Latest news with #MohitKumar
Yahoo
27-06-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Treasuries Slip as Investors Take Breather on Fed-Driven Rally
(Bloomberg) — US Treasuries fell, trimming their weekly advance, as investors prepared for inflation data due later on the day that is expected to show an acceleration in consumer price growth. Philadelphia Transit System Votes to Cut Service by 45%, Hike Fares US Renters Face Storm of Rising Costs Squeezed by Crowds, the Roads of Central Park Are Being Reimagined Mapping the Architectural History of New York's Chinatown US State Budget Wounds Intensify From Trump, DOGE Policy Shifts The yield on 10-year US notes (^TNX) rose three basis points to 4.27% on Friday, and traders pared bets on interest-rate cuts from the Federal Reserve this year to 62 basis points from as high as 65 basis points on Thursday. Traders are squaring their positions after five sessions of gains, with the benchmark US yield lower by 10 basis points this week. The recent rally was driven by economic data that reinforced wagers on at least two rate cuts this year, as well as speculation President Donald Trump will name a more dovish successor to Jerome Powell as soon as September or October. Now, attention has turned to the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, the core PCE price index, which is expected to edge higher. Traders are also wary of increased bond supply due to the US's lingering fiscal risks, which may inhibit a substantial move lower in longer-term yields. 'We do not see a further rally in Treasuries from these levels,' said Mohit Kumar, chief European strategist at Jefferies, who predicts US bonds will underperform German peers. 'We believe that fiscal deficits would be the dominating concern for markets in the second half of the year.' Fed officials including Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman, two Trump nominees, signaled in recent days they'd be open to lowering rates as soon as the next meeting. That's as candidates jostle to replace Powell, with investors and analysts reckoning his successor will most likely share Trump's dovish bias. Data on Thursday showed the growth rate for personal spending during the first quarter — part of a revision to US first-quarter gross domestic product — was unexpectedly revised to 0.5% from 1.2%. Other tailwinds to Treasuries include proposed US changes to a key capital buffer, which Powell said should bolster banks' roles as intermediaries in the market. Meanwhile, the removal of the Section 899 'revenge tax' proposal that had been worrying Wall Street had little market impact, though it could improve sentiment toward US assets at the margin. Traders are also monitoring Trump's proposed 'big beautiful bill', which is nearing a vote in the Senate. It has fueled concerns surrounding the US fiscal deficit, weighing on longer-maturity Treasuries. Wells Fargo strategists see the potential for the spread between US 10-year and 30-year yields to widen to 75 basis points by end-2025, in what they describe as a 'fiscal blowout' scenario. The difference in yields is currently around 55 basis points. 'We expect very long duration bonds to continue lagging their five- and ten-year counterparts,' a team led by Michael Schumacher wrote in a note. 'The significant relative rise in 30-year yields is due to investor concerns about potential supply.' America's Top Consumer-Sentiment Economist Is Worried How to Steal a House Inside Gap's Last-Ditch, Tariff-Addled Turnaround Push Apple Test-Drives Big-Screen Movie Strategy With F1 Luxury Counterfeiters Keep Outsmarting the Makers of $10,000 Handbags ©2025 Bloomberg L.P. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Yahoo
25-06-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Stunning turnaround: The stock market is on the precipice of an all-time record
