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Business Insider
24-06-2025
- Business
- Business Insider
Middle East tensions could unleash a 2-part worst-case scenario that hits stocks, Morgan Stanley says
Tensions in the Middle East could spark a series of dire developments for the stock market, strategists at Morgan Stanley said this week. In a note to clients, the bank pointed to the conflict that's unfolded between Israel, Iran, and the US over the last 12 days, with Israel and Iran agreeing to a cease-fire on Monday. Tensions, though, contributed to a spike in oil prices in the last week. While crude is back down, a big jump higher in oil stemming from any Middle East conflict is something that could raise the risk of a recession and lead to the most pessimistic outcome for stocks, the bank said. "The bear case scenario for equities tied to the recent events in the Middle East would be that oil prices rise significantly, thereby posing a threat to the business cycle," strategists wrote. Morgan Stanley's bear-case scenario has two parts that "materially" raise the risks posed to markets, the note said. Oil prices rise at least 75% on a year-over-year basis. That implies Brent crude trading around or over the $120 per barrel range, strategists said. In order for oil prices to trade that high, it would probably require "sustained" disruption to oil supply in the Strait of Hormuz, they added, a key passage for oil exporters in the Middle East. Crude prices dropped significantly from their highs last year, and have also cooled from their recent spike after Iran's limited retaliatory strike on a US base in Qatar and the subsequent cease-fire with Israel. Brent crude, which rose as much as 14% during the 12 days of the conflict, traded around $66 a barrel on Tuesday. The international benchmark was down 20% from last year's levels. West Texas Intermediate crude, which rose as much as 10%, traded around $66 a barrel, down 18% year-over-year. The oil spike needs to occur late in the business cycle. Oil price spikes that have occurred late in the business cycle have historically led to recessions, according to Morgan Stanley's analysis. Haver Analytics/Morgan Stanley Research To be sure, while Morgan Stanley sees spiraling oil prices as highly negative for markets and the economy, such a scenario isn't analysts' base case. "Through last week, the year-over-year rate of change on crude was negative. Thus, while we're respectful of the risks, there's a long way to go on this basis," strategists wrote. The bank remains positive on stocks overall. While geopolitical events have historically sparked volatility in equities, the S&P 500 rose an average of 9% in the 12 months following major conflicts dating back to 1950, according to Morgan Stanley's analysis. Prior to the cease-fire, other Wall Street forecasters were eyeing the risk of a more dramatic oil price spike and its potential effects on the US economy. On Monday, JPMorgan analysts said they saw oil prices rising as high as $130 a barrel if conflict between Israel and Iran were to disrupt energy production in the Persian Gulf. Torsten Sløk, the chief economist at Apollo Global Management, said he saw rising oil prices contributing to stagflation, a scenario where the economy slows while inflation remains stubbornly high. "In short, higher oil prices exacerbate the ongoing stagflation shock stemming from tariffs and immigration restrictions," Sløk wrote in a June note to clients.
New York Post
11-06-2025
- Health
- New York Post
Ozempic users say weightloss drugs are now chic — not shameful: ‘It makes me feel more established because I'm doing the same thing as celebrities'
When Caley Svensson, a 41-year-old content creator, first started taking the weight-loss drug Mounjaro in July 2022, she kept mum about it. If friends asked her explicitly if she was using a GLP-1 medication to shed pounds, she would be honest — but she often felt judged. Some pals made comments about how they could never give themselves a shot or asked if it was just another dangerous diet fad. 'It was like speed, no one thought this was a good solution,' said Svensson, who lives in Park Ridge, New Jersey. 