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Bangkok Post
4 days ago
- Politics
- Bangkok Post
Signs and symptoms of Thai stagnation
That Thailand is faring poorly in the world is no longer in dispute. Not so long ago, many were in denial and adamant that Thailand could still bring a good game to engage abroad, that "Teflon" Thailand could bounce back. Now, just about all indicators are pointing south. The causes of this country's decline and stagnation are not singular but multifaceted over a two-decade period. As Thailand's situation is likely to worsen before hopes for a better future can arise, it is instructive to start counting the costs. To be sure, not all Thais are keen and happy to speak bleakly about their country's status and prospects. But doing so in a frank and forthright manner could serve as a reminder that we need to improve our approach. If we are stuck and sclerotic like this, there will be no good future for later generations. Let's start with politics. It is an understatement to say that Thai politics is unstable and unwieldy. No fewer than six prime ministers have been suspended from office in the past 20 years, and most have been removed from office. While the Constitutional Court deliberates whether the suspension of Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra should lead to her political demise, the only one to have survived is the army general who led the military coup in May 2014. True, the others are all connected to Thaksin Shinawatra either as nominees or direct family members, including his sister Yingluck Shinawatra and daughter, Ms Paetongtarn. But what's happened in Thai politics is more than meets the eye. The essence of Thai politics, as was my main point two weeks ago in this space, is not about the Shinawatra clan but about keeping establishment ways and means on top while nipping all potential threats in the bud by keeping Thailand's democratic development fractious and pathetic with legal and constitutional leashes as well as military interventions when necessary. If we revisit the establishment's virulence against the Future Forward Party and its leader, Thanathorn Juangroongruangkit, in 2019-20 and the Future Forward's successor, the Move Forward Party and its leader, Pita Limjaroenrat, in 2023-24, we can clearly see a pattern of systematically putting down challenges and attempts to reform established centres of power. One by one, almost methodically, Future Forward and Move Forward were dissolved, and Mr Thanathorn and Mr Pita were banned from running for office for ten years. In the latter case, it could lead to a lifelong ban as Mr Pita is among the 44 Move Forward leaders, now grouped under the People's Party, charged with being constitutionally unethical in proposing to reform the royal defamation law in the run-up to the May 2023 poll. Who wants to do business in and with Thailand when it is uncertain who will be the prime minister next month? Such an instability by design has incurred massive damages not confined to the economy. Thai diplomats abroad have constantly faced questions over the years about street protests, military coups, judicial interventions, and abrupt leadership changes. Changing prime ministers at short notice without predictability is bad for business and Thailand's international standing. When we turn to the economy, the costs have stacked up markedly. If Thailand's political crisis lasted for a year or two and is then reset, then it could be overlooked and shrugged off. But when it goes on and on, again and again, for 20 years, the consequences can really be felt, especially when regional competition stiffens. The trajectory of Thai economic growth has fallen to 1-2%, whereas Vietnam is concurrently clocking 6-8%. Vietnam's economic size is on course to surpass Thailand's in five years. Except for Myanmar, Thailand is now the economic laggard of Southeast Asia. Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, and even Singapore, as a developed country, are also registering faster growth than Thailand. Unsurprisingly, the Thai stock market has been the world's worst performer so far this year. No wonder this has happened when corporate governance standards are low and structural collusion and graft are high. The list of shoddy listed companies is so long that it's hard to start pinpointing. The earlier True-Dtac merger with undue monopolistic market power has been eclipsed by the ongoing saga between Airports of Thailand (AoT) and its sole duty-free concessionaire, King Power. AoT has done little despite missed payments from its concessionaire. In fact, a former AoT chief executive has just been appointed as the head of King Power. A closer read of the facts available on the internet about AoT and King Power will tell you what is wrong with the Thai stock market as a broader indictment of what is wrong with the Thai economy. There are myriad other companies that have underperformed, such as Thai Airways, the national carrier. Despite having emerged from bankruptcy proceedings, in terms of competition with other airlines, THAI has conspicuously slid down airline popularity rankings. Growth prospects in the medium term will also be dimmed by United States President Donald Trump's "reciprocal" tariffs. We have been misled by the Thai negotiating team that the US tariffs situation is under control. The Thai team has come across as complacent and nonchalant. They initially faulted Vietnam for giving it too much and getting nothing in return. But Vietnam now has a tariff deal with the US, which will attract foreign investments away from Thailand. It seems wherever we look, there's ineptitude and incompetence that show how Thailand has lost its mojo. With politics so stuck and the economy in the prolonged doldrums, it is no wonder that young Thais who get opportunities to study and work abroad will grab them with no hesitation and no intention of coming back indefinitely. Decline has become an everyday feeling in Thailand, which is felt most acutely when abroad. Being outside Thailand looking in, especially when in countries like Vietnam, gives an unmistakable sense of having fallen backwards and behind, where traditionalism trumps modernism. While it is not all doom and gloom, the reality is that the going will be tough and that by the time reform and change could emerge, there may not be much left to build back. Thitinan Pongsudhirak, PhD, is professor at Chulalongkorn University's Faculty of Political Science and a senior fellow at its Institute of Security and International Studies in Bangkok.