The S&P 500 is on the cusp of a record high. It's been a remarkable change of events since the index was on the brink of a bear market just two months ago. The S&P 500 on Tuesday closed just 0.85% away from an all-time high. US stocks on Wednesday were set to open mixed. Dow futures were down 25 points. S&P 500 futures hovered around the flatline and Nasdaq 100 futures were up 0.15%. The S&P 500 soared 2.1% across the past two days as investors welcomed a ceasefire, albeit fragile, between Israel and Iran. As the stock market has climbed back toward record highs, investors are wondering whether there is room for stocks to climb higher or if further roadblocks lie ahead. 'As Middle East tensions de-escalate, the focus will return to more fundamental concerns for investors such as tariffs, earnings, the federal deficit and President Trump's One Big Beautiful Bill,' said Chris Brigati, chief investment officer at SWBC, in a Tuesday note. Despite plenty of headwinds, including the possibility of reignited inflation from higher tariffs this summer, some Wall Street analysts believe stocks still have room to rise. 'We are not looking for a massive rally from current levels, but believe that the path of least resistance is a grind higher,' said Mohit Kumar, an economist and strategist at Jefferies, in a Wednesday note. The US stock market has been on a wild ride this year. After tumbling into correction in March and flirting with a bear market in April, the index recouped its losses in May and June and is up more than 3.5% year-to-date. The S&P 500 had entered the year hitting record high after record high. The index hit its last record high on February 19 as Wall Street rallied at the start of Trump's second term. The index began to tumble in March and April as the president unveiled his tariff policy, and it's been trying to claw its way back toward a new record high since. After Trump's 'Liberation Day' tariffs on April 2, the S&P 500 closed at its lowest level this year on April 8, down 18.9% from its February record high. The S&P 500 rallied sharply in April after Trump walked back his massive 'reciprocal' tariffs. The index then gained 6.15% across May as the rebound rally accelerated, posting its best monthly gain since November 2023 and its best performance in May since 1990. The benchmark index is up 3% so far in June. Although the Trump administration has only announced a trade deal with the United Kingdom and a truce in its trade war with China, many investors have been betting that the worst of the tariff confusion is in the past. As the market has recovered, momentum around US tech and artificial intelligence has begun to pick up pace. The Nasdaq 100 on Tuesday closed at an all-time high, notching its first new record high since February. The Nasdaq 100 is an index compromised of the largest tech companies in the United States. Tech and AI stocks are beginning to return to their 'leadership' in US markets, helping push the major indexes higher, said Ross Mayfield, an investment strategist at Baird. 'Does it become a bubble at some point? I think it's possible, but I don't think we're there yet,' Mayfield said. 'And in the meantime, getting leadership from these big tech names is huge for a US market that's hyper-concentrated in that area.' While Wall Street has shrugged off the Israel-Iran conflict and awaited developments on the trade front, investors are also trying to gauge where tariff rates ultimately settle and what other factors might impact markets. The current average tariff rate would still result in the highest tariffs in 90 years, noted Torsten Slok, chief economist at Apollo, in a Monday note to investors. That would lead to slower economic growth, higher inflation and higher interest rates for longer, according to Slok — all major obstacles to the S&P 500 climbing higher. Geopolitics and second quarter earnings releases beginning in mid-July are other catalysts that could impact investor sentiment and the market, said Eric Freedman, CIO at US Bank Asset Management, said in a Monday note. 'How companies are absorbing or passing on tariff price increases represents a key item of investor interest in upcoming quarterly releases, with investors gauging the future impact on inflation, interest rates and economic growth,' Freedman said. Kumar at Jefferies said in a Wednesday note that he is looking for how US jobs data holds up this summer and whether Treasury yields rise due to concerns about the deficit, which could pull investors away from stocks. 'The main message for investors is to stay invested and avoid reacting sharply to any news or market reaction that may have a short-term negative impact upon equity prices,' SWBC's Brigati said. 'It is nearly impossible to attempt to time the market, therefore maintaining a disciplined and long-term investing approach serves investors well.' Sign in to access your portfolio
CNN
25-06-2025
- Business
- CNN
The stock market is on the precipice of an all-time record. How'd we get here?
