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Forbes
20 hours ago
- Business
- Forbes
What Amazon Prime Day Predicts About Upcoming Holiday Shopping Trends
Happy family and their daughter shopping online for Christmas Controversy erupted early on July 8, the first of Amazon Prime Day's four-day sales extravaganza. Momentum Commerce, which manage $7 billion in sales annually on Amazon, reported first day sales were down 41% compared to last year. An Amazon spokesperson fired back, telling Forbes that the report was 'highly inaccurate' and that Momentum, being a third-party, didn't have access to the full dataset. However, the damage was done, thanks to the anchoring bias where the first news is what sticks in people's memory. Amazon's post-Prime Day wrap-up didn't help the situation, since it provided no sales figures or any hint at growth. It claimed recording-breaking sales, but then by expanding from a two-day to a four-day format, Amazon was bound to break records. Questions remained even after Adobe Analytics reported that aggregated four-day e-commerce sales exceeded projections, totaling $24.1 billion in online retail sales on a 30.3% year-over-year increase. Increasingly, analysts look to Prime Day results to help forecast holiday retail performance. The apples-to-oranges comparison complicates an already complicated picture. Amazon Prime Day Debrief Digging into a variety of sources provides a clearer picture of how Amazon performed over Prime Day and where the retail market is headed into the holiday season. Let's start here: Consumers didn't wait until July Prime Day to pick up their shopping pace. For June, retailers posted a 0.6% seasonally adjusted uptick in spending from May and a 3.7% unadjusted increase year-over-year. While Momentum's first day report may have been discredited, it released a final estimate that Amazon Prime Day sales over the four days generated 4.9% total sales growth compared to the combined performance of 2024's two-day Prime Day and the two days immediately following. That fell well under Momentum's prediction of 9.1% growth for Amazon over the four-day event. Momentum also expected that demand would be softer during the first two days and to build on days three and four. Similarweb, which tracks online traffic, found in an apples-to-apples comparison that Amazon web traffic was down. Average daily visits to dropped 15% comparing last year's two-day event (July 16 and 17) to this year's four-days (July 8 to 11). FOMO (fear of missing out) played in Amazon's favor in 2024. And app usage followed a similar downward trajectory. Last year's two-day event averaged 113.9 million visitors per day compared to an average of 104.1 million per day over the four-days, a 9% drop. Nonetheless, Amazon still attracted over 400 million visitors to this year's Prime Day. However, when shoppers showed up to Amazon Prime Day, they came loaded for bear, according to a post-Prime Day survey conducted among 400 consumers by Coresight. Some 48% of consumers reported making a purchase, compared with 38% last year and bettering the 34% who planned to make a purchase, based on a May pre-event survey. There also was a significant increase in the share of 2025 Amazon Prime Day shoppers who reported spending more (43%) compared to 31% last year. Coresight's consumer research also revealed shoppers widely engaged with competing sales events hosted by Walmart and Target. Over one-third of consumers reported they compared offerings across multiple retailers. They also mixed planned with spontaneous impulse buys and were motivated by early access offers and staggered promotional deals. Commenting on the survey results, Coresight's John Mercer, who manages the firm's global research, noted that there was a significant amount of opportunistic shopping behavior this year tied to Prime Day, as consumers sought to maximize value across competing sales events. 'When consumers are cautious about inflation or the macro-environment, as we've seen in previous holiday seasons, they tend to pull forward some spending to spread out costs,' he said. 'We think that is the case this year with consumers having concerns about inflation-driven price rises late in the season.' We'll have to wait until Amazon reports on July 31 to get a better accounting. It's up against a comparative 9% increase to $90 billion in North America net sales in the second quarter last year, excluding AWS. In the first quarter, North America sales advanced 8% to $92.9 billion. Holiday 2025 Early Outlook Looking ahead to the holiday shopping season, Mercer and the Coresight team see positive momentum, despite widespread consumer concern about tariffs increasing prices as the year advances. Coresight provided three possible scenarios for fourth-quarter retail performance. The most likely is retail growth in the 2.5% to 3% range, what it calls the central scenario. Interestingly, Coresight's machine-learning model forecasts a 3.5% year-over-year increase, the upside scenario. However, the analyst team considers the more moderate growth forecast to be more 'reasonable,' with a 45% overall probability versus a 30% probability for the upside scenario. Coresight also figures there is a 25% probability that retail sales will decline by 2.5% or more in the fourth quarter, should the economy take a turn for the worse with increased layoffs and rising prices causing consumer sentiment to deteriorate. 