9 Caley Svensson has lost nearly 100 pound on weight-loss medication. Tamara Beckwith 9 She initially kept quiet about going on Mounjaro and faced judgement from friends. Now, she said, it seems like everyone's on the drugs. Tamara Beckwith Now, Svensson said, it seems like nearly everyone has gotten off their high horse — often to get on the medications themselves. Like being in therapy, taking antidepressants or getting Botox, using weight-loss medications such as Ozempic and Mounjaro has gone from being a secretive and sometimes shameful practice to being considered chic. In certain circles everyone seems to be on them — so much so that it's almost a badge of honor. 'All the friends who judged me for it, half of them are on it now,' said Svensson, who has lost over 90 pounds. 'The dirty little secrets people used to have to stay thin, rich, and healthy, they are now out in the open.' 9 Here, Svensson is pictured before she went on the medication. Courtesy of Caley Svensson Morgan Stanley Research estimates that 24 million people in the US — roughly 7% of the population — will be taking these drugs by 2035. Tyler McLoughlin, 32, who lives in Brooklyn and works as an associate director for student life at CUNY, likes the famous and fabulous connotations around the medications. 'All the Real Housewives are taking it, all the celebrities are taking it,' said McLoughlin, who has been on a semaglutide — the class of GLP-1s that include Ozempic and Wegovy — since October. 'It kind of makes me feel more established because I'm doing the same thing as celebrities are doing.' He is also ecstatic about his new body. His 5-foot-7 frame has gone from 185 to 150 pounds. 9 Archana Pinnapureddy loves telling people about her success with tirzepatide. Tamara Beckwith 'I was just in Miami this past weekend, and this is the first time in my whole life I felt comfortable wearing a Speedo,' he said. 'I just feel so excited and so proud.' Archana Pinnapureddy, a 43-year-old tech entrepreneur, isn't just open about the fact that she's been taking tirzepatide, a drug whose brand names include Mounjaro and Zepbound, for the past year, she openly promotes the fact. She posts about it on her social media channels and tells everyone she meets how great the medication has been for her. 'I am very happy with it. It has given me this new power, that I can be my best self. I can even fit into my college clothes again,' she said. 'You also save money on food and alcohol because you aren't eating and drinking as much when you go out.' 9 Archana (right) and her twin sister Kanchana have both had success slimming down with the drug. Courtesy of Archana and Kanchana Pinnapureddy 9 Here, the two are pictured before going on the medication. Courtesy of Archana and Kanchana Pinnapureddy Pinnapureddy, who is 5-foot-1, has gone from 142 pound to 106 pounds. Her twin sister has had similar results. '[We] joke that we are walking ads for this medication,' she enthused. 'I've encouraged so many people to get on it. Some people I referred it to dropped 15 pounds in a month.' Nicholas Salza, 31 and a 911 dispatcher in Fairfield, CT, has been on tirzepatide since August 2024 and lost 125 pounds. He doesn't understand why anyone would hide or feel shame about something that can be such a boost to health. 'Why wouldn't you do something to help yourself, especially after failing in so many diets and workouts or committing to the gym for a couple of weeks and not sticking to it?' he said. 'When something works, why wouldn't you spread awareness to people who may be going through the same thing?' 9 Nicholas Salza weighed 425 pounds before (left) going on Tirzepatide. He now (right) weighs about 300 pounds. 9 'Why wouldn't you do something to help yourself, especially after failing in so many diets and workouts or committing to the gym for a couple of weeks and not sticking to it?' said Salza (pictured before his weight-loss). Courtesy of Nicholas Salza 9 'When something works, why wouldn't you spread awareness to people who may be going through the same thing?' said Salza (pictured after he slimmed down). Courtesy of Nicholas Salza Pinnapureddy notes that even if she wanted to keep mum about being on a GLP-1, it would be a challenge. 'I feel like it's kind of obvious that you're on them if you were never skinny and all of a sudden boom, you're thin,' she said. 'It's rare that you can do that especially if you're in your late '30s and '40s.'
Boston Globe
20-05-2025
- Health
- Boston Globe
Group dining while on GLP-1s? It's complicated.