The S&P 500 is on the cusp of a record high. It's been a remarkable change of events since the index was on the brink of a bear market just two months ago. The S&P 500 on Tuesday closed just 0.85% away from an all-time high. US stocks on Wednesday were set to open mixed. Dow futures were down 25 points. S&P 500 futures hovered around the flatline and Nasdaq 100 futures were up 0.15%. The S&P 500 soared 2.1% across the past two days as investors welcomed a ceasefire, albeit fragile, between Israel and Iran. As the stock market has climbed back toward record highs, investors are wondering whether there is room for stocks to climb higher or if further roadblocks lie ahead. 'As Middle East tensions de-escalate, the focus will return to more fundamental concerns for investors such as tariffs, earnings, the federal deficit and President Trump's One Big Beautiful Bill,' said Chris Brigati, chief investment officer at SWBC, in a Tuesday note. Despite plenty of headwinds, including the possibility of reignited inflation from higher tariffs this summer, some Wall Street analysts believe stocks still have room to rise. 'We are not looking for a massive rally from current levels, but believe that the path of least resistance is a grind higher,' said Mohit Kumar, an economist and strategist at Jefferies, in a Wednesday note. The US stock market has been on a wild ride this year. After tumbling into correction in March and flirting with a bear market in April, the index recouped its losses in May and June and is up more than 3.5% year-to-date. The S&P 500 had entered the year hitting record high after record high. The index hit its last record high on February 19 as Wall Street rallied at the start of Trump's second term. The index began to tumble in March and April as the president unveiled his tariff policy, and it's been trying to claw its way back toward a new record high since. After Trump's 'Liberation Day' tariffs on April 2, the S&P 500 closed at its lowest level this year on April 8, down 18.9% from its February record high. The S&P 500 rallied sharply in April after Trump walked back his massive 'reciprocal' tariffs. The index then gained 6.15% across May as the rebound rally accelerated, posting its best monthly gain since November 2023 and its best performance in May since 1990. The benchmark index is up 3% so far in June. Although the Trump administration has only announced a trade deal with the United Kingdom and a truce in its trade war with China, many investors have been betting that the worst of the tariff confusion is in the past. As the market has recovered, momentum around US tech and artificial intelligence has begun to pick up pace. The Nasdaq 100 on Tuesday closed at an all-time high, notching its first new record high since February. The Nasdaq 100 is an index compromised of the largest tech companies in the United States. Tech and AI stocks are beginning to return to their 'leadership' in US markets, helping push the major indexes higher, said Ross Mayfield, an investment strategist at Baird. 'Does it become a bubble at some point? I think it's possible, but I don't think we're there yet,' Mayfield said. 'And in the meantime, getting leadership from these big tech names is huge for a US market that's hyper-concentrated in that area.' While Wall Street has shrugged off the Israel-Iran conflict and awaited developments on the trade front, investors are also trying to gauge where tariff rates ultimately settle and what other factors might impact markets. The current average tariff rate would still result in the highest tariffs in 90 years, noted Torsten Slok, chief economist at Apollo, in a Monday note to investors. That would lead to slower economic growth, higher inflation and higher interest rates for longer, according to Slok — all major obstacles to the S&P 500 climbing higher. Geopolitics and second quarter earnings releases beginning in mid-July are other catalysts that could impact investor sentiment and the market, said Eric Freedman, CIO at US Bank Asset Management, said in a Monday note. 'How companies are absorbing or passing on tariff price increases represents a key item of investor interest in upcoming quarterly releases, with investors gauging the future impact on inflation, interest rates and economic growth,' Freedman said. Kumar at Jefferies said in a Wednesday note that he is looking for how US jobs data holds up this summer and whether Treasury yields rise due to concerns about the deficit, which could pull investors away from stocks. 'The main message for investors is to stay invested and avoid reacting sharply to any news or market reaction that may have a short-term negative impact upon equity prices,' SWBC's Brigati said. 'It is nearly impossible to attempt to time the market, therefore maintaining a disciplined and long-term investing approach serves investors well.'
CNN
25-06-2025
- Business
- CNN
The stock market is on the precipice of an all-time record. How'd we get here?