'This would accelerate deal-seeking consumer behaviors and could ultimately contribute to stagflation (slow economic growth and persistently high inflation) or a recession (two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth),' Coresight warned. Another confounding factor that might mitigate retail growth in the fourth quarter is what Mercer described as the 'lumpy' supply chain. Retailers picked up imports before April's 'Liberation Day' tariff announcement, followed by a slump and another surge after the worse of the tariffs were postponed to August 1. 'It makes it hard to match demand with supply,' he said. 'So if we get to the holiday season and there is relatively solid consumer demand, the supply may not be there to match it. We could see a replay of holiday 2021, when consumers saw bare shelves and struggled to get some products. 'Markdowns were far fewer then and more was sold at full price. So counterintuitively, we could end up seeing less discounting this holiday if the lumpy supply chain doesn't match up to consumer demand,' he said. Don't Count The American Consumer Out Despite the doomsday headlines surrounding tariff uncertainty, retail sales have climbed 3.6% through the first half of 2025 to total $4.2 trillion. While inflation inched up in June to 2.7% from 2.4% in May, it's still below the first-half 2024 average of 3.3%. By contrast, inflation has averaged 2.6% from January to June 2025. Notably, January to June 2024 retail sales rose 2.6% over 2023 – lagging behind inflation. That's not the case in 2025, where retail growth has outpaced rising prices, underscoring consumer momentum and resilience. 'Consumers continue to spend in the face of uncertainty and shrugging off tariff concerns, with U.S. retail sales showing relative stability compared to last month and outpacing inflation compared to a year ago,' said Katie Thomas, Kearney Consumer Institute. While many observers expect retail sales to slow as the year progresses after the full force of tariffs hit, American consumer resilience could defy expectations and keep retail going strong, making Coresight's upside 3.5% fourth-quarter growth scenario a distinct possibility. See Also:
Yahoo
14-07-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Momentum Commerce Confirms Record Sales for Amazon Prime Day 2025
– First-Ever Four-Day Format Shows Evolution in Consumer Shopping Patterns – BOSTON, July 14, 2025 /PRNewswire/ -- Momentum Commerce, a modern digital retail consultancy part of PMG, has released its final analysis of Amazon's Prime Day 2025 extended shopping event. The analysis observed more than $750 million in Amazon U.S. transactions across hundreds of brand accounts during the four-day Prime Day 2025 event. Extended Format Drives Overall Growth The inaugural four-day Prime Day event delivered total sales growth of 4.9% compared to the combined performance of 2024's two-day Prime Day and the two days immediately following. This growth validates Amazon's strategic decision to extend the shopping event's duration. "This year's Prime Day represented uncharted territory for brands and retailers alike," said John Shea, Head of Commerce at PMG. "Between ongoing tariff uncertainties affecting supply chains, pricing plans and advertising budgets, and Amazon's bold transition to an extended four-day format, brands had to remain incredibly nimble. The event came down to a dramatic finish, with savvy brands fine-tuning their promotional strategies until the final hours while consumers responded with significant purchasing activity in the closing stretch." Deal Activity Shows Strategic Shift Across the full four days of Prime Day 2025, 25.6% of products on Amazon US featured discounts, representing an 8% increase from 2024's rate of 23.6% While more products were on sale, the average discount depth decreased to 21.7%, down 11% from a rate of 24.4% in 2024 Deal activity showed careful orchestration throughout the event: Discount breadth increased progressively from Day 1 (22.7%) to stabilize on Days 3 and 4 (26.7%) Average discount depths grew incrementally each day (21.4%, 21.6%, 21.8%, 21.9%), suggesting retailers strategically deepened discounts to maintain momentum "Prime Day 2025's impact extended far beyond Amazon's ecosystem," commented Parks Blackwell, Vice President of Marketing and Client Development at PMG. "Our analysis showed significant growth not just on Amazon, but across the broader digital retail landscape as consumers embraced this expanded shopping window. The event's success demonstrates how Prime Day has evolved from a single-retailer