Time Magazine
03-07-2025
- Politics
- Time Magazine
Who Could Be Thailand's Next Prime Minister? Scenarios, Explained
History has a habit of repeating itself—but rarely as frequently as it does in Thailand. It was less than a year ago when the country ousted its fifth Prime Minister in 20 years, and already it looks set to oust another. Paetongtarn Shinawatra, who succeeded her fellow Pheu Thai party member Srettha Thavisin in August 2024, was suspended by the Constitutional Court on July 1 pending a ruling on an ethics complaint stemming from her controversial handling of a border dispute with Cambodia. Paetongtarn's deputy, Suriya Juangroongruangkit, initially stepped in as caretaker, though his rein was short-lived as he was soon replaced on July 3 by Pheu Thai veteran and former Defense Minister Phumtham 'Big Comrade' Wechayachai, following a cabinet reshuffle. Whether by court order, resignation, or political maneuvering, experts say, it's unlikely Paetongtarn will ever return to the premiership. What comes next, however, is far from clear. The populist Pheu Thai party—which has largely been seen as a political vehicle for Paetongtarn's influential father, former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra—took power after 2023 elections in which it finished second to the progressive reformist Move Forward party. In what was described at the time as a devil's bargain, Pheu Thai partnered with conservative and military-aligned parties it had campaigned against to form a fragile coalition government. In recent weeks, that fragile coalition has fallen apart. Its second-largest member party, Bhumjaithai, defected to the opposition. And remaining member parties have demanded concessions and threatened to leave, too. Should Paetongtarn be removed or resign, the Thai National Assembly will have to vote on a new Prime Minister—but only Prime Minster candidates from the 2023 election would be eligible. If a majority of lawmakers can't agree on a new leader, the caretaker would stay in place until the deadlock is broken. But if a majority of lawmakers can't agree on a new leader but can get behind a no-confidence vote on the Pheu Thai-led government, then parliament would be dissolved and fresh elections would be held—two years ahead of schedule. As much as the broader view of Thai politics seems to end up in the same place over and over again, the details of its twists and turns along the way can also be unpredictable, and no one knows exactly what lies ahead. Here are four possible paths to know. Read More: Exclusive: Thai Princes Banished Again as Eldest Says 'I Did Nothing Wrong' The ruling party holds on, with another new leader Pheu Thai fielded three candidates in the last election: Srettha, Paetongtarn, and Chaikasem Nitisiri. With Srettha gone and Paetongtarn likely on her way out, Chaikasem would be its last option. Chaikasem, who turns 77 in August, has extensive government experience: a former attorney general, he served as Minister of Justice under former Prime Minister Yingluck Shinwatra—Thaksin's sister and Paetongtarn's aunt—until that government was overthrown in 2014. But there are a number of issues surrounding Chaikasem that 'his opponents could exploit,' Napon Jatusripitak, visiting fellow and acting coordinator of the Thailand Studies Programme at the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute in Singapore, tells TIME. Chaikasem has previously expressed openness to amending Thailand's controversial lèse-majesté law, which crosses a red line for many conservative royalists. His health has also been a concern, after he suffered a stroke while on the campaign trail in 2023. Chaikasem has tried to allay concerns about his health, telling reporters recently: 'The stroke issue is no longer a problem. The large and small blood clots in my neck have dissolved, and my life is back to normal. I was able to play golf comfortably yesterday.' He offered himself as ready albeit reluctant to step up. 'I would be willing to serve if assigned. But if I had a choice, I'd rather not — that would suit me just as well,' he said. 'Am I ready to take on the premiership? As long as I remain in politics, I must always be prepared. But do I truly want to be Prime Minister? Who would willingly take on such an exhausting job? I wouldn't. I'd rather spend time with my family and do whatever I please.' Conservatives push a military return to power Right now, the Pheu Thai-led coalition still holds a slim majority. But three medium-sized junior parties—United Thai Nation, the Klatham Party, and the Democrat Party—are sizable enough that their defection would tilt the balance. Of those, only United Thai Nation has a viable path to the premiership. United Thai Nation, the party of former junta leader Prayut Chan-o-cha, is an ultra-conservative, pro-military, pro-monarchy party that fielded two Prime Minister candidates in the last election: Prayut, a former army general who seized power in 2014 and whose premiership until 2023 was marked by authoritarianism and crackdowns on democracy, and Pirapan Salirathavibhaga, the party's current leader and a deputy prime minister and energy minister in the current government. While some observers have speculated that Pirapan