The S&P 500 is on the cusp of a record high. It's been a remarkable change of events since the index was on the brink of a bear market just two months ago. The S&P 500 on Tuesday closed just 0.85% away from an all-time high. US stocks on Wednesday were set to open mixed. Dow futures were down 25 points. S&P 500 futures hovered around the flatline and Nasdaq 100 futures were up 0.15%. The S&P 500 soared 2.1% across the past two days as investors welcomed a ceasefire, albeit fragile, between Israel and Iran. As the stock market has climbed back toward record highs, investors are wondering whether there is room for stocks to climb higher or if further roadblocks lie ahead. 'As Middle East tensions de-escalate, the focus will return to more fundamental concerns for investors such as tariffs, earnings, the federal deficit and President Trump's One Big Beautiful Bill,' said Chris Brigati, chief investment officer at SWBC, in a Tuesday note. Despite plenty of headwinds, including the possibility of reignited inflation from higher tariffs this summer, some Wall Street analysts believe stocks still have room to rise. 'We are not looking for a massive rally from current levels, but believe that the path of least resistance is a grind higher,' said Mohit Kumar, an economist and strategist at Jefferies, in a Wednesday note. The US stock market has been on a wild ride this year. After tumbling into correction in March and flirting with a bear market in April, the index recouped its losses in May and June and is up more than 3.5% year-to-date. The S&P 500 had entered the year hitting record high after record high. The index hit its last record high on February 19 as Wall Street rallied at the start of Trump's second term. The index began to tumble in March and April as the president unveiled his tariff policy, and it's been trying to claw its way back toward a new record high since. After Trump's 'Liberation Day' tariffs on April 2, the S&P 500 closed at its lowest level this year on April 8, down 18.9% from its February record high. The S&P 500 rallied sharply in April after Trump walked back his massive 'reciprocal' tariffs. The index then gained 6.15% across May as the rebound rally accelerated, posting its best monthly gain since November 2023 and its best performance in May since 1990. The benchmark index is up 3% so far in June. Although the Trump administration has only announced a trade deal with the United Kingdom and a truce in its trade war with China, many investors have been betting that the worst of the tariff confusion is in the past. As the market has recovered, momentum around US tech and artificial intelligence has begun to pick up pace. The Nasdaq 100 on Tuesday closed at an all-time high, notching its first new record high since February. The Nasdaq 100 is an index compromised of the largest tech companies in the United States. Tech and AI stocks are beginning to return to their 'leadership' in US markets, helping push the major indexes higher, said Ross Mayfield, an investment strategist at Baird. 'Does it become a bubble at some point? I think it's possible, but I don't think we're there yet,' Mayfield said. 'And in the meantime, getting leadership from these big tech names is huge for a US market that's hyper-concentrated in that area.' While Wall Street has shrugged off the Israel-Iran conflict and awaited developments on the trade front, investors are also trying to gauge where tariff rates ultimately settle and what other factors might impact markets. The current average tariff rate would still result in the highest tariffs in 90 years, noted Torsten Slok, chief economist at Apollo, in a Monday note to investors. That would lead to slower economic growth, higher inflation and higher interest rates for longer, according to Slok — all major obstacles to the S&P 500 climbing higher. Geopolitics and second quarter earnings releases beginning in mid-July are other catalysts that could impact investor sentiment and the market, said Eric Freedman, CIO at US Bank Asset Management, said in a Monday note. 'How companies are absorbing or passing on tariff price increases represents a key item of investor interest in upcoming quarterly releases, with investors gauging the future impact on inflation, interest rates and economic growth,' Freedman said. Kumar at Jefferies said in a Wednesday note that he is looking for how US jobs data holds up this summer and whether Treasury yields rise due to concerns about the deficit, which could pull investors away from stocks. 'The main message for investors is to stay invested and avoid reacting sharply to any news or market reaction that may have a short-term negative impact upon equity prices,' SWBC's Brigati said. 'It is nearly impossible to attempt to time the market, therefore maintaining a disciplined and long-term investing approach serves investors well.'
