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Indian Express
a day ago
- Business
- Indian Express
From 58th to 55th largest – how Nigeria's GDP climbed up the world rankings in 1 day
Until July 20, Nigeria was the 58th largest economy in the world. A day later, it rose three spots to the 55th rank, overtaking Ukraine, Qatar, and Hungary in the process as it added more than $50 billion, or roughly 30 per cent of its GDP, in 2024. On July 21, Nigeria's National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) published the results of its GDP rebasing exercise, which saw the base year of the indicator being updated to 2019 from 2010, among other changes. The result? Nigeria's GDP in 2024 is now estimated at $243 billion in nominal terms, up from $187 billion forecast by the International Monetary Fund (IMF). Change in methodology A new base year – which essentially means measurement of GDP, or the final value of goods and services in any particular year, with respect to the prices prevailing in that year – does not automatically lead to a larger economy. However, Nigeria's base-year revision exercise included other more meaningful changes in the manner in which the African nation calculates the GDP. This included increasing the scope of its methodology to include previously undercounted sectors such as digital services, pension fund operations, and e-commerce activities, among others, in what the NBS has called 'by far the most comprehensive rebasing' it has ever carried out. As the NBS said, technological development, structural changes, and changes in production and consumption patterns mean 'the methods and data used in estimating GDP must change with the times to reflect current economic realities'. This is not the first time Nigeria has seen such a huge increase in its GDP due to the base year revision. More than a decade ago, change in the base year from 1990 to 2010 had helped propel Nigeria to the position of Africa's largest economy thanks to an even-larger 89 per cent increase in the GDP to $510 billion in 2014. Wait, $510 billion? Has the Nigerian economy shrunk by half in the last 10 years to $243 billion? Well, sort of. At least in US dollar terms. Points of concerns While the rebasing brings Nigeria $50 billion closer to achieving the government's target of becoming a $1 trillion economy by 2030, the objective is well-nigh impossible after the Nigerian currency, the naira, was devalued sharply in 2023 and 2024. The result was that the naira fell by 49 per cent against the US dollar in 2023 and another 41 per cent in 2024. 'Even using the new series, currency devaluations in 2023 and 2024 mean that Nigeria's economy has not recovered its previous position as Africa's largest economy,' a note by research firm BMI, a part of the Fitch Group, said on July 23. The GDP rebasing also brought into spotlight changes in the Nigerian economy that will not make for happy reading. One, the share of agriculture in the country's GDP had increased to almost 26 per cent in 2019 from 22 per cent estimated earlier, while that of industry declined sharply to 21 per cent from 27.65 per cent. Two, the contribution of the informal sector to the GDP has increased to 42.5 per cent from 41.4 per cent. And while a larger GDP has helped reduce the debt-to-GDP ratio to 38 per cent from 51 per cent, it does little change the outlook for Nigeria, whose GDP grew 3.13 per cent year-on-year in the first quarter of 2025, data released on July 21 showed. A day later, the Central Bank of Nigeria's Monetary Policy Committee left the Monetary Policy Rate unchanged at 27.5 per cent. Headline retail inflation, which declined for the third straight month in June, remains above 20 per cent. 'Long-running issues that have plagued sectors like agriculture from insecurity to climate risk remain. And President Tinubu's ambitious 6 per cent per annum target will require significant improvements in human capital levels as well reforms to help lift the persistently low investment rate. And while the rebasing exercise may have helped to lower the debt-to-GDP ratio, the government's revenue-generating capacity and capacity to repay the debt hasn't changed. Fiscal discipline and tax reforms are still needed to keep public finance risks in check,' David Omojomolo, Capital Economics' Africa Economist, said on July 22. The Indian experience India, of course, is no stranger to GDP revisions; in fact, the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI) is currently in the process of updating the GDP base year to 2022-23 from 2011-12. The rebased GDP numbers will be released