could make a play for the premiership, Napon says he does not have adequate support from even within his own party. Pirapan is being investigated by a national anti-corruption commission over an alleged ethics violation. Prayut, on the other hand, could emerge as a 'wildcard' candidate, Napon says, for conservatives to unite behind, if there's an impasse in parliament. Following UTN's decisive defeat at the polls in 2023, Prayut announced his retirement from politics, though he was appointed to the King's body of advisers later in the year. While Prayut is only eligible to serve two more years before he reaches constitutional term limits, Titipol Phakdeewanich, a political scientist at Ubon Ratchathani University in Thailand, tells TIME that he could potentially pursue a comeback to lead the country until its next elections in 2027 by leveraging his 'connections with the military and the establishment' to present himself as a 'reassuring' intracoalition option for Pheu Thai patriarch Thaksin, who faces multiple legal battles including a lèse-majesté prosecution, to back. 'That means the power is still controlled by the elite and the conservative establishment,' which could be a positive for Thaksin, says Titipol, though he adds: 'I don't think it would be good for the future of Thai democracy.' A 'frenemy' rejoins the coalition to helm it—or leads a new interim government with the support of the opposition The biggest blow to Pheu Thai in recent weeks has been the defection of its largest coalition partner, Bhumjaithai. The third-largest party in parliament, behind Move Forward's new incarnation the People's Party and Pheu Thai, Bhumjaithai was the largest coalition partner of the previous Prayut-led government and had made decriminalizing marijuana the centerpiece of its 2019 campaign. Its leader, former Health Minister Anutin Charnvirakul, sought the premiership in 2023 and, after joining the Pheu Thai-led coalition government—despite Pheu Thai's campaign promises to recriminalize marijuana—was placed in charge of the powerful Interior Ministry. But in June, ahead of a contentious cabinet reshuffle that was expected to see Anutin lose his post, Bhumjaithai left the coalition, and Pheu Thai quickly moved to recriminalize marijuana. Bhumjaithai originally said it would call for a no-confidence vote, but on July 3, after officially joining the opposition, it said it would hold off. The head of the opposition, People's Party leader Natthaphong Ruengpanyawut, suggested that to avoid political deadlock, one scenario could be for the opposition to back a 'caretaker government' with a limited, clear mandate until new elections, focusing on stability and democratic reforms. 'I cannot speak unilaterally,' Natthaphong said. 'Ultimately, the other side—the Bhumjaithai Party and Mr. Anutin himself—must also be in agreement with us.' Anutin, however, denied agreeing to such a plan. 'I have never proposed myself as an interim prime minister. The claim is untrue,' he said, adding that further discussions would need to take place. Napon is skeptical that a Bhumjaithai-People's Party alliance would work. If the People's Party helps Anutin achieve the premiership but opts to remain in the opposition rather than joining the government, as it said it would, 'there's a real risk that the result would be an unstable minority government that struggles to pass key legislation,' says Napon. 'Would the People's Party then be expected to help get it over the line? If so, wouldn't that blur the boundary between government and opposition?' Furthermore, 'there are no guarantees that the new government would deliver on the People's Party's conditions—namely, constitutional reform and the [eventual] dissolution of the House.' But those concerns assume the plan even gets off the ground. The first issue, Napon says, is that the two parties alone fall short of a majority needed to decide the next Prime Minister. 'They would still need to court additional MPs—potentially from hard-to-please parties.' 'Even though the People's Party has backed away from its earlier push to amend the lèse-majesté law, any form of deal-making with the party could still be viewed unfavorably by the conservative establishment, which continues to wield significant influence over the scope and longevity of Thai democracy,' Napon adds. 'Such a move could backfire on Bhumjaithai and undermine its efforts in recent years to position itself as a protector of conservative interests and a reliable ally of the establishment.' Napon believes that Anutin may be using interest in cooperation from the People's Party to 'make himself appear more valuable and viable' to the conservative establishment—and Pheu Thai. 'By suggesting that the People's Party is open to backing him under certain terms, he positions himself as the candidate with the broadest potential appeal. In reality, though, it is still Pheu Thai—not the People's Party—that holds the key to delivering him the numbers. The People's Party serves more as a political prop that will allow Anutin to raise his price in the eyes of the establishment and potential coalition partners.' A renegotiation between Pheu Thai and Bhumjaithai is not off the table, says Titipol. The two parties have historically been 'frenemies,' he says, and while they differ on marijuana policy, they do not have any repelling fundamental ideologies that could prevent them from reconciling. Anutin, according to Napon, was already 'best positioned' to be the coalition's next Prime Minister after Paetongtarn, and the Constitutional Court dropping a case against Bhumjaithai the same day it suspended Paetongtarn sent a 'strong signal' that there's support for the party within the establishment. 