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Time of India
12 hours ago
- Business
- Time of India
US higher education faces $7 billion hit as international commencements set to drop by 40% this September
US may lose 150,000 international students as visa delays threaten September commencements. (AI Image) A new analysis forecasts a significant downturn in international student commencements in the US this fall, with projected declines of 30% to 40% for September 2025. The data, jointly produced by NAFSA and research consultancy JB International, highlights a potential loss of up to 150,000 international students, driven largely by visa processing backlogs during the peak May–August window. The projected decline would translate into a 15% reduction in international enrolments for the 2025/26 academic year compared to the previous year. According to the NAFSA/JB International study, this would have an estimated economic impact of US$7 billion and affect over 60,000 jobs across the country. Visa delays and travel restrictions behind enrolment decline The study attributes the projected decline to four primary factors: the suspension of student visa interviews from May 27 through June 18, limited visa appointment availability after that suspension was lifted, a softening trend in visa issuance through early 2025, and travel restrictions impacting multiple sending markets. As per data reported by the ICEF, F-1 visa issuance declined by 12% from January through April 2025 compared to the same period in 2024. The drop was more severe in May 2025, when F-1 issuances fell by 22%. JB International CEO Jason Baumgartner noted that "we might be looking at as much as an 80–90% decline in visa issuance for the month of June,' due to the pause and delays in restoring full processing. NAFSA CEO Fanta Aw stated that, 'The issue doesn't seem to be one of capacity at US embassies, because we see high volumes of visas [across all categories] issued,' as quoted by the ICEF. by Taboola by Taboola Sponsored Links Sponsored Links Promoted Links Promoted Links You May Like Citizens Advice: 3M Brits Miss £520 for Flight Delays – Are You Eligible? Flight Compensation Undo 'Where the problem seems to reside is around international students in particular.' Travel bans affecting major sending countries The report also cited new US travel policies as a contributing factor. On June 4, the US administration implemented a full travel ban for 12 countries and a partial ban on citizens from another seven. Additionally, the government indicated it was considering similar restrictions on travelers from 36 more countries, including key student markets in Africa. NAFSA also flagged limited appointment availability in countries such as India, China, Nigeria, and Japan, all of which represent major sources of international students for US institutions. Actual and projected international student enrolment and economic impact in the United States, 2020/21–2025/26. • Green bars represent total dollars. • Orange line (with squares) shows the number of students. • Dark blue line (with squares) indicates the number of jobs. Source: NAFSA/JB International Economic and enrolment implications The following table summarizes the projected changes and their estimated impacts: Metric Projected Impact Decline in new international students 30–40% (up to 150,000) Reduction in total enrolment (2025/26) 15% Economic loss US$7 billion Jobs affected Over 60,000 Stakeholders urge government intervention NAFSA has called on the US Department of State to expedite visa processing and prioritize F-1, M-1, and J-1 applicants. In addition, the association has urged that these categories be exempted from travel bans, while maintaining standard security vetting procedures. On July 24, 15 Members of Congress issued a letter to Secretary of State Marco Rubio, requesting clarification on what the department is doing to resolve visa backlogs, particularly in India. 'We are dismayed at the possibility that many of these bright young individuals may be blocked... from continuing their education and research in the United States,' the letter states, as reported by the ICEF. TOI Education is on WhatsApp now. Follow us here . Ready to navigate global policies? Secure your overseas future. Get expert guidance now!
