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NBC News
17 hours ago
- Politics
- NBC News
Can Iran secretly build a nuclear bomb without being caught by Israel?
Iran's top nuclear scientist was driving to his country house with his wife on an autumn day four years ago. As he slowed down for a speed bump, a remote-controlled machine gun mounted on a nearby pick-up truck fired a volley of bullets, killing him instantly, Iranian authorities said. The assassination of Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, the architect of a dormant nuclear weapons project known as Project Amad, illustrated in brutal fashion how deeply Israel had penetrated Iran. That vulnerability has only been exposed further in recent weeks, with Israeli air strikes killing several other scientists believed to be involved in Iran's nuclear work. Iran's political leaders now face a dilemma. After the heavy U.S. bombing of their nuclear sites and air defenses, they can strike a painful compromise with Washington and abandon their uranium enrichment program, or revive the secret weapons project masterminded by Fakhrizadeh. Unlike other countries that were able to develop nuclear weapons in secret, Iran cannot assume it will be able to keep its work hidden. Israel has demonstrated repeatedly it can evade Iran's security, uncover its clandestine nuclear activities and hunt down senior figures in the military, former intelligence officials and experts said. 'Iran's principal challenge in pursuing a covert pathway is going to be keeping it hidden from U.S. and Israeli detection,' said Eric Brewer, a former intelligence official now with the Nuclear Threat Initiative, a nonprofit focusing on global security. 'That's the key challenge, because both countries, particularly Israel, have demonstrated an ability to penetrate Iran's nuclear program,' he added. 'And Israel has demonstrated an ability to use kinetic force to take it out.' The Israeli air force has effectively wiped out Iran's air defenses. For the moment, Iran cannot protect any target on its territory -- especially suspected nuclear sites -- from a U.S. or Israeli bombing raid, former intelligence officials said. 'The Israelis have complete intelligence dominance over Iran,' said Marc Polymeropoulos, a former career CIA officer and now a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council. 'If they see something emanating as a threat, they will take it out. . .That could mean military strikes. It could be covert action.' Iran has already tried once to build an atomic bomb under the veil of secrecy. It had a covert nuclear weapons project more than two decades ago, according to Western intelligence agencies. But its cover was blown in December 2002, when satellite photos emerged showing an enrichment site in the city of Natanz and a heavy water plant about 200 miles away in Arak. Iran has denied it ever had a weapons program. Archival documents stolen in 2018 by Israel's Mossad spy agency, which the U.S. says are authentic, showed detailed plans to build five nuclear weapons. According to U.S. intelligence agencies, Iran abandoned its nuclear weapons project in 2003. At that point, the secrecy around the project had been breached and Iran had reason to be anxious in the wake of a U.S. invasion in neighboring Iraq. Since then, Iran maintained what it said was a civilian nuclear program. Iran's uranium enrichment and other nuclear work gave Tehran the potential option to pursue an eventual weapon if it chose to go that route – what arms control experts call a 'threshold' nuclear capability. Stolen blueprints If the regime chooses to race towards a bomb, it will be calculating that nuclear weapons will discourage any adversary from trying to stage an attack or topple its leadership. And it would be following a familiar path taken by other countries that successfully pursued secret bomb projects, including North Korea, Pakistan, India and Israel. The Israeli government kept the Americans in the dark about their nuclear weapons project for years. In the 1950s, French engineers helped Israel build a nuclear reactor and a secret reprocessing plant to separate plutonium from spent reactor fuel. Israel's government to this day does not officially confirm or deny its nuclear arsenal, saying it will not be the first to "introduce" nuclear weapons in the Middle East. India's nuclear program also began in the 1950s, with the United States and Canada providing nuclear reactors and nuclear fuel for purely peaceful purposes. India agreed to safeguards designed to prevent the reactors and fuel from being used for weapons. But India secretly reprocessed spent fuel into plutonium in the 1960s, building up fissile material for a nuclear weapon. By 1974, India carried out its first nuclear test, code-named Smiling Buddha. Pakistan built its bomb with the help of nuclear scientist A.Q. Khan, a metallurgist who stole blueprints and other information on advanced centrifuges while working at a nuclear engineering firm in Amsterdam. Khan later was linked with distributing nuclear weapons technology to Iran and North Korea among others. Khan's assistance in the 1990s proved crucial for North Korea's program. The Pyongyang regime also bought technology and hardware abroad through front companies or on the black market, according to U.N. monitors. It was America that helped Iran launch its nuclear program, before the 1979 revolution that toppled the monarchy. During the Shah's rule, through the U.S. 