sale into a cultural force and transformative market-wide phenomenon." Methodology Sales data is based on an index of data Momentum Commerce's Velocity platform observes across hundreds of brands collectively doing over $7B in GMV on Amazon US annually. Across the Extended Prime Day Event in 2025, Momentum Commerce observed more than $750 million in Amazon U.S. transactions. Discount data encompasses both Prime Day-specific deals and general promotional discounts across more than 30 million products on Amazon US according to Velocity, Momentum Commerce's proprietary commerce platform. About PMG PMG is a global independent marketing services and technology company that seeks to inspire people and brands that anything is possible. Driven by shared success, PMG brings together business strategy and transformation, creative, media, and insights, all powered by our proprietary marketing operating system, Alli. With offices in New York, London, Dallas & Fort Worth, Austin, Atlanta, Boston, Brighton, Costa Rica, and Cleveland, our team is made up of 1,000 employees globally, and our work for brands like Apple, CKE Restaurants, Dropbox, Experian, Intuit, Kimberly-Clark, Kohler, Sephora, Travelex, and Whole Foods has received top industry recognitions including Cannes Lions and Adweek Media Plan of the Year. For more information, visit About Momentum Commerce Momentum Commerce is a modern consultancy offering brands flexible technology and professional services to grow sales on digital retail platforms such as Amazon, and Comprised of half technologists and half consultants, Momentum Commerce's team provides unrivaled data assets with a scientific approach to retail media management, insights services, and bespoke projects brands need to meet their growth goals. With a mission to be the most respected firm in the space, Momentum Commerce brand clients include emerging and enterprise brands such as Crocs, Hanes, Therabody, Stella & Chewy's and many more, and formally became part of PMG in June 2025. For more information, please visit Media ContactRuben SanchezMomentum View original content to download multimedia: SOURCE Momentum Commerce
Yahoo
11-07-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Momentum Commerce Tracking of Amazon US Prime Day Sales Shows +165% Increase on Day 3, Path to Year-over-Year Growth
– Day 4 Sales Prove Critical as Expanded Sale Event Stretches Consumer Sales Over Longer Period – BOSTON, July 11, 2025 /PRNewswire/ -- Momentum Commerce, a modern digital retail consultancy part of PMG, a global independent marketing services and technology company, has released its latest observations of Prime Day 2025 for Amazon US. Demand Spreads Out with Longer Prime Day Event Going into Prime Day 2025, Amazon sales held up nicely despite tariff uncertainty that has impacted retailers, brands and consumers alike. According to Velocity by PMG, Amazon sold nearly $250B of goods in 1H 2025 in the US for more than 6% YoY growth. With Prime Day being twice as long this year, we expected to see softer demand on a YoY basis the first two days and stronger demand on a YoY basis during days 3 and 4 of the event. At least through Day 3, those trends have largely borne out. Across Momentum Commerce clients, Day 1 and Day 2 sales on Prime Day 2025 were on average 506% higher than a normal day of sales, but fell short of last year's levels by ~35% Day 3 sales came in at +165% YoY vs what would have been Prime Day 3 in 2024. We are also seeing add to cart levels exceed conversion levels, signaling that a lot of American consumers have very full Amazon shopping carts and are waiting to pull the trigger on purchases until Day 4. We anticipate that today's sales will mirror what we saw on Day 1. If that occurs, the event will reach 9.7% YoY growth for the 4 day period, making this by far the largest and most successful Prime Day of all time. More broadly, we are hearing anecdotally from many brands and retailers that Prime Day this year has spurred nice YoY growth in shopping rates off Amazon too - a trend that has not typically materialized in years past. Deal Availability is Different in 2025 Across the first 3 days of Prime Day 2025, 25.3% of products on the site were discounted. That's up from 23.6% over Prime Day 2024, an increase of 7% YoY. For those deals offered on the site, the average discount rate was 21.6%. That figure is down from 24.4% last event, meaning discounts were 11% shallower in 2025. Notably, both of these metrics - deal breadth and depth - have grown incrementally from Day 1, to Day 2, to Day 3. Average discount breadth grew from 22.7% on Day 1, to 26.3% on Day 2, to 26.7% on Day 3. Average discount depth increased by an additional +0.2 percentage points on both Day 2 and Day 3. These trends naturally help prime consumers for a big shopping day on Day 4. Methodology Sales data is based on Momentum Commerce's client set of more than 50 brands that collectively generate more than $7 billion in annual GMV on Amazon. Discount data