Forbes
16 hours ago
- Business
- Forbes
U.S. Risks $7 Billion Economic Hit As International Students Fall
The U.S. could lose as much as $7 billion in local economic activity this fall due to a steep fall in international student enrollments, according to a new analysis by NAFSA: Association of International Educators and JB International. In recent months, actions by the Trump administration have discouraged international students from pursuing study in the U.S., including heightened scrutiny of social media accounts, the implementation of travel bans and shifting visa policies. Data from the Department of Homeland Security's SEVIS system and the State Department point to a 30-40% fall in new international students, which could culminate in a 15% overall decline in international students for fall 2025. This shortfall could translate to more than 60,000 U.S. job losses, according to the report. 'This analysis, the first to calculate the potential economic impact of fewer international students on cities and towns across the country, should serve as a clarion call to the State Department that it must act to ensure international students and scholars are able to arrive on U.S. campuses this fall,' said Fanta Aw, executive director and CEO of NAFSA, in a press release. According to the NAFSA study, there are four main reasons why international students will decline in this manner: Unless student visa issuance rebounds quickly this summer, U.S. universities may have 150,000 fewer international students on their campuses this fall semester, according to the study. Colleges and universities have been preparing for a decline from the recent high of 1.12 million international students in this country—a number that includes both enrolled students and those on Optional Practical Training (OPT), the post-study work program. The Institute of International Education found that 40% of institutions expect a decline in international undergraduates, while 49% anticipate a drop in graduate student enrollment. Similarly, a NAFSA survey of around 150 member institutions showed that 78% expect declines in both undergraduate and graduate international student enrollment. According to calculations published by The Financial Times, a 10% drop in international student enrollment could cost U.S. colleges and universities $3 billion in revenue. Nearly a third of that—about $900 million—would come from lost tuition revenue. There have been Indian media reports of a potential 70% decline in Indian student enrollments at U.S. universities. In May, data from Studyportals, a global education search platform, indicated student interest in U.S. study was at its lowest point since pandemic, with more students considering alternatives like the U.K. and Australia.
The Hill
24-07-2025
- Business
- The Hill
International students look to cleanse social media amid new Trump visa policy
International students are scrubbing their social media or in some case reevaluating their decision to study in the U.S. after the Trump administration announced new visa screenings without offering specific insight into what could get someone on the no-entry list. Companies that specialize in mass deletions of posts have seen an uptick in services since the Department of Homeland Security's announcement. But clearing out everything the administration finds controversial could raise other alarms, leaving foreign students in a bind. 'I think students have pretty much assumed that anything is open for interpretation or misinterpretation, and so as a result, they're extremely cautious when it comes to engaging with social media moving forward,' said Fanta Aw, executive director and CEO of the Association of International Educators, or NAFSA. The new screenings were announced in June after a three-week pause on visa interviews to update the policy, part of a broader Trump crackdown on both legal and illegal immigration. The State Department said it would target those 'who pose a threat to U.S. national security,' without specifying what that would entail, and demanded anyone applying for a student visa make their social media accounts public. The go-to response from students appears to be cleansing their social media of anything even remotely controversial. Dan Saltman, CEO and founder of says his company's trajectory has 'greatly accelerated' with 10 percent growth each month for the past few months. His firm offers a software that allows individuals to mass delete posts across 30 different platforms. 'Basically, our understanding is that people are using this to clean up any political takes that they have, whatsoever, anything that can be seen as inflammatory, really kind of quelling freedom of speech,' Saltman said. 'We've especially seen this growth in international countries, especially India, China, South Korea, have been some of the biggest growth areas that we've seen on that front. And we've also seen it as well from people in the U.S. and the U.K., very heavily. So, it's been an unprecedented level of change of how people think about their privacy,' he added. China and India are the two biggest exporters of students to the U.S. In the 2023-2024 school year, around 1.1 million international students came to America, with those two nations making up more than half. Shaun Carver, executive director of International House at the University of California, Berkeley, said his group has seen a 40 percent decrease in Chinese and Indian students since last year. 'India and China have always been 9 to 10 percent of the I-House population, and this year there both of them are below 6,' Carver said, adding other countries in Africa and the Middle East appear to be securitized heavily. Students and advocates have been spooked for months as they watch the Trump administration target the visas of, and, at times, arrest international students who have expressed pro-Palestinian views. The administration says those under scrutiny have expressed support for Hamas or antisemitism, but students fear getting caught up in a wide net that could potentially flag anything anti-Israel — or anti-Trump — as disqualifying. In response to requests for clarification from The Hill, a State Department spokesperson reiterated students need to change their account settings to 'public' for vetting purposes. 'As with any country, applying for a visa is voluntary, and individuals are free to decide whether to pursue travel to the United States,' the spokesperson added. Plans to purge social media accounts could raise alarms, but the problem could be even worse for someone who never had social media before. 'It's a catch-22 for students: If you didn't have any social media presence to begin with, that could be considered suspect. And so what do you do about that?' Aw asked. 'You go ahead and you create a social media presence, and then, because you've created a social media presence' that would have little activity 'could that also be considered suspect? So there's, there's no winning here on any level,' she added.