'Atoms for Peace Program,' the United States provided nuclear technology, fuel, training and equipment to Iran in the 1960s, including a research reactor. Now Iran likely has no need to turn to outside partners for technical know-how, experts say. Still, the regime will have a daunting task reconstituting whatever is left of its nuclear program. Every known nuclear site in Iran was targeted in Israel's air campaign earlier this month. And then last week the U.S. launched an attack on three enrichment sites using 14 'bunker buster' 30,000-pound bombs and more than a dozen Tomahawk missiles. The CIA says key facilities were destroyed and the nuclear program was 'severely damaged' in the strikes. Despite the unprecedented damage, which is still being assessed, it's possible Iran may have the technical means to relaunch a weapons program – including enriched uranium, centrifuges and access to tunnels or other underground sites, some arms control experts say. Iran's entire stockpile of highly enriched uranium has yet to be accounted for, and it has an unknown number of centrifuges in storage that were not located at the sites bombed by Israel, NBC News has reported. Iran's most significant technical obstacle, however, could be producing uranium metal. Iran only had one known site where it could convert uranium into a solid metal state, and Israeli air strikes destroyed it in Isfahan. Iran would not be able to produce a nuclear weapon without such a facility, and it's unclear if the regime has a secret uranium metal product plant elsewhere. Technical hurdles aside, the decision whether to build a nuclear bomb ultimately will be shaped by political considerations rather than technology or logistics, according to Jeffrey Lewis, an arms control expert at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies. 'It really is a political decision not a technical one," Lewis said. "They still have a lot of capability left." After coming under a withering aerial assault that demonstrated Israel's air superiority, Iran may view nuclear weapons as the only way to defend itself and preserve the regime's survival, according to Marvin Weinbaum, a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute think tank and a professor at the University of Illinois. 'Iran has every reason now, based on what's just happened, to say we've got to have a bomb, [and] we'll be treated differently if we do,' Weinbaum said. Officials in Iran's regime have long debated whether to develop nuclear weapons, and its policy over the past two decades appeared to strike a compromise, giving Tehran the option to go nuclear if circumstances required. The question for Iranian officials is whether nuclear weapons will help ensure the regime's survival or endanger its grip on power, regional analysts said. Looming over Iran's decision is the threat of Israeli espionage and air power, potentially catching Tehran in the act of rushing to produce a bomb. 'It will be interesting to see whether the regime buckles down and gets serious about it, or whether their operational security remains as terrible as ever,' Lewis said. 'They have been so careless.' President Donald Trump's special envoy Steve Witkoff is due to hold talks on a possible agreement with Iran in coming days to try to halt its uranium enrichment in return for sanctions relief.
Time of India
3 days ago
- Politics
- Time of India
Iran-Israel war: 700 Iranians may face imminent execution within days for this alleged grave mistake
A wave of fear is sweeping across Iran, not from foreign airstrikes, but from what could become a massive and swift campaign of executions of Iranians, which started following the Iran-Israel ceasefire, as per reports. 700+ Arrested in Iran in Just 12 Days Iranian authorities have arrested over 700 people in just 12 days, accusing them of working with Israeli intelligence, reported Iranwire, citing a state-linked Fars News Agency. The arrests span several provinces, including Kermanshah, Isfahan, Khuzestan, Fars, and Lorestan, according to the report. The Islamic Republic has increased its security crackdown after a US-brokered ceasefire with Israel , as per an IranWire report. ALSO READ: Bernie Sanders calls for 4-day work week, says AI boom means it's time to clock out early by Taboola by Taboola Sponsored Links Sponsored Links Promoted Links Promoted Links You May Like 짙어지는 얼굴 기미, 더 이상 헛돈 쓰지말고 '이것' 해보세요 두아이연구원 Undo Accusations Include Drone Attacks and Spying for Israel Officials say the individuals are suspected of carrying out serious acts of espionage, including directing suicide drones, building explosives, photographing sensitive military sites, and passing information to Israel, as per the Iranwire report. Iranian authorities have also revealed that they have confiscated over 10,000 "micro-drones" in Tehran alone, as per the report. Executions Already Underway According to the Iranwire report, Iran has already executed six people on espionage charges in just the past two weeks, which also includes three