'I can see a scenario where Pheu Thai would be forced to support Anutin as Prime Minister,' says Napon, 'because it has no other options' that would keep it even in proximity to power. Progressives win a fresh election A very unlikely but not technically impossible option would be for Pheu Thai to relinquish its hold on government and choose to dissolve parliament—a move which the party has already said it won't do—or for the opposition to get a majority of members to support a no-confidence motion, which People's Party leader and leader of the opposition Natthaphong has reiterated is his preferred course of action. Either scenario would fast-track a new general election, which would allow voters to have their say on who gets to replace Paetongtarn. A June poll from the National Institute of Development Administration shows that the People's Party remains the public's top choice: nearly 1-in-3 respondents picked 38-year-old Natthaphong as their preferred next Prime Minister, followed by about 13% picking Prayut and 10% picking Anutin, while about 20% of respondents said they hadn't decided on a preference yet. But as the last election showed, Thailand isn't a democracy, and the people's pick won't necessarily take power following an election. 'The establishment and the deals are always made by those who are in power, and people don't actually have much say on that,' says Titipol. Still, he adds, an election would allow people to 'express their frustration' and 'dissatisfaction.' And while 'crony politics' seems unshakeable, he says, for many, optimism is too: 'In Thailand, actually, anything is possible, even if it is impossible.'
Boston Globe
01-07-2025
- Politics
- Boston Globe
Thai court suspends prime minister as political crisis spirals
Advertisement In a petition to the Constitutional Court, a group of senators sought the removal of Paetongtarn, accusing her of violating ethics standards in her talks with Hun Sun. On Tuesday, the court agreed to consider the complaint and suspended her with immediate effect. Paetongtarn said she accepted the court's decision and would soon present her case. 'I will try to prove that my intention and effort was more than 100 percent for the country,' she told reporters. She also apologized again, saying the conversation with Hun Sen was not for her personal gain. Paetongtarn has few options on how to proceed, said Isra Sunthornvut, who heads the Thailand office of Vriens & Partners, a government affairs consultancy. One path is to resign, he said, while the second is to dissolve parliament and call for new elections. Advertisement 'Or No. 3, which is the most terrible, is military intervention,' he said. 'But with the Constitutional Court coming in, I wouldn't see a reason for the military to intervene.' It is the latest upheaval in Thailand, which has suffered from long stretches of political uncertainty in recent years. Thailand has been mired in a cycle of coups and protests for decades, with the royalist-military establishment exerting its will against threats to the status quo. Since the early 2000s, the military has twice overthrown democratically elected governments linked to Thaksin Shinawatra, Paetongtarn's father. In the 2023 election, voters emphatically rejected military rule. But the party that won the most ballots, Move Forward, was blocked from forming a government and was eventually disbanded. Months after the election, Thaksin's Pheu Thai Party took power. An ally, Srettha Thavisin, became prime minister, but, less than a year later, was removed by the Constitutional Court over an ethics complaint. He was succeeded by Paetongtarn. Since taking office, she has been viewed as a puppet of Thaksin's. But the roots of the current crisis lie in tensions with Cambodia that have flared occasionally over the decades. In a brief skirmish in May, a Cambodian soldier was killed, and the relations between the two neighbors quickly deteriorated to the lowest point in years. Paetongtarn and Hun Sen spoke to each other on June 15, aided by translators. Paetongtarn called him 'uncle' and offered to 'arrange' anything that he wants. She also urged him to ignore 'the opposite side,' a reference to the Thai military. Her comments drew condemnation from lawmakers, both those in her coalition and in the opposition, who all called on Paetongtarn to resign. The second-largest member of her governing coalition, the Bhumjaithai Party, quit her alliance last month. Quickly, the legal challenges against Paetongtarn piled up. Advertisement It remains unclear how long the court will take to reach a verdict on Paetongtarn's fate. But she has been given 15 days to defend herself against the charge, the court said in a statement. In the interim, Suriya Jungrungruangkit, the deputy