All of his dining companions were on GLP-1s, a class of drugs that are increasingly used for weight loss. Most people who take them report feeling hungry less often, and when they do eat, they can feel extremely full after a few bites. Foote, a lawyer, said that the majority of his friends are on these medications, creating a new dynamic when they go out to eat. They usually order appetizers and entrees to share; his friends will take a few bites, and he will finish the rest. 'I am a 6-foot-4, 210-pound guy, and I get quite hungry,' said Foote, 36, with a laugh. Get Winter Soup Club A six-week series featuring soup recipes and cozy vibes, plus side dishes and toppings, to get us all through the winter. Enter Email Sign Up They still dine out often, 'even though it's a complete charade for them.' As long as they still split the bill — which they usually do — he is fine with the arrangement. 'I think if I were a more self-conscious person, I would care that I was the only person being a little Miss Piggy over here,' he said. 'But I love food. Some people eat to live. I love to eat.' Advertisement Morgan Stanley Research analysts estimate that 24 million people, or 7 percent of Americans, will be taking a GLP-1 by 2035. As weight-loss drugs soar in popularity, diners on and off them are wrestling with a number of restaurant etiquette quandaries, and in some cases changing their dining habits as a result. Advertisement Diners on GLP-1s are figuring out which types of restaurants they feel comfortable visiting; how to leave food on their plates without insulting the chef or their dining companions; and how to get the most value out of the experience. Those not on the drugs are contending with the pros and cons of going out with people who don't do much eating. 'There is a social component to this,' said David Wiss, a nutritionist in Los Angeles with a doctorate in public health. 'We are in a period of flux and change, and people are learning how to navigate this.' Nine months ago, Will Farmer, a talent agent in London, started taking the diabetes drug Mounjaro, a GLP-1 that many have used off-label to lose weight. Shortly after, he went to a 10-course tasting meal for a work event and could only eat a little of each course. 'I was eating a quarter of a Scotch egg,' he said. The restaurant emailed the event's host to ask if everything was OK. 'They were worried I found the food disgusting,' said Farmer, 34. Now he eats only at restaurants that serve family-style dishes or small plates so it isn't as obvious when he doesn't finish his food. 'If you go to a steak restaurant, it's weird if you leave most of it,' he said. 'But when we are all sharing, the food disappears and it's not this individual shame of leaving food behind.' As a self-described foodie and a wine and spirits publicist in New York City, Lauren Wire loves to go out to eat and order a lot of dishes. 'I want to try everything,' she said. Advertisement But as soon as she sits down, she warns everyone from the server to her dining companions that she is on a GLP-1. 'The chef might come out to say hi, or I might be on a date, and I will joke that I need a box because I am on Ozempic,' said Wire, 36. 'I don't want them to think I don't like the food, and also I want to normalize this.' It's all worth the leftovers: She likes that she can save money and enjoy the same amount of food over a longer stretch of time. Wire thinks those who dine with her and are not on the drugs only benefit. 'I still over-order, and then they get to eat more of my food,' she said, laughing. Non-dinner meetings have been the hardest for Joseph Suchodolski, a fashion consultant in New York City who has taken Mounjaro for more than two years to treat his diabetes. He tends to snack during the day, and will often insist on having just a coffee at a breakfast meeting. But during a recent morning meeting in Los Angeles, he learned his companion was also on a GLP-1. 'We both ordered breakfast, and we were just moving it around the plate,' said Suchodolski, 38. When they finally shared why, they started laughing and opening up. Wiss said it's important for patients who are new to GLP-1s to consider how they might handle social situations that can arise from eating less in public. 'When people stop drinking alcohol, for example, it's helpful for them to think through how they will respond when people offer them a drink or a waiter is disappointed they don't order wine,' he said. 'We are seeing that re-created with food.' Advertisement Some people say GLP-1s have improved the experience of eating at restaurants, though. After struggling with childhood obesity, Jackson Lemay, a content creator in Atlanta, used to feel anxious that he was eating too fast or too much while dining out. He would obsess over the menu before he got to the restaurant and shame himself if he ordered something unhealthy or too large. After taking a GLP-1 for a year and a half, that 'food noise' is gone. 'It has made me feel more confident in eating in public,' said Lemay, 27. He has never enjoyed restaurants as much as he does now. There are some people not on the drugs who refuse to dine out with people on them, though they were hesitant to say so on the record. They say they're embarrassed by full plates sent back to the kitchen, or insecure about eating more than the person across the table. But Nathaly del Carmen loves being around people with smaller appetites. Her mother, sister, and many of her friends are on GLP-1s, and she estimates that at least one person at her table is on them whenever she dines out. Del Carmen, a marketing manager in New York, said she finds herself mirroring the behavior of those on the drugs, which means she eats less and doesn't feel pressure to finish her meal if she isn't hungry. 'It helps me with impulse control,' she said. Emerging research shows GLP-1s may also curb one's appetite for alcohol. Del Carmen, 31, said some of her friends on the drugs cannot have more than one or two drinks without getting violently ill, which helps her drink less. 'They are the opposite of the one friend who eggs you on to drink more or have one more martini.' Advertisement