men, who were executed on Wednesday, as they were reportedly accused of involvement in the 2020 assassination of Iranian nuclear scientist Mohsen Fakhrizadeh. Live Events ALSO READ: Google unveils Gemini CLI for developers - 5 critical features of the open-source AI agent While a Times of Israel report mentioned the names of those executed as Idris Ali, Azad Shojai and Rasoul Ahmad Rasoul. The report cited Mizan news agency, writing that, "The men were arrested and tried for… cooperation favoring the Zionist regime,' referring to Israel, and added, 'The sentence was carried out this morning… and they were hanged,' as quoted by Times of Israel. According to the report, the executions happened in Urmia, a northwestern city near the border with Turkey, Mizan news agency also had shared photos of the three men in blue prison uniforms. Judiciary Pushes for Tougher Laws Iranwire reported that Iran's judiciary has also revealed plans to revise Iran's espionage law to provide broader authority for prosecuting individuals detained during the recent conflict. Spokesman Asghar Jahangir said that existing laws may not cover "many instances of today's events," as quoted in the report by Iranwire. ALSO READ: Gas relief coming? Oil now cheaper than it was before Iran-Israel war — what it means for your wallet Iran's Long Record of Harsh Punishment Meanwhile, the Times of Israel wrote that, "Tehran regularly announces the arrest and execution of agents suspected of working for foreign intelligence services, including Israel, a country it regularly vows to destroy." Even human rights groups, including Amnesty International, have said that Iran is the world's second-most prolific executioner after China, as reported by Times of Israel. FAQs Why were more than 700 people arrested in Iran? Iran says they were working with Israeli intelligence and involved in spying, drone activity, and sabotage, as per reports. Were any of the accused already executed in Iran? Yes. Six people have been executed in two weeks, including three men hanged on Wednesday.
Gizmodo
7 days ago
- Politics
- Gizmodo
Targeting Nuclear Scientists Used to Be Covert Ops. Israel Just Blew It Open
At least 14 nuclear scientists are believed to be among those killed in Israel's Operation Rising Lion, launched on June 13, 2025, ostensibly to destroy or degrade Iran's nuclear program and military capabilities. Deliberately targeting scientists in this way aims to disrupt Iran's knowledge base and continuity in nuclear expertise. Among those assassinated were Mohammad Mehdi Tehranchi, a theoretical physicist and head of Iran's Islamic Azad University, and Fereydoun Abbasi-Davani, a nuclear engineer who led Iran's Atomic Energy Organization. Collectively, these experts in physics and engineering were potential successors to Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, widely regarded as the architect of the Iranian nuclear program, who was assassinated in a November 2020 attack many blame on Israel. As two political scientists writing a book about state targeting of scientists as a counterproliferation tool, we understand well that nuclear scientists have been targeted since the nuclear age began. We have gathered data on nearly 100 instances of what we call 'scientist targeting' from 1944 through 2025. The most recent assassination campaign against Iranian scientists is different from many of the earlier episodes in a few key ways. Israel's recent attack targeted multiple nuclear experts and took place simultaneously with military force to destroy Iran's nuclear facilities, air defenses and energy infrastructure. Also, unlike previous covert operations, Israel immediately claimed responsibility for the assassinations. But our research indicates that targeting scientists may not be effective for counterproliferation. While removing individual expertise may delay nuclear acquisition, targeting alone is unlikely to destroy a program outright and could even increase a country's desire for nuclear weapons. Further, targeting scientists may trigger blowback given concerns regarding legality and morality. Targeting nuclear scientists began during World War II when Allied and Soviet forces raced to capture Nazi scientists, degrade Adolf Hitler's ability to build a nuclear bomb and use their expertise to advance the U.S. and Soviet nuclear programs. In our data set, we classified 'targeting' as cases in which scientists were captured, threatened, injured or killed as nations tried to prevent adversaries from acquiring weapons of mass destruction. Over time, at least four countries have targeted scientists working on nine national nuclear programs. The United States and Israel have allegedly carried out the most attacks on nuclear scientists. But the United Kingdom and Soviet Union have also been behind such attacks. Meanwhile, scientists working for the Egyptian, Iranian and Iraqi nuclear programs have been the most frequent targets since 1950. Since 2007 and prior to the current Israeli operation, 10 scientists involved in the Iranian nuclear program were killed in attacks. Other countries' nationals have also been targeted: In 1980, Mossad, Israel's intelligence service, allegedly bombed Italian engineer Mario Fiorelli's home and his