prime minister, is set to be appointed the acting prime minister, according to the Secretariat of the Cabinet. For now, Paetongtarn is trying to hold on to at least one other title: On Tuesday, she appointed herself culture minister, though she has not been sworn into the role. There is precedent in Thailand for suspended prime ministers to be returned to the role. In 2022, the court suspended Prayuth Chan-ocha, the general who staged the most recent coup, while it considered a petition to remove him from office for overstaying his term. He was restored to the job in five weeks. But even if she returns to office, Paetongtarn has precious little political capital. A poll conducted last month showed that her approval rating had plummeted to 9.2 percent from 30.9 percent a few months earlier. Thaksin, 75, is also facing legal challenges. On Tuesday, he went on trial on a criminal charge of insulting the monarchy, a case that could send him to prison for up to 15 years. This article originally appeared in
Saudi Gazette
01-07-2025
- Politics
- Saudi Gazette
Thai prime minister suspended over leaked phone call
BANGKOK — Thailand's Constitutional Court has suspended Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra, who has come under mounting pressure to resign over her leaked phone conversation with former Cambodian leader Hun Sen. The clip, in which Paetongtarn called him "uncle" and criticised a Thai military commander, sparked public anger and a petition for her dismissal, which the court is now considering. That could make Paetongtarn the third politician in the powerful Shinawatra clan - which has dominated Thai politics for the past two decades - to lose power before completing their term. Her ruling coalition is already teetering with a slim majority after a key conservative ally abandoned it two weeks ago. The Constitutional Court voted 7-2 to suspend her while they consider the case for her dismissal and she has 15 days to present her defence. In the meantime the deputy PM will serve as the country's acting leader. Paetongtarn, however, will remain in the cabinet as culture minister, a new appointment following a cabinet reshuffle that was endorsed hours before she was suspended. On Tuesday, Paetongtarn apologised again, adding that the purpose of her phone call with Hun Sen was "more than 100%... for the country". The call was about the border dispute between the two countries - although it's decades old, tensions have risen again since late May when a Cambodian soldier was killed. The leaked audio especially angered conservative lawmakers who accused her of appeasing Hun Sen and undermining Thailand's military. But she defended herself on Tuesday, saying, "I had no intent to do it for my own interest. I only thought about how to avoid chaos, avoid fighting and to avoid loss of lives. "If you listened to it carefully, you'd understand that I didn't have ill intentions. This is what I'll focus and spend time on explaining thoroughly." If she is eventually dismissed, Paetongtarn will be the second prime minister from the Pheu Thai party to be removed from premiership since August last year. At that time, her predecessor Srettha Thavisin was dismissed, also by the constitutional court, for appointing to his cabinet a former lawyer who was once jailed. Days later, Paetongtarn - whose father is Thailand's deposed leader Thaksin Shinawatra - was sworn in as prime minister. Tuesday's decision once again underscores the constitutional court's power to unmake governments, which critics say can be weaponised to target political opponents. This court has dissolved 34 parties since 2006, including the reformist Move Forward, which won the most seats and votes in the 2023 election but was blocked from forming the government. "This has become a pattern in Thai politics... a part of the Thai political culture, which is not what a true political process is supposed to be," said Titipol Phakdeewanich, a political science lecturer at Ubon Ratchathani University. "The suspension by court order shouldn't have happened but most people could see its legitimacy because the leaked conversation really made people question if the PM was genuinely defending the interest of the country." Paetongtarn, 38, remains the country's youngest leader and only the second woman to be PM after her aunt, Yingluck Shinawatra. Already struggling to revive a weak economy, Paetongtarn saw her approval rating fall to 9.2% last weekend, down from 30.9% in March. The court's decision comes on the same day as Paetongtarn's father, who was seen as the driving force behind her government, battles his own political troubles. Thaksin is fighting charges of insulting the monarchy over an interview he gave to a South Korean newspaper nine years ago. His trial started on controversial political leader, who returned to Thailand in 2023 after 15 years in exile, is the most high-profile figure to face charges under the country's notorious lese majeste return was part of a grand compromise between Pheu Thai and its former conservative include the military, which deposed two Shinawatra governments in coups, and groups close to the monarchy. — BBC
Yahoo
19-06-2025
- Politics
- Yahoo
Is Thailand on the Cusp of Another Coup?
