Pricing US 10-year yields rose four basis points to 4.28%, climbing after reaching a two-month low Tuesday. Two-year rates, which are more sensitive to changes in monetary policy, advanced two basis points to 3.79%. With the job openings data pointing to a hotter economy, market expectations are building that today's ADP Research employment numbers and Thursday's non-farm payrolls could also reflect that. It's leading traders to pare bets on Federal Reserve interest-rate cuts, with swaps evenly split on two or three quarter-point reductions by year-end, with only a 15% chance the first cut is delivered later this month. 'The data put the latest dovishness to the test,' said Evelyne Gomez-Liechti, a strategist at Mizuho International Plc. She says a rate cut this month is unlikely and a reduction of more than a quarter-point in September looks like a stretch. Private-sector payroll numbers published by ADP Research are forecast to rise to 98,000 in June, from 37,000 previously, according to a Bloomberg poll of economists. Investors are also contending with President Donald Trump's sweeping budget bill, which was narrowly passed in a Senate vote Tuesday and carries implications for the deficit. The House plans to vote on the bill Wednesday as Republicans rush to complete work on the legislation by a July 4 deadline set by the President. The House-passed version of the package was most recently estimated by the CBO to boost the deficit by some $2.8 trillion. Open interest data shows traders added new long positions into the recent bond market rally. Outstanding positions in US 10-year bond futures exceeded 5 million lots last week for the first time since the contract expiring in September became the most actively traded one month ago. (Adds positioning in bond futures in the final paragraph) SNAP Cuts in Big Tax Bill Will Hit a Lot of Trump Voters Too How to Steal a House China's Homegrown Jewelry Superstar America's Top Consumer-Sentiment Economist Is Worried Pistachios Are Everywhere Right Now, Not Just in Dubai Chocolate ©2025 Bloomberg L.P. Sign in to access your portfolio
Yahoo
02-07-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Treasuries Fall for Second Day With Attention on US Jobs Numbers
(Bloomberg) -- Treasuries are set for a second daily drop heading into a double whammy of labor data, following an unexpected jump in US job opening numbers. Struggling Downtowns Are Looking to Lure New Crowds Sprawl Is Still Not the Answer California Exempts Building Projects From Environmental Law What Gothenburg Got Out of Congestion Pricing US 10-year yields rose four basis points to 4.28%, climbing after reaching a two-month low Tuesday. Two-year rates, which are more sensitive to changes in monetary policy, advanced two basis points to 3.79%. With the job openings data pointing to a hotter economy, market expectations are building that today's ADP Research employment numbers and Thursday's non-farm payrolls could also reflect that. It's leading traders to pare bets on Federal Reserve interest-rate cuts, with swaps evenly split on two or three quarter-point reductions by year-end, with only a 15% chance the first cut is delivered later this month. 'The data put the latest dovishness to the test,' said Evelyne Gomez-Liechti, a strategist at Mizuho International Plc. She says a rate cut this month is unlikely and a reduction of more than a quarter-point in September looks like a stretch. Private-sector payroll numbers published by ADP Research are forecast to rise to 98,000 in June, from 37,000 previously, according to a Bloomberg poll of economists. Investors are also contending with President Donald Trump's sweeping budget bill, which was narrowly passed in a Senate vote Tuesday and carries implications for the deficit. The House plans to vote on the bill Wednesday as Republicans rush to complete work on the legislation by a July 4 deadline set by the President. The House-passed version of the package was most recently estimated by the CBO to boost the deficit by some $2.8 trillion. SNAP Cuts in Big Tax Bill Will Hit a Lot of Trump Voters Too How to Steal a House America's Top Consumer-Sentiment Economist Is Worried China's Homegrown Jewelry Superstar Pistachios Are Everywhere Right Now, Not Just in Dubai Chocolate ©2025 Bloomberg L.P.
Yahoo
23-06-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Europe Leads Global Bond Selloff as Oil Stokes Inflation Fears
(Bloomberg) -- Europe led a global bond selloff as the escalating conflict in the Middle East stoked fears of an oil supply disruption that would fan inflation. Bezos Wedding Draws Protests, Soul-Searching Over Tourism in Venice One Architect's Quest to Save Mumbai's Heritage From Disappearing NYC Congestion Toll Cuts Manhattan Gridlock by 25%, RPA Reports German yields climbed across the curve, with 10-year yields up as much as five basis points to 2.56%, the highest level in a week. Treasury yields also rose, with 10-year yields up as much as three basis points to 4.40%. Traders are watching to see how Tehran responds to US strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities that pushed the Middle East into uncharted territory. Iran could retaliate by disrupting shipping in the Strait of Hormuz — a narrow artery through which a fifth of the world's crude output flows. 'We are all oil traders this morning,' said Jordan Rochester, head of macro strategy for EMEA at Mizuho International Plc. A rise in energy prices risks 'stronger inflation for central bankers this summer,' he added, which could limit rate cuts. Unlike the US, which is a net energy exporter, Europe is more vulnerable to swings in oil prices due to its reliance on imports. Traders pared bets on European Central Bank interest-rate cuts to price around 20 basis points by year-end, while German 10-year breakevens rose as much as four basis points. The moves came even as data showed the region's private sector barely grew in June. For the US, 'any negative impact would be through deteriorating financial conditions or through higher for longer rates as the Fed have another reason to delay cuts,' wrote macro strategists at Deutsche Bank led by Jim Reid. In Europe 'the impact is potentially more serious,' they said, noting that every $10 increase in oil prices per barrel could add a quarter of a percent to HICP within a quarter, referring to a key inflation measure. The dollar gained against all Group-of-10 peers, with the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index up as much as 0.4%. 'A further step up in the Middle East conflict is a concern here,' said Richard McGuire, head of rates strategy at Rabobank. Treasuries could 'outperform on the notion that they are still the world's risk-free rate even if US exceptionalism is already under clear threat from the Trump administration,' he added. Luxury Counterfeiters Keep Outsmarting the Makers of $10,000 Handbags Is Mark Cuban the Loudmouth Billionaire that Democrats Need for 2028? Ken Griffin on Trump, Harvard and Why Novice Investors Won't Beat the Pros The US Has More Copper Than China But No Way to Refine All of It Can 'MAMUWT' Be to Musk What 'TACO' Is to Trump? ©2025 Bloomberg L.P.