in February 2026. The last time India's key macroeconomic indicator underwent a major revision was in 2015, when questions were raised about the accuracy of the numbers even by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) after the GDP growth rate for 2013-14 was initially revised upwards to 6.9 per cent from 4.7 per cent, prompting Raghuram Rajan – then the governor – to comment that the Indian central bank found it 'hard to see the economy as rollicking in 2013-2014'. As per latest IMF data, India's nominal GDP in 2024 in US dollar terms was $3.91 trillion, putting it in the fifth spot in the world, just $117 billion behind Japan in fourth. Siddharth Upasani is a Deputy Associate Editor with The Indian Express. He reports primarily on data and the economy, looking for trends and changes in the former which paint a picture of the latter. Before The Indian Express, he worked at Moneycontrol and financial newswire Informist (previously called Cogencis). Outside of work, sports, fantasy football, and graphic novels keep him busy. ... Read More
Yahoo
3 days ago
- Business
- Yahoo
China's industrial profits fall 1.8% in first half
BEIJING (Reuters) -Profits at China's industrial firms dropped 1.8% in the first half of 2025 from the corresponding period last year, official data showed on Sunday. The slide followed a decline of 1.1% in the period from January to May, according to National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) data. Industrial profit numbers cover firms with annual revenue of at least 20 million yuan ($2.79 million) from their main operations. ($1=7.1561 Chinese yuan renminbi) Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Reuters
3 days ago
- Business
- Reuters
China's industrial profits fall 1.8% in first half
BEIJING, July 27 (Reuters) - Profits at China's industrial firms dropped 1.8% in the first half of 2025 from the corresponding period last year, official data showed on Sunday. The slide followed a decline of 1.1% in the period from January to May, according to National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) data. Industrial profit numbers cover firms with annual revenue of at least 20 million yuan ($2.79 million) from their main operations. ($1=7.1561 Chinese yuan renminbi)
Time of India
4 days ago
- Business
- Time of India
Centre: Import duty on apples 50%, no proposal received for hike in tariff
Shimla: As apple growers from Himachal and other apple-growing states have been clamouring for a hike in the import duty of the fruit for the last few years, Union MoS (commerce and industry) Jitin Prasada informed the Rajya Sabha Friday that the ministry has not received any such proposal to date. Tired of too many ads? go ad free now "The import duty on apples is 50% in India," he told the House in response to a question from Himachal MP Harsh Mahajan (BJP) during the ongoing monsoon session of Parliament. Himachal contributes nearly 25% to the country's annual apple production, amounting to about 6.5 lakh metric tonnes, which is valued at approximately Rs 5,000 crore. Himachal BJP spokesperson Chetan Singh Bragta had claimed on July 4 that the Centre had hiked the minimum import price of apples from Rs 50 to Rs 80 per kg. Bragta had said the revised price came into effect following an approval from Union agriculture minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan. However, Prasada informed the Rajya Sabha that to protect the interests of apple farmers, there is a minimum import price (MIP) of Rs 50 per kg for the import of apples in India. The Union minister said in the US, the import duty on apples is 0% for normal trade relations (NTR) countries, which includes India. "In addition to the above, the apples coming from Iran, Turkey, and the US have a landed cost above the minimum import price of Rs 50/kg. The import price of apples from Turkey is Rs 66.16/kg, Iran is Rs 51.62/kg, and that from the US is Rs 82.99/kg during 2024-25 FY," Prasada said. The Union minister added that the govt has implemented a nutrient-based subsidy (NBS) policy with effect from April 1, 2010, for phosphatic and potassic (P&K) fertilisers. Under the policy, a fixed amount of subsidy, decided on an annual or bi-annual basis, is provided on notified P&K fertilisers depending on their nutrient content. Under the NBS scheme, the maximum retail price (MRP) is fixed by fertiliser companies as per market dynamics at a reasonable level, which is monitored by the central govt, he added.
India.com
6 days ago
- Business
- India.com
Nigeria's Economy Swells Overnight After GDP Update – But What's Really Behind It?