Thai police stand outside the Government House in Bangkok on June 19, 2025, in anticipation of Thai protests to call for the government's resignation. Credit - Lillian Suwanrumpha—AFP/Getty Images Domestic regime change is no stranger to Thailand, which has had at least 12 successful coups and 31 Prime Ministers since the founding of its current constitutional monarchy in 1932—itself the product of a coup. It's for that reason that Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra, who took over after her fellow Pheu Thai party predecessor Srettha Thavisin was ousted from power last year, has sought to insulate the government against military takeovers, which have typically occurred in conjunction with conservative, royalist elites. It's likely, however, that she's failed. Amid an escalating crisis sparked by border tensions with neighbor Cambodia, experts and observers of Thai politics tell TIME that Paetongtarn is all but certain to be deposed within months, if not imminently. She would follow in the path of her father, divisive but influential Thai power broker and former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, as well as her aunt, former Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra, who were both forced out of office early in 2006 and 2014, respectively. Whether by coup or political maneuvering, how exactly Paetongtarn may leave remains to be seen. But Thailand's increasingly likely change in leadership—and the uncertainty that inevitably will follow—comes at a trying time of both economic headwinds and geopolitical challenges, threatening to throw the country into further instability. Here's what to know. Srettha—and by extension Paetongtarn—only attained the premiership through a faustian bargain after 2023's election saw the progressive, pro-reform Move Forward party receive the most votes but just shy of the majority needed to form the government. Pheu Thai, a populist party that placed second and was initially seen to be more aligned with Move Forward, partnered instead with conservative minority parties, including some of the pro-military forces it had campaigned against, to form a coalition of unlikely allies. Now, that coalition is splintering apart. The government that was formed on a shaky foundation started showing cracks last December, when Pheu Thai lawmakers sought to pass anti-coup legislation that was opposed by other members of its coalition. On the 11th anniversary of the nation's 2014 coup last month, Deputy Prime Minister and Defense Minister Phumtham Wechayachai told reporters that Thailand had made democratic progress since then, but he couldn't 'rule it out' that there would be 'no more coups.' A border dispute with Cambodia just days later significantly raised the possibility that the next coup could come quite soon. On May 28, a longstanding row between Cambodia and Thailand was reignited after an early morning clash in the so-called Emerald Triangle that left a Cambodian soldier dead. The incident has inflamed nationalist sentiment on both sides of the border, and some have speculated—without evidence—that it may have been a 'calculated provocation by hardline elements within the military.' Since then, the two countries' Prime Ministers, Thailand's Paetongtarn and Cambodia's Hun Manet have engaged in diplomatic back-and-forths, but have generally tried to keep the peace. The Royal Thai Army, however, said it was on high alert, announcing that it was ready for a 'high-level military operation … to defend the country's sovereignty to the fullest extent if the situation is called for.' Amid allegations from some critics that she was already 'too soft' on Cambodia in the dispute given a longstanding friendship between her father Thaksin and Hun Manet's father, former Cambodia Prime Minister Hun Sen, Paetongtarn came under intense scrutiny following the leak on Wednesday of part of a phone call with Hun Sen, in which she called him 'Uncle' and promised to 'take care' of his concerns, even referring to a prominent Thai army commander as being part of 'the opposite side.' Despite the commander in question saying he didn't mind, the call immediately ignited controversy and calls for Paetongtarn's resignation, which she has refused. Paetongtarn defended the call as a 'negotiation technique' but apologized for the 'public resentment' it caused. Hun Sen admitted to recording the call and said that he shared it with around 80 people. He also released the full audio, which ran for more than 17 minutes, on his social media platform, explaining that he believed recording was necessary 'in order to avoid any misunderstanding or misrepresentation in official matters.' The Thai foreign ministry criticized Cambodia, saying the release of the call undermined neighborly 'trust and respect' as well as 'good faith' efforts to resolve the border dispute peacefully. Since the call, Pheu Thai's governing coalition lost its second biggest member: the conservative Bhumjaithai party, which announced that the call was to blame, though tensions had been building between its leader, former Prime Minister candidate Anutin Charnvirakul, and Paetongtarn over a fight for control of the influential Interior Ministry. 