firm, SNIA Techint, as a warning to Europeans involved in the Iraqi nuclear project. Given this history, the fact that Israel attacked Iran's nuclear program is not itself surprising. Indeed, it has been a strategic goal of successive Israeli prime ministers to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons, and experts had been warning of the increased likelihood of an Israeli military operation since mid-2024, due to regional dynamics and Iranian nuclear development. By then, the balance of power in the Middle East had changed dramatically. Israel systematically degraded the leadership and infrastructure of Iranian proxies Hamas and Hezbollah. It later destroyed Iranian air defenses around Tehran and near key nuclear installations. The subsequent fall of Syria's Assad regime cost Tehran another long-standing ally. Together, these developments have significantly weakened Iran, leaving it vulnerable to external attack and stripped of its once-feared proxy network, which had been expected to retaliate on its behalf in the event of hostilities. With its proxy 'axis of resistance' defanged and conventional military capacity degraded, Iranian leadership may have thought that expanding its enrichment capability was its best bet going forward. And in the months leading up to Israel's recent attack, Iran expanded its nuclear production capacity, moving beyond 60% uranium enrichment, a technical step just short of weapons-grade material. During Donald Trump's first term, the president withdrew the U.S. from a multilateral nonproliferation agreement aimed at curbing Iran's nuclear program. After being reelected, Trump appeared to change tack by pursuing new diplomacy with Iran, but those talks have so far failed to deliver an agreement – and may be put on hold for the foreseeable future amid the war. Most recently, the International Atomic Energy Agency board of governors declared Iran in non-compliance with its nuclear-nonproliferation obligations. In response, Iran announced it was further expanding its enrichment capacity by adding advanced centrifuge technology and a third enrichment site. Even if the international community anticipated the broader attack on Iran, characteristics of the targeting itself are surprising. Historically, states have covertly targeted individual scientists. But the recent multiple-scientist attack occurred openly, with Israel taking responsibility, publicly indicating the attacks' purpose. Further, while it is not new for a country to use multiple counter-proliferation tools against an adversary over time, that Israel is using both preventive military force against infrastructure and targeting scientists at once is atypical. Additionally, such attacks against scientists are historically lower tech and low cost, with death or injury stemming from gunmen, car bombs or accidents. In fact, Abbasi – who was killed in the most recent attacks – survived a 2010 car bombing in Tehran. There are outliers, however, including the Fakhrizadeh assassination, which featured a remotely operated machine gun smuggled into Iranian territory. Why target nuclear scientists? In foreign policy, there are numerous tools available if one state aims to prevent another state from acquiring nuclear weapons. Alongside targeting scientists, there are sanctions, diplomacy, cyberattacks and military force. Targeting scientists may remove critical scientific expertise and impose costs that increase the difficulty of building nuclear weapons. Proponents argue that targeting these experts may undermine a state's efforts, deter it from continuing nuclear developments and signal to others the perils of supporting nuclear proliferation. Countries that target scientists therefore believe that doing so is an effective way to degrade an adversary's nuclear program. Indeed, the Israel Defense Forces described the most recent attacks as 'a significant blow to the regime's ability to acquire weapons of mass destruction.' Despite Israel's focus on scientists as sources of critical knowledge, there may be thousands more working inside Iran, calling into question the efficacy of targeting them. Further, there are legal, ethical and moral concerns over targeting scientists. Moreover, it is a risky option that may fail to disrupt an enemy nuclear program while sparking public outrage and calls for retaliation. This is especially the case if scientists, often regarded as civilians, are elevated as martyrs. Targeting campaigns may, as a result, reinforce domestic support for a government, which could then redouble efforts toward nuclear development. Regardless of whether targeting scientists is an effective counter-proliferation tool, it has been around since the start of the nuclear age – and will likely persist as part of the foreign policy toolkit for states aiming to prevent proliferation. In the case of the current Israeli conflict with Iran and its targeting of nuclear scientists, we expect the tactic to continue for the duration of the war and beyond. Jenna Jordan, Associate Professor of International Affairs, Georgia Institute of Technology and Rachel Whitlark, Associate Professor of International Affairs, Georgia Institute of Technology. This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.