Khaleej Times
20-05-2025
- Health
- Khaleej Times
How GLP-1 weight loss drugs like Ozempic are changing restaurant culture
Michael Foote was at dinner with three friends at Soothr, a Thai restaurant in the East Village of Manhattan, when he looked up and noticed he was the only one eating. 'We had all ordered all this food, and we were all sharing everything,' he said, 'but I was chowing down, and my friends were all taking these little baby bites.' All of his dining companions were on GLP-1s, a class of drugs that are increasingly used for weight loss. Most people who take them report feeling hungry less often, and when they do eat, they can feel extremely full after a few bites. Foote, a lawyer, said that the majority of his friends are on these medications, creating a new dynamic when they go out to eat. They usually order appetizers and entrees to share; his friends will take a few bites, and he will finish the rest. 'I am a 6-foot-4, 210-pound guy, and I get quite hungry,' said Foote, 36, with a laugh. They still dine out often, 'even though it's a complete charade for them.' As long as they still split the bill — which they usually do — he is fine with the arrangement. 'I think if I were a more self-conscious person, I would care that I was the only person being a little Miss Piggy over here,' he said. 'But I love food. Some people eat to live. I love to eat.' Morgan Stanley Research analysts estimate that 24 million people, or 7 per cent of Americans, will be taking a GLP-1 by 2035. As weight-loss drugs soar in popularity, diners on and off them are wrestling with a number of restaurant etiquette quandaries, and in some cases changing their dining habits as a result. Diners on GLP-1s are figuring out which types of restaurants they feel comfortable visiting; how to leave food on their plates without insulting the chef or their dining companions; and how to get the most value out of the experience. Those not on the drugs are contending with the pros and cons of going out with people who don't do much eating. 'There is a social component to this,' said David Wiss, a nutritionist in Los Angeles with a doctorate in public health. 'We are in a period of flux and change, and people are learning how to navigate this.' Nine months ago, Will Farmer, a talent agent in London, started taking the diabetes drug Mounjaro, a GLP-1 that many have used off-label to lose weight. Shortly after, he went to a 10-course tasting meal for a work event and could only eat a little of each course. 'I was eating a quarter of a Scotch egg,' he said. The restaurant emailed the event's host to ask if everything was OK. 'They were worried I found the food disgusting,' said Farmer, 34. Now he eats only at restaurants that serve family-style dishes or small plates so it isn't as obvious when he doesn't finish his food. 'If you go to a steak restaurant, it's weird if you leave most of it,' he said. 'But when we are all sharing, the food disappears and it's not this individual shame of leaving food behind.' As a self-described foodie in New York City, Lauren Wire loves to go out to eat and order a lot of dishes. 'I want to try everything,' she said. But as soon as she sits down, she warns everyone from the server to her dining companions that she is on a GLP-1. 'The chef might come out to say hi, or I might be on a date, and I will joke that I need a box because I am on Ozempic,' said Wire, 36. 'I don't want them to think I don't like the food, and also I want to normalise this.' It's all worth the leftovers: She likes that she can save money and enjoy the same amount of food over a longer stretch of time. Wire thinks those who dine with her and are not on the drugs only benefit. 'I still over-order, and then they get to eat more of my food,' she said, laughing. Non-dinner meetings have been the hardest for Joseph Suchodolski, a fashion consultant in New York City who has taken Mounjaro for more than two years to treat his diabetes. He tends to snack during the day, and will often insist on having just a coffee at a breakfast meeting. But during a recent morning meeting in Los Angeles, he learned his companion was also on a GLP-1. 'We both ordered breakfast, and we were just moving it around the plate,' said Suchodolski, 38. When they finally shared why, they started laughing and opening up. Wiss said it's important for patients who are new to GLP-1s to consider how they might handle social situations that can arise from eating less in public. 'When people stop drinking alcohol, for example, it's helpful for them to think through how they will respond when people offer them a drink or a waiter is disappointed they don't order grape,' he said. 'We are seeing that re-created with food.' Some people say GLP-1s have improved the experience of eating at restaurants, though. After struggling with childhood obesity, Jackson Lemay, a content creator in Atlanta, used to feel anxious that he was eating too fast or too much while dining out. He would obsess over the menu before he got to the restaurant and shame himself if he ordered something unhealthy or too large. After taking a GLP-1 for a year and a half, that 'food noise' is gone. 'It has made me feel more confident in eating in public,' said Lemay, 27. He has never enjoyed restaurants as much as he does now. There are some people not on the drugs who refuse to dine out with people on them, though they were hesitant to say so on the record. They say they're embarrassed by full plates sent back to the kitchen, or insecure about eating more than the person across the table. But Nathaly del Carmen loves being around people with smaller appetites. Her mother, sister and many of her friends are on GLP-1s, and she estimates that at least one person at her table is on them whenever she dines out. Del Carmen, a marketing manager in New York, said she finds herself mirroring the behavior of those on the drugs, which means she eats less and doesn't feel pressure to finish her meal if she isn't hungry. 'It helps me with impulse control,' she said.