'Bhumjaithai will work with all Thai people to support the army and officials who safeguard the sovereignty, territorial integrity, and interests of Thailand in all ways,' Bhumjaithai said in a statement. Amid concerns of a looming coup, the Thai army chief urged the Thai public on Thursday to remain united and trustful of the military to uphold the democratic system. Paetongtarn, during her hasty call-apology press conference, also sought to quell rumors of a power struggle. 'The government and armed forces are united, so I call on the people to have unity with the government,' she said. 'We should not fight among ourselves.' Still, Natthaphong Ruengpanyawut, the leader of the opposition People's Party that grew out of the dissolved Move Forward party, called on Paetongtarn to return 'the mandate to the people' by dissolving parliament, which would lead to a snap election. (Barring an early dissolution, the next Thai general election wouldn't need to be called until 2027.) 'This will prevent certain groups from exploiting Paetongtarn's mistake and inciting an incident that could harm our democracy,' Natthaphong said. 'History is repeating itself,' Napon Jatusripitak, visiting fellow and acting coordinator of the Thailand Studies Programme at the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute in Singapore, tells TIME. The Shinawatra dynasty, Napon says, 'had other ways to play this out,' but 'they are shooting themselves in the foot here by making it easy for conservative hardliners to label them as betraying the country, selling the country out for their own family's private benefit.' Royalist and conservative factions already had deep-seated mistrust of Paetongtarn because of her father Thaksin, who is widely seen as pulling the strings behind the scenes. Mark S. Cogan, associate professor of peace and conflict studies at Kansai Gaidai University, described the Cambodia border crisis as 'icing on top of this cake,' as the Paetongtarn government was already losing public confidence for failing to effectuate its populist campaign promises, including revitalizing the economy with a 'soft power' push. Distrust of the Shinawatras, Pheu Thai's failure to deliver material improvements to people's lives, and the Cambodia border crisis created the 'perfect storm to rally opposition,' says Napon. The army may not even need to get involved to remove Paetongtarn, says Termsak Chalermpalanupap, a visiting senior fellow at the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute. With Bhumjaithai's defection to the opposition, all that's likely needed is the resignation of another medium-sized party from the coalition government, such as the United Thai Nation Party, an ultra-conservative pro-military party. It may be 'too soon' to call for the dissolution of parliament, says Termsak, as the last general elections happened so recently. 'There is still a possibility that some caretaker Prime Minister can step in and then try to settle the border issue first.' But so far, as Paetongtarn has rebuffed calls to resign, her removal may have to be orchestrated by the courts, similar to her aunt Yingluck and her predecessor Srettha. Paetongtarn's call with Hun Sen has already prompted ethics complaints. On Thursday, a Thai Senate committee said it will petition the Conservative Court and the National Anti-Corruption Commission to remove Paetongtarn for her 'alleged mishandling of Thai-Cambodia border disputes.' Cogan believes it will be 'very difficult [for Paetongtarn] to recover' from the call scandal. Instead, Pheu Thai would be wise, he says, to try 'managing the decline' and 'salvaging what's left' of the party's domestic agenda. 'There is no good time for regime change,' Cogan says, explaining that a change in leadership threatens the continuity of both domestic and international policies. 'Geopolitically, we are dealing with a new series of flash points,' says Napon. 'It comes at a time when we haven't finalized any negotiations in tariffs with the Trump Administration.' The World Bank lowered the economic growth prospects for the Southeast Asian country, and Thailand's economy is expected to take another hit when U.S. President Donald Trump's 'Liberation Day' tariffs—at a rate of 36% for Thailand—are set to go back into effect after a temporary global reduction ends in July. Napon adds that it would be 'highly disastrous' for Thailand to undergo a regime change that's military-led. Thailand's past military interventions have seen massive democratic crackdowns—including restrictions on freedom of assembly and rampant use of lese majeste laws to silence critics. While the last Thai election brought hopes of a trend toward democracy, Napon warns that if the military returns to power, 'there may not be a quick reversal to [a] democratic regime.' Contact us at letters@