encompasses both Prime Day-specific deals and general promotional discounts across more than 30 million products on Amazon US. About PMG PMG is a global independent marketing services and technology company that seeks to inspire people and brands that anything is possible. Driven by shared success, PMG brings together business strategy and transformation, creative, media, and insights, all powered by our proprietary marketing operating system, Alli. With offices in New York, London, Dallas & Fort Worth, Austin, Atlanta, Boston, Brighton, Costa Rica, and Cleveland, our team is made up of 1,000 employees globally, and our work for brands like Apple, CKE Restaurants, Dropbox, Experian, Intuit, Kimberly-Clark, Kohler, Sephora, Travelex, and Whole Foods has received top industry recognitions including Cannes Lions and Adweek Media Plan of the Year. For more information, visit About Momentum Commerce Momentum Commerce is a modern consultancy offering brands flexible technology and professional services to grow sales on digital retail platforms such as Amazon, and Comprised of half technologists and half consultants, Momentum Commerce's team provides unrivaled data assets with a scientific approach to retail media management, insights services, and bespoke projects brands need to meet their growth goals. With a mission to be the most respected firm in the space, Momentum Commerce brand clients include emerging and enterprise brands such as Crocs, Hanes, Therabody, Stella & Chewy's and many more, and formally became part of PMG in June 2025. For more information, please visit Media ContactsMonica Ruben SanchezMomentum View original content to download multimedia: SOURCE Momentum Commerce
CNBC
11-07-2025
- Business
- CNBC
CCTV Script 10/07/25
This week, Amazon kicked off its annual shopping promotion event, known as Prime Day. Similar to China's "618" online shopping festival, Prime Day is a limited-time sales event offered exclusively to Prime members, typically lasting for several days and covering millions of products. This year, Amazon extended the event from two to four days, and amid Trump's tariff threats, it is seen as a key window into U.S. consumer spending willingness. Prime Day runs from July 8 to 11 local time. Some consulting firms have already released preliminary sales data. Momentum Commerce, a company that advises brands on Amazon sales, manages 50 brands on the platform—including sandals, headphones, and massagers, reported that sales on the first day of Prime Day were underwhelming, with client revenue down 41% compared to the same period last year. Analysts point out that Trump's tariff policies are impacting both sellers and consumers on Amazon. On the seller side, Amazon typically requires merchants to offer at least a 20% discount during the sales event. But this year, some sellers said they were unable to offer significant markdowns. Although Amazon's CEO recently told CNBC that tariffs have not caused noticeable price increases on the platform, data from independent pricing analysts suggest otherwise. Commerce IQ, an e-commerce analytics firm, analyzed more than 50,000 products on Amazon. The results showed that the average price in May rose by 2.3% compared to April. The impact of tariffs has been particularly significant for third-party sellers on Amazon. These smaller merchants face rising costs and shrinking profit margins, making it difficult to avoid raising prices. In contrast, Amazon—as a tech giant with a market value in the trillions of dollars—has a much stronger capacity to absorb pressure. Its cloud computing business and other segments can help offset losses in e-commerce profits, allowing Amazon to accept lower profit margins on its own products and continue offering attractive discounts to consumers. The result is a notable shift: in previous years, about 60% of Prime Day orders were fulfilled by third-party sellers. This year, the trend has reversed.'Everybody we talk to, and every all the all the data we analyze are showing and Amazon is selling more this year than the third party resell.' On the consumer side, a recent survey by e-commerce software company Akeneo found that 25% of U.S. respondents said they planned to skip Prime Day this year due to tariffs. Another 57% said they are paying closer attention to prices when shopping. Indeed, on the first day of Prime Day, consumers leaned toward purchasing lower-priced items such as dish soap and protein drinks. Data analytics firm Numerator tracked more than 7,000 orders from 3,855 U.S. households. The data showed that nearly two-thirds of the products purchased on day one were priced under $20, or roughly 143 yuan. Only 3% of items cost more than $100. One final trend worth noting is the growing use of generative AI chatbots by U.S. consumers for price comparisons and purchase decisions. Adobe expects that during this year's Prime Day, traffic driven by generative AI tools will rise 3200% compared to last year. We will continue to monitor this trend closely.