Business Recorder
24-07-2025
- Politics
- Business Recorder
Dismantling DPP: a risky gamble with Pakistan's food security
The recent restructuring of Pakistan's agricultural regulatory framework under the National Agri-Trade and Food Safety Authority (NAFSA) Ordinance 2025 has created widespread confusion, institutional uncertainty, and serious operational disruptions. Intended as a reform to modernize and streamline food safety and agri-trade functions, the implementation of this ordinance — particularly the dissolution of core functions of the Department of Plant Protection (DPP) — has proven technically inconsistent and strategically misaligned. For decades, the DPP functioned as Pakistan's National Plant Protection Organisation (NPPO) under the International Plant Protection Convention (IPPC) and FAO. It was not merely a plant quarantine body — it managed pesticide regulation, led the country's desert locust control program, conducted aerial pest control operations, and maintained critical international partnerships with bodies like the FAO and regional surveillance networks, including neighbor countries. However, the new NAFSA framework has thrown the future of these vital functions into uncertainty. The situation worsened on July 3, 2025, when the Federal Secretary of the Ministry of National Food Security and Research (MNFS&R) approved the transfer of 282 - technical and supporting regular staff members (BPS 01 to 19)—key to desert locust operations—to the federal government's Establishment Division's surplus pool. This move effectively dismantles nearly half of DPP's core team and put the last nail in its coffin. Alarmingly, there's no clarity on whether more staff will be added to this list in subsequent phases or not. Adding to the contradiction, the same ministry/department has reportedly hired 50–100 contract entomologists under the guise of a desert locust project—only to reassign them to plant quarantine functions. These bureaucratic inconsistencies raise serious concerns about decision-making within the ministry. Such actions appear to prioritize administrative face-saving over food security, ignoring the looming threat of desert locust infestations, which could lead to devastating consequences for crops and national food supplies. In response to the earlier article, the Federal Secretary for MNFS&R, Waseem Ajmal Chaudhry, clarified that the DPP would retain its desert locust control mandate. He said, 'The new authority will not do the locust control function. That is why it is not part of the new law… DPP is not being completely disbanded. In fact, it would be a dedicated organization for locust control at the federal level.' While this statement provided partial relief, it also exposed the structural disorder at play. If DPP will continue to function for locust control, then what happens to its other mandates and no official notification has addressed these core responsibilities. Contradictions continue to emerge. In a recent meeting with the Russian Ambassador, Federal Minister Rana Tanveer Hussain acknowledged DPP's ongoing role in fruit fly surveillance to support export standards. Meanwhile, industry bodies like the Pakistan Crop Protection Association (PCPA) continue to engage with DPP on matters like pesticide registration — indicating that DPP's functions remain active despite the formal creation of NAFSA. This hybrid status—where DPP is simultaneously being phased out and still actively functioning — raises major compliance concerns under international agreements like the IPPC. According to IPPC standards, an NPPO must be a recognised government body, not a semi-autonomous or undefined entity. Countries like India, Kenya, and Australia retain their NPPOs directly under agricultural ministries to ensure policy alignment and international credibility. Pakistan's ambiguous model threatens its compliance status and could undermine agricultural exports. The core issue stems from how the restructuring was executed: with minimal input from domain experts and heavy reliance on bureaucratic decisions. This exclusion of technical professionals has led to flawed policies, unclear jurisdictional boundaries, and a total lack of transition planning—leaving exporters, provincial departments, and global partners unsure of whom to approach for certifications, risk assessments, and phytosanitary assurances. A more effective approach would have been a phased transition plan, involving stakeholders and domain professionals from the outset. Instead, what exists now is a disjointed system marked by overlapping mandates, legal ambiguity, and operational paralysis. Despite reassurances from officials like Mr. Chaudhry, key questions remain unanswered: Who will now serve as Pakistan's legally designated NPPO under the IPPC and desert locust coordination and control organisation? Will NAFSA be recognized in that role internationally—and under what legal framework? How will essential services like pesticide registration, pest surveillance including cross boundary