New Delhi: It is not a magic, but it might look like it. Nigeria's economy just expanded by nearly a third on paper. The sudden growth did not come from a surge in exports or an oil windfall. It came from a long-overdue recalculation of how the country measures its Gross Domestic Product (GDP). After more than a decade, Nigeria's National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) has finally updated the base year it uses for its GDP figures, moving it from 2010 to 2019. The result? The official size of Nigeria's economy has jumped by around 30%, from $187.76 billion to $244 billion. That change has pushed the country's GDP to 372.82 trillion in local currency (naira). This recalibration is not a local event. It is significant for a continent where economic data is often outdated or incomplete. In Africa's economic rankings, the shift places Nigeria as the fourth-largest economy, behind South Africa, Egypt and Algeria. So What Changed? What prompted this major statistical shift? In simple terms, Nigeria updated its economic model to reflect changes in its economy over the past decade. The old base year did not account for entire sectors that now drive modern life, which has digital services, pensions and the informal labour force that employs the majority of Nigerians. 'It is the most comprehensive rebasing we have ever done. We are now measuring digital activity, pension fund administration and informal work, which over 90% of our population is part of,' said Adeyemi Adeniran, the head of the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), during a press briefing in Abuja. Economist Michael Famoroti from Lagos-based Stears described the timing as 'necessary'. The rebasing, according to him, offers a clearer image of how Nigeria's economy has evolved. 'The structure is shifting. Agriculture still leads the pack in terms of output, and oil now contributes barely 5%,' he said. Benefits and Cautions More than numbers, it is about perception. One of the biggest side effects of the rebasing is a healthier-looking debt-to-GDP ratio. Before the change, Nigeria's public debt stood at 52% of the GDP. Now, it sits around 40%, right in line with the government's self-imposed threshold and below the 55% limit generally advised by the World Bank and International Monetary Fund (IMF). On paper, this is good news. But experts warn it could give a false sense of security. 'The improved ratio may make the government feel more comfortable taking on more debt. But the underlying issues have not disappeared. The debt is still there,' Famoroti said. Currency Struggles, Economic Realities While the updated GDP figure is a statistical win, Nigeria's currency tells a different story. Since President Bola Tinubu adjusted the exchange rate last year to attract investment and reflect market reality, the naira has lost over 70% of its value against the U.S. dollar. This devaluation cost Nigeria its title as Africa's largest economy in 2023. While helpful, the rebasing has not been enough to reclaim the top spot. Senegal Eyes Similar Move Amid Debt Woes Nigeria is not alone in revisiting its economic metrics. Last week, Senegal's finance ministry said it would also rebase its GDP for the first time since 2018. The announcement comes amid a financial scandal involving hidden debts that may exceed the country's current economic size. Bank of America analysts highlighted that, just like Nigeria, a rebasing could help improve Senegal's debt-to-GDP ratio and investor confidence provided the underlying economic performance stays strong. Since the announcement, Senegal's dollar bonds have shown signs of recovery. Still, the IMF has paused a planned bailout as it waits for the results of an investigation into billions of dollars in misreported debt. How Recalculation Works, And Why It Matters Think of GDP rebasing like updating a scale. If you measured your height with a stick from 10 years ago, you would miss some growth. Nigeria simply swapped out its 2010 measuring stick for a more recent 2019 version. To explain this, let us use a local example. Imagine tomatoes cost 5 naira per kilo in 2010 and 20 naira in 2020. Using 2010 as the base year, prices appear to have jumped 4x. But if you base it on 2015, when tomatoes cost 8 naira, then the price increase is just 2.5x. The shift in perspective can dramatically change how economic growth looks on paper. That is exactly what Nigeria did. By changing the base year, it removed several tough years from the calculation, years when the economy was under pressure. Now, the revised GDP reflects newer and faster-growing sectors and shows an economy that is broader and more modern. Nigeria's GDP rebasing gives the country a larger economy, stronger debt profile and a more accurate view of its current structure. But while the new numbers offer some relief, they do not erase the deeper challenges, ranging from currency instability to rising debt, that still demand careful attention.