Los Angeles Times
10-07-2025
- Business
- Los Angeles Times
Amazon Prime Day sales off 41% first day, brand adviser says
Inc took a big gamble this year by expanding its annual Prime Day summer sale to four days from two, betting the extension would give shoppers more time to navigate the millions of deals on its sprawling web store. Some of the preliminary results are grim, raising the stakes for the event's remaining days. Momentum Commerce, which manages online sales for 50 brands in a variety of product categories and price points, said its Amazon sales plunged 41% on Tuesday when compared with the start of Prime Day last year. The prolonged event has encouraged shoppers to do more 'treasure hunting,' said John Shea, Momentum's founder and chief executive officer. Consumers are browsing and loading up shopping carts, but postponing pulling the trigger in case better deals emerge. Shorter Prime Day sales generated more urgency because shoppers worried they'd miss the discounts, he said. Momentum Commerce sales over the four days could still increase 9.1% compared with last year's two-day event if more browsers make purchases in the final days, Shea said. Momentum manages sales on behalf of brands like Crocs, Beats and Therabody massagers and generates about $7 billion in annual sales on Amazon, giving the company a broad view of Prime Day results so far. 'It all hinges on this four-day strategy being a success,' Shea said. 'Amazon sacrificed a lot on Day 1. It's a wildly unpredictable and uncertain year.' 'They extended Prime Day from two days to four days, so it's unclear that there really is a dropoff in activity,' said Gil Luria, an analyst at D.A. Davidson & Co. 'We'll find out some when they report the quarter. But it's very hard to pin down how well Prime Day has gone.' After Bloomberg published this story, Amazon emailed a statement saying: 'Typical of statements made by third-party consultancies that don't have access to the actual data, these numbers are highly inaccurate.' The company declined to say how the numbers are inaccurate. The annual event has emerged as a bellwether of consumer sentiment since President Donald Trump's trade war clouded the economic outlook. Tariffs as high as 145% on foreign imports were threatened and then delayed to allow time for negotiations, making it difficult to determine where prices will settle. Amazon doubled the length of the annual sale because shoppers indicated they wanted more time to navigate the deals, Prime chief Jamil Ghani said Wednesday in an interview on Bloomberg Television. Shoppers gravitated toward 'everyday essentials' like teeth-whitening strips, which is the fastest-growing category on Amazon, he said, adding that the company was 'pleased by the engagement' and that it's 'very early.' Shoppers focused on low-cost items on the first day, snatching up deals on dish soap, protein shakes and other pantry staples rather than splurging on televisions and gaming consoles. Almost two-thirds of items purchased on Prime Day cost less than $20, while just 3% cost more than $100 on the first day of the four-day sale, according to Numerator, which tracked more than 7,000 orders from 3,855 households. 'Consumers appear to be purchasing a greater number of items at a lower price point this Prime Day, with the average price per item slightly lower,' Numerator analyst Amanda Schoenbauer said. 'However, with this year's sale extended to four days, there is potential for Prime Day 2025 to break previous records.' US shoppers spent $7.9 billion online across all retailers on Tuesday, up 9.9% from July 16, 2024, last year's first day of Prime Day, according to Adobe Inc., which expects spending over the four-day period to hit $23.8 billion. The Amazon sale overlaps with multiday sales offered by Walmart Inc. and Target Corp., creating an online shopping frenzy. 'The halo effect of Prime Day this year on other retailers is more significant,' Momentum Commerce's Shea said. Soper writes for Bloomberg.