insects, and export certifications continue without disruption? Until these questions are resolved through formal legal instruments, transparent policy declarations, and the appointment of competent technical professionals, the restructuring cannot be considered complete or credible. As Pakistan moves through the critical kharif season, these unresolved issues carry significant economic and diplomatic risks. Immediate action is needed to restore institutional continuity, define clear mandates, and ensure that experienced professionals are empowered to safeguard the country's agricultural and phytosanitary systems. The DPP has historically acted as Pakistan's first line of defence against invasive insect pests and crop diseases. It was structured like a paramilitary organisation, designed to address pest threats across three seasonal breeding zones: summer, winter, and spring. Its headquarters in Karachi — once a full-fledged base—along with regional hubs in all four provinces, included aerial control infrastructure, landing strips, operational vehicles, and field outposts in key locations like Mirpur Khas, Sukkur, Bhitshah and Qambar Bakrani in Sindh, while Quetta, Khuzdar, Uthal, Panjgur, Pasni, Chaman, Taftan, Turbatetc in Balochistan, similarly Rahimyar Khan, Bahawalpur, Lahore, Rawalpindi in Punjab and Peshawar and Mardanin KP with two hangars Karachi and Walton Lahore. Hence, it was once a huge organization with no comparison in the region. However, the head office's land is allocated and given to different 'orphan' departments like FSC&RD, PARC and Animal Quarantine. It also housed technical workshops, maintenance facilities, spare parts depots, and fleets of pest control vehicles. The department was capable of mounting rapid locust surveillance and aerial spray operations, backed by trained engineers and entomologists. Now, this robust infrastructure is being broken up — its land repurposed, its teams disbanded, and its mandate diluted. Without strategic foresight, Pakistan risks losing a vital institution that has protected its crops, supported its exports, and fulfilled international commitments for decades. The path forward must prioritize clarity, expertise, and legal coherence. Otherwise, this reform may ultimately prove to be a self-inflicted wound to Pakistan's agricultural/food security and global credibility. Copyright Business Recorder, 2025
Arab News
14-07-2025
- Business
- Arab News
Pakistan launches new agri-trade authority to promote modern agriculture
ISLAMABAD: Pakistan has established a new regulatory body to reform its agriculture sector and bring domestic food safety standards in line with international requirements, state-run Associated Press of Pakistan (APP) reported on Monday. The new National Agri-Trade and Food Safety Authority (NAFSA) has been set up under a reform drive led by the Special Investment Facilitation Council (SIFC), a civil-military hybrid body formed in 2023 to fast-track foreign investment and economic reform in strategic sectors, including agriculture, mining, IT and defense production. NAFSA consolidates the Department of Plant Protection (DPP) and the Animal Quarantine Department into a single authority aimed at promoting modern agricultural practices, reducing excessive chemical use and facilitating trade in agricultural products. 'The establishment of the new body, by merging DPP and Animal Quarantine, is an important milestone toward development of agriculture sector,' the APP report stated. The report did not provide further details on NAFSA's governance, regulatory powers and rollout timeline. Agriculture remains a cornerstone of Pakistan's economy, employing nearly 38 percent of the workforce and contributing around 19 percent to the country's GDP. However, the sector has long faced challenges, including outdated practices, poor regulatory oversight, low export competitiveness and barriers in meeting international sanitary and phytosanitary (SPS) standards. By centralizing regulatory oversight and compliance, the government hopes NAFSA will address long-standing inefficiencies and support value-added agricultural exports. 'NAFSA is aimed at introducing modern agricultural systems according to global standards,' the APP said. 'It will help reduce unnecessary use of Methyl Bromide, saving up to forty thousand rupees per container.' Methyl Bromide, a fumigant used to control pests during export processing, has been heavily restricted under global environmental protocols due to its ozone-depleting properties. NAFSA's efforts to limit its use are expected to improve both environmental sustainability and export cost efficiency. The move aligns with broader reforms spearheaded by the SIFC, which was formed through a civil-military consensus to fast-track investment decisions, cut bureaucratic delays and attract foreign capital, especially from Gulf and Chinese partners, to priority sectors. 'Transparency and innovation is being promoted in the agriculture sector with the support of the SIFC,' the APP report said.