India Gazette
20-06-2025
- Business
- India Gazette
India's commerce secretary holds meeting on Iran-Israel conflict's trade fallout: Sources
New Delhi [India], June 20 (ANI): According to the Commerce Ministry sources, the Commerce Secretary held a meeting with stakeholders from shipping and air-cargo sectors to discuss the impact of the Iran-Israel conflict on India's trade and he actions needed to normalize it. During the meeting, the participants informed that the situation in the Strait of Hormuz is currently stable. Additionally, country's ship reporting system is in place to monitor any incidents. The freight and insurance rates are also being closely monitored, the source revealed. Furthermore, the Commerce Secretary also emphasized the need to assess the evolving situation and its impact on Indian EXIM trade. He highlighted the importance of exploring all possible alternatives in response to the situation. Recently, the Israeli Defence Forces shared that on Thursday night it targeted the missiles manufacturing sites in Iran by using approximately 120 munitions. The conflict between Iran and Israel started after the latter launched a series of strikes against military and nuclear infrastructure in Iran under 'Operation Rising Lion' on June 13. Iran responded with retaliatory strikes and launched 'Operation True Promise III'. Since the military attacks started almost a week ago, the UN nuclear watchdog has been reporting damage at several of these facilities, including at nuclear-related sites located in Natanz, Arak, Esfahan and Tehran, and their potential radiological effect, according to the statement released by the IAEA. Furthermore, amid these rising threats and regional attacks, US President Donald Trump has said he will allow two weeks for diplomatic efforts with Tehran before deciding whether to authorize military action against Iran. Meanwhile, thee Israeli Defence Forces said that on Thursday night it targeted the missiles manufacturing sites in Iran by using approximately 120 details were provided in a post on X. The IDF said, that over 60 fighter jets 'struck dozens of military targets in Iran using approximately 120 munitions.' 'Several industrial sites used to manufacture missiles were struck in the Tehran area. These sites served as a key industrial center for the Iranian Ministry of Defence. The SPND headquarters in Tehran were struck. This building was used for the development of advanced technologies and weapons supporting the Iranian regime's military capabilities.' The IDF also noted that 4 UAVs launched from Iran were intercepted and shared a video clip. Citing Israeli military, Times of Israel reported, 'SPND serves as a hub for research and development of advanced technologies and weaponry for the Iranian regime's military capabilities. It was established in 2011 by Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, the founder of Iran's nuclear weapons program'. It also mentioned citing IDF that a site that was struck had been used to manufacture a 'component essential to the regime's nuclear weapons program'. (ANI)
Time of India
20-06-2025
- Politics
- Time of India
Israeli fighter jets strike missile manufacturing industrial sites in Iran: IDF
The Israeli Defence Forces shared that on Thursday night it targeted the missiles manufacturing sites in Iran by using approximately 120 munitions. The details were provided in a post on X. The IDF said, that over 60 fighter jets "struck dozens of military targets in Iran using approximately 120 munitions." "Several industrial sites used to manufacture missiles were struck in the Tehran area. These sites served as a key industrial center for the Iranian Ministry of Defence. The SPND headquarters in Tehran were struck. This building was used for the development of advanced technologies and weapons supporting the Iranian regime's military capabilities." by Taboola by Taboola Sponsored Links Sponsored Links Promoted Links Promoted Links You May Like Social Security Recipients Under $2,384/Mo Now Entitled To 12 "Kickbacks" This Month (Tap for List) SuperSavings Learn More Undo The IDF also noted that 4 UAVs launched from Iran were intercepted and shared a video clip. Citing Israeli military, Times of Israel reported, "SPND serves as a hub for research and development of advanced technologies and weaponry for the Iranian regime's military capabilities. It was established in 2011 by Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, the founder of Iran's nuclear weapons program". Live Events It also mentioned citing IDF that a site that was struck had been used to manufacture a "component essential to the regime's nuclear weapons program". Earlier in the day, the IDF informed that sirens were sounding in southern Israel "due to missile fire from Iran". IDF wrote on X, " Sirens sounding in southern Israel due to missile fire from Iran". The conflict between Iran and Israel started after the latter launched a series of strikes against military and nuclear infrastructure in Iran under ' Operation Rising Lion ' on June 13. Iran responded with retaliatory strikes and launched 'Operation True Promise III'. Since the military attacks started almost a week ago, the UN nuclear watchdog has been reporting damage at several of these facilities, including at nuclear-related sites located in Natanz, Arak, Esfahan and Tehran, and their potential radiological effect, according to the statement released by the IAEA.