Globe and Mail
19-03-2025
- Business
- Globe and Mail
The Best Vanguard ETF to Invest $1,000 in Right Now
What to invest in now -- that may seem like a tough decision, given the current economic uncertainty in the U.S. including ongoing tariff-related concerns. Investors are worried about inflation, about stock market declines, and even a potential recession. Let's say you have $1,000 to invest right now. The Vanguard International Dividend Appreciation ETF (NASDAQ: VIGI) is a strong option to consider investing in with that amount -- or any other amount. (Remember that an exchange-traded fund (ETF) is a fund that trades like a stock.) Where to invest $1,000 right now? Our analyst team just revealed what they believe are the 10 best stocks to buy right now. Learn More » Dividend appreciation First off, the "dividend appreciation" in the title likely refers to the fund's goal of focusing on stocks that not only pay dividends, but that pay growing (i.e., appreciating) dividends. But let's take a moment to simply appreciate dividends. Per S&P Global: Numerous academic studies have shown that dividend-paying stocks have historically outperformed non-dividend payers. However, much of the available dividend research focuses on the U.S. and other developed markets. A study published by Morgan Stanley Research showed that there is a strong relationship between dividend yield and total return in developed and emerging markets, with this link being the strongest in emerging markets. And per Dan Lefkovitz at Morningstar in February: Both the Morningstar Global Markets ex-US High Dividend Yield Index and the Morningstar Global ex-US Dividend Growth Index have outperformed the broad market for developed- and emerging-markets stocks outside the US. Whereas their US counterparts have failed to keep up, the international dividend benchmarks have been on top for the past five years. This is great news for anyone worried about the U.S. market and looking into deploying dollars abroad. Note that one reason dividend payers outperform is that they have generally grown to a meaningful size and are generating fairly reliable income before they commit to paying a dividend. Meet the Vanguard International Dividend Appreciation ETF The ETF "seeks to track the performance of the S&P Global Ex-U.S. Dividend Growers Index." Its primary focus is on large-cap stocks from both developed and emerging markets that have been hiking their dividend payouts regularly. It excludes U.S. stocks, so any portion of your portfolio that you devote to this ETF will fully expose you to foreign companies. How has the fund performed over time? Well, as of this writing, it's up 4.5% year to date, and up 5.57% over the past year. Its three-year and five-year average annual returns are 4.18% and 7.83%, respectively. The ETF's expense ratio (annual fee) is a very modest 0.1, meaning that you'll pay $10 annually per $10,000 you have invested in it. (Vanguard is known for ultra-low fees.) The Vanguard International Dividend Appreciation ETF recently held about 327 stocks, with between 16% and 20% of its assets in healthcare, industrial, and technology stocks. Nearly half of its assets were recently in European companies, with 30% in Pacific companies, close to 9% in emerging markets, and 12.6% in North America -- excluding the U.S., of course. Here are its recent top holdings: Stock Percent of ETF SAP SE 5.85% Roche Holding AG 4.56% Novartis AG 3.85% Nestle 3.16% Sony Group 3.13% Data source: as of Jan. 31, 2025. So what's this Vanguard ETF's dividend yield? Well, it's 1.85%. That's not huge, but it's not paltry, either. It's actually well above the S&P 500 's recent yield of 1.23%. Better still, it's designed to grow. The S&P 500, for example, encompasses dividend payers and non-payers, and payers that are growing their payouts regularly along with those that are increasing their dividends minimally or not at all. So give this fund some consideration -- especially if you're worried about the state of the U.S. economy and/or you think that companies based outside the U.S. have a lot to offer. Don't miss this second chance at a potentially lucrative opportunity Ever feel like you missed the boat in buying the most successful stocks? Then you'll want to hear this. On rare occasions, our expert team of analysts issues a 'Double Down' stock recommendation for companies that they think are about to pop. If you're worried you've already missed your chance to invest, now is the best time to buy before it's too late. And the numbers speak for themselves: Nvidia: if you invested $1,000 when we doubled down in 2009, you'd have $315,521!* Apple: if you invested $1,000 when we doubled down in 2008, you'd have $40,476!* Netflix: if you invested $1,000 when we doubled down in 2004, you'd have $495,070!* Right now, we're issuing 'Double Down' alerts for three incredible companies, and there may not be another chance like this anytime soon. Continue » *Stock Advisor returns as of March 17, 2025 Selena Maranjian has positions in Novartis Ag and Roche Holding AG. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends S&P Global. The Motley Fool recommends Nestlé and Roche Holding AG. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