Hindustan Times
23-06-2025
- Business
- Hindustan Times
US equity futures fluctuate amid worries over Iran's oil flow disruption
US equity futures fluctuated as investors weighed the risk of Iran disrupting Middle East oil flows in response to American strikes on its nuclear infrastructure. Crude prices trimmed earlier gains. S&P 500 contracts were little changed after swinging between losses and gains. Brent crude pared an advance of as much as 5.7% to less than 1%, trading near $77.50 a barrel. The dollar strengthened 0.5% to its highest level this month, advancing against all Group-of-10 peers as traders hedged against the risk of further oil price gains. Subscribe to the Stock Movers Podcast on Apple, Spotify and other Podcast Platforms. Oil, which has risen more than 10% since the onset of the Israel-Iran conflict, remained the central focus as any interruption to traffic through the Strait of Hormuz raises the specter of a spike in energy prices and higher inflation. Israel ratcheted up attacks on Iran on Monday after Tehran vowed to retaliate against US attacks on its nuclear facilities over the weekend. 'Markets are judging that the response may not be quite as dramatic, because Iran would risk antagonizing others who are not yet pulled in,' John Bilton, head of multi-asset strategy at JPMorgan Asset Management, told Bloomberg TV. The market is 'absorbing a geopolitical event that is going on and judging that this does not, on face value, change the direction of travel.' The market's reaction had been generally muted since Israel's initial assault on Iran this month. Even after falling for the past two weeks, the S&P 500 is only about 3% below its all-time high from February. Additional losses may be contained, as some investors had already positioned for an escalation in the conflict. Equity exposure among fund managers has been trimmed while stocks are no longer in overbought territory. The market's sanguine reaction offers investors an opportunity to reduce their risk exposure further, noted Mohit Kumar, chief European strategist at Jefferies International. 'We don't see a closure of the Hormuz strait but see possibility of disruption,' Kumar said. 'Our base case would be a period of uncertainty lasting a few weeks, but without a sharp escalation.' Global bonds swung to gains after earlier losses. The rate on 10-year Treasuries fell three basis points to 4.35%. If Iran was to close the Strait of Hormuz, 'a stagflation scenario with lower growth and higher inflation due to elevated oil prices is the main risk for markets,' said Ulrich Urbahn, head of multi-asset strategy and research at Berenberg. 'It would also curb the abilities of central banks to support markets.' Corporate Highlights: Hims & Hers Health Inc. sinks more than 15% in premarket trading after Novo Nordisk A/S ends partnership. Novo fell as much as 5% in Copenhagen. Tesla Inc. rolled out its long-promised driverless taxi service to a handful of riders Sunday, a modest debut for what Elon Musk sees as a transformative new business line. A takeover battle for London healthcare REIT Assura Plc took a new turn after the board switched its recommendation from an all-cash private equity offer to a sweetened one by a listed player. British Airways and Singapore Airlines Ltd. canceled flights to the Persian Gulf, increasing aviation disruptions in the region after the US struck three nuclear sites in Iran and Tehran vowed to retaliate. Technology investor Prosus NV swung into profit for the first time, as it switches strategy under Chief Executive Officer Fabricio Bloisi. Buyout firm Advent reached an agreement to buy Spectris Plc, a UK maker of precision and testing equipment and software, for about £3.8 billion ($5.1 billion). Nomura Holdings Inc. more than doubled Kentaro Okuda's pay last year, rewarding the chief executive officer for guiding Japan's largest brokerage to a record annual profit. Stellantis NV is reorganizing its top management ranks as new Chief Executive Officer Antonio Filosa begins his push to turn around the struggling automaker. Some of the main moves in markets: Stocks S&P 500 futures were little changed as of 8:28 a.m. New York time Nasdaq 100 futures were little changed Futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.1% The Stoxx Europe 600 fell 0.4% The MSCI World Index fell 0.3% Currencies The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.5% The euro fell 0.5% to $1.1463 The British pound fell 0.5% to $1.3382 The Japanese yen fell 1% to 147.55 per dollar Cryptocurrencies Bitcoin rose 1.7% to $101,205.39 Ether rose 2.7% to $2,248.33 Bonds The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined three basis points to 4.35% Germany's 10-year yield was little changed at 2.51% Britain's 10-year yield declined two basis points to 4.51% Commodities West Texas Intermediate crude rose 0.6% to $74.27 a barrel Spot gold fell 0.2% to $3,362 an ounce
